the government of ukraine, well, with a large land, as it is customary to call it, and efforts to create such social systems under the leadership of local leaders and at the top with the russians, so that people there all their lives were focused on taxes, humanitarianism, the salary of the russian occupation authorities and had less contact, and there were fewer reasons to contact with free territories or with people who live there, that is, this referendum will launch a whole bunch if it is recognized as a whole bunch of bureaucratic such daily problems for the whole local the population and of course will free the hands of the executioners from the division and other power relations. look at the procedural one more point. they can't after they are, so to speak, convinced of what they are going to do. in particular, it is about announcing the annexation is complete and so on. so, or

can't they, uh, in order of appearance, transfer all citizens of ukraine who live in the temporarily occupied territories of kherson zaporozhye and so on according to the list of regions to russian citizenship, of course and they will create the conditions i said about it, it is forced passportization, i.e. if you want to go to the hospital, show your passport, i didn't show it, you don't get medical help, you want to go anywhere, you will be asked for a passport. and then we don't accept ukrainian passports, then we don't accept ukrainian birth certificates of children, then we don't accept there, the transition period is kind of short, very brief, they give it because they don't have time to issue these passports themselves, and that's why they will this is the way to act of course there will be forced passporting under the pretext of intimidation to the payment of some unfortunate material funds so that you only get a passport and open bank accounts, block

cards e-e sevens on passports and everything and the rest. we thank you for this conversation. vadym chernysh is on our air, the minister of temporarily occupied territories and internally displaced persons of ukraine from 2016 to 2019, and we are moving on. pavel usov is already joining us from belarus, a political scientist who mentioned belarus. in particular, water in chernysh, eh, paul, we congratulate you. good afternoon, pavel, everything is alive. belarus is new. lukashenko flew to putin, so to speak. we saw this sad sight . but the main thing is the consequences. offered in response, that is, as far as we understand, lukashenko is not ready to announce a general mobilization in order to throw belarusian recruits to reinforce the

russian interventionists. lukashenka's schedule, let's start with the fact that lukashenko still remains in the whole of sochi, he has not returned, this is the first moment, the second moment, we are not leading anything. when everyone was waiting for onyka, although there was little information about what was going on tuesday, which in the end was to make a decision, no one received any information until today, they are silent, the propagandists are silent, the official media are silent the information is clearly what the reservation was about, although we know what oleg's mountain was doing, this information is already the other evening of constipation - there is no way that silent lukashenko will shed light on a lot of

what is a rather critical situation for belarus, this is absolutely optimistic the scenario, for sure lukashenka, putin will need the first recognition of the referendum, the second recognition of the inclusion of the territory of ukraine into the russian federation due to the fact that belarus is an ally of russia, it is part of the union state and according to the treaties about the union state in other treaties, with the exception of when one of the members of the union is exposed to external aggression, the others must actively participate in the defense of their ally - this means that belarus is the third, and it can announce internal mobilization, and the fourth can go to war when

russia is open, for example after goethe, the territory will be chosen. as girkin said, if the war is waged in ukraine, there will be a war in ukraine in 200 with seven consequences. well, the last one is the most logical. in this situation, this accommodation i don't have an additional contingent of russian troops on the territory of belarus, and they are there now, but since the beginning of the 20th century, the number of military personnel there has been reduced to 5-7,000, so the contingent can be increased again to 50,000, as it was before the aggression. uh, february 2022 , and uh, in the same way, in the same way, the tactical and strategic nuclear weapons of russia may be deployed on the territory of belarus. this

is currently the most pessimistic scenario that runs away from the logic of what is being fought in the very russia, and which arise from the fact that lukashenko suddenly flew away, as a matter of fact, this was done before the aggression of ukraine. well , thirdly, there is no information about the formal fact that, well, we talked about the bulb, went on a yacht, drank hummus, and there was no information at all. absolutely informative tisha and er and here is the size of the er star about that and er there may be speculations or one way or another the border in belarus may be closed for departure , our previous guest vadym chernysh says that there are conversations among the leaders of the west, among the options for how

to respond to russia's threats to use nuclear weapons, that one of the options is to strike belarus with its military potential. that is, there are two nuances when it will allow . first of all, well, in fact, no one and this is quite an active consideration, as well as i hacked this and the question. weapons on the russian infrastructure on the territory of belarus, including on these airfields, which of them include uh, russian strategic bombers are not shooting at ukraine, it ’s a zabrovka or a hole, even everyone expects that it will be done by uh, the ukrainian armed forces, like that and the

break, and this is the situation in the east or is it absolutely logical that the second point is to say no when , for example, russia uses tactical nuclear weapons in ukraine, the west can use nuclear weapons to strike tactically on the territory of belarus. when you're not already there, you want to go, then let's attack kaliningrad in the region in this enclave on the spot, or for reasons far away, near belarus, that's right. let the ready-made reaction be completely inadequate . strongly aguraeva for all those who really understand what is happening in er belarus belarus is zalognitsya er russian politics i on er russia used lukashenko the belarusian people as

