not one century and we knew that independence is paid for by brave, talented, hardworking people who love their relatives and their land, the people of ukraine , the army, the heart, independence, we drink, we are independent because we

value the life of every ukrainian. wild nature cossack the first channel of resistance the strength of the unconquered oh in ukraine and volunteers everything is possible death to the enemies ukraine everything will find everyone feed all the tails will be saved they will be presented to airplanes collect doctors help lullabies

sing foresters equip everyone hug glory to ukraine to the whole world ukraine is glorified to the volunteer kind there is no translation all ukraine thanks you we will intercept the defeat we will win that you are not news together we are strong this is the island of taiwan, approximately 8 thousand kilometers from ukraine and with an area of ​​slightly more than 5 % of the territory of our country, but it is here that in the near future we can start a full-scale third world war at any moment, and we need to deal with this topic with you night watch 1+1 and working in the studio natalya ostrovska yevhen kuksin stas yasynskyi i am yevhen plinskyi and our

invited guest is a journalist international member of the board of the ukrainian association of chinese studies oleksiy koval well, i think that with this person we will definitely be able to understand the history of china, the history of taiwan, etc. uh, we welcome you to our broadcast, oleksiy, the first question is whether we are overestimating the events surrounding taiwan when we talk about the possibility of a real third world war. well, let me, i would immediately divide here two topics who often confuse, firstly, taiwan itself and the visit of pilosi, which is happening now, the visit of taiwan has begun, and we believe that you and we are ukraine , and most parts of the world recognize taiwan as part of china, and even the united states recognize that taiwan as a separate state does not exist because no less, taiwan has never in the modern history of china been under the control of great china, let's say communist china. that is, after the second world war, all the

nationalists who dominated china until then fled, created their own government there and uh the communist forces that conquered the entire mainland , let's say china, they couldn't cross over, they wouldn't be able to, and that's how, in fact, there was one china where there are two regimes, but in one greater china, mainland china has the communist party ruling. and in taiwan, as it were, the previous government remained which was pre-communist, which actually lost the chinese civil war, but it retained its position on this territory, and with the help of the americans, the chinese were unable to take this island under their control and already over this territory has existed for 70 years and it is not controlled. so if it were self-governing, yes , we can manage it. there are different parties there. at first there was the kuomintang, it is the nationalists, now

the democrats are in power, who are just advocating for greater independence of this island, and the conflict if we say uh, first of all, yes then it can happen and the chinese clearly said about it, it will start a conflict and start a war if the island declares its independence. that is, it is not connected in principle with the actions of the united states, that is, the island is called but they call themselves the republic of china correctly this is the previous name in general, well, that is, it will be that they consider themselves chinese only chinese and look here too. an interesting story because in the 70 years of existence on this island, some taiwanese begin to consider themselves taiwanese and they said that an identity was born separately , that is, they are of course chinese, but they are special china, what is there to compare the history of the northern half with south korea, this is a similar situation, in my opinion

, it is actually similar because china, like korea, is the second country in asia that remained divided in fact, that is, from the point of view of communist china, the chinese say that the biggest problem is why our nation is not a single chinese nation, because taiwan exists, that is, that is why and when we will unite taiwan, but still, china has always insisted that it wants to unite peacefully , then the entire chinese nation will come together and then there will be no problem with this, that is, this is the position of the communist, let's say china officially, why actually the united states recognizes it in fact well, not legally, but in fact it recognizes taiwan is such a territory. although they cannot announce it and they support the armed forces in taiwan, this is also a consequence of these historical events, because they began to support taiwan from the very beginning. the americans also went over

thanks to the american aviation and the american fleet that then in the last century taiwan managed to defend itself from being taken over by communist troops and from that period military cooperation actually began. if we say very clearly what distinguishes us from taiwan, for example, it is the fact that the taiwanese already have american planes and american missile systems and they themselves can close the sky if they need to, yes, that is, but really the potentials are also not equal, that is, if we know that taiwan lives 4 million people in total and the chinese are 1.5 billion and he has an army of 2 million yes even official without mobilization it is clear that uh taiwan he is watching our events very much right now because it is ukraine that gives him an example when it is relatively small yes army although it is already a big enemy and so relatively yes although now we already have the advice of a million people, but

er, that is, taiwan sees precisely in those events what is happening now between in the war between russia and ukraine, he sees for himself and learns the lessons, let's say that we can to make this flexible defense or some such chips that would allow, let's say, to break this big mass. yes, he and taiwan also have their own advantages, i'm saying that it is first of all a large strait with a width of 180 km, that is, if the war starts, it will start with of what is needed today overcoming this will be the first task, and by the way , it can be said that ukraine actually helped china, that is, ukraine actually created the amphibious forces of the naval amphibious forces because we provided them even during the yanukovych period. for example, we provided and sold to china the technology for the production of these amphibious amphibious ships on e-e, the

technology was produced in these e-e ships bison on m-m air cushions, this technology was just transferred to china by ukraine, and china was very pleased that it now has such high-speed amphibious ships as through how- which were not aimed specifically at the rapid landing of troops, amphibious floating equipment , a lot of it can be inserted and tanks can be overturned and everything, that is, in fact, everything that china you can say that everything that china has done in the last 10 years in terms of its military construction, it was all aimed at seizing taiwan, you can say so , that is, the entire fleet, we know that a month ago china launched the third aircraft carrier, everything is being done in order to move the borders of defense from the chinese coast to taiwan and for taiwan to become already such a zone of inaccessibility for the american troops.

