the explanation is that the positions are not stable, the prospects for the liberation of the north of the luhansk region well, tough battles without special advancement of the great but threatening situation robbery on the right bank of the kherson region and uh, not the last but not least, he felt humiliation and attitude towards himself at the summit something attitude like the old days like to the president who loses, well, an absolutely adequate attitude, yes. well, he needs it, as he seems to him, as a result of the escalation, he can return the attitude to himself if they are respectful, then they will just be afraid. thank you, mr. serhiy , we understand how difficult the situation is and how much it can get even more complicated. serhiy danilov, deputy director of the center for middle eastern studies, worked

live on the espresso channel's information and analytical marathon at 3:30 p.m. anna olevska and thank you to serhiy danilov for the professional analysis of the situation, we will continue to talk about the excise tax on fuel. corresponding next, as yaroslav zheleznyak writes, people's deputy, the law will enter into force a day after its publication and the return of excise taxes should be expected at the end of september. and how will this affect the fuel market, prices at gas stations, we will talk with our guests serhii kuyun, director of the consulting company group a-95 p, we congratulate you good day, not a southerner, also a people's deputy of ukraine, member of the committee on finance, tax and customs policy ms. nina good day, i congratulate everyone, well, let's start with mr. kuyun so what we should expect from fuel prices as a result

of the introduction of the excise duty, so to speak , applied scenarios for what our citizens should prepare for well, in fact, this question appeared on the agenda not only because the state and budgets and the cabinet of ministers need money, but also because a good moment to introduce a tax for its renewal the fact is that oil prices are kept low, that is, when taxes were canceled in march, the price of oil was $140 per bar and, accordingly, the task was for people er, to protect a little from the same price shock, which came to ukraine even against the background of hostilities and war, now the price is $90 per bar since august, accordingly, this pressure is less, and you can er, well, it is a good opportunity to renew these taxes therefore, we do not

predict what will happen. the price will increase because there is a decrease in the purchase price of the cost of fuel and, in the background, there is a renewal of the tax . because we understand the return to excise taxes on fuel and this is evidence of certain processes, we understand that there is a war going on in the country. but will it be enough, conditionally speaking, to return the stock with one fuel in order to help our economy and our armed forces, you and i will explain to you and in where why do i disagree with mr. sergey absolutely exactly when the excise tax was abolished they did not think about the fact that at that time the price of oil was high

and it became obvious after they started discussing and what rates are currently being offered and why is the excise tax being introduced right now, none of the officials of the ministry of infrastructure, the ministry of finance, at the meetings of the specialized committee, gave an explanation, the explanation is one - the money is needed for the roads. inconsistent with the current rates until they are reset to zero in the tax code. i don't understand why 100 if you say that the price of oil has fallen so much and it's time to return it. why is it absolutely obvious that no one thinks about what will happen to the people and the economy and what cumulative effect the return of excise taxes will bring later , and the return of

excise taxes is not gradual but so chaotic . in the amount of 100 euros per thousand liters, the price is absolutely correct, since this is an indirect tax, gasoline should increase by uah 3, 87 kopecks, diesel fuel by the same amount, and gas by uah 2, 0.1 kopecks, because vat is also charged on excise duty, but yesterday's law was one more thing was voted that this norm of 100 euros for excise tax is valid only during martial law, but no later than 01.07.2023. it will cease to exist and the general norm of the tax code will work . and this is 213 € for gasoline, 139 € for diesel, 52 euros for

gas and this will mean that, well, the same amount should be added to the price of gasoline, and that is why i have a big question now for mr. serhiy , including, of course, since there are now small stocks of e-fuel at gas stations, as well as the memorandum signed by several of us large companies about the fact that they will not raise the price in the next two or three months, well, this is absolutely obvious, and then the economy, their own economy, will force them to raise this price absolutely, that's why the cumulative effect will be felt by all of us in the price of every product, every service, because all truck carriers and all the rest will feel the impact of the excise tax on the price, whether it was necessary to establish an excise tax, of course, but it

