there are very powerful negative and oppressive sentiments inside the russian federation, well, even if you remember the history, the russian federation has collapsed three times in the last 100 years. residents in the occupied territories of ukraine were such that not too much people even under occupation were not too happy to participate in the referendum as they are now with the mood and whether the russians will succeed in scaring people so much that they will still be forced to leave and to vote in these pseudo-referendums for the fact that some other fake republics were created. imagine voting for a referendum two days before it starts, and it continues, there

are currently 13 and 13 district commissions, about the rest there are more than 700 e- there should still be such precincts in the territory of khmelnytskyi region. well, of course, some of the 50 precincts have already been released. nothing is known about them. it is not known whether they are open or there are any premises or commissions. the part that announced the missions is some kind of half-marginals. and on half of the button there are traitors from these administrations of the occupiers, this means that it is completely fiction and no one needs to even go. i think that the occupiers will find acidification of actors even from the crimea, they will bring them from which to play the role of the members of the commission is, if necessary, more professional than these members of the commission themselves, who are

half-aware of their status, most likely, because they would hardly be happy with the 10-year appointment program, for which they are considered unemployed and pensioners who received russian aid, e.e., humanitarian aid in russian, left their personal data in the headquarters, by the way, they are only citizens, not citizens of russia, that is, the bearer of a russian passport, there are no commissions, that is, most likely, they just got someone else’s data and did not really take advisers who are ready to serve even for 10 years. so it will be an imitation and it is not important here what the people of kherson think, but what do they think of the russians? by the number of school-age children who went to

russian schools according to the russians' own colors, that is , the so-called party government of the administration of the kherson region, 15,500 children went to school up to 90,99 and formally open schools , this 15,000,500 is 11.2% their students of school age who were present in kherson region before the transformation cake, that is, despite the terror and intimidation of the occupiers against children and parents in rural areas, despite the level of handouts that are given to parents, the parents of which children this is what they gave and sold to russia for only 11 years. about 80%, let's say

, parents - this is a category of the able-bodied population, where at least half of the electorate, let's say , russia is going to see such referendums, of course, pensioners there maybe a little more percentage, but even among the parents who gave to russian things, not all of them support integration , there are many of them, or they simply say that the child needs to adjust she should not sit somewhere at home , let it be said at least somehow it is normal to disturb position, but this still does not mean that such people absolutely support some kind of integration there, moreover, all of them. therefore, nevertheless, these are more or less objective criteria for such an assessment, other assessment criteria are the fact that they do not they could just conduct some kind of survey, since 80% of kherson residents simply do not have the means of communication that we

russians would like to contact . which are required communications in the territory of the kherson region e at these pictures have a very bad internet connection with a mobile operator and, conversely, operators in ukraine who can provide very bad internet from the kherson region through russian routers. through e-e documents such as viber on facebook , e-e, russians simply had the ability to quickly survey the effects of them therefore, this is a survey on a relatively fake body painted from the ceiling. well, the kherson people, if my colleague was right,

i would like it to be so. because this is the collapse of russia. where probably this year, if they really wanted to and they tried to lead to total mobilization and even kherson, which, of course, will turn their weapons against the occupiers immediately. they will not be as it pays only once in the 13th century in the 13th issue of the occupied regions to walk in front of the permanent mongols at a push, so this is not a campaign. the situation in donetsk when the mobilized here try instead of simply handing over the ukrainian cities to the u.s. armed forces, we instead desert with weapons and try to park with a fight through the christian curtains, the tyrivian curtains. they will flee to crimea, they will not flee russia with weapons. the more alcohol they have, the more they will find some

use for these weapons. therefore, i believe that russia is not ready to dare to make attempts at stabilization now, because this will immediately ignite the optical housing. thank you, mr. volodymyr molchanov, kherson political scientist and economist, as well as pavlo lysyanskyi, director of the institute of strategic research and security and a human rights defender, were with us, and now let's talk about how the russian economy reacted to the news of the last few days first of all, about the referendum, and now also about the partial mobilization, eh, with us, serhiy furs, investment banker, economic expert, dragon capital town, oleg penzin, executive director of the economic discussion club, we say to you good morning, gentlemen, have you heard eh fresh news from vladimir putin, what do you think ? to hear what you

