years and uh, now we see that, well, the modern shock is much more complex, that is, it is much more systemic, and in 14-15 years there was an annexation of part of the territory, they were such a full-scale war . now we see much more. the number of refugees and people who go abroad, but now the economy is much more powerful and more resistant to perceived shocks. that is, it is happening on a more stable course and the banking system is the most stable, and so here the main thing is that the national bank did not repeat several key mistakes in 2014. well, for example , in 2014, the national bank continued to maintain the so-called market floating exchange rate, which actually led to a colossal devaluation of the national currency there from eight to more than than 30 hryvnias per dollar and, accordingly, then the devaluation became a powerful powerful driver of inflation because in our country

almost 50% of the goods in our consumer basket are imported goods and, accordingly, the devaluation is always due to a certain lakh the time lag leads to powerful inflation, that is why we get the following two taxic phenomena: first, a deep devaluation of the national currency, then inflation, and that is why, for example, inflation in the 15th year was more than in the 14th, almost one and a half times, now at the end of their mistake, the national bank didn't do it, that is, it first fixed the exchange rate and created a certain exchange rate exchange rate post, well, let's say it blocked the devaluation of the national currency. of course, what does this cause? a certain complaint on the part of the same exporters who are dissatisfied with the fact that they receive less export trimmings. but in principle, at that time, there were absolutely no, let's say, positive decisions. all of them were negative for some reason, but it was necessary

to choose the least negative combination negative factors and, in principle, the national bank did the right thing by fixing the exchange rate of the national currency - it saved it from devaluation, it saved it from this flywheel of inflation and another very important point. the national bank blocked it very much qualitatively blocked the channel of capital outflow, which was not done in the 14th year, that is, in the 14th year, the channels from that capital were also blocked . accordingly, there is no currency outflow from the country a, in principle, it is stored internally and this stabilizes the exchange rate, although, for example, to provide for those ukrainian families living in europe, in principle, the possibility of withdrawing from cards are currency, even if it is counted there in hryvnias, that is, in principle, that is, the national bank has clearly divided where the capital is and it

is some kind of social channels. although it controls it in a certain way, it limits it, but it continues to save because it is a humanitarian factor. it is necessary that ukrainians living in ukraine could help their families in europe, but the commercial channels from that capital are significantly blocked well, we talked about the exchange rate difference, the stability of the hryvnia, sir, a long time ago, now you will have questions about taxes and how this things and these processes of interaction, but before that i would like to remind you that if the exchange rate of the dollar against the hryvnia increases, the immediate consequence will be an increase in the prices of all imported goods, from household appliances to food . all engines, for example, fuel, is imported from abroad, however , its opposite factor is that in september, the price of oil on world markets fell significantly, which means a drop in dollar prices for gasoline and diesel, currently in the government and the nbu does not expect a sharp increase in the value of foreign currency, so we will already mention it in the budget. for the 23rd year, the macro-forecast indicator is set

at the level of uah 43 per dollar, which is even lower than the current cash rate, however, according to the same forecast , by the end of next year, the national currency can relax up to uah 50 per dollar, i have a question about taxation, because taxes are direct, well , they are direct, including the activities of farmers, agrarians, producers, entrepreneurs, etc. , they are often connected, for example, under the same the currency itself in the purchase of fertilizers, raw materials, etc. and how do you predict the filling of the budget in general? look at what well, the level of gdp is forecast to grow by several percent, although you mentioned that inflation will be 30% by the end of the year, what will happen to taxes and how it will be reflected directly on the exchange rate, well, watch a lot

questions in one, and we are not in a hurry, we can break it down, you can break it all down in order of our usual ordinary tax revenues, it is you and i who see that despite the war and this is also a ukrainian miracle, although maybe miracle is the wrong word because a miracle is something given from heaven and this is actually systematic work of the tax and business and law enforcement agencies, so we see that despite the war and despite the reduction of the economy, almost a third of our plans are being implemented, e . the peaceful plan to implement it in 9 months according to the income of which is controlled by the tax e-e, at

the same time, the year of the step to the 22nd year, the military year, the year in which the economy stopped until the peaceful 21st year, we convince the plan as far as 17 and 1/10 % - this is 8 months to 9 months, we will continue to look, here we have vat overpayments, we have excise tax overpayments, and this all indicates that yes, and along with this, we definitely have income tax underpayments and the further it is not to be fulfilled, the greater we will be we understand the origins of this and everyone understands, but the infantization of the economy, which the president spoke about and set us this task, it is obviously going and we are obviously succeeding in removing a large part of the economy from this wall next to this next to this if we look at the numbers of this of the year and next year's numbers, the military expenses for

