polza familia and uh, in principle, even this program was one of the factors that turned brazil into such an agrarian giant and a large-scale agro-exporter after the food crisis, and in fact it is worth taking advantage of this experience, and that is why food programs for the population are important, and not price regulation, here are more details we understood the prices for each group of goods and services and the forecasts that are available today, and we will start with one of the basic indicators of the so-called borscht index, that is, the cost of a borscht set and the forecast for the nearest such a month in september in ukraine, the prices of products may stabilize, the ukrainian club of agrarian business predicts that we should expect a seasonal decrease in the price of vegetables included in the so-called borscht set, potatoes, beets , cabbage, carrots, onions, etc., but meat products will probably increase in price, as we noted for sour cream, good that you will also have to pay more

, dairy products are traditionally more expensive in the fall, however , the price situation can significantly worsen in the event of a jump in the cost of fuel or electricity, or of a significant weakening of the hryvnia exchange rate, let's analyze this moment why, against the background of this increase in prices that we are talking about, this is the forecast of the ukrainian agrarian business club that for some vegetables, on the contrary, there will be a standard situation, we understand that seasonal vegetables and fruits are cheaper, they are watching, watching on they are objectively cheaper on the market, that's why the first year becomes a lot, secondly, they grow, and secondly, a large part of them cannot be stored, that is, they need to be sold. and thirdly, well, ukraine it is big enough, so in pre-war times, it moved like this in waves. that is, we received earlier vegetables and fruits in the month of july, we received them from the south of ukraine this year, this was not the case, and that is why this july and this happened in general, because

inflation did not even occur in our country. let's say in the month of july, that is, the prices even decreased in the general indexes in july, this did not happen in july of this year, the dynamics of prices for vegetables and fruits remained quite high, but if we look in general, let's say july, july 22 of the year and prices for vegetables are twice as much as a year ago for fruits. in fact, it is difficult for me to say, maybe pavlo is more oriented in this, he will explain why. because actually we also received fruits from the south, but somehow, well, there it is possible that the demand for fruits is simply weaker, and vegetables - this is standard. this is a set of borscht, so the prices have doubled for fruit prices compared to july last year to withdraw somewhere around 16%. and in fact we can say that now the market is starting to feel where the balance of supply and demand is, that is, whether or not make a mistake with prices because farmers need money in order to restore their processes and sow next year in the same way. what were vegetables,

on the other hand, there is a fairly dynamic demand for these products, that's why you are seeing jumps. who goes to the market, let's say who looks at on the dynamics of the target, how sharply are prices changing at this time, and the prices of vegetables in season. i think that it is really august, he has already broken through this news, that is, it is really here. significantly improves the indicators for fruits, it is also obvious that in september there will be an equalization, but this is also a process, a colleague already mentioned that after all, people are expecting a rise in prices, and they are being told about it somehow too flatly today, i can assume that there may even be some kind of intention here well, of course, today they will show an increased demand for those uh, in particular, vegetables that can be stored for long periods of time, in your opinion, in pushing for something, yes, i well, what we see today in the information field, uh, these eyes, yes

so to speak, the lists that are doing great today. what should be stocked up for the winter, there is a serious risk that it is actually acting as a pro-intellectual factor, and you understand that there is also a big risk when it happened all the time when a person chose a lot of these if goods then they deteriorated, but in terms of resources, it is still relatively limited, so here you need to find a balance and understand what it means to yield. well, actually lead to shortages and the growth of excessive price increases a lot of cereals, er, bugs will start in them one way or another, well, such a conclusion can be drawn. and do you have an answer, mr. pavlo, regarding this er, fruit, and despite this lost in the south, it is impressive, and we still have a forecast of a decrease in price, with what it is connected, look at uh, in those temporarily occupied territories, uh, approximately 20% of vegetables and fruits

are produced. there is quite a good offer of vegetables on the domestic market it is also important to understand that many people went to the country in the summer and took care of homesteads , so they used this resource in order to provide themselves with vegetables. there are a lot of apples whose quality is not suitable for the european market and they lose in competition with polish apples and in general eh hmm. thus, we have a lot of apples inside the country and the prices are not high, it is interesting. well, let's add another interesting piece of information about an important component

of the cost of products and inflation is fuel prices, and this is no secret. we remember queues at gas stations and a sharp jump in the cost of all types of fuel to record levels, and all due to the full-scale invasion of russia, strikes on bases where it was maintained. however, the situation was stabilized, although the price tags remain quite high at the moment, fuel prices in ukraine have decreased somewhat over the past month, the most significantly, automobile gas has become cheaper by more than uah 2 per liter and diesel fuel by uah 1 the average cost of 95% gasoline remains below the symbolic price level of uah 50 per liter. however , in the near future, the cost of fuel may increase due to the restoration of excise duties on gasoline, diesel and avtogaz in ukraine. seasonal drop in stock prices for oil and oil products, e-e fuel market experts

