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by anton borkovsky naispresso greetings dear viewers, the espresso tv channel is currently broadcasting the program studio event. we will analyze the most important thing, in particular, the fact that the military campaign enters the autumn period has certain challenges not only for our army but also for the enemy from the other side , we understand that putin would like to hold a general mobilization, but something is stopping it, and of course the key question is whether the enemy will have the resources and forces to wage a so-called protracted long war. the first guest with us is already in touch - this is james sher a senior researcher at the estonian institute of foreign policy in tallinn, a well-known british expert on international politics greetings dear mr. sher, in the studio of the espresso tv channel, we understand that putin failed to achieve his strategic goals, and there is a

feeling that the russian federation will prepare for a protracted war. of course, this is a question resources is a matter of resources, both equipment and personnel, on the other hand, we understand that putin urgently needs some so-called victories, whatever he could to sell to his population and his general staff, putin's latest conversations, in particular with zolotov , show that putin has nothing that he could demonstrate, first of all, it should be noted that in the western and possibly in the ukrainian understanding, ukraine is winning in the understanding of putin, it is still not so clear, ukraine has experienced very significant territorial losses, in particular, along the black sea coast, as well as devastating economic losses due to the consequences of the establishment of the occupation regime, millions of people were deported, including over

a quarter of a million children, the economic consequences are colossal, and western aid will barely cover the minimum economic needs in the long term. at the moment, moscow is far from convinced that ukraine is on the path to victory in this war, and this should be understood. when the war started in 2014, putin firmly decided that he would either gain control over ukraine or destroy it completely , and nothing has changed since then, the war started because the minsk agreements were not fulfilled their mission and did not cause destabilization in ukraine, which the french and germans were counting on in russia, from whom they expected help, did not help, and

zelenskyi, who was considered weak and a potential puppet, instead impressed everyone and impressed even in december 2019 during a meeting in the normandy format where his speech even made putin noticeably nervous. and off-camera , surkov was hysterical even before january 21. lavrov put forward a clear ultimatum to the west: either you tame ukraine or we will do it, we didn’t go, it started countdown to a full-scale war, a few months before the war, everything indicated that a violent conflict was an inevitable moment, which directly answers your question, of course, the current leadership of moscow is determined and ready for a protracted war, if

it was short-lived, whatever the price for russia, he gave money even if only ruins remain from the russian economy, even if now the armed forces of the russian federation pay a huge price, they play until they win. as stalin said, the winners are not judged and no matter what the price, the west typically uses business criteria to evaluate national interests. russia has never done this. putin, in particular, believes that if he wins the geopolitical struggle, economic indicators will pick up by themselves. so he is ready to pay any economic price while he is in power to oppress ukraine . the russians are not investing in the destabilization of ukraine, they are focused on forcing the west to convince ukraine to make dangerous concessions and groundless compromises, i have no doubt the kremlin

understands the need to wage a protracted war and i think it will continue as long as they have enough cock and it is quite possible that together we will force them to exhale this is an extremely realistic goal for all of us, that is, the west must come to terms with the inevitability of a protracted war and some countries are already succeeding in this and others still no, dear jam, that’s all. i agree with you on the other side, yes, putin’s latest conversations with representatives of his so-called criminal administration show that putin looks bad in his time. many of our acquaintances talked about that that putin is sick, that putin may die, unfortunately, this did not happen, but on the other hand, we see that he, as an authoritarian leader, is getting weaker and weaker in the eyes of his

henchmen . some high-ranking people are unlikely to be officially dismissed because it will make the russian people understand that russia is losing the issue not only in who will remain in what position, who will be dismissed - no, but in that who does putin actually listen to when talking about zolotov , this line of reasoning should not be continued, because it was always the most difficult to find an answer to this question , so it would also be unreasonable to assume that vladimir putin is losing his authority while he is in place, he will be obeyed and he has all the means to the key to this question is whether at some point there will be such pressure on russia that they

