a person was punished by a non-violent position well, here are all the goebbels collective putinists, they could just now drag out their old song about the fact that the west is trying to pounce on them and hang, so to speak, individual criminals on the birch trees near kaluga and announce a mobilization for this whole thing but they didn't go for it, you mentioned the so-called social catastrophe that could unfold in russia well, why would there be a catastrophe in anything political fines for putin are very simple after one of these two events the liberation of kherson and its completion of the crimean bridge, and he was simply removed from power, we heard again the next day, the lake informs us during the intermission that comrade putin made a number of serious mistakes in the ukrainian issue and the stability of health here at a funny age, he can no longer have these obligations, a

good date for this, even there is a jubilee in my opinion, on the seventh of october, he turned 70 years old. how is everything about putin fake? 70 let and 72 years old, this is what happened in detail, a whole chapter of putin's biography i recommend to all viewers in the book by pribyvalovsky effeschenskogo, it's called "corporation" and why did they drag it to the last moment, it's about those forces that could, so to speak, accelerate his political career well, because six months blood is pouring, so for six months there were extremely powerful signals, in particular, from the united states, there is a freeze and seizure of assets, but anyway they somehow swallowed the whole thing, which is so appreciated now, time is already saw and putin and his entourage were assigned to the

mediators. well, you 16 continue to hope to conclude eh soon all this is rhetoric or the destruction of the ukrainian. the truce was first pushed to kiev by dear macronoy shultz with these projects, they were sent to a well-known address like the russian ship, then she probably didn’t pay for it, and i paid a reasonable price, as i already mentioned defoe’s complete freedom of hands on yuzhny the caucasus siri, or the blame once again sold completely to the allies of leonard akb to armenia, shameful by the way of the behavior of the leader of armenia pashinen, putin betrays the armenian people again and again, and he runs and the

forum e-e after putin, we lick his ass already after the armenian people get along with him, they hoped to the last at the moment that everything will end there, such cigarettes can be sold to the people as such a fake victory, or the world. already uh, they wanted not only the two crimeas, but also part of them in the kherson and zaporozhye regions, they saved our counterparts, and so on, and the truce. what did they not hope for? we will end the supply of weapons to ukraine, we would see if you lived, what demonstrations were organized in europe, except, well, on september 8, all these hopes were the day of a crushing defeat, baden simply

gathered the leader of all european states sent his the power of the secretary of state in kiev will learn his support and the minister of defense ramshtein will announce a new one in principle that overflows all previous increases, the aid package is the answer to the war, putin must lose the war, i agree with you, dear andrii andriyovich, and to strengthen your words an extremely important fact, we understand that it is okay to rely on various pro-russian figures , but in any case they talked about moving the date of the so-called fake referendum on the temporarily occupied lands, i.e. earlier they were talking about september, now they are talking about november and now the kremlin is also continuing negotiations with indonesia, it is about the

possible participation or non-participation of putin in this international forum, and it looks like they will try to roll out one or another of their package their package offer, but what kind could be this package offer, they can't just take and withdraw their troops from ukraine, including crimea , although well, in principle, in six months, it could be so, well, you know, all these proposals will be resolved now on the battlefield 8 would be crossed out by everyone, it does not work out today in the states that ukraine is not ready for negotiations from the zapozicheskie sredi on the future of the states of europe and the world. it is relevant, we know that a new security architecture is always

formed after each world war by the victorious states, that is, after the napoleonic wars. this was the vienna congress of the great powers after the first world war. мировойны подцдам и та and that's why now the plans of the losing proposals are of no interest to anyone. i am the european hotectors. they came in handy for you. it will be determined by the winning states, and the first of them will be the state that made the biggest contribution to this victory. this is ukraine. well, unfortunately, i have to end our conversation i am once again grateful to dear andrii andriyovich for this frank conversation on the air of the espresso tv channel, and i want to remind our viewers that andrii piontkovskyi, a political scientist who is in in washington, israeli military expert david

handelman will be working in the studio of the espresso tv channel. we will, of course, analyze the specifics of the so -called protracted war. well, and the situation on our fronts separately. i congratulate you, dear david, in the studio of the espresso tv channel. well, first of all, i would like you to react to the words of the head of the pentagon loyda austin, who characterized the situation as an undoubted manifestation of the success of the armed forces of ukraine, of course, we are talking about the kharkiv direction and the southern direction. to what extent was the advance the fact that there is a simultaneous offensive in the south-west in khersonsk in the kherson direction ? kharkiv itself does not last long. it is realistic to show that at least the ukrainian team believes that it can afford it in terms of prepared reserves for the development of the offensive by itself eh already shows

