expected now we see such a period of anabiosis closely, but it is not quite anabiosis because it is already possible to state some problems that arise in our enemies of the russian occupying forces, namely, problems with the logistical supply of ammunition for some types of equipment for example , it is known that the russian command received and received access to some storage warehouses or supplies on the territory of belarus, that is, ammunition is exported from belarus to the territory of russia and sent to the temporarily occupied territories ukraine because they already lack the supply of ammunition from warehouses directly near the border with ukraine. that is, we mean the kursk region , rostov region ,

belohorod region, and others. of the same from belarus, they have now also started exporting artillery, for example, two s9 and hyacinth b and other howitzers and self-propelled artillery installations, what does this say? is that also ending in russia? what did she have, well, a lot, namely artillery from the time of the soviet union, but we state this, that is, we can draw conclusions that things are really not going well for them now, and in the future it can only get worse and worse, and this was an assumption, by the way i read it in cooper's book, an austrian such an amateur commentator, but who has also been closely following various wars for a long time and is the author of books. he says that for some reason we are quite without a critical perception of numbers from the very beginning, general numbers of the presence of russian artillery. he says that why should

we not believe that, for example, many of these figures are exaggerated, that much of the equipment that is declared is in fact unsuitable for fighting or simply does not even exist, well, why did we perceive it that way? the experience that is available during er-e six months of almost a full-scale war that really a-a and the information that er-e was published in open sources. for example, some analysts regarding the a-a capabilities of the russian army, the number of russian army, tanks, air force, aviation, etc. well, they are actually much, much overestimated because, for example, back in march, in russia, such a massive process of removing from storage and conservation warehouses, for example, tanks, came into question specifically about the t-72 and t-80 tanks. the time was not yet and

according to the general staff of the armed forces of ukraine , not even a thousand tanks of the russian occupation forces had been destroyed, although it was known about the beginning according to open sources before the beginning of a full-scale invasion of ukraine in they had 2,700 combat-ready tanks of the t-72 b3 and 80 bvm modifications, as well as the t-90 and other modifications, well, that is, if you have not even half of the tanks destroyed yet, why do you remove and send tanks to the combat zone even without dynamic protection? then already on er already somewhere around may, we saw how they removed from conservation t-62 tanks that have not been produced since 1975 , well, that says a lot, for example. so, the number of tanks they had was significantly overestimated. putin showed off in 2021 that they have 2,000 uavs

army but when it was officially destroyed well, again, according to the data of the general staff of the armed forces of ukraine , approximately 400 russian occupiers were destroyed, and it became known that they were renting uavs in the same border border guards in the fsb. about the so-called ministry of emergency situations of russia , that is, in other structures of the power structures that have had drinks, that is, that 2,000 have ended, although even this is not yet a quarter of the number that putin boasted about. and now we see that and with their aviation is not so good that in fact they are actually capable of much less aviation than they claimed

in almost every position. from which directions, well, it’s that today i don’t see any sense in sending a group of troops to the temporarily occupied crimean peninsula, which held defense there, for example . the occupied crimean peninsula is a threat that, first of all, there is a need to engage in anti- aircraft defense, and not to increase the number of troops, and besides, their main task today is to hold the right bank of the kherson region and, in particular, to strengthen defense on the left

bank of the kherson region and in the zaporizhzhia region, that is, the defense of this bridgehead is the main one for them, because until the right-bank part of the kherson region is liberated, the left-bank and zaporizhzhia region is considered a threat for the peninsula, then to increase the number of occupation troops there for the russians. well, i don't see such a threat. the liberation of the southern bridgehead itself should already be the signal that well, in fact, a gesture of goodwill should be demonstrated. and we understand that they will not do it. so when will it start control of offensive actions already on the left bank of the kherson region, then they will already take their units to the temporarily occupied crimean peninsula. and what will be the increased increase of this e-e group of troops directly on i don't see the point of the peninsula itself. i don't see the point. please tell me what to expect

there on independence day. can the russians actually surprise us with something? will it be some kind of, for example, terrorist, some especially cynical missile attacks, for example, on ukrainian cities, you know the surprise they can't give you anything because we know very well how much they hurt me, and therefore you can expect anything. the most cynical strikes. this is true with the use of missile weapons. now we can state that near our borders, on the russian side, this is the belarusian region, the kursk region, on the belarusian side, it is primarily such an object as the gillnet, and in the temporarily occupied territories of the south, the concentration of a large number of rockets and ammunition to such complexes, about 300, which are currently used by the russian

