under the occupation regime, millions of people have been deported, including more than a quarter of a million children, the economic consequences are colossal, and western aid will barely cover the minimum economic needs in the long term; at the moment, moscow is far from convinced that ukraine is on the path to victory in this war, and this should be understood the second should be understood is that since the war began in 2014, putin has firmly decided that he will either gain control over ukraine or destroy it completely, and nothing has happened since then and this has not changed, the war started because the minsk agreements did not live up to their mission and did not cause destabilization in ukraine, which was counted on in russia by the french and germans, from whom they

expected help, did not help, and zelensky, who was considered weak and a potential puppet, instead shocked everyone in december 2019 year during a meeting in the normandy format, where his speech even made putin visibly nervous. and off-camera, surkov was hysterical even before january 21. lavrov put forward a clear ultimatum to the west or you tame ukraine or we will do it, and since then the countdown to a full-scale war began, a few months before the war, everything indicated that a violent conflict was inevitable, the third moment, which directly answers your question, of course, the current leadership of moscow is determined and ready for a

protracted war if it was short-lived for a long time, whatever the price for russia, even if only ruins remain of the russian economy, even if now the armed forces of the russian federation are paying a huge price, they are playing until they win as stalin said - the winners are not judged and it doesn't matter what the price will be the west typically applies business criteria to assess national interests russia has never done this putin in particular believes that if he wins the geopolitical struggle and economic indicators will pick up by themselves so he is ready to pay any -what is the economic cost while he is in power to oppress ukraine, the russians are not investing in destabilizing ukraine, they are focused on forcing the west to convince ukraine to make dangerous concessions and

groundless compromises, so i have no doubt that the kremlin understands the need to wage a long-term war. i think that this will continue until they have enough cock and it is quite possible that together we will force them to exhale. it already succeeds and others still not so dear jam everything i agree with you on the other side yes putin's latest conversations with representatives of his so-to-speak criminal administration testify that putin looks bad at the time. many of our acquaintances with you talked about the fact that putin is sick, that putin may die, unfortunately, this did not happen, but on the other hand, we see that he, as an authoritarian

leader, is getting weaker and weaker in the eyes of his own henchmen. that you should not make far-reaching assumptions about what is happening in the kremlin, some high-ranking people are unlikely to be officially dismissed because this will make the russian people understand that russia is losing the issue not only in who who will be fired, who will remain in the position - no, and who does putin actually listen to when talking about zolotov, this line of reasoning should not be continued, because this question has always been the most difficult to find an answer to, and it would also be unreasonable to believe that vladimir putin is losing his authority while he is in place, they will listen to him and he has all the means to achieve this, the question is whether

at some point there will be such pressure on russia that they will decide to use nuclear or some other exotic weapon against ukraine, even against their military purposes. if this happens, putin will have to be very confident in his own decision . in my opinion, if there was a serious danger of war with the west, then it is quite likely that he was simply thrown, you want . was for a century, but it also happened that from the point of view of assessing the strengths and weaknesses, the approach was very pragmatic, i cannot remember a single case when russia under any regime entered the war against a state or a coalition of states that it considered

stronger than itself, and vladimir putin is an exception to this rule. there are no particular channels of the west. the voices of the socialists are increasingly being heard, warning that we will drive putin into a corner if we do not make compromises. if we come to an agreement, then he can go to unprecedented steps this would be a clear indication of weakness and not the fact that in russia they can really dare to do something crazy, since the russians throughout their history have never done this do you think, dear james, how far can putin go in the situation with the temporarily occupied zaporizhzhia nuclear plant, and is this a scenario directed purely against ukraine? is it still a big continental blackmail? it is obvious that they

want the entire territory to be a safe zone from which they can inflict artillery and long-range missile strikes, and given the proximity of the nuclear power plant, any response from the armed forces will help putin in his intention to convince the west that it is ukraine, not russia, that poses the threat of a major nuclear catastrophes in zaporizhzhia. this is what game putin is playing . let's see if they will allow experts from megate. let 's see what they will say about the real conditions there and the level of security. but this, like everything else , is used as a tool of military conflict, and we must keep in mind that this is the main unambiguous goal of russia at the moment. to force the west to convince ukraine to enter into the negotiation process, there is no need to nurture useless illusions that the occupiers will themselves leave the territories they captured since

