2020 yes, from the other side, we see attempts at that blackmail well, roughly speaking, by gazprom , so friends, you either buy, you earn, or goodbye , and at first everyone is in a position that no, no, we won’t buy anything, and then bam we see that one country agrees and another country agrees, and here it is actually difficult for us to summarize this whole story, because on the one hand you see that countries easily withdraw and refuse, and then again bulgaria became the first country to refuse to pay for gas in rubles, so after a while they announced that we don't need russian gas at all, we won't even have deliveries of liquefied gas to bulgaria from the united states, and today there are talks about the possibility that bulgaria will resume gas supplies with gas from the north in a single stream, yes, how is russia successfully using blackmail with these siemens turbines, they

say we cannot start them up and restore the volume of gas supplies to europe because we are hindered by the imposed sanctions and although it would seem that the turbines have already been returned, yes, they are in germany but russia, yes, and this is the most important thing. it seems to me that putin is a demon, he understands. yes, for example, the supply of oil and gas from russia to the world. yes, to other countries, this is the main supplier of money, proof of the kremlin. voluntarily and ready to reduce the amount of money that goes to russia for the supply of blue fuel, understanding the importance, the greater importance for europe of this tool, so europe refuses russian gas, and the prospect is really the same there until 2030 but the draw is going around this autumn and

around this winter of the north stream-2 he hopes to achieve this by blackmail which he is currently implementing what do you think well, it is quite likely the scenario north stream two is built yes it is filled with technical gas please open the valve friends start but take down the site this well, there's just a problem that when you play blackmail like this, for example , you have to understand that the ball goes everywhere when you throw it at the wall, it has a problem that sometimes this ball from the wall can bounce back from the bent, and so on and accidentally get in the face. for example, there are data from florenfr analytics, so they claim that russia has already reduced gas production by 37%. well, i apologize to 37%. this is quite a solid sum, yes. plus, for example, a message that there is a gas loading point nearby, well, in the same northern stream, one. so now they record that they simply

burn it, well, understanding this is an interesting moment, because it also confirms that in principle russia and putin putin's tactics it always only causes some half results maybe russia she herself is not ready to completely abandon the supply of gas in the capacity to stop it is impossible where to go all these reserves where to go this process of burning gas it is possible this indicator is actually working out in the media here this is such a public humiliation of the humiliation of the chancellor of germany who personally went to check that means well after all, in russia they worked out for the domestic audience, maybe it’s some kind of, well, in their imagination, the goal that they achieved and then they will come to some decision there in rubles, not in rubles, it’s already schemes, it’s already other people’s well let's add yuriy kovalchuk, an expert at the institute of energy strategies, to our conversation and try to find answers to these questions. in fact, putin is trying to play a game.

good evening, mr. yuriy. good evening. have you heard a little bit of our discussion ? with just such a raffle, europe can either be inclined to refuse support to ukraine, or banally simply to launch the northern stream-2 and such a public humiliation of the entire eu sanctions policy well, yes, i am debating you. at first, it is interesting, of course. see what i can say. well, i am not sitting in putin's head. i am not putin, i cannot be responsible for him, but we can, in principle, see those actions that really take place on the european gas market and are only related with sanctions, that is, there are no sanctions on gas, that is, what you mentioned under the euroruble scheme. yes, it is actually a proposal again. well, you can call it countersanctions of russia, you can definitely because it was a response to those actions in general, yes, the united states, canada, japan, australia of the european union, but it cannot be said that

there is a sanction on the gas market, that is, a restriction, that is, the decision of the european union to abandon oil, when it was an oil barge, is so partial, as we have seen, and there are reasons for this. yes, i would, yes. said that after all, well, since the end of february, that is, when the war began and at the beginning of march, in principle, they were relatively honest. well, why relations are probably honest, active statements and by the ministers of some countries, so it’s cool, i like to remember his netherlands , uh, because he said that we we cannot refuse no from oil, not from gas, that is, if it is still possible for oil, this issue can be solved with it for several years, then for gas, this issue is very inertial and must be resolved. i publicly demonstrate my weakest point by the fact that she does not discuss the sanctions policy around gas, and putin understands this and also understands that this winter, this coming winter

