uh, russia is a sponsor of terrorism, it 's a short story, it's not the president, it's only subscribers, but putin, on the other hand, is a legitimately corrupt president, or am i mistaken, uh, i don't know what they stole . it was only because there is no democrat there and that's how they say in iran how did we decide the country that it's just viber you say in the country and if the country is in viber what country is it smart last question, i'm probably your whole president ukraine's zelensky has called on the united states to become the first guarantor of ukraine's security

, that is, to promise direct military support in the event of any subsequent problems. what do you think, is this a good idea at all? ukraine has no alternatives . what is the way to get into nato and how to get the necessary guarantees in such a way, in such a way? this is me. this is the president- elect . he himself can sign the contract. it's a student and a process - it's nothing, it's even with myself i'm like that

thank you jason jason jason march for 100 for joining us at such a late hour now at mr. jason's two nights but he still gave his time to us marathon we thank him for this, jason, jason, an american political technologist and political consultant, died with him . we spoke in russian, some kremlin bot was already comforted here, they say they speak russian. but i dream of the time when we could communicate with mr. jason, and not only with him, in english fluently on our airwaves well, you would understand freely everything that we are going to talk about with some of our partners abroad in the language that is considered the language of the world well, but for now, we can expect something else from you it is impossible but i think that it is ahead. we strive

for the european union, so we strive to distance ourselves from the russian world and everything that we inherited from it. morning, how do you like the latest news from our neighbor in quotes about the partial mobilization of 300,000 reservists in general, who is going to mobilize now, who will speak first, let's go, mr. mykhailo, let's have your opinion, really, nothing such an unexpected thing did not happen, and it was warned about this a long time ago, but it is worth seeing what will happen in a week, two in a month, obviously

everyone was ready for this. that is, it was not exactly a surprise for anyone there, neither in the west nor in ukraine. well, we hope that it is some kind of indigenous it will definitely not lead to such changes for the worse. well, we are trying to understand what this partial mobilization is about. i see from the russians that we consider it to be relatively good, so what is putin actually planning? plans somewhere before that this is written by russian expert yan matveev from the team of oleksiy, a mass positional russian politician who is currently in prison. he wrote that putin is planning this way to attract about 300,000 military personnel. but he believes that this

mobilization plan will fail because of to mobilize such a number of uh, none the less, sir. and what do you think are the prospects of this partial mobilization? how do you evaluate it? well, you know in russia they are used to speaking in bird language, and they, russians, understand it best of all, and when putin says that there is a partial need for mobilization here, the main word is mobilization, this indicates that the russians will lose the war, and then he says this to the whole country, so i hmm , understanding and in principle supporting the idea that it is unlikely that they they will collect that it is unlikely that they will collect these three hundred thousand for and these 300,000 still need to be clothed, given weapons, trained, etc.

that is, this is a huge process that will definitely not start tomorrow, and this means, plus, this mobilization for the winter is completely stupid in general from in other words, this is a good reason for the russians to think about what to do with putin, because the perspectives are obvious and clear, the issues of time and human lives are on the medusa. forbidden, the news appeared literally an hour ago, and if it was about 300,000, i missed it, but the medusa newspaper shared the news that some of their movement spring announced an all-russian

protest against mobilization, what will this protest be called, no mogilization, mobilization, and they these activists of this movement offer the russians to gather at 7:00 p.m. their time in the center of their cities against the fact that their husbands, brothers, parents, are sent to the meat grinder of war. do you think the russians will listen to this call now or well, it seems to me that all the protest actions that have taken place in russia so far are frankly ridiculous, and even more so the resource of medusa, which has been repeatedly noticed in such sympathies with the russian imperial policy , it is good to read between the lines, this is one point the second point still seems to me, taking into account