security and defense are covered by 78% of our ordinary income and 88%. and considering that this is the number one priority and to victory, we understand that these funds that we collect inside the country, there is not enough potential for any significant increase in taxes or, uh, well, there are no threadbare tax reforms in the big increase, and there is no time to talk about it, even if there was such a desire from the other side, there is definitely no reason for reducing taxes, and these are the conversations which sometimes happen in the environment of social networks, they are from the sly and

rather reflect some pr and shows than some real discussions. thus, we have the only source to repay our expenses - this is help partners, which can be in the form of grants, can be in the form of loans, if we look at the structure of the financing of the expenses of the 2023 budget, we will see that half of these expenses are actually financed from these sources, although the 20-23 budget does not reflect grants, if you see there only 250 million uah at the expense of grants is provided as a source , and this is not because we do not count on grants, we count on them, it is because the peculiarities of the budget process do not allow us to determine certain sources, sources in which we do not say we cannot

to confirm on paper some e, that's why e-e, on the one hand, there is a certain potential in this grant aid, most of which we expect to receive from the government of the united states of america and the european commission, on the other hand, we are counting on a large program with the imf and e- e financing of credit financing from the world bank and from the imf and from and also from the governments of our western partners, you and i do not have any alternative, whether to borrow or not to borrow, we do not have anything to cut if you see the budget 20-23 then in addition to war, in addition to the security army. there is a large article on social security. i mean not only directly pensions and social benefits, by the way,

we index social benefits with pensions , we increase some, but not much without populism, so there, er, we have an article on e- e education , respectively, the article on e-e medicine, which unfortunately we are forced to reduce, we have provided for subsidies, but this is the social minimum that e-e exists and which we cannot refuse, in addition to this, the budget provides 42 billion for e-e fund e-e to the fund liquidation of the consequences of aggression and to help local budgets eh and eh it is also very important to do it is now important that the budget does not forget about these expenses and even some funds to help businesses because the 5 7 9 program is a development fund entrepreneurship, it increased by 126%. by

126% next year, and this is also important, but all these expenses can definitely be reduced, but against the background of total expenses of two and a half trillion e-e, even a reduction in aid to the business economy and e-e funds that are directed to liquidate the consequences of armed aggression, they will provide a significant economic potential, and the economy will not provide significant potential, despite the fact that next year's budget does not foresee a decrease in tax revenues, despite the fact that the economy is decreasing once again. i want to emphasize that we still have no opportunity at their expense to finance all our expenses and you know. by the way, the partners do not give money to finance the war, to finance security and defense, they help only for other expenses of the state

we must finance the war at our own expense, so next year the issue of administration will be very relevant. the issue of combating tax evasion will be very relevant as it is now, and as this issue is now, on the other hand, we will not consider opportunities . for a significant increase in taxation for the economy, which is, to put it mildly, not in the best condition. well, in continuation, i have a question for you: how does international financial aid actually affect the hryvnia exchange rate today, and how can it affect us in the future? unequivocally international aid, since it is an inflow of funds within the framework of the balance of payments, this is the one at the beginning

. what is this help, and in the form of guarantees and loans , it is, er, the entry into the country is over, moreover, we should talk about the fact that, actually, we need to try to restore the tides little by little the country's investments are currently working , the president said about it, the representatives of the international community said that there are mechanisms for the insurance of foreign investments. in the conditions of martial law, if part of the international aid can be directed, including non-similar insurance, then we can count on the fact that everything the recovery of investment in the country will take place, especially since the recovery process is starting little by little today, recovery from critical e-war

infrastructure destruction, for this it is already a promising field for investors in the future, when the recovery process unfolds, it will be a colossal field for foreign investors, and it will also be positive for the balance of payments, so that is exactly the forecast. i think that the forecast that was based on the exchange rate for the next year took into account not only guaranteed grant guaranteed grants, these 200 million kopecks yes, but still, what is a larger spectrum of probable incomes, and it is possible that after all, since the methods are sufficiently complex, it is concrete calculating the start of the balance of payments next year was simply, well, very difficult and impossible, so here is my subjective expert opinion. the opinion is that if this front develops in a normal way, there will not be any , let's say, negative reversals of the situation related to the war it is possible that this exchange rate is

