what is needed and what is the current reality when we talk about the maritime component of our security, both from a military and an economic point of view, we will talk about all this in our military program with our expert guests, my name is serhii zhorits, i am the director of the information consulting company defense express, which is currently working in tandem with the team of the expresso channel. my interlocutors today are andriy ryzhenko, an expert at the center for defense strategies, ex-deputy chief of staff of the naval forces of ukraine and captain of the first reserve rank mr. andriyu i congratulate you good day i am glad to see you and also ivan kyrychevsky military expert defense express ivan congratulates you mr. andriyu i would like to start with the question of the partial mobilization announced in russia if it is at all partial or will it really affect the increase in combat capabilities of the russian

federation, will it affect the naval component of the black sea fleet in particular ? mobilization, it is, well, at least what we see now, it concerns the draft of a certain number of personnel, various figures are called , from 300,000 to a million people in the russian federation, we understand that most of them are planned, the absolute majority, for conducting combat operations actions on land, that is, there will also be mechanized units, there are airborne airborne units, hardly any units of special operations villages, maybe the marines, but as for the photo, there may also be some current shortages, but he small, i don't think that together with this mobilization, there will somehow be a mobilization

of the civilian fleet of the russian federation in the interests of the introduction of hostilities, because well, he is there, i do not see its feasibility now, the number of ships, boats, and support vessels that are in the black sea fund is actually remains unchanged, they have certain plans for the construction of new ships, this new command of the black sea fleet, and admiral sokolov said that they expect about 12 new ships to be included in the fop, but this well, i think that this is not the same energy figure of demobilization. here, i think that with regard to the surface forces of the russian federation, it will not be aimed at this. as for the overall picture, the important thing here is that it requires a very serious financial resource, and

resources in general in russia are running out by - secondly , they need weapons in this personnel, that's why they are in such a large quantity. and we know that these weapons, which were stored in the russian federation, are approximately two-thirds of them, they call this figure. and it is used a-a well, i’m not talking about some new weapon, this weapon is still s- in fact, right from the years after the end of the second world war well, junior commanders are needed, junior officers are needed from their wine as far as i know, there are also not enough, but there as far as i know, early graduations from military schools are already planned, but we will understand that these are people without experience, and those who only sat there for a certain number of years at desks and studied military

discipline there, but that is absolutely not enough to conduct military operations. that is, i think that it is more of a propagandist nature. and this mobilization is very questionable from the point of view of providing resources, both financial and material and technical. thank you , ivan, for your opinion, how is this general mobilization or partial mobilization will affect the mood in crimea because the impression is that the residents of crimea did not think that this is how the situation will develop. what are your assessments of the mood in crimea from the point of view of these measures that are currently active and are they excessively active implemented by the russian federation. well, i think that to begin with, it is worth outlining that the mobilization in crimea is probably so-called partial, well, in fact, full-scale. it may refer to a much wider number of services in the black sea fleet, because let's start by recalling the 810th brigade of the urban infantry, it was actually defeated, but on

paper, it did not cease to exist, and there, according to some data, they have already begun to recruit so-called volunteers for the same contract. this naval aviation regiment was destroyed, but the regiment was not disbanded in accordance with the aviation equipment. it will also be necessary to recruit them, according to where they can be taken, e.g. in the civilian airports of crimea, which are illegally used by the occupation authorities. that is, in fact, this can happen quite widely there. as a matter of fact, total mobilization has been announced by the kremlin, but not according to some data, now they began to take away the crimean tatars in the first place well, as an element objectionable to the occupation authorities, they also started what is called "vogra" in russian, that is, the employees of the private security companies , what do we say, do they not have any respect in russian society, again, we can still see such interesting elements that the occupying authorities of crimea are trying to use in this process, due to the fact of total

mobilization, for strengthening one's position there, the general kremlin nomenclature, respectively, how can we skip it? and this is the kremlin occupation er, the crimean occupation authority, as if i understand that the west is popular, that's why it will do all on the one hand, in order to strengthen its position, on the other hand, just so as not to provoke the scale of some indignation. the capabilities of the fleet have changed during the six months of hostilities, well, the black sea fund it performs two main operational tasks, and so the first task is the control of the northwestern part of the black sea well, if at first the aggression before august 1 it was a complete blockade, but now, well, they keep control,

how do they keep control, they keep forces , including strike missiles that can strike ships. well, if they are there for some reason, for example, they will withdraw from the grain agreement and the ships will start entering ukrainian ports again, well, without their consent. and i want to remind you that since august 1, aa has already entered odesa and the ports near odesa about 200 ships with almost 5 million tons of grain. that is, this is the first task of blocking destroyed and so on, and the performance of this task has changed since february 24, since the ukrainian navy received anti-ship missiles, first the neptune, then the garkun, now simply fearing to be destroyed, the russians moved to the radius of action of these missiles