, she is, well, she is at the point of drawing out this whole story, well, you know, i will tell you that judging by that from the current statement of today's head of the office of president yermak that the active phase of military operations must be completed by the fall because there are problems with possible strikes on the heat energy system on the system that actually operates during the heating season well, let's say that's for sure uh, one chain, because in europe, as we have already seen, the moon is blowing, there is such a panic, yes, the panic is connected with the fact that there is a shortage of gas, it is objectively there is a lack of it in underground storages , although there is a total of 72% if you look but again after all, before the active period, it is enough there at the end of september, you still pump up to 85 percent. and in principle, they always pumped up to 100%. that is, the volume that is needed and the deficit will be related to the fact that it will have to be taken later in the winter. and where is it that is, lg supplies will be reduced, everyone is already declaring this and in the usa those

companies that also supply asian e-e qatar means arab suppliers who are currently oriented and will supply to the wrong place in principle china and south korea there it is always better to have a higher price and take greater volume of consumption in the winter and therefore, most likely, this is such a panic situation, there is a firewood crisis, hungary prohibits the export of firewood, moldova also limits firewood there. that is, you even know this is such a picture of surrealism, so the modern world is completely developed, as if everyone is worried about firewood. not about gas, and about firewood, yes, in fact, the next stage can be, let’s say, if at least there are some, well, no, sanctions restrictions, yes, no, what restrictions, yes, but, let’s say, softening, yes, weakening the station. yes, we are. we can see in the winter period, and in principle i will tell you even according to the turbines that you mentioned in the birth report, this was a softening of the sanctions . canada stepped back and made a decision regarding the 24th year, these turbines can be

repaired . did i hear something like that, as if the game is like that, someone said yes , you can of course see a certain game because, again, well, let's say so, if the turbine is really sent to germany and according to the contract, it should go to russia, here, let's say trump in hand to russia directly that they can appeal to this and accordingly use it to their advantage, and the benefit in general is really what you are asking about, of course, it is present in the sense that europe cannot get rid of its dependence on russian gas within 2, 3, 5 years, respectively, it will to return to the issue of resuming gas supplies from russia, accordingly, the issue of the possible launch of nord stream-2 in the 24th year by the way, when does the contract for the transit of gas through ukraine end? it is not far away, it is literally here a little bit two steps and all this seems like it is far away no it is very close and then the northern stream two will just completely replace the ukrainian gets eh, that is, then it will go there to the czech republic to italy there were such plans and we can see the turkish stream it

is working already today on the market. that is, south-south central europe, yes. that is, this is a problem. and it can be used, and moreover, i will tell you that europe is getting into a difficult situation because they really overslept, they will draw conclusions, well, these are late exhibitions, conclusions because they will the conclusion implies that they will go to other regions and invest in gas production, the development of deposits in the new gas pipeline, this is a very difficult moment. i can see, for example, someone over there has made a decision, cheers, they will build a gas pipeline across the sahara. who is happy about this does not even imagine how much military problems there are also that they can also be undermined and it can stop, that is the instability of the technical part of the implementation through takhara, completely through niger to algeria and beyond, and well, these are very difficult moments, and how far will it be possible to implement them, that is, gasik which will be produced, for example, in the same qatar , yes, they are already going there, preliminary contracts are being concluded there on participation in gas production, this all-in-all gives additional production of 40 billion

cubic meters, this is half of the southern park, the field is so big, and it will only be in 10 years, it will be realized i don’t think that before and these tankers need to be built, the tanker has been under construction for two years, that is, you can imagine the scale of how many tankers need to be built. to decide today and i will repeat, they will draw conclusions, they will go this way, but roughly speaking, i would say that the next 10-15 years they still see themselves together with russian gas , that is, no matter how we say, for example, some other position, and this will certainly weaken the european position because they will be like beggars, well, to put it conditionally, yes, this can of course expand the position of sanctions, which we are already seeing, i will repeat it already, and the turbines with canada are very revealing, and germany in principle their position is that this was the first signal. sorry to interrupt you. well, you can say that there is a precedent with canada, but we are still more concerned about

the situation with ukraine. there may be strikes in the fall when it will be cold, it will flow, uh, what can the authorities do and prepare for it, besides ending the war before the heating season, what can be done to prevent it? well, you know, i'm not a military man, but unfortunately, if we we all see these missile strikes, as they are not even under control, not that they are not under control, and that are not caught by proven defense systems . that is, it is a problem, and probably yermak when he says this, he means everything, first of all, that this is a risk , that we simply cannot to react, and that is why it is possible that such thoughts are heard that it is necessary to end the military phase so actively. what does he mean by this? i cannot clearly comment and say, but in terms of ensuring the actual gas resource, we can do it on our side, we do it, we pump 15 billion. that is, it is absolutely real that there has also been a decrease in gas consumption by our industry. there will

