the system of collective security that has been in existence since 1945 will have to be changed because the current one is not working, the security council is unable, as stated in the charter, to bear the main responsibility for maintaining peace and security on our planet . that is, it did not start yesterday and not even from the 14th year or from february of this year. it started earlier eh. remember the conflicts in the former yugoslavia, who is not russia, in georgia, the situation in syria and embrace this other eh. that is, the security system that is in eh, well, in which invested a lot of effort and time which worked more or less like that somewhere until the end of the 80s and with the lord of the soviet union it began to slow down. i already mentioned new bookmarks, events, er, confirmation, indicator, er, and today it is already the second one, that is, security tips, look at the question, ukraine provides only in

met almost 30 times this year, not a single decision was approved, why because russia will block anything uh, new uh, i have a solution that would somehow have an additional value, that is, a withdrawal, well, at least uh, regarding the ceasefire, some kind of truce, although it the security council is not even capable of this, and in this way it is difficult for you to change, change this system, because it is difficult to start with yourself from the composition of the security council and to do the work on which the system is based, but it also does not work, especially in those situations when a country that is the aggressor at the same time has the right vector but in this case it is an extremely important tool and here the question is how the voting members would vote and who could initiate this issue

ukraine, which have always been active in the issue of reform of the security council, these are small countries, medium and large, and there are also countries such as germany, japan , india, and brazil - these are countries that claim the status of new permanent members of the security council, because they were not so powerful , great, and significant in the 45th year, and now they are regional leaders and they claim to have 70 permanent members, in principle, few people speak against this, but on the other hand, the same precisely five permanent members of the present they they say so, they said the implementation of uh, until recently, that we are not against the expansion and granting of this, perhaps to

some other countries. or some inferior permanent member then let's cancel the right of the vector and even then it just says no we don't want to get rid of it because the existing system is based on it but all i'm saying is that it was right yesterday today the situation is very have changed a lot and every day i think that there is a growing understanding in the world and within it that something must be done with this system and must either be completely broken, create something new or reform from among on this issue, but the situation may change. for example, if we see that russia returns to the situation of the end of 1991, that is, it begins to fall apart, as it did then during the fall of the assessment of what russia is doing

, in particular, this mobilization, their partial declared and pseudo-referendum that is already starting today in the occupied territories, how is the world reacting, is this reaction adequate now, this reaction is absolutely adequate, we see that already the european union at the level of the minister of foreign affairs immediately gathered in the same new york literally on the same day when putin announced this mobilization and they have already agreed that the next meeting in paris at the beginning of october should consider a new package of sanctions , that is, what could happen there in a month or two is already approximated in time literally in a week. instead, we already have the statements of hungary, which says that they are categorically against any new sanctions. that is, there are internal processes, and by the way, this is also an issue. when we talk about the form of the un security council and in general, we must understand that the

un is not only made up of countries -members a from regional and subregional organization blocs, including the same european union - it's like a union - it's part of the un, and it was also in the family, and if there is such a situation in the european union and hungary will oppose such serious things of such cardinal people, the question arises of whether such a regional association is able to work effectively in the future, i do not mean the issue of economy and finance, but as a political association. i think that the people from hungary with other problems will get together. but nevertheless, this also shows that something went wrong, that is, russia, through its greece, launched processes in the world that will continue to break this existing system , which, let's say frankly, suited many

that is, there is some kind of war somewhere in africa, few people care about it. but we live like we lived before europe . i did not think about it here. and now there is a war inside europe and something must be done so that you consider many things, give russia the jurisdiction of unity in regional associations and many listen, mr. ampere , we understand that putin repeats the mantra that he is not bluffing, it is not for nothing that he is not bluffing, it concerns the possible use of nuclear weapons, there is a fairly clear reaction from the president of the united states, joseph biden, and so on, in your opinion now the degree is high and there is a great risk that russia may use tactical nuclear weapons at the moment. i personally do not believe it because, with all disrespect, let's say yes to russia. that is, there

are still people left, well, at least sober people who can't help but understand how it will all end . it may end with simply destroying russia, but at the same time another half of europe will be destroyed. well, i'm not talking about ukraine anymore. i think that by then you and i will already be on the air. so, we won't talk calmly. so, it's nobody's business. it is absolutely not necessary. but it is clear that putin may not care about it. but i hope that it cares, well , at least some of the people in his environment and that the use of nuclear weapons is not just that he pressed some button and went to sleep. well, this system of actions is complex - it is a whole chain there military command and so on, there is a difference between ballistic, i.e., strategic nuclear weapons , and tactical weapons .

