yes, these are the main countries that are currently buying, and in fact, it is precisely because of their growth that russian purchases of russian oil for the sanctions turned out to be not very successful. which other countries are playing this game? who is buying this india? players, well, that's the whole point of it, it's also a sanction, it worked because now well, how does the oil market work and, in principle, probably any commodity market, the closer your consumer is, the higher the price he always pays because for him the alternatives will all be more expensive and vice versa that is, the further you have to supply to russia, yes, russia is now forced to supply to some distant one, now there with latin america, there are negotiations with some countries there, and so on, the farther you go, the less your are not the so-called disadvantages. yes, and you get less. that is, it hits the

cost price and, accordingly, such uncomfortable things arise in turkey. yes, you are asking who turkey actually has factories there, and one of the factories. there, the sokalskyi of azerbaijan is also switching to russian oil because it is simply mega profitable that is, taking into account the 30% discount and the russian-nato in recent months. that is, you buy and 30% of your profitability is already just at the start. you have not even earned anything there, no network for auto products, just for the purchase of raw materials. you already have a 30% profitability, this is mega money and sanctions that will begin to work from december 5, which were adopted by us, they will hit turkey's ability to purchase and the ability to buy indian oil products that are produced from russia , and it is a member of the european union, so it will continue buy that is, there are always countries that

make money from all this, do you remember belarus was like that for a while, yes, before us there was a lot there and it was forbidden to supply a lot of things there to russia. here, now turkey plays such a role, for example, which earns a lot of money from this, that is, to actually expect that something will radically change from the fifth of december, uh, it's not worth it, but the search for new ways, which the big seven have announced, what is possible limit the value of the price, it can work, yes. and so we will see, because i say that it is constant. some new circumstances arise, but they are positive in that this movement does not stop. that is, it is slowly driven from there. they limited the volume, now they are limiting the price. secondary sanctions will creep in, well, that is, everyone will

stuff all the cones gradually, and accordingly, i think that in the end some solution will be found that will allow everyone understands that if they are clamped today, there will simply be a shortage of oil and everyone will lose because of this they want to make it so that they receive so that they, relatively speaking, simply do not earn anything from it there, but keep the production, and then the whole world will have fuel and there will be no such things, that is what hits the voters, what hits the ratings of what is collapsing there are parliamentary coalitions there in europe and so on and so on and so on. do you remember biden's visit in the spring or at the beginning of the summer when he visited saudi arabia? we are already seeing the results of these meetings. at the same time, it was announced that the opec countries would will be considered the possibility of an increase, that is, it is very important to understand that it has been a few months, and the result of these negotiations is there, because then we were very happy, well, finally , we remember that there are such tires that if there is

an increase in views in one place, then it will logically hit the price. increased no, it did not increase because, well, saudi arabia is a member, well, first of all, opec, first of all, the members of this mega are the formation of opec plus. that is, when russia, kazakhstan , azerbaijan and other large oil-producing countries join the country and they have their own agreement and they keep the quotas for which they have agreed. now they have not revised these quotas yet, so it is difficult to say that there is something more. everyone is also waiting for a decision regarding iran . there is the work of removing sanctions from the oil sector and the wound in exchange for the appeal of their nuclear program is a very difficult process, but if iran then enters the market, it will be, well , just mega shocks and so on, that is, you

also need to understand yes, what and i think that this is the position of the country well, it will also be very important when, er, whether these sanctions will be effective will depend on the countries of pharmacies , too, because they are so, they seem to agree to do it there, but you have to understand that they earn a lot of money from these high prices and they see that er, nothing can radically change so far. that's why they play such a double game. yes. on the one hand, they seem to want to help, on the other hand , they are in no hurry to increase something there. that is , there is their own diplomacy, and as they say, yes, they see what is happening on the market. crazy point in this year they just they just there they record such profits that no one there has ever dreamed of that's why it is especially important for them they lost a lot in covid do you remember there then oil was 15 dollars there and 20 dollars too much and accordingly they are just now they have such a renaissance, so i think