only be a weak point, the weakest, but it is not the most important. it is the cessation of the transit of russian gas . restrictions on supplies and gas and heat to multi-apartment buildings. what can the government do? well, i'll tell you, it can't do anything else. honestly, i'm telling you the way it is, that is, the opinions we hear there are mobile phones. boiler houses or how are they simply not there, these are all point point elements that can be used locally to solve some small point problems, and globally it is a non-working tool, so i agree with you here, only the end of the war can prevent the fact that our people will be affected - heat and heat mains, heat centers and power plants, but returning to global issues, and listening to your facts about the gas

relations of the european union and the russian federation in general. so you clearly made it clear that what is stated in europe's plan, so that at least until 2030 there will be no renunciation of russian gas, and on the same issue, yes, russia also understands that the europeans are in no hurry, not even that they are in no hurry, they are not planning to give up russian gas, etc. you see, russia's blackmail that we will shut off the valve to you will first of all mean that the valve will be shut off and there will be no gas, and the first case of shutting off the full gas supply to europe will also mean that this is the plan of the europeans to give up gas in 2030 it means that we are giving up on it now, so there will be a collapse. maybe a year, maybe two. well, some people say that there will be a 1.5% drop in gdp, but the fact that europe will immediately be left with russian gas means that they will no longer count on russian gas. from this complex

construction, i have a question for you , understanding this, well, it is not really profitable for putin to close this valve from europe, because as soon as he closes this valve, then at the same moment, according to the logic of things, russian gas will definitely will never go to europe again, even if he opens all the valves, this is not quite a logical thought , because look, i will explain to you that after all, the volume that we see a decrease in gas consumption in europe is present, that is, the europeans already have themselves, that is, they are closing their industrial facilities are reducing the use of gas there. of course, there is all the lighting. well, there where the gas test, for example, electricity comes as a part of there is hot water, that's all meager volumes, that's it. nothing about it , in fact, it won't give any economy, it's more the creation of this panic situation in such a way that you and i, for example, have also seen this. yes, for example, although i will repeat myself on the lives of europeans - it will not critically affect the lack of gas in winter, what putin russia sees is what, for example, europe

depends on russian gas and they use it of course it's true, but it's true even from the point of view of a businessman, you know, he's a businessman, and they actually have plans to increase gas production, their gas production is increasing, they're producing, roughly speaking 700 billion in their plans, they should reach the figure of approximately 900 billion for the future, this is already taking into account the production of gas that will be supplied to china, south korea, japan is also there, well, these are not just projects, it is as if the steps that have been taken are already being implemented, and therefore, in fact, europe for for them, this is a promising business, a promising region, they just want to keep it, and these processes that we see today are, on the contrary, an effort to tie more of europe to russian gas, to get greater benefits. let's say that in in the future, negotiations, everything, as we remember , courts, conflicts will always end in conflicts, there was already a gas cut in europe, if you remember, in 2009, the ukrainian-ukrainian-russian gas war is so well-known

that it was called that. supplies, and then there were lawsuits and even gazprom paid fines, but as a result , they sat down at the negotiating table and agreed and agreed, let’s say who, well, conditionally, let’s say. there, someone may think that the conditions are worse, but they agreed and they continued to work well, i still think that europe will draw conclusions from this situation, they will go to other regions, there are simply few of them, this is the persian gulf, african countries, partly latin america, and they will invest money there and extract it, think about the logistics, that is, the transportation of this gas, but this it still won't cover the needs of qatar, it's 40 billion gas production, well, it's a prospect, it's only a third of the gas that gazprom europe supplies today, that is, it's not even a third, it's not even 2/3, that is, what to cover the others points because what you say is that they well, let's say that they will not return to the gas market well, i wouldn't say that in europe, there is simply nowhere to get gas, it's objective, even in america today, which went out there, they have 105 billion, they extract gas powder and