occupiers for the shelling of our settlements, cities, towns, and so on, and therefore it cannot be ruled out that it is precisely these complexes. borders from all over russia, and they will be used exactly on august 24. well, of course, it’s sick, sick . imitation of offensive actions cannot be ruled out that it will be the greatest aggravation precisely on the donbas bridgehead and also on the right bank of the kherson region, that is, it may be in the mykolaiv direction or in the kryvyi rih and zaporizhia regions, but after all, they now have more opportunities

to simulate offensive actions specifically in the mykolaiv direction, and also, these are missile attacks at the expense of air-based and sea -based missiles. that is, they can carry out this comprehensively, let's say a dobutyrora. and although it is not excluded that even on the eve of the independence day, they can start terrorizing ukraine with these strikes, although in general, again, ah- ah , won't you surprise us all? by air raid, well, margarita hemonyan, after the explosion of dugin's daughter, says that kyiv is healthy, it is already trying to prepare us for something in this context, what they can use. for example, if we say for kyiv, they can use an x-47 dagger in kyiv. thank you, mr. oleksandr , oleksandr kovalenko, military the expert was in touch with us

, returning briefly to the topic of usyk andriiv. he said that onufry is the father of a peaceful orthodox ukraine. this was before the time when the invaders came to usyk's house in vorzel and there traveled in tanks, but onufriy himself has already spoken today, information appeared about what he said to the prisoners of war that god protected you all the people who are on the battlefield, dear onufriy, let's watch the film together, which is shown 10 days of independence from the beginning to at the end of the day, we ukrainians have a problem with memory, a bit of a historical one. moreover, let 's still remember who who said what when and how they did it. watch this film, accept it and you will know how it was in the old days that even being a catholic is simple enough know creed but to understand it, that's the minimum for a ukrainian,

let's see 10 days of independence, i accepted this story to feel for ukrainians, you are a ukrainian, hello, my name is volodymyr vyatrovych, i am a historian, and this is a project of 10 days of independence, why did 10 happen, so that our path to freedom during the last 100 years has been winding i believe that understanding the turning points on this path is the key to a common future, so i invite you to experience these historical events with me and see them through the eyes of the participants. we have already mentioned the words of the american the political scientist zamenyunskyi that the declaration of independence of ukraine was the first nail in the door of

the soviet union, the referendum on ukrainian independence was the last, why the results of this public expression of the will of the ukrainians became so important that they led to the greatest times of the second world war, geopolitical courts, who and why was this referendum needed at all, the second question looks like today it’s a little strange, the truth is that without a referendum at all, how did we need it, but in 1991, everything was not so obvious. imagine in august of that year, the verkhovna rada of the then ukrainian soviet socialist republic had just adopted the act of declaration of independence. this

was a great victory for the national democracies, who were able to take advantage of the moment while the communist majority was recovering from the defeat of the pro-khite in moscow, and at that time, the leader of the opposition faction , physicist ihor yukhnovsky, began to promote among his colleagues the idea of ​​a national referendum it was a risky step, the first reaction of the majority of the people's council was critical and even negative very quickly already in the evening of that day, yakhnovsky managed to convince us all that this is the right thing for this year. when ukraine declared independence, it was a powerful blow to the empire, which was already cracking at the seams, but in moscow they did not lose hope to save the union from disintegration on the side of the leadership of the ussr . several worked first of all, external factors, although ukraine declared itself an independent republic, but not a single country, not even its baltic neighbors,

recognized it. there could be many reasons for this. ukraine looked unpredictable, potentially unstable . divided along religious and linguistic lines along historical borders, ukraine could choose the path of totalitarianism, let me remind you that the communists remained in power at the time and at the same time, one of the largest arsenals of nuclear weapons in the world was located on ukrainian territory. on august 1, 1991, the ukrainian parliament was visited by an honored guest, the president of the united states, george bush sr. he called on the deputies to give up their aspirations for independence, this speech went down in history with the humorous name of chikenki sich kotsata, in kyivan, this is how she was baptized the new york times newspaper, which accused president bush of short-sightedness, sambush later admitted in