, in fact, they hid behind the escarpment of the crimean mountains behind the crimean by the peninsula and there they are now carrying out their... two to six missile submarines with the number of science rockets from there. well, eight to 30 there and more, but now that we are observing that the number of missiles previously launched missiles is very small, they are of a caliber and in fact once a week or two using there 4.6 calibres, well, they shoot, but they shoot, but they shoot without any restrictions, so we know that the caliber

is getting smaller, they are trying to resume production there - it doesn’t work out very well, but there is such a possibility, especially now it looks threatening etc., they moved their submarines, all new class 636.3, to novorossiysk, but we know exactly how they are located there, and they are kept, well, the arsenal of nuclear weapons, in principle, the caliber is the missile that can contain these weapons, if there is something there, someone will lose their minds and load the missile on the submarine, which will be difficult to find them, but they also use it through their coastal complexes, and first of all, this is the onyx, also for firing on our coastal area, but also everything is red and red. and as for projection of force by landing, she invented this idea. the first month there were three

attempts to land on demand. we know that the first time was the 810th. this brigade refused, then there were other problems, but now they are, but now they are . yes, this is their function, they are constantly preparing for it, but, well, the operational team now has no expediency for this. by the way, recently, in the last two weeks, it was observed that 3:5 large amphibious ships in project 775 carried out combat coordination measures for one of the of the battalions of the 810th brigade, which is located this year in the 382nd e-e well, at its base there, to what extent is there such an assumption, a tactical group was formed just for the battalion and they trained it, but well, the landing now seems impractical for them because and these ships will simply destroyed by our missiles. by the

way, anti-aircraft defense e there is a very weak side of all ships, without the exception of the black sea fleet of the russian federation, which includes new, latest, eye-catching frigates 11:35.6 a-a because, well, they are just modern against ship missiles, they have reached such a level that well, at least what the russians have, it is not very effective, so the tasks in principle they remained, but their execution has undergone very serious changes, and we can put even more pressure on the russian fleet. but for this, new capabilities are needed for that so that we can influence the ships of russia in the sea where they are now ivan, this is your strong point of knowledge of logistics, yes, that is .

of our seaport infrastructure, what is the overall picture of what we can do, what we can't do from the perspective of the grain expert of other products, what the enemy is trying to do to us, what he can do, and what we can do in response, well, you know , we should start with such an image that the launch of this grain corridor literally became a lifeline for the entire agrarian sector of the economy, it is impossible for the entire economy of ukraine as a whole, because if you look at the data available for about two incomplete months, that is, from 1 in august, it really turned out there about 2001, which exported 4.38 million tons of grain from one side, well, this is the rate of export. approximately two times slower than during peacetime, which were from the other side for the previous 6 months, that is, from march to the end of july, our entire infrastructure system was also able to export a maximum of four million tons of grain , that is, by car through the western border

crossings and by rail through all possible border crossings, and here we are through the small ports of the danube region. well, let's say it turned out that even such an extensive transport system is still not able to pass the next large volume of grain there, for understanding, somewhere on the border with poland or romania, wagons that arrived there in april are still standing in line, that is, how big is the traffic jam there again also for understanding, how about 2 million tons passed through peredonal ports in these six months, and in 2021, through that apartment ? proved to be ready for such a challenge, and even more so no one was prepared for that in the literal sense, i will repeat, the launch of the grain corridor turned out to be such a three-way circle because almost the entire agricultural sector it was tied to the possibility of freely exporting grain, foolishly, freely

exported currency freely arrived, i passed to ukraine agrarians, according to could freely purchase fuel, fertilizers, other necessary seed materials there, taking into account the realities of the war, this year they were able to sow winter crops and will be able to write only 20 farmers, respectively, only sown 25% of the area and pressure with an adjustment, even for some military realities, where mykolaiv oblast fields are constantly being shelled, and kharkiv oblast is now in principle not suitable for agricultural production, but let’s say it again, even these 20% of farmers will be able to sow only because, hmm, how grain is exported there, accordingly , the money passes on preparation for sowing, if this grain corridor did not exist, we would not have anything to do. well, let's say to our agricultural sector to carry out sowing work for winter crops, accordingly, it would be impressive, hypothetically, it would drop by half. we would we would cease to be an export-oriented country , and accordingly, when we do not have an export -oriented agricultural sector, then the