claim that if there are no extraordinary events, the price of fuel in ukraine will remain stable in the fall. well, actually, when we talk about a possible increase in fuel prices, let's say all the factors that will lead to this are listed by us in the above information. well, it must be understood that today ukraine is completely dependent on fuel imports, so in addition to what was listed, there is also the issue of logistics, that is, the ability to supply the appropriate volumes. and we understand that fuel is consumed not only by people who move their own cars, but also by the agricultural sector, and autumn is a period of active field work and is consumed by the armed forces the enemy continues to attack, we heard information that something was destroyed in kryvyi rih, a sufficiently large

oil depot was destroyed, that is, the enemy does not allow the creation of large reserves of fuel. more money, and as far as is known, work is currently being created to create, so to speak , mobile or temporary fuel storage facilities - this is necessary in order to to balance such peak jumps, but this can also affect world oil prices in the same way, they also change and it is quite difficult to predict them, because russia is also trying to use this as an economic weapon, i think that the recent decision about which was very positive i talked a lot at the international level about the fact that it was decided to introduce a national price ceiling on russian oil, which actually seems to disarm russia, but, unfortunately, it has many

ways to influence the oil market in other ways including there, let's say even there, the provoking of some disturbances, some negative systems of political actions in the producer countries, creatively speaking , you can expect similar jumps, these are actually serious moments. well, in the end, i would say that the demand for oil products will increase, people will return to the country more are moving, business is starting to activate, we can actually observe that the oven has increased so much , by the way, this is all also the demand for fuel, therefore, by balancing limited opportunities with supply and of growing demand, it can also affect this new indicators, the fact that prices decreased in july and august, i believe that this is a positive sign that so far this balance is being ensured. pavel, i wanted to ask you about the return of customs duties on imports from 1 in july, did the ukrainians feel this and did it affect the prices, this is a very good question and

it is quite complicated, in fact, it is worth understanding that we imported from food, we imported goods of the premium segment, mainly with such added value, respectively if tariffs were introduced, the prices of premium products increased, that is, again, it mainly affected such wealthy versions of the population in america , uh, some uh, sausages are expensive, other meat products are expensive there. well, mostly this applies not only to food products, but to household chemicals absolutely it should be understood that our market is still protected from imports due to the devaluation of the hryvnia, i.e. devaluation plus these import duties, and in fact we will not have a lot

of food imports during the coming months, that is, people will not felt the main the mass of the population did not feel this. but again, this is because of the introduction of import duties , it provides additional additional revenues to the budget, this is more than three billion hryvnias every month, and this restrains the devaluation of the hryvnia and, accordingly, restrains food inflation within the country. that is, we can to say that for the main mass of the population that does not buy any premium food and non- food products, it is positive for them. that is, the more affluent sections of the population felt it, yes. and what do you say about the tent tax, well, in general indeed, this is exactly the case as we talked about how bonfires can pay more, in the end

if we talk about food, then the rich consume more imported food , we can also mention alcoholic beverages here and there, of various kinds, maybe even summer fruits and so on, but on the other hand, i also think that this trend may intensify recently . we have observed an increase in ukrainian production, including what can in principle be attributed to elite cheeses and to the types of cheeses there to meat products and so on, that's why i think that this is an impetus for the development of ukrainian agricultural production and the processing industry, it will also be present. well, on the other hand, you need to understand that we import a lot of industrial products and today the processes of restoring destroyed buildings and property and so further, it needs people, or uh, big big import, so here it is obvious that after all, i would talk about certain differentiated approaches and or talk about the fact that those goods that

come for the needs of recovery, they would generally could we go some other way through economic assistance with the participation of international partners or, well, still try to introduce differentiated, let’s say it is possible differentiated vat, it is possible differentiated we are there in this context i would also like to clarify if we are talking about imports and we already mentioned export grain, can we expand the list of goods that we can export? and for example, one by one, if possible , and first of all, after grain, we should export a situation of large-scale aggression showed that this vulnerability of our model when we export a lot of cheap products and we get a lot of income from exports from the regulation because we can a lot a lot of corn there is a lot of low-processed metal there is a lot of other things, our

task in general strategically is to reduce the tonnage export and increased its value, if we say that instead of the old grain, we will export even compound feed, they say that i am already there about flour and other pasta products and so on, it has increased significantly to reduce the load on logistics, this will significantly increase the income from the export of each ton of exported products. and we understand that we will be doomed to the fact that our export logistics will be limited by a similar situation for metal in our country with a drop in the production of metallurgical products, somewhere around the level of 60% in this case, because the enterprises are destroyed or stopped, the chains are broken but nevertheless, the question of the export of which assortment of metal we can provide the actual metal today is needed inside the country, it must be said that eh processing well, this is not only about grain products, we can talk about meat and dairy products, this is a problem