think about it, it didn't become some kind of incredible. i think it's a surprise to no one, but what are the first conclusions to be drawn , it's falling, sergey, let's start with you as an invented plan and you were wiped off your feet there and he was pressured and told to finish faster he looked weak and in order for me to not look weak makia but i can't miss and after hearing all this even from the eastern leaders he came back and decided to lead this party of war and staged this hysteria you know with the referendum let's go in two days. well, why not yesterday? that's why this tantrum is an emotional reaction , and it can only be gratifying, because emotional reactions never lead to positive long-term results,

so there is no panic in the kremlin. putin putin often compared to a poker player, and he even used the word bluff in his speech. to be more precise, he didn't bluff, but this is an interesting moment, and he said it while openly threatening the use of nuclear weapons, that is, in principle, it seems that the path to the last arguments after the counteroffensive under the raisin passed very quickly and these latest counterarguments are of course mobilization and the threat of nuclear weapons p. oleg. what do you think of the evolution of our great strategist putin? well, i think that, first of all, it was not unexpected for anyone, because i am absolutely sure that what now it is happening as expected for the top

leadership of ukraine and for the leadership of the european union of the united states of america, as for threats with nuclear weapons, listen, if this is the first time we are hearing this, well, in fact, in my opinion, there have been such statements so many times that, by the way, there have been corresponding reactions from the united states as well america, great britain, therefore, another threat, another wave of the nuclear wand. well, let's be honest, no one was surprised in any way. unfortunately, in reality, from my point of view, what is happening now is much strengthens the situation that currently exists in the confrontation between russia and ukraine, unfortunately, it will definitely increase the number of victims, and unfortunately, the war will continue, that is, instead of withdrawing from the territory of ukraine and looking for

ways to to enter into peaceful ways, at least some kind of negotiations. the russian federation continues to aggravate the general situation at the moment . uh, screw up putin's desire to continue the war and deepen it, you know. i want to say that the next wave will surely be in relation to those countries that uh help the russian federation today to bypass the sanctions barrier. that is, we have already heard about uh- e previous conversation between the president of the united states of america and the leader of china regarding the possible

consequences of the withdrawal of american investments from the chinese economy, we have already heard very strong statements from the european leaders regarding the opinion of on the occasion of holding so-called fake referendums in the occupied territories of ukraine, that is, the world at the moment, and i understand that it is heading for the next wave of powerful sanctions and even greater isolation of the russian federation from the civilized world, i want to support here in parallel to the fact that right now those countries that occupied a mediocre position are beginning to occupy and in the plan to join the isolation of russia, this can be seen from this system of peace and russian cards that were accepted that were accepted in turkey and kazakhstan and armenia no longer accepting kazakhs there yesterday from today in turkey, kazakhstan and

armenia, i don’t know if kyrgyzstan is left on this list, but if it is, it is the only one. and this is just a way for further isolation, and yes, you rightly said that it is as in - but if on february 24, putin went to colin thinking that he had good cards and everyone around him thought that he had good cards , now he is walking an even bigger deer holding in his hands what everyone has already considered that there is nothing there and therefore when you are with very bad you start with cards to cook and everyone knows that you are blocking uh and your only option is to stand up from the table, turn over, turn over all 100 and run out into the street, then your game is not very adequate, in fact, still get out of the pessimistic forecast let's assume that this is all a general mobilization which was only called that in order to hide their own children and all their friends there, and so on from the army. and for example

, the russians did not believe it and responded happily to it, but according to their arab habit, they humbly went to the military commissars and after this is the main question for me, will russia be able to rebuild its economy on a military basis in order to urgently produce a million new tanks, a million new pilots and tankers , etc. will go to mobilization punctuation, see er after mr. putin's address to the russian federation was announced to the citizens of the russian federation , a sharp increase in er addresses was recorded to the system with the two biggest questions, the

first question is how to leave the territory of the russian federation and the second question is how to avoid mobilization. that is, this is a surge of requests. by the way, this information is in the public domain . yes, actually, yes, yes, you have shown the dynamics of popularity, that's why you can expect that russian citizens, even those subject to mobilization , will now go to the military committees. i think it's not worth it. i think it's worth looking at how much today migration processes outside the russian federation will increase, this is the first moment, but i’m sorry, just before that there was a survey that was also interesting. i understand that the russian government was trying to understand more about its citizens and 70% of russians do not have a foreign passport, so i don’t know where

they can go now to leave without knowing where to run, to point your heels so as not to end up near the google thread and those who have a foreign passport, the answer to your questions about the possibility of the russian federation to activate look at the military-industrial complex. before those statements, he held a meeting with representatives of the industrial complex and set appropriate tasks there, but let's clearly find out what the russian federation can really do today. it can remove something from conservation was laid during the times of the soviet union. that is, these weapons are, well, the end of the 80s, the beginning of the 90s, the first moment, the second, in order to recreate the production of the latest weapons at the moment, you need to have those components and those, let's say the materials of which the russian