had to be done gradually, starting with lower rates, so that in fact, if the goal of the government and the authorities was to fill the state of the road fund, so let's fill it up, not in the amount of 11 billion, how did they calculate, you will understand, they started from the end, they needed to count 11 billion and then began to calculate and what excise rate should be set ? but for sure these should be thorough calculations and not just a made-up figure p serhiu please give your answer as to why it was canceled because i was a member of the operational staff for overcoming the crisis in the fuel market e-e which was created by the cabinet ministers at the beginning of the military aggression, so i

know very well why they were canceled and each person saved 10-12 hryvnias as a result of this, then uh, on fuel, although i will say that it did not have any effect , then state regulation was in effect and, accordingly , taxes were not taken into account when calculating the limit prices i.e. uah 10-12 were not taken into account and such prices were at gas stations. therefore, it really helped people save a lot of money against the background of the events that took place at that time. as for the rates, i will honestly say that i do not know why they are like that i am particularly impressed by the idea of ​​unification because it corresponds to the spirit of today's time, that is, the same tax for everyone, everyone drives, goes on the road, you pay the same tax, you don't have to figure it out. are you on gas, on gasoline or on diesel , are you using the road, please pay, why is there only one

driver in a lanos on gas you have to pay twice as much as twice less than the one you wanted, but on gasoline, where is the logic in this? there is no logic, uh, as for the rates themselves, i just want to say that i don’t know why they were a hundred, i’ll be honest, but this is, as they correctly said, no, no, on petrovna, 4 hryvnias per liter, in today's prices, this is 7-8% of the final price at the gas station. before the war, the tax burden was 40% on gasoline and 25% on diesel fuel, 15% on liquefied gas, that is, it is difficult to consider this tax burden as large in europe is 70%. therefore well, let's start with two percent of five percent then 10%. well, what's

the point in this? that is, it's a small tax burden, and i think that you can really start with this and then look at the situation because well it is possible that it will be valid there again until december 1 and july 1 from next year, but it seems to me that they will return to this issue much earlier and hm, i do not rule out that the taxes will be reviewed again, if it is allowed, ms. nino, and this money is targeted remind me where they will go this was a very important question, ms. anna, and you know that even if it was no longer possible to play this question, whether the excise tax is returned or not , then the second, even more important question than the first , was the procedure for using the funds of the state e-e road fund because at the beginning of the

war a rule was adopted that during the period of martial law these funds can primarily be used only for e-fulfillment of debt obligations and provision of the needs of the defense sector of the ukrainian government and in a package with the establishment of these excise taxes at 100 euros every second the draft law is an amendment to the state budget which was proposed to cancel this norm, i.e. these 11 billion estimated to be directed exclusively to roads and solely because of the public publicity that this norm acquired in the we, the fraction of european solidarity, have also contributed to a number of things. we talked for a long time with our colleagues , including the monomajority with many servants

of the people, that we cannot act like this during the war. i.e. that he can assure there that he needs it or that it is not in the risk zone of hostilities, or that you have a conscience and understand that there are people nearby who need a lot of help, that is, everyone who suffered suffered from hostilities, or let's then concentrate exclusively on victory, that is, finance exclusively the security and defense sector as a result of agreements, including a broad discussion. well, i don't know, already in the hall, we all shared this with each other. yesterday in the hall, the 47th amendment was supported this is an amendment of my authorship of authorship, but we submitted from european solidarity to preserve the priority allocation of funds to meet the needs of the defense sector, and the second point was

added that up to 50% of this fund can be spent on i still adhere to the development of international automobile checkpoints, er, you know the opinion that until we allow the economy to recover, there is nothing to take from it, even the additional taxes that we just talked about, because when we say that 4 uah per person is not much of an increase in prices er- gasoline and all fuel, any fuel, yes, let's now consider how these price increases will hit farmers, er, business, which is very dependent and in the composition of which there is more than 20-30% of the cost of fuel. well, we need to be more comprehensive to think, therefore, returning to the sources of the direction of the road fund. it seems to me that yesterday there was a