from the point of view of meeting phytosanitary requirements. well , besides that, we actually had good relations with the markets of other countries, here you can mention the african markets, the asian markets, the same china was very interested in importing ukrainian livestock products that is, the key task is to increase the level of processing on the territory of the country and, accordingly , to unload e-e capacity for export and increase added value, that is, incomes that are created in the country, which remain in the country , respectively, tax revenue, and so on. that countries because it is still easier to export finished products than to export raw materials because it is possible to diversify the export routes and lower requirements for transportation conditions, continuing the topic

regarding export logistics, i will forward the question to mr. pavlo in the continuation of this topic, that is, at the moment of today's unblocking of sea agricultural exports, how will it generally affect the situation, well, in particular, on the domestic market, have you already analyzed these processes? yes, we keep our finger on the pulse of this e.e. of the grain agreement, in fact, 2 million tons of grain and oilseeds have already been exported through the counters. i want to emphasize that we are talking not only about grain, but also about oilseeds and sunflower oil. well, let's talk about oil in more detail, what to expect from oil prices, yes. look at the overall pace. it is worth understanding that these three ports that have opened can transship 3.5 million tons of products in a month, and accordingly they are in august, well, about two million tons of e-e

have already been overloaded, that is, again, this potential can be increased two and a half times, and it is extremely important that we export the entire crop, because we have about 18 million tons of e-e. these are the remnants of the old, i am amazed, and somewhere we expect 65 million tons of grain and oil crops in the next season and that is why it is important for us that these three ports work at full capacity, i.e. 2 million tons per month will be exported through the western borders, through these ports somewhere around 3 million tons, and accordingly there are 5 million tons per month multiplied by 12, that's 60 million tons, we'll just export everything we've collected. so, yes, there are already quite large caravans of sports vessels and about 90 ships. it's already happened. and how did it affect the

domestic market? grain prices are rising, so far not so much. actively because we have completed the harvesting company of winter crops that is, we are again very impressed, and if we had launched experts, but we don't have time to export it completely, well, in fact, the prices for grain are increasing, they will continue to increase and why . crops are fodder wheat and fodder corn and fodder barley, they can increase in price by more than 100 dollars per ton to equalize in parity with world prices, this means that fodder will become very expensive for livestock farmers, and we mentioned about oil, since oil is also our ukrainian strategic product. let's figure out what will happen with the prices. yes, the situation is quite interesting. we

must understand that the world market for vegetable oils is now showing a quite serious drop in prices, this is due to the huge reserves of palm oil . in south-east asia and because of the forecasts of a record-breaking soybean crop in south america, so once again the world prices for vegetable oils are decreasing, this means that, in principle, the price in ukraine will freeze to a certain level due to the opening of ports, but it will not compare with world prices. that is, it will not be very high because, again, of dumping on the part of other vegetable oils, and again, it is worth understanding that our competitor is the russian federation, and they also export sunflowers to export markets and thus lower the price in the maritime region , respectively. this is not very good for processors, for

producers, e.e., sunflower valiy, but it is somewhat better for the population. that is, we will not see a significant increase in oil prices. well, when we hear about what russia still competes with us there in certain types of groups of goods. it sounds strange in light of the sanctions that are being imposed on this country. that is, we understand that sanctions are not enough, so if we say in certain groups, russia is putting sticks in our wheels. well, for me in general, it sounds strange that after what russia has committed, as well as crimes against humanity , it has committed a large-scale aggression that anyone of them has any business at all. this is in general. if from the point of view of common sense, it is absurd, but the world is cruel and it is clear that well, first of all countries have their own violence against the population,

business absolutely cares about profits, and that 's why ukraine and russia operate on similar markets in some directions, in particular with regard to grain, and we know that russia actually has a lot of grain and has already stolen ukrainian grain from the names of the temporarily occupied territories how wide will the sanctions be or, let's say, will this competition between ukraine and russia in the food markets decrease? they have the impression that the latest will be sanctions that specifically concern the food markets because humanitarian issues, we see his intervention in the actual situation, according to the ukrainian grain expert, we know that in parallel, by the way, it was possible that this was a certain condition, in parallel, the sanctions on the export of food from the russian federation were eased, well, it is obvious that, as in the countries of the third and fourth world, it was eased the problem of hunger, unfortunately, in