federation does not currently produce. we understand very well that the latest russian technology includes thai microchips, e-e fire control systems e-e from e-e france, optics and thermal imagers are german, all this was and all this was purchased when not there was such strict control over the sanctions policy today it is impossible, i.e. reproduction of the latest weapons is hardly realistic at the moment, but the use of old weapons actually will definitely be carried out there is a large enough number of non-combatant victims, and this is a big problem, so i repeat once again to quickly rebuild the russian economy, start producing the latest weapons, no, but take them out of conservation and bring the old equipment of the times of the soviet union to the possibility of military use, yes, mr. sergey. what do you think? will

the russians succeed, i'm not sure, look at the budget, if they could, if not urbanization or, in part, mobilization - this is again an attempt to get between the dots. they did not mobilize before this, because they also know all sociology, i don’t know if this idea is unpopular and they know that it is harmful to the economy. that is why they do not do it, and they do a large-scale mobilization partially, which allows me to think that putin should somehow count on the humiliation, should somehow give an answer -he started to beat too loudly and he did so, but this is again a semi-defense, eh, clearly, no one knows what it is and what it is eaten with. yes, and that is why you will again be able to mobilize some people to mobilize there in the regions in a certain care, they do not cope with it well too

will the russian economy be rebuilt, even military rails, first of all, i don't know what military rails are in the 21st century, it doesn't work like that anymore, it has to be north korea to rebuild and secondly, i'm not sure how to do it, just what they think it is to do and it is such that most likely it is just rhetoric so far so threatening because all these steps are suicidal for the economy and that is why they were avoided and i do not think that they will be in too much of a hurry now well, that is one of the explanations actually what uh why partially what they can call up, as it were, only those who had already been in the army or are in the reserve there and so on, looking at it interestingly, what is the risk of the reserve in the reserve, so look at the dirty mobilization, you also do it, well, in ukraine, we saw it in you, mobilization took place in us and you yes, but this does not mean that on the first day everyone came, everyone was taken away, that's right, there is a demand for certain

specialists. at first there were those who came themselves, and then i was certainly in demand for specialists. mild and not pro-userbian, yes, conditionally speaking. when you want to translate to me, you are not representing the economy for military purposes. we all said before that when the mobilization finally reaches some people in moscow and st. petersburg, then some oppressive sentiments in russia will begin to boil. well, this partial mobilization will eventually reach the big cities of russia, well, look, i will try to answer. well, it will cover the entire russian federation, although i will once again repeat the points on the contract registration of russians, they stood in all cities, including in moscow, and those

who had a desire. well, just so that we understand those who had a desire and did not have money, they signed contracts that way, and we saw with you that the total number of those who wanted was extremely small, that is why this is the so-called in part , the mobilization that we are talking about with you now. from the point of view of the russians, it has to solve the issue of physical filling. so, i'm sorry, the parts that will go to ukraine are cannon fodder. i think that the actual consequence of these actions will be an increase the contingent of russian troops in ukraine is clear , but the level of capability of these armed forces of these units, which is to be decided in principle, will be extremely low, because there are not enough people to call them up, they must also be trained, they must be armed in some way,

that is, everything must be done in order to from the point of view of the russians, it should not just be, well, it is really one hundred percent cannon fodder, so in this situation it will not be quick, even if they announced a partial mobilization here today, there will be a process that will take at least two or three months for that that some more or less combat-capable units would be formed. and it will already be. they are simply put there, so i repeat once again from my point of view, the consequence of this partial mobilization will be the maximum increase of the sacrifices that the russian federation will bear in ukraine, sergei, because we in russia will see such pictures as we see, for example, these in pseudo-republics, when wives lie down in front of the buses on which their mobilized

husbands are transported and say that i will not let them go anywhere, i have two or three children here, they need to be fed. where are you taking my husband ? i do not believe that such a situation will exist in russia, they all this, all these forgeries, tried as much as possible not to disturb russian society , and partly because of the mobilization of such situations as in the lpr and the energy that turned into women's republics. it won't happen in russia again. they try to do it gently if they wanted to do it that way. it would really be a killer for the economy, but in the budget for support because you do n't care about me, nobody votes there. well, there in russia he also doesn't particularly vote yes, but for putin this social legitimacy is important, how not to twist and without a significant increase in the repressive apparatus, without a significant increase in repression, definitely putting pugacheva in prison, you will not