mechanisms. am i wrong? well, i don't know. i think it's better to ask military experts about it. from what i've read, seen, heard, and i understand that tactical nuclear weapons are used, well, in fact, in the same mechanism, it's nothing in the same sequence as strategically, i.e. everything is equal , a series of actions is required in which dozens of people are involved, and it is not just that putin came and left the bunker, or came in, clicked and went on, it's all equal, please volodymyr yelchenko, ukrainian diplomat, former permanent representative of ukraine at the un and the former ambassador extraordinary and plenipotentiary of ukraine to the states. thank you, mr. volodymyr ivan ust , the chief consultant of the institute of strategic strategies, candidate of economic sciences, welcomes you, mr. ivan. greetings, studio. greetings, dear viewers

. russia is ready now for what it is articulating and if it begins to start , it is immobilization and the next stage of the war, what about the economy, you know, recently in early september, the central bank of the russian federation issued his report, and they will definitely not paint such scary pictures there, nevertheless, it is clearly understood there that first of all, if we are talking about inflation there, for example, the base inflation in the second quarter of this year in russia amounted to 19.2%, that is, up to 20 not much to go on, but this report clearly shows that russia really has very big problems in the economy due to the fact that this ban on supplying the russian federation with a significant amount of goods it wants has led to the strengthening of the russian currency, nevertheless it deprived a significant part of russian production of

the opportunity to go to work tomorrow and produce their goods. that is, the company is closing down one by one, that is, it is written directly in the report of the central bank of the russian federation that many enterprises do not understand how to continue to work. and they are starting to lay off their workers, that is, people are losing their jobs simply because of this. that enterprises can not work, moreover, on foreign markets , russia is also beginning to lose both because it can not produce goods. and what is interesting is because the ruble has become too strong, if before the war it was 75-76 rubles, now it is 55-60, and this strong ruble leads to the fact that exports from russia are not viable, that is, those enterprises that suffered from the sanctions suffered from the fact that they are so strong currency, they cannot supply goods to the outside, and here the problem is further certain

industries, for example, liberated us, she also faced what problem if, for example, in the kemerov region of russia, taken separately, the whole economy was built on the fact that they exported coal to the eu, i will remind you that since august 1, the eu does not buy coal from russia. thus, it is written directly from here that it is still unclear what will happen to all the miners who work in this region, because the redirection of exports to other markets meets with the same pre-nazi markets with logistics with problems because all exports were oriented to europe, logistics was taken to europe, as if to direct it to asia, so far this problem is not solvable, that is, in addition to all these problems that are already hitting very hard russia's economy is invited in part. let's do mobilization, although we'll see what share it will be . nevertheless, in fact, they are putting their economy

on the fact that it was interrupted by the fact that it was already on the precipice because of this decision. we'll see what happens next. well, it turns out that and what is the effect of sanctions already we can follow it for six months already. well , the ruble is strong, so it turns out that they earn on oil, too. well, normally, they continue to earn as much as it was, and then when we have to wait for the end of that economy and the effect of sanctions, see from i noted before that everything created an additional problem for them, because ok, they can sell oil, because again, they sell it with a disk, that is, if there is a high price for oil, it does not mean that they will buy it so easily in order to buy oil from the russians in china, in india, in other countries, they need to be told that we are moduson , that is, they are already short of receiving viewers, a discount, a huge discount there, well, i don’t know, almost half the price or up to a third of the price, yes, and accordingly,

in general, the base is free to supply oil and that’s it it will be good from now on, when we talk about the fact that imports were banned, and about two months ago, the nobel laureate in economics polkrugman wrote a very good article in the new york times, where he noted that the most important thing in world trade is not exports, because you have exports all the same there is and you sell what you have, the main thing is import because import is what you don't have and you buy what you don't have and now all of them have actually started a-a let's say. was missing, resulting in a 97% reduction in may months of the production of cars in russia, that is, they can still produce some 300,000 mobilizations

there , 300,000 per year, of course. sells oil and this problem is that they receive money for it, but not only oil exists in the country since soviet times, during soviet times, i apologize, 43% of the ussr's exports were oil and gas, that is, no, not even 50 , and that's what to do with other industries that now one by one they are starting to stop and what is the essential lack in russia now as a result of restricting or blocking imports what they don't need first of all they made a very big blow to russia it's not even the eu or the usa this decision taiwan would seem to be wrong already from the point of view of the world, let's say a large territory, let's say so diplomatically. but taiwan produces the most microchips in the world, and here they first banned the supply of large chips to russia, now they have stopped supplying chips to russia in general, that is, in fact, any