ukraine, this did not alleviate the problem of the killing of people and below the infrastructure. and i, by the way, wanted to ask, if we mentioned russia, what is the situation with inflation there? not it is ambiguous because if we are talking about uh, the general inflation is not enough, then it is high there, but not very much because of the strengthening of the ruble, because of the abnormal strengthening of the ruble, and even there the prices of some goods are decreasing, but on the other hand, uh, it is temporary and it is clear that the effect from the sanctions it has such a lava uh character and accordingly it is possible to expect a devaluation of the ruble in the coming months, accordingly the development of inflation, but if we are talking about food inflation then uh it will probably be stronger than uh price growth

in general, because there are many such structural problems in the russian agricultural sector, in particular, agra does not like the government's policy of establishing export duties regarding e-e, and again, the strengthening of the ruble, they do not receive money because of this, and accordingly, they often restrain e-e sales of their products, interesting the fact that this season russia will harvest a record-breaking amount of wheat in itself and, nevertheless, the climatic conditions yes. that is, they were just lucky this year. but nevertheless, exports will be insignificant, again, because the farmers do not they want to sell grain at low prices. well , at prices that they consider low. in general, we

expect that food prices will rise in russia, and especially for imported categories of goods. what do you think, when that moment will come in the time period russia will feel very these economic consequences of the sanctions are painful, well, russia is actually feeling the consequences and it is not for nothing that putin is very aggressively advocating for the reduction of these sanctions. i think that the energy attacks on europe in the fall and winter of this year they will show how much russia will try to blackmail the world, europe in particular, to cancel the sanctions, but i would in no way exaggerate the expectations about how russia should feel about the economic sanctions on russia, a very large country, a sufficiently flexible country in terms of ensuring its own provision of its own needs and in the end the population is, well, for the most part, it has low standards. let's put it this way. and it is precisely because of

this . this country is in a state of such limited consumption and they will only be from this council, that is , other steps are now needed. i think that the armed forces of ukraine will have a much greater influence on the future of the russian federation on our victory than we have determined that there will be a possible record cotton harvest e-e this now we will not rush ahead eh by the word to finish the topic of inflation in the country the aggressors eh bloomberg publication bloomberg has calculated that the russian economy is falling faster and deeper with eh eight and three it seems like the percentages of the decline for the year uh, and what's more, this is still an incomplete picture of what it could be. let 's finish our conversation, after all, with our inflation

, what can be done about it, it can be reduced like this. by the way, oleg ustenko, the president's economic adviser, is convinced. there are several channels thanks to which it will be possible to do this , which ones we will hear. the first channel, e-e, with which the national bank of ukraine works, e-e, is an increase in the discount rate. inflation, apart from this e channel, there is e such a sufficiently e-e thorough e-e mechanism that is used , including by the government of the country, tariffs for housing and communal services, they will not increase . but globally, to reduce the level of inflation, to reduce the level of increasing inflation, it is possible that there will be a

period of time after the war. for example, the international experience of which countries in the situation with inflation, we can use today, and on whom to lean, it is necessary to distinguish international experience in the fight against inflation in support of the agricultural sector, that is, it is important to understand that inflation is important from the point of view of supporting agricultural producers, that is high prices should be on the other hand, we should once again subsidize the population so that they buy food products, as a positive, we can say that in fact the level of work of the national bank is very high and they are trying to curb both food inflation and non-food inflation, and what few people know about, few people talk about is the so-called

secondary effects of food inflation, this phenomenon is observed in countries with a weak monetary system, this is when high food prices increase inflationary expectations for non-food products that is, a person saw that food in supermarkets is more expensive there and he expects that not only food will become more expensive, but also a laptop, a refrigerator, and so on. and this will again promote inflation and how positive, we can say that the nbu knows that this mechanism of secondary effects works in ukraine and, accordingly, the nbu will also do everything so that food inflation does not spin this flywheel of general inflation in general, therefore we can say that next year in particular, its second half, we can see from the lower inflation in ukraine, ruslan yaroslavenko, wait a minute. you have,

well, i must say that none of the countries have access to such a level of development. ukraine has not experienced such conditions. i do not believe in the ability national in the effectiveness of the actions of the national bank which they use they use they are able to slow down if the upper ones from cylindering but in no case do not fulfill inflation in principle the cause of ventilation is the most important way taming inflation in ukraine is the maximum rapid dynamic recovery of the production of all aspects of production and food products and not food products when non-food products and in the end it is a matter of expectations of course as long as there is a high level of military risks until there will be all kinds of such signals, negative, er, infectious expectations will accelerate inflation, so positive expectations should be tried to form the communication of the national bank about which when i said it was positive, but really, only news from the fronts, only news about victory, they can allow significant police

and expect in fact, thank you, and with this call to action, we can sum it up like this: we will restore production, we will restore the economy, we will restore our country, yaroslav was a pity, the deputy economist director of the national institute of strategic studies and pavlo martyshev, an analyst at the center for food and land use research of the kyiv school of economics. thank you.