do it, so i don't think so, again, you it is difficult to predict the actions of russia, but i do not think that they will plan to do such a thing. moreover, now they see before them a picture of tests in iran, and i do not think that they want to repeat it, because, again, iran has a much stronger repressive apparatus , nevertheless, the people are proven up to a certain level why do they go out on the streets and protest and this is how we understand putin's terrible nightmare, he doesn't want this, i don't know for sure, there is no information about the russian stock markets today and yesterday there was a very rapid fall, somewhere around seven percent is it is it an important factor er is it what does it mean no well look this is an absolutely expected thing because any of it is perfectly er is 2 + 2 well that is, we have to understand that er support of fake referenda

of partial mobilization, this is clearly a strengthening of sanctions on the part of the european union, on the part of the civilized world against the russian federation , the strengthening of sanctions and a powerful blow to enterprises is a powerful blow to the economy, well, that is, what can be expected from a powerful blow to the economy, without a doubt the drop in profitability is undoubtedly the stagnation of the enterprise, and as a result, we saw the immediate reaction of the moscow sites, well, that is, everything fell quite seriously, well, that is, business very quickly adds up to 2 + 2. what is there at all? why is the stock market of russia still there at least there are some elections, but on the other hand there is a saying in the stock market that what has fallen by 90%. at first it fell by 80 and then by

two times, but now we see a fall somewhere around that levels after all the investors have left and after the stock houses have been collapsing for a long time and somewhere there they were trading at some very meager level, they also managed to fall in half there because this escalation uh, it is clear that this is an internal escalation that creates a lot of risks, it is not only the risks of sanctions, because sanctions are somehow already included in the price. and the risks of internal, somewhere internal destabilization, and when someone takes such steps of desperation, this is not from a good life, but if it is not a known life, then there are risks of something that we still we don't see ugh let's talk a little maybe about our good life er about our prices and about our hryvnia what should we expect by the way, this was the right step, because

in order not to annoy people, there are only numbers at banking institutions. they are there, and if you are interested , you can see them, yes, in fact. if you are interested in the rate , you can go there to minfin.com.ua and look at the thousand hryvnias every day. will go until the end of the war now we have seen a little acceleration of the fall of the hryvnia, and so de facto in an empty place er, mainly on psychological factors due to a shortage of currency, it says currency simply when it is on the balance sheet in banks there is no cash and this caused a certain excitement well, plus yesterday today at the moment of this escalation by putin, it also affected the hryvnia exchange rate. ugh, well, i would add. probably, look a little bit. you and i now have a draft of the state budget, which will probably be adopted very quickly. draft of the state budget and about that all the experts say that by the end of the year, the average annual

exchange rate is expected to be 50 hryvnias per dollar, and by the end of the year, the average annual rate is 42 . we are talking about an annual average of 42, well roughly somewhere add 10%. and with the current system of distribution between the cashless cash market well , guess what is the possible course of the cash market, if this is so, then it is undoubtedly stimulating to some extent today the moment of hryvnia holders to convert it into dollars, because this should somehow ensure their savings , therefore, in this situation, i think that in addition to purely psychological factors related to uh, well, those in the processes taking place in the russian federation today uh, there are and the

society's reaction to the draft budget and the control figures included in the budget for the next year. thank you very much, gentlemen, for the conversation. let me remind you that serhiy fursy, an investment banker, an economic expert questionnaire, oleg poezii, were with us. the executive director of the economic discussion club talked a little about whether russia will be able to put the economy on a military track, so that's the story in short. it's unlikely. well, let's see what their partial mobilization will be. well, i agree very much with what mr. serhiy fursa that everything is of course possible. yes, they still need to overcome the leap to north korea if they have their own economy. well, we have seen what they will do, but so far nothing shows, there are no such manifestations that something will work out in them

the only thing that comes out is that it is always that it is always i will say this word on the air well, but we know that this is a country that i think they should just arm themselves with these crap guns and in principle start a civil war who else yes yes yes yes god of course, people are amazing russians, where people are amazing because they sit inside their country, sometimes they don’t leave, you understand how men didn’t see beyond their fence or the temporary regional center well, what else can you expect from them valery pekar, a serious teacher in kyiv thinkers of the fucking business school, and in general, i can say that russia is not a public intellectual, but russia is joking