absolutely no reason and does not carry a conditionally direct отвязности до что о-а российские войские от кромя лукашенко, well, do you want to strike no strike , er, strike cruise missiles or non-nuclear warheads, let's say on the same residence of lukashenko with a minimum of human losses. well, when otaki was already er-e powerful the strong thing that prevents you from striking russia itself is knee-jerk use of nuclear weapons. of course, it’s still scenarios, i don’t bother about that, what the hell, i can’t blame. there’s no strategy, no directness, those reactions, uh, in the event that you become, for example, russia will use weapons mass defeat well, i'm not talking about crimea, crimea, the participation of ukraine, but bad things, with the same with

the same, it would also be possible to strike at crimea, let them strike at moscow already here, uh, look, we understand that they can putin needs belarusian soldiers, we understand that on the one hand the belarusian army is not a powerful structure, but the main thing is to include belarus in the russian mobilization plans, it is difficult to say whether lukashenko will agree to such a thing, because it generally changes the situation in country, but we understand that, first of all, we also need putin. what will the situation look like in the event that lukashenko agrees and announces the mobilization of belarusians in favor of the russian interventionists, when lukashenko, as i have already said, recognizes the referendum and recognizes the territory of russia as part of russia, then

, unfortunately, that is all will go according to the most negative institution, eh, this is a promise of mobilization. at the moment, the mobilization potential of belarus is about 300,000 people, and this is not treating those who are currently in the armed forces belarus is 45,000 and two scenarios can be fought here, one is easier for me than the other, the first is the belarusians together with the military contingent that will be stationed on the territory of our country, the country will say 50,000 and in general with the mobilized belarusians and they will open another front on peron where kyiv you are most likely to be the lunar herun in volyn, how to cross all the transport routes for this, there will be a return to the situation from february 22nd, who is still, but i am still a

much more common version of the fadeev application udarov and уборование nau in the direction of lviv, and they will be in the direction of kyiv, the least creating such tension with such a large number of troops is how the ukrainians threw their troops at midnight and weakened their concentration and their offensive to the east on the unification of kherson and in this way, how much to use the stretching of the front line, the stretching of the resources , to deal with how the opponents will strike, for example, from the same kherson, this from the same donetsk, luhansk, with a punch that i did not pierce the guest to attack i will still be in the summer, that is, such a scenario will be very important. we are the second moment that those mobilized in belarus can be directed again within the general limits of this army. they can be controlled in krym

. it exists, that is, it is necessary to understand that putin has already mobilized and approached with all eyes internal resources and of course lukashenko will also need the maximum return, the tank of the maximum uh-uh uh-uh inclusion in military money uh-uh in ukraine there are a lot of russians now uh-uh came in guests in belarus in recent days in connection with the mobilization. because we do not have a border with russia, and in fact everyone who has transport and can use a tractor can come to belarus. - already back

after the frenzied demobilization and they are deporting them back to russia in what number, what is the thing, it was difficult to say, because in fact there are no independent topics of alternative pages of information that could show that everything is happening in belarus, but the information on the very river essay 1 mobilization was quite widespread that the russian is caught by the russian in belarus, because it is also necessary to understand that from the territory of belarus everything will not go anywhere, they cannot go to poland, they cannot stop going to poland, because the poles do not cancel schengen visas and now they can get to lithuania and they can't get to latvia, that is, belarus is such a kind of trap for them.

countries that are not going to extradite let kazakhstan explain that they will not extradite a russian woman and they will not deport her to mongolia, and belarus was considered as an option, but only for those who do not know that i have actually been to belarus gt-2-1 well, i think that most russians understand that belarus appears as an aggressor in this war against ukraine, that is why such flows that we will see from kazakhstan to georgia are not there in belarus. has the following option how to opt out from what putin will demand because we would understand that everything has gone too far and in general what is the phenomenon of lukashenko why is he still alive so maybe it would be easier to change lukashenka for someone more loyal, well, i don't know, for a make-believer or for one of my own generals or for kadyrov to appoint a belarusian as president is very similar for

lukashenka, it's helmia, it's dangerous when he doesn't recognize it, well, of course, they can remove it, and the authorities go to the so-called security council of belarus on the basis of the constitution of the new leto prescribed by the head general of russian origin appears in the security council in lvovych, who in fact appears to be one of the most prominent supporters of the russian dawn in belarus. certainly, the security council will fulfill all the requirements of putin that are relevant to the security council. at the level of this assessment , he can or can he. here are the options that lukashenko does not play the results of the referendum. this is a much more fantastic scenario, because they have resources in the power and personal lukashenko, there are no

guarantors of the event. because such a scenario had to be worked out much earlier, that is, the area he does not recognize with a referendum says that ukraine should remain integral , we recognize the border of ukraine as a sovereign state, then the west at this very moment should have overheated and provided grants for lukashenka and for belarus, because we all understand that after such a statement by the nau, it is simple that he does not recognize the evidence that there are russian troops in belarus and it is unknown what contingent of bachnerovs and other special services the game of the russian and he can be killed in the blink of an eye so that the coup is completely with his eyes and no one will be able to ensure lukashenko, not tehran and zahidna, but the helmets will react to this for a long time and he will be alone