that is, why did the americans now send their aircraft carrier also to break through to show that no, we do not agree with this, that we can also sail to the taiwanese, and here, here, and here, the second, to end what is the war, if we are talking about the world war it can start not because of taiwan. and it can start with the confrontation of the army of china and the united states through time, this is what they talk about when they talk about it, that is, in order to attack taiwan, it should only be the declaration of independence and ivan, what not is happening because they have to bring a referendum there to approve its wonderful process and a war can break out precisely because of the opposition of the united states and china through taiwan, but on the other hand why are you the same now it can be a favorable situation these callers say that in september there will be a congress of the communist party and there is dissatisfaction with regard to his policy, the economic downturn in china is unprecedented, that is, covid, and today's situation, military tension, it is still traditional, because military exercises have not been held for the

first year continuously, or is this a new situation and it is unique partly it is new partly i would understand why because i will tell you why because well, how about you this thesis about the possibility of its military solution to the taiwan issue china said a long time ago but really the situation has changed and it has also changed because of us because you used to understand china never has not fought since 1979 when he attacked vietnam and lost strangely yes but before that vietnam as we know defeated the american army during the war so it was easy for him to defeat relatively easily the chinese army which was and more numerous and so on, but after this incident, china has never, that is, almost how many there are 50-40 for more than 40 years, they have never fought with anyone outside their borders in the last 20 years, china is modernizing its army and it is completely different from the army that existed before the year 2000 of course and this problem is exactly ours yes why is it also combined with us that uh,

in this operation to seize crimea from russia in the 14th year , it gave reasons to some i jump hawks in china to say oh, we are exactly the same yes this is a model yes this there will be a bloodless quick silent operation we can do the same, now everything is turning to the mountain again bit by bit and we showed them that nothing like this will be impossible again bloody my seva will happen and the americans here are saying the same thing and today you heard the same statement from european leaders that it will be such a scenario again in in ukraine, you are attacking taiwan, a coalition is being created, the americans have already said that we will directly send our troops, it will not even be like with ukraine. that is, the americans will fight directly there and it will all be a completely different situation and of course, in these situations, it’s not very common to want to start a third world war instead, it’s really uh, you can’t understand that the parties have come to such a situation. the usa, i mean,

china has also come to such a situation that neither side can retreat . to the allies in the region, not only taiwan, but japan and other countries, by creating i, you know, they created aux e-e quartet, which are all created in order to surround china, and china can not give in, so they are on the eve of the 20th the congress of the party is a very important event that takes place once every 5 years congresses i mean sizinpin at this congress he will do things and that is, he will, as it were , say the uniqueness of this congress that he will be re-elected for a third term on a third term, no chinese politician in the last 30 years has not run, he has worked for 10 years and that's it. and now xi jinping really needs to announce some new super-edition at this congress, because the congress usually plans for 5-10 years, that is, in fact, this

there will be a new tribune for him in order to point at putin and think, don’t i need to ? little a-a war is victorious, how was crimea in the 14th year and applause from the chinese people that this is the leader that we need so so look sensipi never copied anyone let’s say that yes yes that is he came to power in the 12th year and with his own contrivances, yes, that is, he did not need to be a tough leader for china, let's put it this way. well, he does not have an army. we will all be loyal there, yes. and now, yes. putin's idea yes, putin is a strong politician well, how about him the chinese see. i mean, this idea is conquering many minds, yes. if you say in china, and they see, why is our politician not like that, can he slam his fist and say attack the united states, well, i think that everyone is zinping this is also a very difficult

choice for him, because of all the recent conversations. i don't see that he is ready to play such a role, you understand. putin also grew gradually over 20 years. putin is a friend, you are a friend, comrades, brother. well, they are friends, they met 30 times. that's it. most the most politicians who meet most of the time er more often he said already during the war what should be said on the second day after the start of the war the invasion of russian er by sisinpin called putin and asked him to start negotiations er and that ’s when the negotiations began well, you know that they led to nowhere, that is, russia started with ultimatums , but the very fact that sisinpin called and asked, yes , this shows that, but as i say, there is such an example, i can tell you it is very cool, when was the first meeting between putin and sisinpin, then according to the chinese tradition, when two