that they will not be interested in many countries , for example, they generally live only for e.e. well, like russia there, or they are even more dependent on oil exports, so of course the motivation to increase production there is not very great, that is, for now the only thing, well, let's call it a beam, yes, but a radical beam is this ban on the insurance of ships that will transport russian oil. if they do not adhere to the set price, well, again , practically until it happened. it is really difficult to model it like that. there will be some chinese companies with logistics companies yes. there will always be some company that will say i can, i can raise it again, but the statistics were published in the spring, so i could be wrong in figures, but there are within 70% everywhere on which russian oil is transported, this is the very court that

even belongs to britain, the united states and a number of european countries, that is, it does not smell like china, and that is the same. it is logical that these courts are for these countries. it is logical that they apply for insurance to of their own countries, because the country where the ship is located and indeed this idea is the most radical. but whether it will work here, only time is needed. well, then i propose to move on to conversations about the situation in ukraine. your shirt is always closer to your body, and we want to understand what fuel in ukraine for today and i want to talk about how we passed these most critical first months 1+1 returns to the air about the ethnic guard in the studio working for you yevgen kuksin and i yevhen plinskyi are visiting us serhiy kuyun director of the a-95 consulting company we are talking about pavlov's market in the world and in ukraine, now i want to talk about the end of february and the beginning of a full-scale invasion, and

understand how we solved the issue, well, a very difficult issue that the war posed to us, the question of the availability of fuel in the country and the solution that crisis that suddenly appeared around us in this matter, because i remember the morning of february 24. crazy queues at a-a gas stations. and i had one question. when will the moment come when there will be zeros hanging at these gas stations and there will be no fuel in the country because we we heard the information about the shelling of our oil bases, we understood that the main countries supplying fuel was belarus, which was a full-scale invasion, we understood that the question of fuel disappearing in the country is a matter of time but it happened, but not when we all expected it er, what was this fuel challenge, what was er, we were deciding how to solve it. i think that this is a

story in general. it deserves a separate chronicle . it is difficult for the country to imagine that it literally gets rid of 100% of its sources of fuel supply within one month, it is, as they say, a nightmare , yes, that is, it is impossible to imagine and no one ever plans for it, and it is impossible to insure against it. diversified, well, how do you diversify from a missile d- do you diversify to make reserves, well, what did you do with the reserves, yes, you don't have one missile, you don't have a reserve, that's why this is the situation, it's over there in europe, yes, they are creating strategic reserves there. well, okay, our situation shows that it doesn't work, that is, a missile arrives there is no reserve, there is no oil base, it is of course public, that is, we are going through a situation

that no one has ever gone through, and in fact today we can say that we have won the first major victory on the economic front in this war, we have completely restored supply of fuel today we do not have a deficit, we have a surplus of fuel for all brands of petroleum products, and this is not just an incredible story. there is a lot to tell, but it should be noted that the role of the government was really big. it was difficult to accept then the solutions were, as always, very non-standard and no one did it there either. but one way or another, the result is, as they say, we have a lot of fuel on the table, and the most important thing is that today we have a very extensive supply system, not only geographically although it is all on europe, yes, we have a very unique transport system of transport and supply, in particular, for example, we take almost half

of the volume to the gasoline truck. come on, let's talk about it. here i am on the morning of february 24. as a journalist, as a media person, my thoughts were about how it will be work on television, how will we inform society about the issue of war? and you must have woken up and you have a question about what will happen to this market. i understand that there are many issues that we can not talk about yet, but still, not really very quickly in the first days, literally in the first days of march , an operational operational fuel headquarters was created, it was headed by prime minister feridenko, and the volume began very quickly they included all the profile e-e of the ministry, the department there, the railways, the border, and so on and so on. well, traders , of course, and hmm, they started very quickly