that's it they export it, well, they export to us what is exported. that is, this is their limit - this is a record this year, a record, and they are supplying record volumes to the european market, partly replacing russian gas, partly because it has decreased, their gas production has decreased by 30 billion somewhere by the end of the year minus 50 will be billions even though it is not a problem. by the way, what you say is actually so that you understand, i will give you two numbers. 2020 was the year when there was a corona crisis. so the drop was set at 50 billion. also, gas that gazprom supplies on europe to europe 50 billion, if no one had noticed the loss of life, you know what they say. and in 2015 , when the economic crisis was so serious. well, there it is, because it is global, so it is economic, so compared to the 14th year, production decreased by 90 billion, and gazprom did not fueled this gas, by the way, it is certain it is a mistake to think so, they are simply technically reducing its production, closing old wells , fields, introducing new ones, waiting, more precisely, for the growth of

the economy, then introducing new ones - this is a natural process . perspective in the future , this is exactly what we are talking about with you. and what will happen next if they know that they will win? well, they think that way, so we should also understand it. i think yuriy. well, let's assume that the red lines europe refused completely, does russia have anywhere to export, even in the conditions of the fact that they are reducing production, for the domestic russian audience, they say that they say that the countries of asia, china, we will find other countries and so on, can it replace it? europe and how technologically difficult it is to rearrange gas flows in general, well, look, we often say that, you often just know, as they are taken out of context, that is, these 50 billion european gas and russian gas are

all, roughly speaking, even less than 30%, uh, of all the gas produced in russia is 700 billion and will be more, that is, accordingly, the pillow, as i said, you saw it is approximately 100 billion, that is, a 100 billion pillow. that is, it is something that can be increased or decreased, that is, in the big picture, if you say what really could happen such a situation that europe or, for example, russia would refuse to supply gas. well, that could also be the case. this is possible. factor, yes, and we can see this on the asian markets. of course, they will not be able to transfer this volume because these are other gas fields. and cordovishche and from which ones before the forecast well, let’s say that networks were designed and laid for supply to europe, by the way, this is the same as with coal mines and gas fields, this is a well-known story, such a business story, when is the pipe the client, that is, in fact, all the fields were developed

under specific customers and right away to nord stream-2 he has his own fields for a reason in the same way. by the way, we mentioned some of them. he said then that we will redirect part of the gas that should go to nord stream-2 for our internal consumption, yes. well they are pumping under the replacement reservoirs there, and they have reduced the possibility of production. but it is really a field that is intended for europe, so i have questions. i want to support your thesis, but we see that the consistency of the european union in the abolition of the softening of the elements of the sanctions policy is, as they say, well uh, before us is the opening of transit to the

kaliningrad region, yes, they pushed lithuania. yes, even if it is in the cream, let it be launched. let it flow there 24 hours a day, and it is important for me to understand whether europe can survive under these conditions. well, we talked - we talked, yes, europe exposed its flanks, showing putin that our weakest point is gas, can putin use it for that ? that we understand that for him now the most important thing is the war and to win the war, and can putin put pressure on europe in such a way that, through this gas blackmail, he can force europe not only to partially abandon some sanctions, but to start step by step to abandon support for ukraine, yes, it will be, and you will be. well, let's say ahead of the next question. well, i don't know which one i 'm joking. yes, but really, if we were talking about the question, why is there such a panic in europe? why are we seeing such cries for

help from the european union, preparing for difficult and severe winter, and others, there is also another side - this is the mood of the gas traders who work in europe, i call them such traders, you know, who are waiting for business, so that is, they are waiting for peace, that is, how we are waiting for peace, so only we we are waiting for him. they are also waiting for peace. thank you, mr. yury, experts from the institute of energy strategies were in touch with us. well, actually, friends, the problem is that we are constantly discussing some tactical stories, and here are the events in crimea, and here is how we discussed today or some there are visits, sharp statements of some american or european diplomats, but here is actually brewing. in my opinion, a huge problem is that europe understands, er, what it is. well, it may not survive this winter without russian gas, and mr. yuriy confirms that on alternative channels for the

supply of liquefied gas, they are not able to completely replace the european market. and we see how the europeans react sensitively even there to proposals, let's reduce the temperature in the batteries by a few degrees, prime minister of spain pedrasa gave up the tie and called on the spaniards to do the same in order to save on air conditioning energy. well, to turn on the air conditioner less often in germany, too. there they completely turn off public fountains in the evening period in order to save money. well, italy also forbids things that are set at 18° air conditioner so that everything goes to the preparation for a difficult difficult winter, but from which it will be also in question. to fix the supply of liquefied gas because we don't need europe to start exchanging the temperature in the batteries of europeans for the interests