february 24. well, the heartwarming thing will never happen if the russian forces will not be expelled by force of arms, then they themselves will not leave, and any negotiations will be used as a way to continue the war . president zelensky understands this very well. some people in the us administration in washington also understand this , while others clearly do. no, i am not sure that president biden is understands that the time for negotiations will come only after russian troops are withdrawn from the captured territories, negotiations from our side should be conducted in the context of the conflict, which will still continue because its roots are a threat for ukraine will not stop until the legal internationally recognized borders of ukraine are restored and the russian troops do not leave its

territory, all this cannot be exclusively a military task, instead it requires a combination of negotiations, political, economic and military pressure but this is already the second stage from the point of view of the victory of ukraine, you must understand that you are still in the first stage of the war while the russian forces are in the occupied territories of ukraine we are now in the first stage of the conflict this it is necessary to understand that the only correct way is to drive them out by force. therefore, the main fears are focused on whether ukraine in kherson will achieve full success, partial success, or whether there will be a debatable outcome. whatever the outcome, there is a high probability that some western countries will later say that it is time for negotiations. these are extremely important

points, dear james, if we speak. i don't know about medium-term forecasts regarding putin's actions in the russian-ukrainian war. so we understand that he originally counted on the so-called september the wehrmacht campaign and against poland in the 39th year, but a similar scenario failed and now i have a feeling that he is trying to use the military and diplomatic scenarios of the so-called korean war of the 1950s, but the key issue is not what putin wants and not the plans of his general headquarters, and their availability of appropriate offensive resources , on the other hand, is an equally important question of how far the west will be ready in its unlimited military and economic support of ukraine, and the key question is how much everything can change after

autumn elections to the united states congress, the question is not whether russia will restore its resources to achieve all its initial goals, the question is whether ukraine will survive in the absence of long-term support for the event, when a western leader says the president in zelenskiy, of course, it is up to you to decide whether to negotiate when its that these words have a much deeper meaning if the position of the person making such an offer remains steadfast in supporting your armed forces and providing them with everything they need as well as regarding the provision of the lion's share of the necessary economic aid, of course the usa and the west have many levers of influence on kyiv, even if they do not understand how to influence moscow, then on kyiv

. unity, the unity of the leadership of the state, the armed forces, the combination of political and military leadership, as well as the unity of the entire country, and seeing such a strong united ukraine, in my opinion, the west will most likely continue to support it and even to a greater extent, as much as it will be needed for a while, maybe a little late , maybe not as much as needed, but still at a sufficient level. and the main task of the country's leadership is to preserve this unity, as well as the trust of the armed forces, because the biggest burden actually fell on their shoulders question and why less than necessary and why later than necessary, we

understand the issue of rates and supply of the same charges and powerful artillery systems in our case is key. so we understand that any a counteroffensive by our armed forces becomes possible if there is a sufficient supply of armored vehicles and aviation, by asking this question you only have half of the walkie-talkie, you should not miss the other half, the armed forces of ukraine are experiencing an unprecedented transition from the use of soviet weapons to the most modern and technologically advanced western weapons, this is an extremely difficult transition to teach people need time they need time to understand the specifics supply and service itself is very complicated you can't take and just hand over to the ukrainian forces 50 himers in one night with faith that

you will deliver something suitable for immediate use and yet despite the political restrictions set by the white house i am absolutely sure that the pentagon of the us department of defense the armed forces supply ukraine with everything they can in the shortest possible time and provide all related with this support structure i am also firmly convinced that, as in the past, ukrainian military personnel are becoming increasingly experienced by others and are very quickly integrating new weapons into ukraine's order of battle therefore, don't be in a hurry to brand the event as reluctance and procrastination, as i said, the other side of the coin is that in some places in the us there is an unhealthy level of fear of russian escalation, and your reaction to these russian threats depends on the increase in the level of support that will be provided to ukraine, as well as the risks for which you will be followed by hm gailik, in the end, now in the

usa there are restrictions on the range and characteristics of certain highly effective weapons that are supplied to ukraine, there are no grounds for these restrictions at the beginning of the war, zelenskyi and the government proposed a very profitable and simple scenario, give us weapons and everything we need to fight and we will handle it ourselves. you will not have to enter this war and i would say that we fulfilled our obligations by 75% of that late if certain steps that we are currently taking, certain categories of weapons that we are currently supplying would have been provided as soon as we were first asked for help, then ukraine would now be in a much stronger position , the state of the country would be better, the measure would be stronger the russians would have realized earlier that they will not be able to

intimidate us, because we have nothing to fear compared to the so-called collective measure. russia is inferior to it by any criteria, and it is significantly inferior, so the russians are ready to take risks , but they are not reckless, we have no other choice but to dare to take risks that cannot be avoided in this situation, risks and the danger of escalation are integral components of war that must be accepted, we understand that ukraine is a victim state, a victim of unprovoked aggression, we we understand that the west not only sympathizes with us, it helps us a lot but perhaps there are some steps that our leadership should take in the near future in order to somehow wake up the west even more, active constant pressure on western partners