his memoirs that he was very afraid of a repetition of the yugoslav scenario in the ussr and supported gorbachev, who tried to prevent the collapse of the last empire . we need to tighten our belt. that we received from the american allies, and it was so painful for us. as in real life, because the former's words about suicidal nationalism, about the need to preserve the soviet union, these were all good words, but we i perfectly understand the main reason why he says this, he was only concerned about nuclear weapons and the control over nuclear weapons, part of which was in ukraine. in fact, before the invasion of ukraine, bush received a secret report. this movement considered four possible options for the future of the ussr. in three forecasts , ukraine would remain together with moscow even if the baltic republics seceded, and only one of

them, the last one, predicted the complete disintegration of the union, which its strategist considered catastrophic and recommended to do everything to avoid it, therefore, as we can see, the new ukrainian republic had no external support. and if gorbachev did not abandon the hope of preserving the union internally, he bet on the signing of a new union treaty . at the same time, six republics - lithuania, latvia, estonia, georgia, moldova and armenia - refused even to hold talks on this topic in march 1991 in 9 republics participants of the novorossiysk process held referendums for the preservation of the ussr in ukraine, 70% voted for it."

proposed a so-called republican referendum, where the difference was whether you support the renewed soviet union on the basis of the declaration on state sovereignty of ukraine, and the people of galicia, on the initiative of chornovol, added a third poll, which was not a pure referendum, but

was conducted only in three western regions , all these were stages of e- e maturing of ukraine maturing of the verkhovna rada and these were the stages which in ultimately led to a real referendum, which took place only on december 1 of the same year, and now let's take another look at the situation in 1991 before the independence referendum. the communist party, the nomenclature elite led by kravchuk, advocates for the preservation of the union and only wants autonomous rights for itself."

the first component of this storm was the economy, which went into a steep pique in the year from 1990 to 1991. the gross domestic product, the sum of all manufactured goods and services, fell by 11% in the ussr. but this number cannot convey the scale of the disaster the eternal problem of soviet trade, the deficit became simply unbearable at enterprises that still belonged to the state, but it is no longer known who issued coupons for products and industrial goods without them , it was problematic to buy anything, shops were met with empty windows, and the delivery of goods , starting with bread and milk, instantly gathered long queues buyers suffered the most from the industrial east. i am in the middle of the city

, a slavic city from which the russian occupation of the donetsk and luhansk regions began in 2014. today this may be surprising, but long before war in the early 1990s, among the voices that demanded independence for ukraine, one of the loudest and most visible voices of this region was the voice of donbass in the spring of 1991. massive miners' strikes covered almost half of the industry. it was simply impossible to buy anything with that money, the miners' discontent was well heard in kyiv, where did the strikers go to the meetings, in addition to economic demands, they advocated independence, and that's why on at that time, ukraine ranked second in the ussr in terms of production volumes, and its gdp, according to approximate

estimates, exceeded the then indicators of singapore and israel, and so the opinion took root among the population that it is worth separating from the union, stop feeding it and the country. the living irony was that later the same rhetoric about donbas, which feeds the country, but kyiv returned. as soon as it became the capital of an independent state, and then it was done as it is today, the move would now be called technology, a leaflet was issued by the people's movement of ukraine. it was probably the best postcard that i remember in general from the point of view of such campaign material. there was a study by deutsche bank that told how much ukraine produces and the economic potential of ukraine at that time was estimated as almost the fifth. in europe, it was mass- produced and we spread it everywhere. whenever we could, and it worked so clearly that we are so rich, and the soviet union and the communist party

took it all away, and if we become independent, it will all be possible to turn it to the benefit of ukrainian people that it worked in the south-east of ukraine well, it’s just magical because there, after all, they voted more with their stomachs and material well- being, while western ukraine galicia and kyiv voted more for ideological reasons, the awakening of national self-awareness became the second factor that contributed to the fall of the soviets in in ukraine, it was a minority movement, but an active, motivated minority that was able to ignite even those who were only interested in the price of sausage and its presence on the counters, and this process well illustrates the widespread the spread of the blue-yellow flag of the ukrainian people's republic is still unofficial and prohibited over official state institutions, first we were residents of