good preparation further as we have seen in the last day such an advance is already unexpected about the depth of eh in the area of ​​balakleera of course it it is already doubtful that it will be successful at the tactical level, if it is able to gain a foothold on the achieved borders, it can turn into an operational success. further success depends on how soon each side will be able to transfer reserves to the ukrainian side . we are talking about the development of success for russia. for this , it is possible if the attack is not e-epirotated in general, then at least it would be stopped at individual participations, but of course , in terms of surprises, in terms of ego, it is different, so the success of the video is at the tactical level, and then it is possible operationally, in any case, we understand that the aggressor state is the russian federation, and they

will be forced to throw new and new reserves into the furnace of war. i don't know what they have with reserves. well, but the third so-called corps did not show itself in the best way, as far as it is possible to come here to the children of seba, there are still rules , in the main, i did not introduce myself, they were torn to foreigners , such a one was sent, i did not see tacty -born messages that some parts of them are valid for your battle. the fact that this is a strategic change in the position because in fact what is the main problem of the russian army in this war that is historical when the russian army, the soviet army was primarily based on its numerical superiority, that is, the war in ukraine , they do not have a collective superiority, this is the reason there there are such low operational densities in the numerous characteristics of me that allowed such a breakthrough because there is a lot of land, it is not enough to break the first line after

it is possible to breed tens of kilometers to move almost without value because they do not have any second standards everywhere at all it is necessary to collect reserves from neighboring areas to plug the breakthrough there is not enough manpower what the russian army is not used to now due to the fact that it collided with such a big opponent, and often simply does not know how to solve such a problem because the usual one remained in the snow, the main problem for the russians is precisely that when the offensive is carried out on the two opposite parts of the front in ukraine, the internal communication of our case, the screen of need, can transfer reserves even between these directions, it is not a fact that all of this will be needed , but at least it can in russia of stone communication, external exactly, as you said, if it is necessary to transfer from one part to another, the entire front is more than 1,300 km, very large complexities in terms of logistics, and again, the whole

problem why is it not necessary to transfer at all because they don’t have enough on each and every site they have everything banal there is not enough personnel for such a long one well, why because they don’t have moved to the phase of general and partial mobilization. well, they could even go the other way, they could raise, for example, the payment of their contractors, for example, twice. and they also failed their plans, promises. what are the deposits that they offer on a short-term contract for depressed, let's say, small regions, this is already very large sums, and the residents of more prosperous cities and the fact that there would be a need they offer some real astronomical sums for them to go. and what is this mobilization? the problem is that for the same reason why war

is generally forbidden to be called a war in russia, and it is only a special military operation. the entire propaganda political line. how is this war broadcasted in russia? how is the nechestvo limited to what professionals and volunteers do, this is not in your case, don't get up, the country is huge - it 's a dream, uh, in a day, mobilization is not needed, and uh, ordinary people, let's say it shouldn't apply to in a real case, theoretically, of course, they can not resort to such a tool as mobilization. well, this will mean reformatting the entire approach, first of all, they will not have to admit that the special war the operation failed and what is needed is exactly war, as such war is in the russian public consciousness . mobilization, all propaganda must be rebuilt well, the main thing is that it will be a recognition that the plan still failed and it is impossible to continue saying that everything is going according to plan if

you suddenly need mobilisation. how can you do it at the same time? 6 months says that today the plan is mobilisation . the movement planned mobilisation. in a year, not in 6 months, you will need mobilisation. there is no, so we have as much as possible. this directly follows a shortage, but they came out. well, on the other hand, they entered into a big war against ukraine with an attempt to occupy us with a plan to take kyiv in three days. this is simply ridiculous. as far as i i understand that they had no other operational plan, although due to certain reasons they achieved some success in the south, but this success was not military, it was the success of their special services, which prepared their agents, so to speak, in separate areas for deployment in the south. to wait for them like this well, because according to rumors shoigu and gerasimo