is more harmful than beneficial in washington, not only does it cause a huge irritation and in the end people simply stop listening to what impresses and will impress people in washington, berlin , london and even paris, this is a clear demonstration of the unity of ukraine and your determination to do everything it is necessary to persevere to the victorious end , whether you are standing on the battlefield or at the negotiating table, for all the determination of ukraine to continue the struggle, the reason why this is important is that as long as this unity exists, no one in the west can betray ukraine without directly saying that we are betraying you , this is the most important thing what the west should understand, the fighter johnson said that without defeating russia, it will not be possible to agree on anything, the goal of this war is not

negotiations, but a complete victory over russia, as us defense minister austin said to make it impossible or at least to minimize the ability of russia to repeat something similar again with someone else, if washington, london, paris, berlin understood this, they would have done much more for ukraine for the delivery of the next ten hammer systems, you need to understand the political goal, political steps and reality, they are always for the military, because if not to know where to move or what to do, no even a very good weapon will give you results, then when you believe and do not understand, we need this clarity from the side of ukraine, which we definitely have clarity is also needed from the west, which is not clear at the moment. after all, for russia, such vagueness of the position, such ambiguity, this constant emphasis

on negotiations, constant concern about escalation is a manifesto of weakness, which only prolongs the war. earlier you asked why the russians think that they will win like this. it is because of this because on what we say and what we do and how on what we do not say or do not depend on the feeling of the enemy of our fear moses will not enter us unlike them there is nothing to be afraid of it in the coming weeks and months , they will be gripped by more and more fear until it finally stops them and only then will we sit down at the negotiating table. thank you very much dear james for this extremely important and important analysis on espresso tv channel and now on espresso tv channel on the air of the studio program west markfel gen russian opposition figure in emigration former

state duma deputy well-known video blogger glory to ukraine mark is glad to see that i am espresso questions for filling , so to speak, you have entered the emigration center of the russian political opposition, so who would or should have made any powerful movements in russia without kyiv, you know that there is nothing involved, here i responded to the call to participate in the round table he did not take place there for some internal reasons related to security but by itself i understand that history will continue for how long the subjects of this initiative, while you are talking, it is too early because they are doing something serious, unprecedented even in russian political history, in the last 30 years, no one has created such a full-fledged military resistance resistance, of course, this is the conditions of the war, everything is happening, and this, in general, it affects everything, the side of the question, but i think that the chance

that something will come out of it is not zero at all not zero, many people do not relate to this in ukraine, especially, ukraine loves russian initiatives very much, you don’t fake anything. that’s the kind of war, and in the conditions of a war, you have to do it differently, even for someone, even because of dislike, because of this hatred, they will still agree that wars have their own reasons and still a means of fighting the insult is imagined, including the support of the ego of the opponents but so the enemy of my enemy so to speak my friend from the other side yes we understand how much it was read in the kremlin yes we understand that all the most terrible paranoid delusions of putin will be realized literally well in real time yes well and let's talk about putin. so we can see how much he really has something. we remember. but here are all the predictions of the nightingale professor

that putin will be sick that soon everything will go on and on and on and on. no one believed him now. putin really it looks bad and unconvincing, then i don't really believe that even those who are in the downtrodden will be left until the end of the campaign, this is not putin's style, he will wait for a moment when it cannot in any way affect the course of the war negatively or there on the moral feeling of the fighters, or the generals of the flight, or the party in power, because, of course, in the middle of the war, take the most unfavorable impression that everyone can pour and so on variant always that is, if we allow ourselves to imagine that the ukrainian army, the thief in kherson , go into the water and occupy it, it still needs to be released correctly. well, no, putin himself is to blame for this, the general is to blame, this jacket is the speaker of the

ministry of defense, here you can’t turn anything on, but for now you have how in the case of eh, what is it, what is it, can it be left as a false face of the public defense, and it can be entrusted to speak with different crazy statements from the regime, such as the last one about the fact that the advance of the russians is retarded the troops are leading what they are trying to save the civilian population. well, a normal person observing the war, he can, generally speaking , perceive as normal the similar statements of war crimes that they committed in mariupol and in the north of kyiv region and taxis, we understand that i how can this be interpreted and that no less, he was entrusted with this , because in fact, at the beginning of august, they are planning to move to nikolaev through nikolaev to odessa, the propagandists simply described these plans in detail with whistles and shouts and so on