. a database was already created to coordinate and look to predict at least how much we need and when it is what are you talking about, we have already seen those days and we have seen that really, we predicted that everything will happen somewhere in april, yes , such an aggravation is the main thing, but we were very lucky because the kremenchug oil refinery was working all march. unfortunately, we all understood that what happened to him will happen. it was the main thing is that, firstly, we had good reserves , secondly, i worked at the kremenchug oil refinery, but it all evaporated literally in a week or two, when you remember, there was such a day that there

was not a day without shelling of oil tanks. more than 25 key depots today we can already see that they counted them so that these are the main depots where fuel came from russia, that is, they through their companies, they have had a leak for a long time, if you remember, that is, in the federal e-e export inspection control and they simply saw where their fuel was going according to e-e railway details and simply hit those bases. that is, it was all forgotten and, accordingly , everything. i think that we could have avoided the crisis if it were not for the shelling, that is, if it were not for the oil depot, if it were not for the refinery we would have stretched the market, we would have had time to reorganize to new expert to new imported supplies. the work has begun. there were a lot of barriers.

naftobas so that no one ever did this, the fuel always went from east to west, here the ukrainians come and say no, guys, we need to dump it to the east, so it never worked like that, accordingly, all the wheels, what prices began to move very hard there, everything was going well and we would have this april it was enough if it weren't for this bombing. i think that the market would calmly start supplying imports and would already cover the volumes of what stocks we had and the kremenchug plant. we even survived the pc, but since it happened so suddenly, quickly. yes literally there it seems to be the last decade of march, the beginning of april, here they are just knocking down this system , someone connects it, by the way, with the fact that they were forced to flee from kyiv, when they realized that nothing was going to happen to them, they could not seize anything, they decided to destroy this fuel infrastructurally they wanted to take over ukraine as a whole, damaged, it is necessary that later it will be possible and

somehow, when they realized that this will not happen, they began to think, well, i heard such an opinion . what you said at the beginning, that today the main sources of fuel inflow into ukraine are gas trucks, as far as i am concerned. we are getting very big money, but at the beginning, when this idea was only announced, i just remember that these were discussions, then part of the forecasts were being made on the other hand, under such conditions, gasoline will roughly speaking be within the western part of ukraine, and so on, it is already here and physically even the center will not be reached, god, it is unprofitable, but why drive gasoline trucks, that is, remembering march, april yes, it was perceived as a completely adequate forecast, so it is necessary to accept the fact that everything, that is , with gasoline, if someone is in ukraine, then only the western part of ukraine

. but it is extremely interesting how this system works. because despite all these forecasts, today you even hear statements. well, if you see the figures about the surplus of e-e materials, then of course it holds up like something , so the key question is how is this possible very simply because absolutely thoughts were also correct these are said because look well, let's remember that we had state regulation then, that is, one price throughout the country, but the cost of bringing it across the western border to lviv and bringing kharkiv to poltava is a different story. this one is in a gas truck, this way, it costs 3-4 hryvnias, as much as possible, as much as possible, there will be one price throughout the country, and accordingly, the east really began to dry up because, under the conditions of state regulation, simply

no one could fit into that price, and the government has already understood it, i think. although there late there on a week or two, but they canceled the reception and this stream he just left, he went more calmly and freely went to the east, and that's how the problem was solved. well, when was this period? when the government was delaying its decision, we saw a few dry stations ate this deficit, of course, the company spoke frankly, especially there, i know there is bathing in sokar there, for example, it frankly said that we did not supply because there was no economy, well, that is , of course, this is a kind of position. they worked and didn't look at the price tags because they had to work. let's just say that the government canceled this state regulation on may 17. we can see that it's literally two months and the question has to be

resolved . let's say that the source countries for us are in transport logistics, that is, for example, today we have a lot of fuel from turkey, a lot of fuel from turkey, yes, that is, they buy russian oil cheaply, then sell it to us at a high price, yes, jazz business, yes, how they say, er, it's poland, it's lithuania, it's romania , romania, as a supplier, it is they who receive the same turkish product by sea and bring it to us. that is, our trucks are transported through romania. it is considered that it is romanian fuel, but it is not romanian. there are a lot of countries, there is even fuel from the netherlands from belgium, so you can imagine where the netherlands is, belgium, where we are from, and the traders say there, i know. it seems that they have that contract, they don’t say how expensive it was, but from the point of view there it has diversification. they are wondering if we, uh,