will decide to use nuclear or some other exotic weapon against ukraine, even contrary to their military goals. putin will have to be very confident in his own decision. in my opinion, if there was a serious danger of war with the west, it is quite likely that he would simply be thrown out. i don't think that is part of his intentions. two things must be understood. intimidation is the mainstay of russian politics and has been for centuries, but also it also happened that from the point of view of assessing strengths and weaknesses, the approach was very pragmatic, uh, i can't remember a single case when russia under any regime entered a war against a state or a coalition of states which she considered stronger than herself. putin is an exception

to this rule. there are no particular channels of intervention. the voices of the socialists are increasingly heard, warning that we will drive putin into a corner if we do not compromise, if we do not agree. therefore , he can take unprecedented steps. it would be clear a sign of weakness, and not that russia can really dare to do something crazy, since the russians throughout their history have never done something like that, well, the actual issue of nuclear blackmail. what do you think, dear jensy, how far is putin can get into a situation with the temporarily occupied zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, and is this scenario directed purely against ukraine? is it still a big continental blackmail? it is obvious that they want the entire territory to be a safe zone from

which they can launch long-range artillery and missile strikes, and considering the proximity of the npp, any response from the armed forces will help putin in his intention to convince the west that it is ukraine, not russia, that poses the threat of a major nuclear disaster in zaporizhzhia. this is what game putin is playing let's see if the megate experts will be admitted, let's see what they will say about the real conditions there and the level of security more, but it, like everything else, is used as a tool of military conflict and we must keep this in mind, the main unequivocal goal of russia at the moment is to force the west to convince ukraine to enter the negotiation process there is no need to entertain vain illusions that the occupiers will themselves leave the territories they captured since february 24, because this will never happen if the russian

forces are not driven out by force of arms, then they themselves will not will go and any negotiations will be used as a way to continue the war . president zelenskyy understands this very well. some in the us administration in washington also understand this , while others clearly do not. and i am not sure that president biden understands this. the time for negotiations will come only after the russian troops will be withdrawn from the captured territories, negotiations from our side should be conducted in the context of the conflict, which will still continue because its roots, the threat to ukraine will not end until there are the legally recognized internationally recognized borders of ukraine have been restored, and russian troops will not leave its territory, all this cannot be an exclusively military

task, instead it requires a combination of negotiations, political, economic and military pressure. but this is already the second stage from the point of view of the victory of ukraine, you must understand that you are still in the first stage war while the russian forces are in the territories of ukraine occupied by them, we are now in the first stage of the conflict, this must be understood and the only correct way is to expel them force. therefore, the main concerns are focused on whether ukraine in kherson will achieve full success, partial success, or whether there will be a debatable outcome, whatever the outcome, there is a high probability that some western countries will later say that it is time for negotiations. yes, these are extremely important points, dear james. i know about

medium-term forecasts regarding putin's actions in the russian-ukrainian war. this is how we understand that initially he counted on the so-called september campaign of the wehrmacht and against poland in the 39th year but such a scenario failed and now i have a feeling that he is trying to use the military and diplomatic scenarios of the so-called korean war of the 1950s, but the key issue is not what putin wants and not the plans of his general staff, but the availability of appropriate offensive resources on the other hand an equally important question is how ready the west will be in its unlimited military and economic support to ukraine, and the key question is how much everything can change after the autumn elections to the united states congress

the question is not whether russia will restore its resources to achieve all its initial goals, the question is whether ukraine will survive in the absence of long-term support for the event when a western leader says the president in zelenskiy, of course, it is up to you to decide whether to negotiate when it is about what these words mean deeper meaning if the position of the person making such an offer remains steadfast in supporting your armed forces, providing them with everything they need, and also in providing the lion's share of the necessary economic aid, of course, the usa and the west have many levers of influence on kyiv, even if they do not

understand how to influence moscow, then on kyiv. political and military leadership, as well as the unity of the entire country, and seeing such a strong united ukraine, in my opinion, the west will most likely continue to support it, and even to a greater extent, as long as it will it is necessary to look at nothing, maybe a little late , maybe not in such a number as it is needed, but still at a sufficient level. and the main task of the country's leadership is to preserve this unity and also the trust of the armed forces, because the biggest burden fell on their shoulders, the question itself is also why less than necessary and why later than necessary, we understand the issue of pace and supply of the same