victory in the hall. i hope that the draft law from the verkhovna rada will be signed in this form. and this is how it will be signed by the president and we will move on, but these are the norms only until the end of this year, and regarding further actions regarding the spending of the road fund. well, yesterday, we already heard everything about the presented budget, that is , the same thing is repeated again . construction but i think that it will be stopped in the process of discussing the budget for 2023 and submitting it to the right thank you no to petrovna well and according to the question to mr. serhiy and in general, how is our oil refining industry doing because the enemy regularly fired at oil refineries and not only ie as far as i understood, it was possible to decentralize certain

production. well, maybe now we would need appropriate support, in fact, in the last 3-4 months, there was a real victory, and i believe that this is the first great victory of ukraine in the economic war, namely, the complete restructuring of the oil product market, the enemy destroyed 100% of the pre-war sources of fuel inflows to ukraine, and in 3-4 months the country completely reoriented itself to new sources . does anyone else have a chance to do this, that is, no country in its history has had such experience in the conditions of war to completely rebuild the fuel supply. and today we see that there are no queues at gas stations, and there is a surplus of all brands on the market

petroleum products, that is, there are more of them than needed, there are good stocks, they will really disperse because everyone already understands that the enemy is hitting warehouses . that's great , the market is functioning perfectly normally and we can see that we have calmly passed the peak of consumption. that is, it is august, now september is ending. we still have to go through october, although the first half of it can be seen, but we can see that there are no problems with fuel. thank you. this is a really important victory for you, because we understand what the enemy was counting on when he targeted them, they were still in our process. he thought that the country would become like this and some or other social riots would begin. well, in general, as you rightly noted

, it was possible to change fly and hold the situation. thank you very much. dear mrs. nino . this is a special fund, it is a state road fund, and if the directions of use are prescribed to the administrator of ukravtodor, because everyone understood that excise taxes are exclusively for roads, avtodor can only be used. thank you. with us was serhii kuyun, director of the consulting group a-95 e-e, let's move on, the topic continues with gennady ryabtsev, an energy expert, director of

special projects of the gennadiy psyche center we congratulate you. i congratulate you. you have already heard us a little. give us your opinion. please tell us, because here we had different views. how do you evaluate yesterday's changes from the verkhovna rada and the return of excise taxes on fuel? it is definitely necessary to return it as fresh, because it is one of the main e- um, one of the main components, one of the main sources of income of funds to the state budget, and that's why just wait until it decreases, it will decrease, this income part of the budget will simply not do anything, in my opinion, it was not justified, and therefore the return of excise taxes was discussed for a long time. unfortunately, we now see a rather

strange ratio between the excise tax rates for various types of petroleum products. well, at least we managed to push the difference between the excise tax and the ak rate of the tax on gasoline and liquefied petroleum gas but uh, anyway, the ratio between uh, excise rates hm is slightly different from that which is normal for the absolute majority of the countries of the european union , so definitely well, but we understand that gasoline is not the only our citizens live, we understand that many scenario approaches are currently being developed to solve a possible energy crisis, i will not say, but a man-made, cold, cold winter crisis. so we understand that the enemy will continue to target

critical infrastructure facilities. er, the light and electricity disappear, will gas be supplied to the houses? well, there is no direct relationship between the availability of electricity and the availability of gas supply, because all gas pumping units are working. actually on technological gas, that is, they just provide themselves, but as for water supply, this is where the problem really exists, because any interruptions in the power supply will lead to the fact that there will be nothing to feed the pumps that supply us all with water, and an example of this was damage to five chp plants in kharkiv, which led

, among other things, to the termination of water supply to low-lying areas of kharkiv. prospects with the limitation of oil prices for russia what effect will this have for them and for their economy, it is not yet possible to say that all sanctions in general they have, right now, some negative effect on russia's receipt of profits from the sale of energy carriers, now these profits are high and they will remain so until the sanctions are fully implemented. and this will only happen

from february of next year and when a barrage will be introduced for the supply of russian oil products to the european union. well, first of all everything and this embargo will be supported by all the states members of the british commonwealth if we talk about the current state, as it stands today, russia will receive surplus profits and this sometimes causes the speeches of individual politicians who call for the lifting of sanctions to cancel the embargo because it seems that there is no effect, but this effect is delayed, it is now observed only indirectly, it is observed in the