especially the north caucasus and the volga region, as well as a significant number of migrant guest workers, simply for the number, they will collect several hundreds of thousands from this contingent, and er, i don’t know what the settings are, er, and it is obvious that the number it will not be collected, just what will be the quality of all this, and the protest mood is obviously that those who already wanted to leave russia or who could who no, well, let's see how much they will touch the residents of st. petersburg and you, and touch them, obviously yes right there, no one will catch on the streets, they have deep regions for this. moreover, they clearly stated that they will be sent there not so much to the front line as to control the territories , that is, to occupy the supposedly second places there, it is obvious that what they say is the same as numbers, like everything else, well, that’s it. shoigu steams with numbers in general and on

losses and everything else, which you don’t trust . well, they’re simply meaningless, but they still have a certain resource , and the resource is significant , especially quantitative, where it’s easy must flow to plug the holes, they will plug them. well, personally, i do not believe in any protest potential in russia at the moment. moreover, they are quite skillful in dividing and dominating even the same attempts of some opposition er-er years, today we have two orientalists, and i thought that this is not a coincidence because this is also in principle. well, lately it shows that it is rejecting the european part of its civilization. i don't know how it is about the territory, but uh, actually, mr. igor, i have a question for you, too. well, we have seen how mass protests arose in such societies are just as traditional and authoritarian. well, i don’t know how there is, let’s say in egypt and

so on. maybe this protest p- is dormant . the potential is still there and it can, some kind of spring there can spin. what is your opinion? well, first of all, i categorically refuse to compare russia is in the state in which it exists now and before with the normal countries of the east. that is, after all, it is a civilization, russia is an anti-civilization, so, let's say just because we are orientalists, it is worth making such assumptions and about er you understand, the problem of the protests in the east is to a large extent due to the young generation, that is, in these countries, and now we are watching the events

in iran, the average age of a person, the average age of a person in ukraine is somewhere around 28 - 30 years, it is clear that this creates explosions, dangerous material, and moods, and prague, the desire for new changes, transformations, and the decline of old authoritarian institutions, that is, there is potential here. there is someone to go out on the streets, there is an idea about the future, instead of c in russia, the population is catastrophically older, the average population is more than there 48 50

years ago, and accordingly, a huge number of people who occupied a positional position left the country, and that is why there is such a protest potential there. smaller, but here the question is not really about the protestors, let’s say, not in the category of people who are a priori opposed to the government, it is laid down here that if and when this regime falls, it will fall because of the internal contradictions that will arise within the ruling group a e these contradictions will grow as russia suffers defeats on the territory of ukraine, who

trusts the tv, will russia manage to fool its citizens like this again? well, according to polls, we see that they support everything that putin does , and in this address, what would he have carried over from yesterday currently, putin has said that our brothers in kherson oblast, zaporizhzhia, donbas , they need our protection, our support, and that's why he announces mobilization because you see those people, as if some neo-nazis don't give they have to live and are killed accordingly. it already happened once in russia that people ran and shouted for their families for stalin, but now these people who are under the influence of russian zombies, propagandists will succeed in throwing them into battle for some of their

brothers who are in dire need their liberation in the kherson region, zaporizhzhia, and so on in those occupied lands. well, it seems to me that in fact, the russian generation is somewhere around 20-30 plus. and this is the main, the main resource for mobilization there. there it is also not watched in ukraine in particular, russian propaganda long ago switched to digital media and it is aimed at this generation, it is quite successful . but uh, in principle, it seems to me that this is a repetition of the second world war, as the leaders would like it to be. it will not be like that here, although the approaches in many respects have remained the same, and even we are looking at the

mobilization that is taking place from the occupied territories, and they are mobilizing there in general very hard, it is the luhansk donetsk region, now it is obvious that crimea will join there very strongly, and hm. maybe even the calculation is such that to recruit as much as possible from crimea, let's say, to send to the kherson region and or the dnr of the lnr, the so-called mobilization resource has already become depleted, even they they give them some kind of status only after they have invested a lot , and even more so the events in the kharkiv region are a successful counteroffensive, he showed many that all these promises there, russia is here forever, russia will be here no one will move out of the place, he is not really worth anything. i don’t think it is here to get, well, some of our imaginations from films about the second world