please supply us with fuel. because we have a lot of transformers, do they make money? by the way, you voiced this narrative very often on the air . there, guys, let our partners supply us, no, we buy it at market prices, and besides, we also have european partners, they also set such premiums, uh, at the peak, they reached somewhere somewhere, there in may, april , june, they reached 300 dollars per ton, despite the fact that before the war, we bought fuel with a premium of $20-30, and this is a kind of markup, that is, there is a world quotation, which everyone is guided by, yes, and then, depending on the logistics and the buyer, the market works, that is, they see that you need it. well, it is very necessary the

more you need, the more it will be for you , but everyone understood that now well, you have to take it because no one plays around with help no, we were some humanitarian supplies from poland through the state reserve e-e by the way, the poles just deserve here once again to all respect as the first er, the train with fuel went to ukraine literally on february 25-26. that is, it is them. it is completely uncharacteristic for them, but according to the state, they just worked there perfectly, very quickly, and well, that was very important at that time. taras already raised the issue of money, yes then again, at the beginning of solving this problem in general, it was stated that it is already a matter of time, so when our prices will overtake them, roughly speaking, the european price tags are now, and that is exactly what is indicated about the price

dynamics, and in principle, what is needed be moral tone, because this is taking into account that we have had a message for a month that prices have stabilized . yes, but in the stream of news that prices have stabilized. you already even, er, already lost, you know that indicator. and where is the concept of these stable prices when they are every time norms about price stabilization they are already perceived as another stream of news, that is, what do we have with walls in this matter, the prices, they will depend entirely on them, now we import fuel almost 100%, accordingly, everything will depend on the purchase price, and therefore they cannot be stable, they will always fluctuate. and even that formula of statehood, when it existed, was based precisely on global car thefts, so this is the main factor, secondly, now there are many people who, er, now there was a discussion, i don’t know, i don’t know if they heard, probably the state wants to partially return the excise tax and this is the

rhetoric there, what will be voted on in the first reading. look, there is someone there, some super prices there, some super prices there, they do not correspond even with the condition of currency devaluation, but everyone forgets about those premiums that we pay and now they are not 300 so far the market has become saturated and they have fallen to 130-150 dollars, that is, the excitement was sleeping and it rained everything rained rained premiums have already halved their price tags ship owners who were transporting fuel for ukrainian traders have already fallen almost twice because there well, you did the boys understand there, the romanians, the moldovans , they earned so much from these transportations for ukraine that they have now completely renovated their fleet of gasoline trucks literally in two or three months, they earned so much there are simply tariffs that they never dreamed of even if you still drove them to ukraine, well, this

is still an extra premium, you had to pay because there are risks there, after all, cars, so we are overpaying now for everything and the further we go, the more the market will stabilize, the market will be saturated , it will all come normal, that is, these speculations, yes, and on transportation and on these premiums, people earn money there. well, how was the story with excise taxes? yes, when i returned it with impatience, it was already your prediction that people should not worry, eh, traders have eh high margin they will compensate for the cost fuel on the ceiling, they keep it at the expense of their excess profits, well, in fact, that’s how they turned out. yes, now the cost of the 95th there is uah 51:50, approximately, and this price remains the same as it was before the return of vat, not vat. and you do you mean? i think that the dollar exchange rate, the dollar exchange rate, yes, when the

national bank revised it by 25%, yes, we did not see this in the prices, because the potential for a decrease was actually compensated by such a planned devaluation, and now it will be the same when we urge you about excise taxes now we see what and why the government in general i raised this issue, in fact, they did. the price just fell. if it was 140 in march, now it is 90, and this is a good option for the cost of logistics, of course, that is, the cost of fuel is falling . taxes can be introduced slowly and this will not lead to an increase in the price of speakers, a very interesting moment again. from the point of view of military conditions, to what extent can it be voiced yes, but it is simply impossible not to be interested in this, but today's conditions indicate that oil should be stored, well, again, at the same oil depots and a priori, it is dangerous, because no one canceled the risk of the missile during those years, a tentative