complex production that requires microchips is simpler , it stopped because import substitution in russia in this field was invested to the point that a chip made in taiwan was glued with a note that it was made in russia, that's it, they did everything so technologically, they didn't do it, and that's why now here's something complicated in russia it starts to stop a little bit, and then you know. we still have a question. and what to do with the fact that the majority of sneakers are smartphones, they are either on android or on ios in the programs, and both of which are produced in the usa, and now this is a victory, they want it not to be at least it has already been updated. as far as i know, it is not there so that there is no service for those programs that are there, that is, this decision has not been made, but you know. so salvation, look, mr. ivan, we see that, after all, the west is ready to go to the draconian, tough but honest, yes so to speak measures, in particular, it is about the fact that there are bigger ones, i thought for sure that 80% of russia works on why not

pirated windows, yes, and we understand that various corporations could use this business to take it and bot it, they could also use it by removing it from the system, so to speak, of counterfeit samsungs. and what are they still negotiating with each other, well, it would be tangible and understandable in such an average carrier, you know, uh, original shoes, definitely , but once again we see that, unfortunately, the world was not ready, that is, even an elementary thing after putin's speech in 2007 at the munich conference, he was ignored after georgia in 2008, there were no actions after crimea in 2014 and donbas in the same year, also no actions after a series of no actions, that is, the world

still continued to trade with russia they said that there can be no threat from russia, that is why russia is a good trading partner for us. only now, after february 24, the european union finally began to diversify sources of oil supply . if before they said that how can we live without russia, it is unreal, now for some reason you are showing that it is even possible very easily to live if you agree on the azerbaijanis and we will look with the united arab emirates, saudi arabia, qatar , algeria, nigeria, that is, they already have the opportunity to diversify sources of supply of oil and gas and make it so that somewhere in february they seem to be planning to stop the supply of oil and gas from russia there, it is more difficult, however, it is also possible, that is, when they were pressed, it turned out . your professional expertise ivan uz chief consultant of the institute of strategic

studies, candidate of economic sciences against the economy itself in russia they spoke of the effect of sanctions and what are they missing now well, we will carry out our further expertise with the participation of oleksandr musienka, director of the center for military-legal research, glory to ukraine for expertise yes, indeed , director of the center for military-legal research, we congratulate you, mr. oleksandr vitaya, so we understand, we talked to many experts . so that the russian mobilization will be a semi-fake story, there are serious caveats and there are great risks, so i would ask you to describe this process, the process of risks, they

consist in the fact that the war will continue, this is the main we understand the risk that russia does not intend to stop this terrible full-scale aggression, this is one big risk, and it is clear that in my opinion the main risks and the main points are as follows . the first of such things is that they now need to actually throw in reserves and feed those military contingents that are in the occupied territories, which are exhausted, which have suffered great losses , and it is clear that taking into account the trends that are on the front lines, and the trends are that today the russian troops do not even have any potential, but they are trying to conduct intensive assaults in the bakhmut region, this is all without success, it has not been the first week,

but they continue. and in the end, if you look in the directions the principles of e-e russian troops they are moving to the defense or have already moved or continue this process, respectively, forces are needed in order to e-e help strengthen these defensive lines, this is the first moment and the second and and part of these people, who are now primarily being mobilized, will be transferred to the positions currently occupied by the russian troops, and the second point is that they can partially form a contingent of troops a for several months in order to try in the spring or summer once again, create some kind of group here. if it succeeds and to what extent it succeeds , we will observe how the situation will develop from a practical point of view and then try to launch some offensive assault actions. well, roughly how it was at the beginning of a full-scale invasion on february 24, there are one or

two caveats in these risks, firstly, even when russian troops advanced from february 24 and then were forced under the pressure of the microdistrict defense forces to retreat from the kyiv chernihiv directions, they were supplemented in the belgorod, kursk regions, that is, even at that stage they already needed regrouping in two or three months, respectively, what is it about and they are even now until the current day. practically all the reserves that they had were concentrated either in belgorod oblast, or obrastov oblast, or from the occupied crimea, they have already attracted them, which shows that this shows that the russian contingent in connection with the fact that it bears losses and suffers them constantly, and this is a constant phenomenon, they need a constant infusion of strength. that is, they need to constantly feed on it from happiness to feed on superficiality, we understand that gathering

people, so to speak, in the russian provinces is much easier than where to get additional tanks, although perhaps they are in conservation i do not know a sufficient number of combat units, they are simply in conservation, they are already being removed from storage. the peculiarity of this mobilization is that if, since february of the current year, the russian troops have been equipped with modernized or new equipment, starting from the modernized most modern stages of modernization of tanks and 72 or new t-90 breakthrough and vladimir or other weapons, now they are already removing more from storage warehouses , the peculiarity of this technique is that if you read it on paper, it is nominally large there are a number of several thousand units or