people meet, you have to wait. yes, that's right, sisinpin held his glass below the edge of putin's glass, and it showed that then he recognized if his animal and even in the chinese media then they said why did he do this, why did he show that he is a little lower in rank now, of course, he does not do this with intimacy, and when the last meeting was with putin, it was putin who went to sisinpin and sisinpin sat there and waited for him, clearly showing that it is you who is coming to me. with some there with respect and this is how their relations have changed, that is, now in fact china understands that it is number one in this situation, and here is what we would like to understand. well, we have, in fact, two main countries that do not recognize either side in russia's war against ukraine, yes, they take a neutral position, this is turkey, which declares itself as a

mediator on a large number of issues, and there is china, which does not declare anything, but on the contrary, we, you say that they are friends with putin, and china broadcasts russian news to itself on television and is feeding the chinese with russian propaganda, and we are discussing in society that china is playing its own game and has not yet made public its maps , what it wants from this war, because energy experts say that the reorientation of russian exports of oil and gas to the countries of asia can save them in the budget from the influence of european american sanctions, what kind of game is china playing today in our war, well, really, there are more such countries, i am india, indonesia, which also want to become a mediator, or is neutrality observed in some way

but you really understand china. but we don’t expect such and such steps from india, but really the situation is very interesting here. because this is really a generator that china can do something , yes, that is, china is defending itself by the fact that putin did not listen to him after the conversation about what i told you, that putin did not respond to xi jinping's call to start negotiations, china said that russia did not listen to us, we have no influence and when the first conversation between xi jinping and biden took place on march 18, then the americans and, in principle, biden broke inpino he told him eh if you are a great power if you claim some status of great then do something that also applies to you that is we are doing from our side eh and sisinpin said no we take a neutral position we will do something but it will be it's our own choice and no one should push us to some kind of yes or choice of camps

and so on. and even when i'm sorry, 140 countries vote for our resolution and china abstains. yes, you are at the un assembly, it shows very clearly and then it comes out and says here you see we her they voted abstained india also voted there were 20 african countries and here we are 30 african countries but in terms of population we are even more than the population of europe yes or from chish that is why the majority of the population supposedly shares our position such a cunning position but really there was a conversation it is also interesting to note that sisinpin did not speak for all these 150 days. zelensky is also very revealing, but he has already spoken with putin twice, for example, and there is a dialogue with ukraine at the level of foreign ministers twice already. ivan and the minister of foreign affairs of china spoke with a bullet and it was in these conversations in china that he tried, as you say, to find out or explain his position and

his position also sounds quite like that, well, it is unclear at first glance at first glance for us they he says we will not sit idly by, just as he is now in principle, we will do something, but we are still actually waiting, so what does it mean not to sit idly by and what and what does it mean practically yes. that is, we do not we can see even here turkey if you say it is does practically do something well, yes, in this matter, we we do not understand, because what can the chinese want, somewhere the chinese say there is also such an interesting phrase they say, there is a chinese proverb there is a whole story there, they say to a tiger from a tiger , whoever has to remove the bell i hung him there with such a proverb, wisdom, yes, this means that if you created a problem, then you have to solve it. that is , they say that we did not create problems in the relations between ukraine and russia, and we did not at all .

they say that putin arrived then, and they say that only he was told by the taxi zen-pin and allowed to attack ukraine to start a full-scale invasion, this is after all a reality because many ukrainians remember these words and parallels are given that since february 7, they were waiting for this meeting then these calls and look at putin. my position is like this. i don’t think that china coordinated or russia coordinated actions with china, but everyone knew about the attack from american intelligence sources, and the only thing is that many did not believe it, and some believed it during visit putin to china, what really happened there is the most important thing. in my opinion, it is that china supported russia with all its anti-nato narratives, that he said that he supported russia in the fact that nato does not take into account all the concerns of the so-called russia,

which forces it, that is, in fact, from that time until now, that is, nato has never had anything to do with china at all, you understand, and here it turns out that there are sites where, i repeat, in this joint declaration, i repeat the russian narratives that as if this event actually pushed russia into a corner, that it is reacting that america is to blame for the war, which uses ukraine as an instrument of pressure on russia or anti-russian instruments, that is, ukraine does not appear here at all. do you understand that they are in these conversations ? by russia and the west, that is, yes. that is, there is some ukrainian interest or even some ukrainian position . in general, if it gets there, it gets there with a great creak when we already say that, that is, for an ordinary chinese subjectivity there is no ukraine in this war, but for the taiwanese there is, and