are already somewhat removed from making important decisions at the level of the general staff and the ministry of defense , whether or not they remained after them, not the fact that they have some strategic money as stalin said, we don't have eh reserve denburgs, these generals will decide the generals. in any case, they must operate with the number of active assets that are some eh brilliant now strategic habib even if someone comes up with an idea, i will help because eh - е нариад силы , a tool that does not allow a person to do anything else. the military service, apparently, they expected that the same thing would be possible in the north, which we have, after creating the

first shock and tremor, after the first shock, it is possible to succeed not only in establishing a new government and further. one unified management of the army and the ukrainian society, after it failed, they found out that they have a much smaller grouping than the ukrainian army, not everything is good these months, it looks like that because the original plan was not so much a purely military as an intelligence political holiday well, what do you think, how can they try to act in the current situation? now let's go there with an attempt, so to speak, to scale the scenarios that were eventually indicated by generals zabrodskyi and

zaluzhnyi . and in the eastern administration, in the southern one, it is also mentioned that they might want to return to kiev. well, all of this, of course, requires large resources , which are now removed theoretically if changes are made by political people. will invite to the right yes well, again, due to the fact that this article is not an analytical reviewer and so on, this article is from a person who not only knows the situation himself takes the decision - it's directly on the commander-in-chief, that is, she's looking upwards. not just what he sees. e planeme to

the center is the transfer of strikes to the territory of russia, only crimea is the second district territory , therefore he considers that it is necessary to minimize the gap in the long-range means between russia and ukraine, therefore in ukraine we need much more long-range means to let’s say this will bring the war to the russians. as indicated by the collateral statute, it says that the main reason is why the russian society either supports the war or is neutral because it is a war. at least partially, if not liquidated, well, at least it would be partially reduced, and here without punishment there, i think that it can influence, and in the political plan it is clear that this article did not come out just like that yesterday, the day before the rammstein conference, and the issue of further resolutions will be discussed and this program statement that ukraine, except for these

220 additional sorrel, i know that much more long-range milling cutters are needed. eh, the whole unfolding to the other side well, this is the feeling i personally have, so the pentagon was waiting for such an article extremely strongly, because for ukrainian military history this is, in principle, a precedent. it is extremely boldly, extremely correct, but at the same time it is a certain military-political signal for the pentagon made publicly and we understand that a fundamentally new story is really beginning in the relations of the aggressor state with the entire western world, we do not know how far everything will go. it is possible that putin will somehow try to downplay it and to localize the war against ukraine without turning it into a war with the whole world, but on the other hand, we understand that in the west there is a feeling of losing

any fear of putin's unpredictability it is also about all the threats about the dirty atomic bomb and, in particular, about the use of tactical nuclear weapons. as far as we understand , extremely powerful signals were sent to the kremlin from the western capitals, well, in particular from the pentagon. i think they could have been warned about it in simple language, it depends tactician says that, of course, among the units on the russian side, the rejection of such traverses is precisely the ussr and the west, it is possible to understand that some long-range means are possible in ukraine and will be given to the speakers, as long as it is not about giving nuclear weapons then parity does not work , therefore, in this regard, a warning is necessary . let's say from the west, and in any case, he is talking about what is next. i think that in any case the company will not be

easy. what should the west do, and then he says that there are 1025 units of forces - how did he emphasize that it depends on how the ambition of the ukrainian team is expressed? they will swing more if they are given enough means, in your opinion, what to expect from the russian scenario in the fall, do you remember in star wars there was such a series, the empire strikes back? of course not now. our armed forces are ready for this situation, they do not have formal resources, but i do not believe that they will not try to take revenge now in order to try to lead to one or another negotiation line, how serious is it again, could there be

now a second attempt to invade kyiv" er, the russian retreat, but there is no such thing on the territory of belarus yet, so they have not helped anyone territorially, they can start the transfer of forces to belarus and form a darnoy gruppirovsky there, but again, where will they get enough personnel if they have a problem now, even uh, with the fact that they already wanted a woman in that direction, while i think at least for the near future, the ukrainian promotion will be occupied by ukrainian promotion, and only then uh, think about where they will be able to resume their

income, how is everything resting on resources, they have such a big stretched front now, you have so many resources to create some punches, conduct some big own uh offensive now we see that the immediate task of them to disrupt the ukrainian offensive is possible. will it be more or less satisfactorily done ? the order would be the cs of four military players of russia, uh, created such a corps on its territory, and of the four, they made one, so far, no one is quite complete, let ’s see at their pace. things of some size, the next one , of course, for such a big war in ukraine, as it turned out, the modern russian army also

lacks these 68. was the basis of the format of how they were embarrassed by the war against georgia, it was remember, it was enough and they would have classes again for how many days, uh, completed all their uh tasks , put up flags, and so on. the russian one didn’t work out, and that’s why they didn’t get stuck, but with some actions of the authorities, it’s not safe , and besides, mostly, who goes, uh, you have a short-term contract ? you will beat such countries and so on from the inhabitants of the capital - this concerns the woman, unless someone with a single thought wants to go, yes, that is why, as they say