stryi, a place in lviv oblast, a blue-yellow fan washed over the town hall here on march 14, 1990, and on july 24 of the same year, the ukrainian flag was raised over the kyiv city administration despite the protests of the communists, the head of the kmda at the time, even questioned him with a heart attack, today it is difficult to establish exactly when the blue-yellow flag was first raised in donbas, according to one version, it happened right here in slovyansk, local activists recount that as soon as they heard on the radio that the ukrainian flag had been raised above the kyiv city council, they immediately went to the mayor to ask him to raise the slavic flag, but they did not receive permission, so they did it themselves, attached it to the mast and raised it to the sky on the same day as in kyiv on the second day, the national flag of ukraine was raised over the slavic city council in the summer of 2014, when the ukrainian army regained control

over the city, knocking out the occupiers , returning to the 90s, we have to remember one more the factor of the third component of the perfect storm of the return of the national church was held in kyiv in june 1990. in june 1990, a council of the ukrainian autocephalous orthodox church was held in kyiv, until then banned by the patriarch. metropolitan mstislav was elected, although he was elected in absentia. a symbol of the struggle for independence and the legacy of the unr established by the new ukrainian republic, the master in western

ukraine triumphantly returned from the underground the greek catholic church in september 1989, the soviet authorities were preparing pompeii to celebrate the 50th anniversary of the occupation of western ukrainian lands by the red army, but their plans were canceled by a demonstration of 300,000 believers of the banned church, this event was broadcast by tv channels of various countries, troops and tanks swore to lviv, but the communists did not they dared to storm, they retreated before the scale of events. a few days after this manifestation, the then head of soviet ukraine, shcherbytsky, resigned. together with him , the era of soviet domination was ending, and i am very i remember well how we gathered in the center on the basement street and when a huge procession moved down the current street in listopadovoy china to the

yura cathedral, it was such a large-scale impressive phenomenon that i personally say that there are more majestic manifestations over all the years that handed over the place to independence but this was not the case, and it shocked even the organizers themselves . everyone there experienced a colossal moment of elation, and a serious understanding came that we can win on the eve of the ukrainian referendum on november 30. the american president george bush called gorbachev and said that according to all indications, ukrainians would vote for independence and that the us would have no choice but to recognize ukraine as a new independent state on the world map. gorbachev understood that this was the end of december 1, the voting began. it was actually massive, the turnout reached almost 85%. people were queuing up again, but no longer for products. and in front of the ballot boxes

, we already saw that public opinion was massively inclined to vote for independence, and we were sure that it would be 2/3, but we did not think that 90% didn't think so, and the problem is that many factors came together and i already said that weakness in russia is forbidden . the vote for independence was a legitimization of his own presidential position, the coincidence of all these factors of all three, four or even five students and gave such an impressive result even here in donetsk region, 83% of the people who came to the election voted for independence precinct, even in crimea, the level of support for independence is the lowest, so the ukrainian state was told by more than half of the voters at the same time as the

referendum on that day, and the first presidential elections in the history of independent ukraine were held by leonid kravchuk, a former communist at that time, having already gained more than 60% of the votes in the first round, 23% took former political prisoner vyacheslav chornovil today, it is interesting to compare their pre-election programs, here is chornovil on several pages , a detailed plan of priority reforms, many of which are still not completed in ukraine 30 years later and this is kravchuk's short program, the so-called 5d prosperity, democracy, statehood, spirituality, trust , there are no specifics here, instead, there is a set of phrases about the social economy that works for a person, about the harmony of prosperity and happiness, it is not even about populism, but about what kravchuk had greater organizational support and he was simply more convenient for the majority of the infantile

population of ukraine, which actually leaned towards independence because the soviet union collapsed and chornovil took the same 25% who voted for the people's movement of ukraine 8 in the 90th year and we had almost 25% of deputies in the verkhovna rada of ukraine, that is, at that time, the active passionate part that supported the independence of ukraine was one quarter . on the second day after the referendum, without waiting for the announcement of the official results, poland was recognized in ukraine and canada the next day hungary then lithuania latvia russia bulgaria slovenia and three dozen countries and the united states december 8 near brest president of ukraine leonid kravchuk president of russia boris yeltsin and chairman stanislav shushkevich of the verkhovna rada of belarus signed the famous belovezhsky agreement, which put an end to the existence of the ussr, we were not the first in this

fight against the totalitarian monster that was the soviet union, let the poles, czechs, hungarians, germans argue about this primacy, but without us, without our contribution, this monster would never have existed finally overthrown