reduction of the volume of hydrocarbon production in the russian federation, which is not even possible to hide and this reduction in production will automatically lead to a decrease in the volume of exports and the volume of income, in addition to the fact that as soon as the world will figure out what to replace and replace russian crude oil and natural gas, quotations on the world and european energy exchanges will also go down and that's when it will be possible to talk about the real impact of the sanction and about the reduction in revenues to the russian budget, which for some reason everyone today and yesterday talked about as a fact that has already happened

it's a pity for e names e it will not happen earlier than the second half of next year only from the second half of next year it will be possible to talk about some a-a influence of sanctions that are capable of causing significant damage to the revenues of the federal budget of the russian federation mr. gennadiyu would like to clarify which we have a situation with the injection of gas into our gas storages, so because, well, the most recent figure that i have is that our prime minister appealed to the united states with a request to help us with two billion cubic meters of two million cubic meters, respectively, what is the current situation, well, the current situation is standard, that is, what was expected, and we have it, and in those 15 billion that are expected, a little more

than 15 billion, in my opinion, is quite enough to ensure the needs of the whole of ukraine in this energy resource. why so? because the volumes of consumption of natural gas has significantly decreased and they will not recover and they will not grow significantly in the coming years, and therefore it is still worth looking at it with the eyes of a realist and not based on the reasoning of the pre-war period when for example, the same gas storages had 19 billion, and this could also not be enough, so now the main problem lies not in the volumes of the accumulated, but in the ability to transfer this accumulated for the generation of electrical and thermal energy, and this

, unfortunately, is a problem because we we have at least six or seven 67 thermal power plants that are either occupied or located in close proximity to the war zone or damaged, and there are approximately 13-15 large thermal power plants that are also or are occupied or are in the zone of hostilities or damage, and therefore it is quite clear that in no way can natural gas, thermal coal, or any other media be placed at this station in order for them to generate the required amount of electric heat energy, so the main task here now

is the use of local sources of energy and the implementation of broader powers that are now held by the united territorial communities and local self-government bodies, this is to talk about the creation of of heating points i don't know how many heating points are needed to heat the same kharkiv they should be, respectively, the volume and throughput depends on what is needed at tea events - these are the first and second - these heating points are not intended for permanent residence they have citizens and these heating points are needed for the period if the energy infrastructure is critically damaged. and this is possible, it all depends on how

many rockets will fly into the corresponding objects hmm and then measures will be implemented with the mandatory evacuation of people from the affected regions of the regions or there i don't know the population centers, no one will collect people in these heating points and no one will keep them there for two weeks and so on and so on that's why similarities need to be arranged, buy some small houses there, and this is all a burden on the local budget. and what do you mean by the use of local energy sources? that's what to write down, it's primarily about those energy sources that, given the uh, well, such a scale what kind of centralization of the energy industry did we have? they were considered economical - their use was considered

economically impractical. well, for example, our peat industry was almost completely destroyed, yes, nobody paid attention to peat, but the corresponding deposits of this raw material are large there are quantities, and why not use peat briquettes for fuel if for the same burzhuykas in quotation marks bourzhuy as usual and if it is a conkunadiu state enterprise that is precisely engaged in the extraction of peat in the rivne region put under well, the so-called small privatization, although the enterprise was profitable, this is an interesting point, well, there are separate enterprises but, nevertheless, in general, if we talk about ukraine, then we have long forgotten about this industry, if there is thermal coal, lviv in the volyn basin, dnipro, in the donetsk basin there in why do they use

thermal coal like pavlo if there is gas condensate, for example in the dnipropetrovsk region in the poltava region, there is a huge number of temporarily mothballed wells over three hundred which it is possible to deconserve and use the same gas condensate as fuel for boilers, and this is possible without special conversion of those units that are in the wide access and in the free access, if it is about zhytomyrschyna, then please , there is a huge amount of forests. it is ukrainian, and no one goes into these forests, to be honest. already long enough because, unfortunately, unlike our neighbor belarus, our forestry industry usually did not pay attention to