for the taiwanese they are fighting in ukraine now as volunteers and they say that they are gaining such combat experience in ukraine in order to go later and be able to defend their country against the chinese army, well absolutely very solid, i apologize so i'll say a word now, uh, if we go back to start the conversation at all. why is this topic now? well, everyone is worried about it. why is everyone talking about it? yes, this is the probable fact of the war about this. well, let's talk so honestly now, on the full serious axis, the key factor is the same. so what should become a factor, so where should it start because well, logically, it is better to say what to start with. well, what they give us to understand is that the conditional chairman of the supreme council of the united states of america will fly to ukraine. the very fact of the visit is actually the same. if you

look at the last decades there, yes. well, this is quite an ordinary event, in fact, the visit of diplomats is not an ordinary one. let me agree with something with something and it may become a trigger, but not for taiwan, but wars between china and the united states you understand here you have to distinguish, it’s just hard for me to imagine how they make us understand that the board i’m sorry the speaker of the us congress can be shot down only because she decided to fly to watch i think the chinese can be and behave more cunningly they can just intercept him and they can not let him sit down to taiwan, you understand, that is, the interception takes place and the plane simply turns away to avoid a collision, but then we set a precedent in world history , roughly speaking. a kind of classification of aggression against the united states. because well, i apologize. well, then you understand. if this happens in international waters and not over taiwan

, yes, on the approach to taiwan, then there is no reason to attack taiwan. then there will be collisions in the sea between the life- carrying group that is already present there, the american one is there now, the american aircraft carrier is present there and not only more effective question is what is the interest really if china is fighting for by the united states well, we understand yes look really i think china really he thinks look china thinks that he has not yet matured to challenge the united states instead he is ready to accept the challenge that is, here you understand er, the chinese just as often say that no one he is not able to challenge us because he is already a powerful state . well, they themselves cannot challenge anyone, you understand, the chinese

. you see the provocation of the conflict, look, i can do this, you can not react to it, of course, let the vacuum cleaner sit down in taiwan, but under some pretext, you understand that if the chinese do something wrong, in my opinion, they have already inflated too much, uh, and the whole story surrounding the visit, because the visit this is unofficial. first of all, she can actually sit down to refuel and just formally meet. this will not be an official meeting, you understand. but nevertheless, this is a third party - a third party state of the united states and a person who, er, can to become president, that is, the chinese are not like that, the chinese, let’s say, so clearly combine biden with pilosi they don’t understand that pilosi in the system of the u.s. government is generally a separate character, a separate person yes she is responsible for the legislation and that is why biden very clearly said that i cannot even advise

pilosi don't go because it's a separate branch, yes, it's a separate branch of government, she decided so, she thinks it's important to support our partners, well, it's her job, it's democracy, you know, there's no phone, the new right, the president can't call to say a question, she also has congressional elections right now, where the democrats are sorry, they can lose and she needs to do something, she also needs some kind of heroic act, in fact, it is even worse, yes . socio-public opinion of us citizens so where they were asked what they would do in the event of a real military threat on the continent of america so where there is more than 50%. now, in order not to make a mistake in the numbers, the person said that they are considering the option to leave the country yes plus, we see your words and china is not ready, well, in particular, to accept

or throw these challenges so we generalize with the fact that neither china nor the usa are the largest countries in the literal sense of the word to fight. they don't want to fight, but they are doing it now. it is possible the whole world is talking about the fact that, friends, we are on the threshold of a great war, what are these actions? what is there? what are they doing deliberately? so that we make such impressions, or in fact, what kind of impression do we have? a month of impressions somewhere two years ago, two years ago, the united states officially came out with a new asian doctrine, where they clearly said that china is our main adversary and our main competitor, and the entire policy of the united states is now based on this, if it were not for the fact that we oppose china by any means, military, economic and so on and so on, is it possible for them to have some kind of understanding, yes, it is possible

, because it is, for example, the most important and the biggest trading partner for each other, that is, in the war . they are not interested, but you understand, they cannot to take a step back yes and to say that you retreated means that you are weaker in this sense for china - it is completely impossible i think that there will simply be some trick you understand, i think there will also be some trick on the part of america, that is, if the pilot decides to sit down in taiwan and on the side of china there will be some trick, they will say, well, my plane broke down there, and we helped her there, by the way, the chinese said that if she really says that their plane broke down, we will put her on the mainland to fly this plane, not in taiwan they don't do it voluntarily, that is, something will happen. well, i don't see, i don't, after all, i don't see that the third world war will start because of this, because china, for example, has only 200 or 300 nuclear warheads, compared to the thousands that the united states has and do you understand the point of starting, for example, a nuclear

war or some even local conflict with such people over taiwan, for example, with consequences such as ukraine, yes, this is for china, it makes no sense, on the contrary, if you were to talk about the advantages of china, then china, on the contrary, and uh, it is better for him to sit down now, on the contrary quietly in the sense that russia is at war and for him it is for him and he is for him it is a peaceful rear where russia can sell its ingressions, you still understand and china right now in total i ask receives cheap energy resources to him this situation