, god is high, the king is far away somewhere, a special military operation, not a war that affects everyone, exactly how it looks, how many corpses will wake up russia i don't know 50,000 killed, there should be 150-300,000 well, because this is an extremely serious tool to force the kremlin to withdraw from the war and so everything in the near future will be such a number that it will disrupt politics in the plan, while they will be looking for the physical one , when the real number will be recruited, how will we get out now, the contract workers will recruit up to 60 years old, i will recruit in prisons, etc. it turns into some other ways to make some gestures and of good will to make some statements that it is not

painful and you wanted to and so on. morally speaking, the entire effect on society is far from a fact that no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, 150,000 dead. how is this pouring out precisely on the russian public, the last moral time? and what to do with technology, in particular, i don’t know in quotation marks without quotation marks, high-precision russian missiles. so we see that, well, we hear information about the ongoing negotiations with north korea in order for it to supply something , well, the zyran drones have already become a legendary story, the whole problem is a very big war , the cannon consumption is not even so much all-round the rocket is a typical characteristic of the projectiles , so well, the americans have so far said that there were purchases of only terrorist or we have information that the russians were not contacted. it is clear that russia denies this, and this whole story of the session drones. while we have not seen them at the front, but if they

contact it's early, it's nice that iranian drones aren't the same as western novorossiya, so it's not enough if the screen today seems to be possible to take the early problems with tanks , the problem with gunners, words from ammunition it is clear that in the near future it will be enough, even uh , that's all about the mood in ukraine. - that time they will be enough, then it is possible to start saving already. to be on what ukraine can do on the battlefield, and

how will it hurt russia, precisely so that there is nothing to shoot at, but simply that it is a driving force, so much so that it has already begun to influence the situation directly . the so-called winter wars, we understand that russian logistics had already failed during the preparation of the belarusian bridgehead, we are talking about december, january and the beginning of february. we have also seen the provision of troops and logistics, and in their attempts to break through in the chernihiv sumy and kyiv directions , the winter can be quite severe, they are in the south, in fact, in the steppes. i don’t know what they are ready for, but what forms this war could take. well, because the generals zabrodsky outlined a term that would most likely extend into the 23rd year. well, how does it look like, despite the

fragments, tactical successes, possible operational last days, it is not a fact that at such a pace, of course the attacks continue further, eh, the ukrainian border. in general, in winter, specifically. in terms of logistics, it's a little easier than it is possible to come quickly 4 most likely, all the usual russian supply problems will appear, like the winter form of heating, etc. well, in principle, what depends on ukrainian actions if there will be a russian offensive, then we will say that the provision of the troops with some means for the war in the winter will not be the biggest russian

problem. i will have more logistics . gray autumn. when there will be mud and all the roads will be washed away, the main problem will be when winter freezes up, in principle the last one will be even easier, but dear davyda. and how long can the russian military intervention group on the right bank of the dnieper last? we are talking about their military units, i don’t know, there are 15 or 20 or 22 thousand of them, which are located near kherson, the right bank of the dnieper, their group may fall into the operational encirclement of the problem, you understand with the e-e supply, how we now know the e-e snovlenie through the bridges under the dnieper practically of nature, they are attacked by barrages, boats, even helicopters, and so on. well, as we see

, there has not yet been any complete suppression of them. additional video by you, the ukrainian team, the more pressure there is on this group, the more we don't need to tell all the forces of the means, including the internet, artillery shells that they probably won't be able to deliver through the dnieper at this rate but if i feel that factors can ultimately lead to it will be necessary to either evacuate or surrender, but the package for you, again, is not a fact, something will happen in the near future, it is a fact that while they have not fallen so much, i envy the strength of the blows on it to us direction, we will be able to apply what the ukrainian army , eh, it depends on how much will be needed with shells of other means, so let's look at least at the ukrainian one, well, unfortunately, the time of our conversation has run out, thank you very much