42. not the end of the year. 50 - it is possible that the hryvnia exchange rate is too low, so to speak, and we can observe a certain change or at least stability or, in fact, the situation as they say the war will show what the war will show, but let's hope that this process will not last long , at least all these expectations. they are primarily related to the economic component, which we are currently discussing, mr. oleksiy. and what do you think of the statement of our manufacturers, which ? and the exchange rate and taxes of agro and farmers who said that there will be no winter season because there are fluctuations in fuel prices and the exchange rate is not sustainable and so on. and that is, well, in principle, they will not have the opportunity, let's say, to earn and pay for it that's all - from all that danylo hetman just talked about the support that is absolutely necessary from western partners, should we in principle expect, for example, the same growth in gdp now, not only about agriculture, but now, in principle, about the

ability of ukrainians to earn and pay during the winter 23 spring of the year and beyond. well, gdp growth in the 23rd year is quite a controversial topic because the interest was laid because, well, on the one hand, it is not possible to grow on a low statistical basis, that is, the ukrainian economy by 30-40% approximately will fall in the 22nd year, respectively, if the level of decline is very deep this year, then in the next year, on a low statistical base, it is possible to show an increase there by two to three by 4%. but this is on the condition that in a certain way the war factor will still be minimized. that is, if we have a full-scale war in the 23rd year and it will take place during this year, then it is unlikely that we will even have such a minimal growth, that is our economy will continue to fall because economic assets will unfortunately be destroyed logistic logistics routes will be complicated if there is a certain

freezing of the conflict, then the economy will really begin to recover gradually, and here the main thing for us is that you know, those are enough. at the stage of post-war recovery, we are now saying that, once again, there is a certain paradox that the economy has been largely destroyed, but tax revenues continue to more or less cover the budget's expenses. well, every month we we are currently collecting approximately 90 billion hryvnias in taxes, this is less than it was before the war, but this is not a critical fall. contributions, income tax, military

contribution, they are one of those systems forming the budget budget taxes, the only social contribution, it does not go to the budget, but it goes to the pension fund, well, that is, approximately 600 billion hryvnias per year is collected from ukrainians and from them and from their labor, relatively speaking, yes, these are taxes on labor and the corresponding labor levies are a single social contribution of about 300 billion uah - this is a value-added tax that ukrainians pay in the price of ready-made goods and services that they buy, that is, almost a trillion hryvnias, that is. simple ukrainians are forming a budget. this is the pre-war model. that is, business pays less than the population pays, and here we see what is so interesting, an interesting observation in august, for example, income to the pension fund increased by 30%. compared to

august 2020, the additional income in the form of a single social contribution amounted to several tens of billions of uah. the military security sector is now almost a million people in in ukraine, it is about 10%. well, from taxpayers , well, maybe a little less, but there are up to 10% of taxpayers, and we see that we are constantly before ah, well, they pretended, well, let's say, he imposed the opinion that these are primary taxes, and expenses are secondary , that is, first of all, they must be collected in the form of taxes i will later divide what was collected in the form of expenses. and now we see that, on the contrary, state expenses are primary, and taxes are already secondary, that is, the state first began to spend huge amounts of money on the security and defense sector, including in the form of salaries, and only later this money began to be returned with the statement that taxes are not primary, er,

such a thesis was voiced, after all, secondary or primary, and do you agree with the thesis a-a p oleksia what well, they began to spend more there, let's say on defense, on the military a i will remind you that prime minister shmygal said that in our budget, reformatted for the 23rd year, it will be 50% of all budget expenditures specifically for defense, the ability and all these things, so it turns out that the replenishment will be even more, that is, of these, the military will spend 50% - it will be on salaries that is, we literally have 5 minutes at a time, you have the opportunity, in fact, there is nothing to argue about, taxes cannot be primary in the states, this is a non-profit institution that must earn the maximum amount of money, taxes are determined by expenditures and directly you are definitely a surplus budget, this is bad this means that we collect taxes incorrectly we take more from business, where it is, this money is much more effective

than in the state's pocket, so there is nothing to start here, the only thing i want to pay attention to is that if you look at the figures from year to year, the tax on the incomes of individuals, it is collected in almost the same volume as last year, and indeed there is an effect of an increase in the wages of the military, but vat and excise tax are growing and growing, and this somehow speaks of childization. at the same time, well the question of who pays the tax i would not be like that let's say so categorically because if we understand thoroughly, then all taxes are paid by the consumer in one way or another and even the corporate income tax if there were no such income if the consumer did not give it there would be no profit from this tax. therefore, these taxes in our state and any other state are paid by people in one way or another and by the whole society , and it is very important. just now, this is what

oleksiy was talking about. i would like to emphasize something that if once before the war, a person i said that i will pay taxes to this state, they will steal these taxes and er, actually, er, better let them stay in my pocket. in this way, tax evasion was justified, then the absolute war removed this argument, because everything we earn goes either to the army or on social media and e-e here, any tax evasion becomes not just a crime, it becomes looting, and that is why it seems to me that this is not the last factor. why do we convince peaceful plans? on taxation as such and this is correct and we should leave some after the victory. well, yaroslav, please