. what does it say first of all? the most important aspect is the long duration of the war, after all, 6 months is coming soon. we are approaching the seventh place. yes, it is very much. with a population and a class of your own, that is, after all, how did you build them up for this quickly? by the teeth, they rolled back and started to roll back, but still with the resource in the russian federation. as far as i understand, it is not bad, but if the convicts are taken away, well, it means that you will not be lured by the ruble, so to speak, for a long time, because you can fall into sin

. yes, i think that the problems are in personal composition the most difficult problems, first of all, he is the wild losses. yes, if there are gigantic losses, then it is already obvious that it is necessary to replace the etyparia with something, but i have not even lost 1000 people. yes, we are talking about tens of thousands, and this is another evidence that the people themselves cannot do everything he doesn't want to get support there, he screams cotton wool and so on, because it 's one thing to watch it from the side as others die and turn to ashes. they could have gone and they were, but they were all scrapped. and where are they? so what are these? what is in muleno? the third corps was already formed by me in the urban area and which we see has already been moved to the territory of hostilities. ukraine, well, east to the south. the composition is not prepared, many testify to it, and there are quite clear data about it, that people are taken all

in a row, according to age, according to skills, and according to all other criteria, and this indicates that there is a deficit, and it is also important to say that it works effectively, western weapons have proven their advantage by proving their effectiveness compared to russian ones, but naturally, therefore, the disposal is faster and more efficient. i think that putin is now at a dead end because of this, because of how much he has in reserve, how much can you still enter in another hour 2 10 20 that is, well, such a question of the number itself is frightening, because the further it goes, the more disparities arise, and the investigation reveals the duration of this sanction. here are visa bans and so on and so on for for a resident of his own class who is not from the border, this can be and it is not important. but for people who are involved in the decision-making system and themselves are recognized as corruption beneficiaries of this system at different levels, from the city there to the kremlin, well, for

them it is painful, of course, and what предлед этого терпения этой большаности yes, and the issue of the fact that local elites, so to speak, are beginning to die more and more often under mysterious circumstances, well, the chairman of the directors of lukoil, for example, suddenly decided to throw so and so out of the window and so on and so on in fact, in history, there are many strange suicides among generals, so that it is a favorable time for the information. it's incurable, well, did he have a fourth cancer ? i don't know. well, there were murders from gazprom banks, top officials from gazprom, that's all for us. well, how could he not have been thrown out of the window, you understand. i think that there are quite a few civilized or versions in order to leave, well, with his

fortune, so to speak, well, i think, yes, perhaps some doctors could help and so on, well, i know, probably, everything looks very suspicious . i do not rule out anything political. that these things will happen in the future and the most important thing is that no one will do it. well, so to speak, it can be at the bottom, some kind of redistribution is possible. who stole from whom, who owes whom, er, someone is actively fighting, but not to that extent, i am cheap putin , by the way, in this sense, er, he clearly turned around, because here comes a feeling of specialness, we show what documents there are housing and communal services education of the first september, and so on. and so on. as a matter of fact, his head is busy, he will rule out the operation because it is clear that he spends most of his time in reports and understanding, that is, he will include in the wars everything else that is not so important .

here he clearly succeeds. it’s not very good , the point is, because it’s happening behind the scenes, it’s overcome, or not, if there are any means to get the situation, it seems increasingly that everything is exhausted, not in such other essential ways of waging war, that we won’t find out because i i don’t really see it. and that there should be a greater number of people that they can throw to the front, and the techniques that we also don’t see are especially new, something incredible, that is, propaganda is all that they have, this is an instrument that for internal use, and in principle for waging war in general, the means are exhausted. and the quantity can still retain its significance. yes, there is more searching, more mornings, but nothing new. with a stable

supply of weapons, the quantity and quality and diversified variety are not yet represented, they say the plane is there and that’s it, yes, the rocket projectile is 400 km away, and so on, there are many more there is no ukraine and if there is something that is why i think that way putin is neglected and they are definitely not solved by means of ordinary administrative decisions leave it that they will be put by gold it will not be left gold can't do anything so you fully manifest from the other side, but such information appeared, it begins go for a walk . i don't know what one or the other is brewing in a fascist rebellion in putin's entourage. well, as proof of all this, they cite the still alive and thriving hill on strilkovo yes. although according to the canons of the genre, it could have been disposed of well, in general, there was nothing strange about it, but no, they keep it like that, and the name of the first deputy gugsh of the russian federation, general alekseev, is called