conclusion is suggested that today all fuel in ukraine what comes and goes immediately well, roughly speaking, to the consumer or to the gas station tactically. opinion about the new supply system we had before the war in gasoline trucks. well, i will say this in plain sight. already half a percent of the supply is all the rest. there he pulls some stick of grass and everything works. yes , that is, he immediately arrived, the truck poured into a gas station or a small terminal there. there are many industrial, as well as some small such containers. it's just that life itself forced us to choose such a partisan tactic, roughly speaking, we had no choice, no one asked us how to live like this, but from the point of view, if

we look at this situation not from the point of view of the consumer, there are gas stations and so on from the point of view vision of the global system, which is called the state. it does not harm us in any way. well, it does not affect the state or, in principle, it does not matter. well, you know, first of all, it shows what this model can be. yes, it should show the same to europe. well, the oil depot is dangerous, i will say. so we have 7,000 gas stations, each with a capacity of 100 cubic meters, conventionally speaking, these are very large parks in themselves, what are you filling gas stations with ? let's say so that's why life is a lot of things, but the war dispelled a lot of superstitions, there are some things that need to be done. this is how it works, and it works in its own way. there are no reserves, but

there is no place to shoot, there is no single target. by the way, there was a normal reserve. why was it yes in march in february why was the situation more or less calm because in winter consumption is low and contracts are signed for supply for the whole year and you have to choose them yes they are in your possession they are there you fill your bases you freeze very large ones there funds, but you make up for it in the summer, yes. and just then we entered this war with full bases, i.e. look at the destroyed oil tank of klo there in vasylkov, well, vasylkov was passed several times, and there in borodyanka, they were full of that oil tank that was captured by the rashists in kherson, there is a rolling stock the okivsky point seems to have been full too, i.e. everything was filled with fuel and, accordingly,

this stock saved ours. yes, we are in march. we have a few minutes left, we want to ask if what is happening with belarus now for their oil refining they were one of the largest suppliers of fuel in ukraine and for us it is very important to understand what is happening with the condition of the building and how bad it is for them, well they have lost practically everything, that is, for them ukraine was also in for their factories er, well, this was the only breath of air they could breathe, of course, after we left for the first time, they were forced to immediately lower the load. now it is all classified but what the insiders say is the minimum load that they can technologically, that is, the factories have such a feature that they cannot, uh, stop. yes, they have to constantly process something and there is such a minimum this. they work at minimum revolutions, but these revolutions are still much more than the internal consumption of belarus , and that is why the usk brothers come to help there, i

think that they are normally mobilized there and simply start fuel or make a swap when belarusian fuel goes to internal russian the russian market goes for export, or their ports are allowed too, and unfortunately for them, too, the current state of the oil market, when the prices soared very much, it turned out that they made a little money here, normally because the prices for russian oil fell, and for petroleum products, they remained high. this is the walrus of oil refineries, therefore, even with minimal loadings, i think that they were able to progress through this difficult period for them, to implement, as it were, through russia, in fact, he is pulling them to lukashenka himself, you know not even here, but it still hangs there. well, for example, oil refining was profitable there. and that’s right there. all the industries are there. they are subsidized only at the expense of the russians. they functioned with these

permanent subsidies. they functioned. i think that it will end anyway. i think that one of the two plants should stop there precisely because it is simply not profitable, it is a very interesting conversation, but we have to finish it, time is running out, and with one phrase, prices in ukraine can change significantly before the new year, in order to reassure car owners, there are some prerequisites in one phrase, we will look at a very important thing : what is what? what we were talking about is how sanctions will be organized if the price of oil falls. we will hope that the exchange rate will hold and oil prices will fall with you, there was a project worth a night vvenguksin, i am yevhen plinsky, serhii kuyun, the director of the consulting company 95 was a guest, we talked about fuel, we hope it was interesting, see you soon