, your final word is really very important. did the state raise it? it is today the largest employer in the country, and what during the current of the year, they tried to maximally support the payment of wages, social benefits, pensions , social benefits, and so on. this was done by the economy, including those businesses that were already selling their goods. about the budget of the 23rd year, there is a very serious risk associated with the fact that today the expenditure part is planned for less than the expenditure part planned for the twenty-second year, so these are the peculiarities of the budget planning e pment said about it but is it possible that today it is necessary to conduct negotiations with foreign partners and still include more

of this grant component in the revenue part of the budget so that it is still possible to increase the expenditure part to a certain extent because, well, there is only the risk of what such a decrease may already result in irreversible structural changes, the liquidation of certain budgetary institutions in the form of the curtailment of certain important macroeconomic processes that are service-oriented institutions and well, here we can lose this driving driver of economic dynamics, which in the current struggle to give us a budget in conditions of war, unfortunately , we have to rely, including on budget expenditures, the market is important, but it is so important to support the market, so i would suggest all to think that before preparing the ballot for the second reading, try to increase this guarantee part more due to the conclusion of agreements with our foreign partners, this will allow us to be more optimistic, including looking at forecasts of the economic dynamics of the next year,

despite some negative triggers, which are primarily related to the war, still, uh, well , the numbers and comments have more or less provided for the end of the current year and the beginning of the 23rd year in our guests, thank you for an opportunity to communicate. let us remind you that oleksiy kushchik , economist, financial analyst and online, yaroslav zhalila, economist, deputy director of the national institute of strategic studies, and danylo hetmantsev, chairman of the committee of the verkhovna rada of ukraine, were with us in the studio on the issues of finance, tax and customs policy anna communal nazar our long broadcast continues thank you that with us new times give birth to new symbols good evening we are from ukraine a symbol of our indomitability stood on the lockers and insubordination a symbol of revenge and

memory of ancestors a kind heart and motherhood a symbol of the host's family twists are a symbol of despair and the main symbol of fantastic people, we will see their faces in the news, their names will not be found in the lists of awardees, they are unknown, and they are not counted, they report on enemy positions, they are pasted up leaflets and blow up traitors, they bring victory closer and because of them, the enemy has the earth burning under his feet because this is our land. glory to the ukrainian partisans, this is my country, my fields, my friends, brothers

, parents, children, neighbors, students, doctors, teachers, soldiers , all of us, all of us, regardless of age, faith, favorite beliefs, we everyone is now united. we will win. glory to ukraine. good evening. every evening at 8:00 p.m., we and the marathon keep our finger on the pulse and summarize for the fire two military releases of the only news for the marathon about the most important events of the day, turn on the only news to keep up to date with the main leading channels of ukraine fight together in the marathon the only news

the main thing every day at 20:00 unconquered cities of ukraine kryvyi rih the iron heart of ukraine and the longest city in europe its man-made landscapes attract guests and industrial tourism is actively developing in the city kryvyi rih lands were part of zaporizhia troops in the city, the central governing body of kish zaporizhia sich was located during archaeological excavations in balka, ukrainian archaeologist oleksandr pol discovered the remains smelting furnaces that testify that the scythians were still engaged in metallurgy here during the years of nazi occupation , the head of the city administration, serhiy sherstyuk, led the popular resistance and introduced the official use of the ukrainian language and anthem

. in addition to an iron heart , they also have a steel cossack character kryvyi rih unconquered children of war wounded and killed missing persons deported and displaced if you know any information about a missing or deported child, report it on the children of war state portal at the address children of war.gov.ua or by calling 0 850 17:20 help bring the child home, she is yours and in defense day and night

desperately and confidently they armor paves the way to our victory tank troops the pride of the armed forces united news together we are strong the armed forces need drones make your contribution five in the morning in ukraine news time on the nationwide 24-hour marathon of our country's leading tv channels united news ua together my name is andriy sinitsyn, congratulations, we want to start an attack on mykolaiv tonight , explosions rang out in the city, there were hits in various areas of the city, a number of civilian objects, houses, shops , and the water supply network were damaged.