several tens depending on what kind of weapon it is, but what is the situation for the bottom - recently it is just going and the main intelligence department of the ministry of defense commented on the example of the formation of the third army corps in russia. here is this additional one, so here they noted that approximately 35-40% of the equipment that is removed from storage and provided to be used by a specific army corps is either unusable or in need of varying degrees repair or modernization, i.e. this is the situation that, usually, old-style iron weapons are emphasized, not the newest and non-modernized ones, but in the zno, they can declare a smaller number than that. oleksandr. how do you assess the probability of using nuclear weapons at this stage? has

the soviet union developed any plans for the use of tactical nuclear weapons specifically against ukraine? i don’t know. maybe they are working on them now. maybe they are coming up with something right now. why not i exclude the only plans that were worked out by the russian troops together with the belarusian ones, and this is just starting from 2006, the plans are related to the fact that russia can launch tactical nuclear strikes on european cities either from the territory of belarus or from the territory of the kaliningrad region of its enclave, there are iskander missiles there russia has repeatedly threatened to transfer nuclear warheads and from there to threaten the surrounding european cities that are within the reach and flight range of the corresponding missiles in 2009 the first trainings that one of the first that took place

by simulating the use of a tactical nuclear strike, they concerned the cities of warsaw and copenhagen on the two european capitals, then they changed it for a while, then uh, other scenarios, that is, i lead to the fact that uh, the risks of probability, they naturally exist, we we understand what kind of enemy we are facing, but to date i do not see any plans . ukraine although we will not finish that they understood the situation, what am i doing, i listen to biden and when biden says putin don't do this, don't do this, putin is repeating to putin that he should not do this business , then i start to tense up internally, at the same time , her valevska tenses up, on the other hand, we we understand that both biden and putin were telling putin from behind, so to speak, that he was not

bluffing, and suddenly he started promoting the legalization of the temporarily occupied territories, of course, for his constituents, for his generals, and so on then we see that in this regard the ice is broken, that is, it is not about the falsity of those obviously unjust unjust procedures, but it is about the fact that putin went to the stupid annexation of another one of our territories, well, he went like that, and in principle , we understand that this was one of the scenarios that was predicted and it must be said that this was expected as early as september 11, but the counteroffensive of the ukrainian forces seriously shook the plans of the occupier, and here in the liberated kharkiv region, in the part where the russian troops were located, we see this the campaign that was being prepared by newspapers because verses and so

on, that is, russia was already preparing and it was trying to conduct some kind of agitation there. but of course , what is fundamental for us is what russia will conduct there, or rather not even what to conduct , because we understand that it does not matter at all what matters is that the kremlin failed the decision that they want to call these territories regions or districts of russia, after that the russian nuclear doctrine is applied, as far as we understand it, well, well, let it be applied, who cares to scare is not against ukraine, but to scare again plans against ukraine to use nuclear weapons, there are none against europe so who are they scaring , they are scaring europe, they are scaring nato and scaring the united states in the first place and even pay attention that even on all propaganda talk show, when it is discussed these scenarios that they always

talk about some european cities where they can fly and where russia can strike. they often figure it out, that's why it's a threat precisely in europe, it's a threat to the west, in what sense in the sense that if they now annex these territories and the ukrainian troops will continue what they were doing and free this ukrainian land of ours, then russia is threatening that it can use nuclear weapons against some completely or, let's say, other territories. well, use them somewhere in the sea there and so on, why, in order for the west to waver in its support for ukraine and begin to lean toward compromises with russia, to recognize the status of which, to sign some kind of armistice, in this their calculation is to intimidate the west and to frighten europe with the potential potential possibility of using nuclear weapons, it is

aimed more at them because i have not seen any such fear, you know, and such a great panic in our country, all the more so because we have already been promised this many times. i want to remind you that nuclear blackmail or blackmail of using nuclear weapons by this is not the first time for russia, i don't even want to remind you how many times this character medvedev described what will happen to you . this did not stop the ukrainian troops from continuing counteroffensive actions. therefore, everything is aimed at defense first and foremost. thank you very much, mr. oleksandr, for this exhaustive and extremely interesting analysis . in detail on the operational

situation, what has already happened, news right on the course for espresso iro, congratulations, thank you , colleagues, in just a moment, i will tell you more about the situation in mykolaiv and mykolaiv region well, wait, there will be more news about the medical reform about how the reformatting of hospitals is taking place in the lviv region 11 in ukraine on the espresso tv channel news in the studio of iryna koval greetings explosions were heard in mykolaiv beforehand the enemy in the case of the office the building of the industrial infrastructure object and private houses were also damaged