charges and powerful artillery systems in our case is key. thus, we understand that any counteroffensive of our armed forces becomes possible if there is sufficient availability of armored vehicles and aviation, by asking this question you only have half of the answer, you should not miss the other half, the armed forces of ukraine are going through an unprecedented transition from the use of soviet weapons to the most modern and technologically advanced western weapons, this is an extremely difficult transition to teach people it takes time they need time to to understand the specifics, more precisely, the supply and service is very difficult, you cannot take and simply hand over 50 himers to the ukrainian forces in one night with the faith that you will hand over something suitable for of immediate use, there are certain limitations, and yet

despite the political restrictions set by the white house, i am absolutely sure that the pentagon , the us department of defense, the armed forces are supplying ukraine with everything they can in the shortest possible time, and provide all related support structures. i am also firmly convinced that as and in the past, ukrainian military personnel become more and more experienced by others and very quickly integrate new weapons into the order of battle of ukraine, so do not rush and steal the event with the stigma of reluctance and procrastination as i already said, the other side of the coin is that in some places in the usa there is an unhealthy level of fear of russian escalation, your reaction to these russian threats depends on the increase in the level of support that will be provided to ukraine, as well as the risks that will be taken for your sake, it is absolutely crazy, after all, now in the usa there are restrictions with regard to the

range and characteristics of certain highly effective weapons supplied to ukraine , there are no grounds for these restrictions at the beginning of the war zelenskyi and the government proposed measures very a profitable and simple scenario, give us weapons and everything we need to fight and we will handle it ourselves you will not have to enter this war and i would say that we have fulfilled our obligations by 75% of that delay if certain steps that we are taking now certain categories weapons that we are currently supplying would have been provided as soon as they first turned to us for help, then ukraine would now be in a much stronger position, the state of the country would be better, the measure would be stronger, the russians would have realized earlier that they will not be able to intimidate us, because we in essence, there is nothing to be afraid of compared to the so-called

collective measure, russia is inferior to it by any criteria, and it is significantly inferior , so the russians are ready to take risks, but they are not reckless, we have no other choice but to dare to take risks that cannot be avoided in this situation, risks and the danger of escalation are integral components of the war that must be accepted, we understand that ukraine is a victim state, a victim of unprovoked aggression, we understand that the west does not just sympathize with us, it helps us a lot. but there may be some steps that our leadership should do in the near future in order to somehow wake up the west even more, active constant pressure on western partners does more harm than good in washington,

not only does it cause great irritation and in the end people simply stop listening to what impresses and will impress people in washington berlin london and even paris, this is a clear demonstration of the unity of ukraine and your determination to do everything necessary to stand to the victorious end , whether you are standing on the battlefield or at the negotiating table for all the determination of ukraine to continue the struggle, the reason why this is important is that as long as there is this unity, no one in the west can betray ukraine without saying directly, we are betraying you , this is the most important thing that the west should understand, the fighter johnson said that without victory over russia, it will not be possible to agree on anything the goal of this war is not negotiations, but a complete victory over russia, as

us defense secretary austin said more than us, to make it impossible or at least to minimize the ability of russia to repeat something similar again with by someone else, if washington, london, paris , berlin had understood this, they would have done much more for ukraine for the delivery of the next ten heimer systems. you need to understand the political goal, political steps and reality. they are always more important than the military, because if you don’t know where to move or what to do, none of them are even very good. weapons will not give you results when you believe and do not understand, we need this clarity from the side of ukraine, which is clearly there, and we also need clarity from the side of the west, which is currently not clear. after all, for russia this vagueness of the position, this ambiguity, this constant emphasis on negotiations, this constant

concern about escalation is a manifest weakness that only prolongs the war. earlier you asked why the russians think they will win like this. this is precisely because of what we say and what we do and how what we don't say or do depends on the feeling of the enemy of our fear . and i'm not the same, because unlike them, we have nothing to fear. in the coming weeks and months, they will be gripped by more and more fear until will stop them finally and only then will we sit down at the negotiating table. thank you very much, dear james, for this extremely significant and important analysis on the espresso tv channel. and now on the espresso tv channel, on the air of the studio program, the event mark fei, a russian opposition figure in exile, a former member of the state duma, a well-known video blogger glory to ukraine