war. the crowds really won’t succeed for the family under stalin. but again, the question is where will these mobilized people be sent because it's really winter and it's one thing to sit from the sofa and comment in telegram, sorry, the fight of words on the other side, to be there, i suspect that many people are not ready for such an outcome, as we can already see from the reactions of russian, er, russian social media probably someone, many say that today's events did not start today, they started with putin's famous speech 15 years ago at the munich security conference, when he called it a tragedy and its political collapse of the soviet union . in the caucasus, where the influence of russia before this war remained powerful for me. this is an interesting moment,

if we are talking about azerbaijan, armenia, kazakhstan, let's talk about it, mr. igor well, you know what is happening, for example, in the same armenia. i think that here there are two key aspects that should be taken into account. the first is the pressure from the united states of america on the governments of these countries and the threat to introduce sanctions for attempts to use the territory of these countries for re-export or to avoid sanctions and we see that the same armenia is already forced to deny the russians their peace with their cards, and even turkey, which is more than anything else if it brags that it did not join the sanctions, is gradually refusing to serve these cards precisely because they are afraid of the introduction of sanctions. that is , we can say that these threats are effective and they are

effective. second point - this is, of course, the situation at the front, and we saw it not only in the post-soviet countries, in general, in the so-called global south , which closely monitors the situation in ukraine and which reacted very quickly to the defeat of the russians near kharkiv and the appearance of a huge number of caricatures mocking the russian bear. either he was stung by bees or somehow received a slap from the ukrainians. in other words, we see that the attitude towards russia changes according to how russia feels in terms of its successes, that is, the failure of russia immediately

attracts more attention to ukraine and generates a lot of disparaging comments and disparaging assessments from er, that is precisely the representatives of these countries, depending on how the situation will unfold er, of course i predict that the pressure regarding sanctions will increase from the er european countries and from the g7 side, respectively , from the side of communication and america and er hardly or the russians will be able to confirm some or show some serious success in ukraine, then these are actually two factors and will continue to influence the positions of these countries, er, we continue even you can notice a trend that began back in march, february, if, for example, even some middle eastern ones and er,

actually others the media wrote there about the defeat of ukraine, it is possible that how the situation at the front changed, so more and conditionally supporters of ukraine and fewer supporters of russia, that is, this situation changed significantly, now we even see central asia the recent conflict between podstan and tajikistan , or as it is called in condestan, the tajik aggression, in fact, many kyrgyz activists admit that the events that took place in kyrgyzstan, this before the two revolutions , are essentially also a russian factor, because it was worth it to them to slow down the democratic processes to throw out the main american base from there and the only thing is that now there are a lot of experts from the southern caucasus proper from central asia, they are wondering what to do next, that is, if russia loses a player in this

in the region, for example, azerbaijan is simply supported by iran from the south, and how will iran-azerbaijani relations continue? moreover, this morning has very good relations with armenia, even more so, this applies to central asia, where, well , even this is the shanghai cooperation organization, which has shown itself in such literary qualities of china, he is so well without meeting there separately with anyone , that is, as from the position of a strong person, at least that is what the observers say, where putin was allegedly given the second wheel, but still, these countries remain in many respects dependent on russia, including this huge number of wage earners in russia, and in fact, russia for them, as in the 19th century, tried to be the only communicator with the outside world, so in many ways it still is, but at least kazakhstan, er,

demonstrates, well, extremely er, such good powders in terms of this terosification, and we can also hope that, for example, the kyrgyz-tajik conflict, that finally, at least the starting pants for the first time in many years, there will be some changes in power, and it is obvious that these factors are so russian that they will be there reduced moreover, now we are talking about increasing the azerbaijani gas, er, actually selling it to europe, azerbaijan, in front of me, i will also get gas here , and er . in reality, but when aliyev brought it up many years later, europe somehow reacted sluggishly, it was more profitable for them to buy from russia, and it is clear that this is all the redistribution of this market, the redirection of flows - these are