of ukraine's independence. this is the most important thing for us to move on. oh, the story we wanted to discuss is the story of the pseudo-referendum . how do you see what russia is trying to play now, it doesn't seem to me to be consistent with their original plans, in fact , it's not what they're trying to do now. they've been trying to do it all the time since february 24 and maybe even the period when there were still minsk agreements, there were also such certain periods when the process was mentioned. well, actually. today, it is such a certain kaleidoscope that, uh, putin just sometimes returns to the subject of the referendum, he personally and certain heads of people. so that means, well, it shows how as a rule, this happens at a time when there are some troubles in russia at the front, that is, high-precision weapons

for today's patriotism. yes, when when they have cotton, when they say warehouses in the occupied territories, they suddenly remember that, that is, we can we hold a referendum, let's appoint, let's think, when they are preparing, it's actually very interesting, because on the 8th, a collaborator of the former psg people's deputy yogin balytskyi in the zaporizhzhia region held a so-called congress, where, of course , they brought a mass for video cameras, we will not show the remotes, but the congress was in a closed hall , that is, she was probably very carefully guarded there, and it was announced that he gave such an order, he even printed it out about the a-a-a-a order of the election commission of the zaporizhia region appointed to start the process of preparation for the referendum well,

but actually there is no date for the preparation process , that is, you know it is conditional, like, er, for example, er, when the post, when the dishes are prepared for the broadcast, you know , but you don’t want to wash the dishes at home, and you think so. well, i’ll rearrange i have two cups here and there, as it were. i have already started to prepare. on september 11, they have the only voting day in russia yes, and they planned to hold a referendum on the occupied territories on this day, but do you remember that there was melitopol on the air and he said that there was an explosion and mysterious things happening near the candidate's headquarters, but in the context of the referendum, they already refused to holding such a single day of voting, yes, they will go around the houses of the

eleventh choice of governors, that's how it is in russia. for 5 days, go to the homes of residents in the occupied territories, etc. in this way, to collect some votes in support of joining russia, people with assault rifles will come to your home and ask you for or against what you can answer. well , the results are already prepared, it does not matter what is there papers, you can do nothing, not even walk. i think that i’m just really scared for the people who are there for the people, but here we see the complete destruction of the original idea of ​​putin’s idea about this story, how did they see everything as eh but i was in kryvyi rih during zaporizhzhia, her doctor that year and because of the referendum and because of the military actions, they got stuck in the 14th year, saying that tank

columns are entering the ukrainian army is running, or surrounded by flowers, people are going and sobbing to the meeting, but it’s them are taking place and this destroys the whole concept, that is, look at almost six months of the war, almost six months for which large regional centers were captured in ukraine, only kherson , and because of that, it is already openly said that it was a betrayal in the kherson region, a betrayal of admin on the border with crimea and uh, only because of this happened uh what happened and that happened i apologize and you know in such a russian style it is obliquely crooked so that at the moment there are russian occupiers and so it is not clear the vegetables are there when they do not know what will be tomorrow when, in order to legalize the idea of ​​all and all russia - russianness

in this territory, the headquarters of putin 's party of united russia in kherson were exposed. yes, but after strange claps again, the headquarters of putin 's party closes its work in kherson and simply he is running away from there, well, a vivid example of the so-called balance. hmm, i forgot what his position is, what do people call him, er, the russians call him the head of kherson, so some say that he was poisoned. for example , he is now in the hospital. i, for example, support the version that he himself played illness to also have an excuse for how to get out of there, so the situation is actually even worse, so it is even possible. well, the russians would be happy to hold those referendums like this. because putin does not have the technical possibility. i have a very good saying. who is putin? yes, he is an old man . kegebiz with a law degree, for whom the most important thing is to write on the piece of paper that the voters supported that, that, that is, the paper means that's how it is, and how are you going to sell this piece of paper, when there is no

picture. where was this piece of paper born, and it's actually a big problem? well, and interesting symbolism, a- well, if we take september 11, well, on the 11th, but not on september, but on may 2014, there was a so-called referendum in donetsk, ah, at 11:11, balytsky's statement was made on the 8th of august, we remember the war in georgia on the 8th th season of 2008, by the way, today they say that putin loves symbolism and that he will be able to on august 11, by the way, the troops were already there near tbilisi just today and actually speaking, 22.02.2022.6 deuces is also that they only allegedly, as we already know, heard from the interview of the arresting officer that on the 23rd wanted to celebrate the day of the e-e of the russian army, so they postponed let's do the same recognition for 24 years