, mark is glad to see what espresso is giving a question for filling, so to speak, you have entered the emigration center of the russian political opposition, so who will or should kyiv make any powerful movements in in russia, you know that there is nothing to call for participation in the round table. it has not already taken place there. the internal reasons are related to security . in the last 30 years of russian political history, no one has created such a full - fledged military resistance to the resistance. on that что из

етого кото ийдет есть есть he is not zero at all, not zero, many people are like cats in ukraine, especially, ukraine loves russian initials very much, but you can’t do anything about it. that’s the kind of war, yes, and the conditions of the war have to be like this otherwise, er, even someone even because of dislike, because of this hatred, they will still agree that wars have their reasons, and the means of combating a grudge is also the support of one 's opponents. we understand how much it was read in the kremlin. so we understand that all of putin's most terrifying paranoid delusions will be realized literally, well, in real time. so, let's talk about putin. so we can see how much he really has something. we remember. and here are all the predictions of professor solov i wish putin was sick, that soon everything would go on like this and

so on, no one believed him now, putin really looks bad and unconvincing, i don't really believe in the fact that, despite the fact that those in the fallen shuga will be left until the end of the company, this is not in style putin, he will wait for a moment when this cannot be done by anyone in any way, and it will have a negative effect on the course of the war or on the morale of the fighters , either the generals or the party is in power, and because, of course, the middle of the war will take away the most unfavorable impression that anyone can pours and so on well, putin himself is to blame for this, the general is to blame, this is the jacket, here’s the ministry of defense talking , here you can’t include anything, but for now, as in your

case, it’s possible to remain in the role of a kind of mask of a public retreat, entrust him with different crazy statements from the regime, such as the last one about the fact that the advance of the russian troops is retarded and that they are trying to save the civilian population well, a normal person watching from the war can will accept normally similar statements of war crimes that they committed in mariupol and in the north of kyiv region and so on, we understand that i nikolaev to odessa propagandists simply directly described these plans in detail with whistles and shouts of slobs and so on. was saying well, we are not attacking the coast. the peaceful

population of nikolaev is there in kryvyi rih, and so on , and for these purposes, they can continue to use the problems of shiriya. soon we are approaching the seventh place yes, it's very much, it's very much, but it's definitely not a mortgage . for a quick campaign, you will decide everything in a week. well , in general, they planned to carry out a full occupation by august 24, they were given a hard time , they rolled back and began to roll back, but still with a resource in the russian federation. that you can't lure with a ruble, so to speak, for a long time, because you can fall into a sin. yes, i think this

problem is in the personal one. it is necessary to replace the etipathy with something. 1,000 people are no longer lost. yes, we are talking about tens of thousands of people, and this is another evidence that the people themselves will not be able to provide all the support there. from the country, how do other people die, yes, they turn into ash, they are simply recycled material, and here we do not see long queues of volunteers that we drove, you can, and they were, but they recycle everything. and where are they, therefore? that the third corps was formed at the bottom of the urban area, and which we can see already moved to the territory of hostilities in the country, well, east to the south

. skills, and according to all the other cries, this indicates that there is a deficit , and it is also important to say that it works effectively, as well as the western weapons that have shown their advantage by proving their effectiveness compared to russian, but of course, therefore , the utilization is faster and more efficient. i think that putin is now in a dead end because of this. and how much does he have in reserve? how much can you still enter ? 2 10 20. the more various kinds of consequences arise and will continue together with you and sanctions, this is visa bans , etc., etc. involved in the decision-making system and they themselves recognize themselves as corrupt beneficiaries of this system at different levels, from the city there to the kremlin , well, for them it is a disease of course and what is the limit of

this suffering? mysterious circumstances, well , the chairman of directors of lukoil, for example, there suddenly decided to throw so and so out of the window and so on время для свободная счёт какзать всегда yes, because, well, that's not the case, now it's sorted out. well, i don't know how it's maganov, yes, they said it. lukoil said that he was suffering from some kind of incurable disease. well, did he have the fourth cancer there? i don't know, yes. well, there were murders from gazprombank, top officials from gazprom, that’s all for us, probably because he wasn’t thrown out, you understand. i think there are a lot of civilized versions for leaving, well, with his fortune, so to speak