history of the 2000s can be repeated, when literally billions of hryvnias went to support farmers from the state budget at the rate of 5 hryvnias to the dollar, and it ended with gigantic losses. but now imagine why the gigantic losses in agricultural production, even against the background of the large and expensive defense that we are forced to endure, in the literal sense, we can still do even such the conclusion that the launch of the grain corridor for some reason makes it easier for us to finance such a long-term plan, i.e., the financing of the economy for defense costs, which concerns some of our prospects. well, sometimes there is talk of the option of opening the mykolaiv port, because if it were not surprising, it is these ones - the mykolaiv complex of ports, that is, mykolaiv directly private the port of nikatera and the port of olvia were the largest grain storage facilities in ukraine, which is indicative that the chinese state company kofco worked there, but considering the fact that the russians are constantly

they are shelling ochakiv, which is essentially the way out of mykolaiv, then to launch the transshipment of grain from this port. so far, it seems impossible, it turns out that we must first liberate kherson, push the russians back temporarily under occupation, and then we can already talk about what is going on there to restore the failure from the grain for some reason already for this explanation nuclear weapons on the same submarines from the decision to its implementation, what are the weak links in this process and can they, well , how will this happen based on the established procedures for planning the use of tactical nuclear weapons in the russian federation, well, first of all, i want to say that nuclear weapons can

actually be carried by all ships of the black sea fleet of the missile canter class and above. that is, in fact, the lyuba missile a, which had now, can be located on board a russian ship. it can hit a nuclear warhead plus to this you can add more terpels because 533 mm torpedoes can also be a variant of eh nuclear and well of course eh submarines of the 636.3 project can also carry caliber missiles as well as torpedoes well before , for example, there were ships that could even eh e.e.e.e.e.e.e.e.e.e.e.e.e.e.e.e.e.e.e.e.e. to drop underwater charges, all with the nuclear part from helicopters. well, i think that now they are

no longer there, but this is a threat, well, frankly speaking, there were such systems, but i don’t know the procedure itself. well, really, what is the order for the application is given by the supreme commander of the russian armed forces, putin, and without his instructions, nothing will be done . especially since we know that now he actually gives all tactical orders to his commanders in the combat zone. and this is such a special order. i think that there is a chain of decision-making there there are several designated persons. this is me. this is exactly the commander-in-chief of the armed forces of the russian federation. this is apparently the minister of defense, the chief of the general staff .

there is probably a certain document where there is a confirmation by closed means, the corner is carried out before the start preparation. here are the instructions and striking, but it is such a very complicated procedure. i think that at the very least, for the time being, they are refraining from having just nuclear weapons on board , well, for example, here is the cruiser slava, even in soviet times, or rather moscow, what was it called now, there for the last 10 years, but on this cruiser berdyansky called it, there were always nuclear weapons. now, i think there is no such thing because they also take certain factors into account there, and i think that despite the fact that there is speculation about the application, they clearly understand the consequences, political, economic, all the consequences. and by the way, it is very

positive that the united states of america and great britain nato gave their answer quite clearly and unambiguously on this matter but well, again, the procedure is technically complex, it is possible. i think that they understand the political consequences, and the lower the level of the use of military, the more so. well, i think that it will be very similar if this is the solution then it will not be very, very not easy there, but technically it is possible and it is very dangerous, our military intelligence speaks of the probability of using tactical weapons, and here is the commander that the former commander of the u.s. armed forces in europe, general perehodges, says that it is unlikely . but he is the one who said this phrase that if russia uses nuclear weapons against ukraine, the pentagon

can destroy russian military bases in crimea, it is not necessary there, it must be there, a nuclear response should be significantly reduced in such and such a way the potential of the russians in the occupied territories is, uh, ahead, andriy, in your opinion, how would it happen from the point of view if the united states destroyed russian military facilities in the crimea, with which arsenal, with what capabilities? well, i want to say that the conventional weapons are american and western. in general , they far surpasses conventional soviet or russian weapons in terms of its capabilities, and the experience of using such systems of the armed forces of ukraine has proven it. now we have about 30 heimers systems in service, and we see that well to what extent well, what do they actually act, well, in a

tenfold, er, let’s say in a tenfold size and the combat power exceeds the same number of a-a units. there in the old soviet salvo fire systems, if we take the 155-mm gun mount of the m-37, then we see that for in order to achieve a fire effect, there are 10 times less projectiles than 52 mm guns, that is, here we are, well , there are such systems, and they are eh well, for example, the same tamahawk missiles that can shoot at coastal eh objects they shoot take but you objects, they are highly accurate missiles, and the same atakam missiles are fired from himers and mls systems, but they are also very accurate, there are many modifications, and their range of action is also very, very

different, i am different air-based missiles that is, i think that, well, the modern arsenal will allow this task to be solved, and the objects that are meant to be in these bases are quite well known, because now, modern means of satellite surveillance allow them to be detected, well, let's say very quickly. which was actually impossible 50 years ago, when, by the way, in sevastopol it was even forbidden to take photos there during, for example, walks. and on a boat there through the bay of sevastopol, i remember it. for example, now it is not even necessary a-a because the capacity of a-a satellites is such of the highest well, they make very high-quality these are, uh, surveillance pictures from space