big, very long processes and pushing them it is obvious that in this case there will be ukrainian victories at the front, it's just a matter of at what price, and when it will happen, they are mainly focused now, of course, on their internal problems and news, and the first thing is to monitor the situation at the front, but none the less now we see that in iran there are just large-scale prostheses that were provoked by the death of a girl. after she was detained, she apparently wore a hijab incorrectly, and then they found out that she was beaten and tortured there. the girl was 22 years old, how serious are these prostheses and is this a butterfly effect or does this wave somehow affect what is happening in ukraine ? these processes are serious and so far what we are observing in iran shows the growth of uh

protests and uh there are a few more days ahead that may to be decisive well, you can accuse me of a certain excessive optimism but it seems to me that now the stars may align , circumstances may arise in which the army a-a and now only the army can stop with violence and excessive violence stop these protests and the army can find itself neutral or confused, the problem is that the president of iran, raisi, is unknown to the germans as the butcher of tehran, he is now in the united states of america and cannot quickly intervene in the situation, and the supreme leader

of elikha me and according to some information, she is near death or incapacitated, and this circumstance is her well, what was an absolutely black swan, maybe those circumstances can lead to a very serious destabilization of the situation in iran itself, plus everything else. it should be noted the problems of national in the screen itself, we see powerful demonstrations demanding autonomy in northern iran, that is, in that iranian azerbaijan, we see the growth, a very powerful growth of protest sentiments in

kurdistan . for a long time in the west of iran, where the arabs live, in other words, a revolutionary situation may arise in iran, well, even we see that the leaflets that are being distributed now, well, mostly in digital form among those who protest, they contain such a call that they say who was not there, larry beluch-kurt, a persian turk, well, the sense of azerbaijan , in the case of the exit, because if we were all iranians, it is actually interesting that, on the one hand, they would like to distance themselves from such movements, conditionally separatist with on the other hand, on the contrary, they offer such a picture to emphasize the identity, that is, that everyone should protest . that is, it is not some kind of individual movement. actually, it is

worth it. i think i should wait until friday. because usually on fridays in tehran, one this is the biggest friday prayer, because in their practice they conduct it in the main ecological center of the city, and let's see, usually there, they talk about the international situation at these prayers, how many followers can they bring from those spiritual seminaries, but it is obvious that the authorities have not yet exhausted all resources for the protest, because in the past there was a mass shutdown of the internet, uh, it will work somewhere until iran, well, it is not fixed at the general level, but it is likely that in the near future in a few days it will happen in order to break the coordination of these protests. i think that these few days will really be decisive for this movement in iran, but such clear protests are especially specifically oriented to the criticism of this

khomeini ideology that is planning in iran, they very significantly undermine the authority that is, if even this protest does not end with some kind of regime change, then well, he will do a lot for this at least. that is, this is actually a process that has been expected for a long time and the situation in iran is economic, especially after two difficult during the pandemic years after that, even some of the religious and ideological projects that they financed there are now significantly cut funding, that is, i recently had the opportunity to communicate with some conservative, let's say, circles from there, they are very dissatisfied with what i did not expect from them with their power , that is, the protest potential there is actually growing to be very satisfied with the fact that they still handed over these martyrs who are now called geranium-two and are bothering our

soldiers now at the front when they will be busy with their then it won't be for them, not before handing over weapons to the russians, helping them in such a case, the war with ukraine about another country, yes , they started about the ukrainians actually because of the fact that we now have a full-scale invasion here about taiwan and after that, when the day of this pelosa then she flew there and everyone was watching her plane, but now there is a change in policy and why did biden actually promise to protect taiwan, how does it affect international politics and ukraine in particular well, i think that it is positive, definitely because at least it will lead to the sobering up of some chinese politicians, especially when it comes to the preparation

of the 20th congress of the chinese party and the prospects for the re-election of tseppin, who is its leader, respectively, well, the radical, relatively speaking part of the chinese establishment, we have less than a minute, and i think that this at a minimum, it will strengthen the positions of those who are against e.e. against e.e. the conflict between the states. in short, it is obvious that some said that it could be harmful to ukraine, they said that china would start a rapprochement with russia, but this showed weakness with china, that is, china dispersed, dust came, went to read, made a specific statement, and what china did, china, actually, took such a customary position, it is obvious that there, where is china, china