. that is, the arsenal is like that, and in fact, it is a modern conventional weapon. in terms of its capabilities, it is already approaching, let’s say yes, well, let’s say even, well, nuclear, but of course it is not like general hodges, just in that interview, he said that, most likely, this commercial weapon will be used, but it will be technologically highly accurate and highly effective, and then everything will become clear, ivan. so when we talk about ukrainian capabilities to destroy enemy targets on of the territory of crimea, general lazuhnyi, in his well-known material, said that we used missile weapons for strikes on crimea in the match, including the nuclear airfield with pods. do you have an understanding of what exactly the ukrainian side is using to carry out

such strikes, and then on this question, all the same, then by redirection to andrii ryzhenko. i think that two options are possible here, or let’s say that the selection is narrowed down to two options, after all, or a modified neptune for strikes on ground targets, well, or after all um, during the skazem war, by the end of the match, they had time to finish something on the topic of the operational-tactical complex peregrine falcons, because well, after all, we still have bernies , even if not in the form of visual materials, then in the form of some would be textile hints, we would like it, well, textual hints from official messages. we understood, because there are no hints, no photos, leave only two of these missile variants. andriy, do you have an understanding of why we destroy objects on the territory of crimea with our own efforts? so when i watched these explosions there were three very specific explosions, i can definitely

say that it was a weapon, it was one type, i don't know, but i think that sooner or later we will be told about it. there would be some well that it is positive that it is there and it worked very positively. i think that the amount of e-e equipment there was destroyed significantly, but by the way, at this airport it continues to function now, they almost threw the equipment there, i know that now they continued to operate, although the equipment was destroyed a lot about weapons. well, i don’t know. well , it was modern. it was a precise weapon, not something there, some kind of experimental samples. yes, mr. andrii , you remain such a supporter of the technological direction of development and the armed forces, and you make a bet

precisely for a technological solution for solving certain military tasks, i see one of your interviews where you talked about the fact that it is possible to strike russian objects there in the bay of sevastopol or in other bays at the expense of e-e underwater unmanned e- systems, are there any such systems in our foreign partners, what are their features and how do they differ from missile weapons in order to quietly destroy all submarines in one or another russian bay? well, really, in order to provide two the main operational tasks or the northwestern part of the black sea and around the crimea - this is their control - this is the control of the sea area and sydinayev - this is for the enemy's admission to the border. ukraine,

well, one of the options that can be er received by us very quickly, why well, first of all, they perform all the assigned tasks within the operational zone. i want to remind you that from odessa to sevastopol, 150 nautical miles is not much, and just right underwater and above-water drone and drone which, well, because it is flying, it overcomes this distance normally. and what is the advantage of, for example, an underwater or above-water drone in that its cost includes them? well , for example, an underwater one can cost several million dollars, a maximum above-water one, well, this project is usually there hundreds of thousands of dollars. and that is, i am even cheaper than the rocket team. well , you understand how to control a rocket. well, it can be detected . and you can not detect it, but there are such

goals in the combination. the solution is against a rough fight. and now the only option is how to find and destroy enemy submarines. i see how this underwater drones, and because, well, it is hundreds of times cheaper than building submarines, and here it should be noted that you need a base for the boats, you need to prepare the maintenance of crews is much more necessary , maintenance is also a large amount, and there are such drones, they are built in europe, they are built in asia, for example, in the same country, some company is a company in italy, in romania, and the market is let's say it is closed and semi-open, but well, i think that if necessary and access, well, the armed forces of ukraine will have this. and drones, again

, on the surface, they are 40 being formed for mine action. i think that this is really an ideal option for us because ah if you combine the delta blowing with the sense of tarkh, that's what she is steering, then all that will be in the north will be depths of up to 50 m, and this is such a klondike for adminnoy for mine warfare. there are a lot of mines now, and in order to neutralize them, you will need a lot of these means and well, a trench coat costs 50-100 million dollars. well, drones, for example, which can do practically the same thing, but not so far, and well, it’s not necessary, they cost us, again, one to two orders of magnitude less , and such systems are also on the market, so that’s it. the most important thing is the tasks that need to be performed to achieve some operational effect