thinking about what he is doing now, but there is no understanding of how to react in this case when lukashenko , for example, does not recognize a referendum good day to you pavel pavlo usov belarusian political scientist was with us thank you very much for participating in the express broadcast, we end this hour with military analysis ivan krychevskyi is with us he represents the publication defense express ivan dobrogo eh good day generous evening good day well the last news we reported was that the armed forces of ukraine recaptured kupyansk from the russians knotty this is kharkiv region what is the strategic weight of this one side we have finally taught the importance of the enemy a strategic logistics point that the russians used everything to supply their troops in the donbas, that is, of course, before that, if we had checked the railway that went from kharkiv

oblast to there, trying part of it to the north, but from other of countries is still repulsed by calluses, a significant station that was controlled by the russians from the first day. this is definitely such an important psychological success. on the other hand, if you look at the geographical location of this kupyansk node, it means that, let's say, the case of the armed forces of ukraine in the end was the clearing of the public kharkiv region from the russian invaders, including the polycledation of the enemy's so-called eskili bridgehead , it is advancing successfully and we have spent a lot of time on this space, we can go as according to some data , the russians lost up to 10 of their relatively new t-90 tanks in the attempts to counterattack our troops in that direction, and they only had 300 of them there and did not store 500. that is, it was a very tangible loss for them, that is, we can say that to get kupyansk and its surroundings, the russians threw literally the last thing they had there and did not

get it. dear mr. expert, well, there is information so that the russian groups in the area of ​​the estuary have every chance of getting into the operational environment, we understand that hellish battles are going on there, but one guard , more precisely, the main route that ensures the vital activity of the russian group under the estuary. it is already under the fire control of the horsemen or under the physical control of our fighters , respectively, to what extent is this situation in the area of ​​the estuary strategic in general for the formation of our continuation of our continent let's start here, what are the logistical arteries of the occupiers in that area, they are still under our fire control, good control in this case is quite enough to, let 's say, first of all, really speed up the process

of this operational encirclement of the occupiers under the estuary well, secondly, let's say that if god's defense under the estuary crumbles according to the same scenario as it was, for example, near balaklia and kupyansk, which is the main kupyansk, not kupyansk, oh , the same thing is waiting for us to repeat the scenario that in the kharkiv region was called regrouping on the territory occupied by the russian occupiers, simply put, if the russians do not maintain their defenses near the estuary, then they will again have a cascade collapse, and here again, you know two challenges for the collective forces of ukraine to catch up with the russian occupiers who will rapidly flee well , and secondly, to advance exactly to the extent that they do not allow the stretching of their communications well, what do you think what is the strategic nature of the battles zalimanskoe zazazaliman and yes, and attempts are said so to speak, to translate the lyman group or operational entourage into russian yes.

that is, it opens the way for us to go where you know, let's look at the situation in such a strategic dimension, some of our colleagues generally talk about the events in the kherson region and now in the east of ukraine as about the beginning of the whole, namely, the strategic operation of the armed forces of ukraine to finally intercept the initiative, their hands are fixed accordingly, that is, simply put, the armed forces of ukraine are now trying to do everything possible so that the russians in principle could not, in principle , pay the initiative, the only thing they could do on our land is retreat with maximum high losses for, accordingly, in such a large strategic picture of the world, because the battle for liman battle according to lyman, it looks like such an important psychological point, not a point that should open up new victories for us if the russian

occupiers break even there and they can completely break there because judging by such tragic nationalities of the local russian soldiers, let's just say the kremlin is unlikely to be able to send its army again on the offensive against the armed forces of ukraine, because your previous guest there noted that belarus is preparing for an incomprehensible opening there of russian military echelons. well, it is obvious that if the russian army receives such a hellish and painful defeat under the estuary , then in principle it will not be able to advance anywhere else , because it will finally break mr. ivan, intelligence reports that the enemy is planning massive attacks on critical infrastructure and missiles and at the same time in cyberspace, which means that it can be on one side of the solar system of our intelligence believes that the fascists still have few missiles left and, according to them, the russians will have to duplicate the use of cruise missiles on our energy

infrastructure and attempts to carry out cyber attacks, but with on the other hand, as we can see from some open sources, well, the russians are trying to organize a cyberattack against our critical infrastructure, how are you there on energy facilities or there on the website of state departments constantly, that is, every day? well, fortunately for the russians, all cyberattacks fail. with very rare exceptions, therefore, on the one hand, the main directorate of intelligence described that the russians have such a plan that they save missiles precisely under this backside and that is why, for example, odessa is now being shelled kamikaze drones are not a proper weapon for this , yes, instead of cruise missiles. well, on the other hand , such a message is a rather threatening message from the main intelligence agency and does not mean that they will be able to celebrate their purpose in life , on the contrary, that the armed forces of ukraine together with their partners will do everything so that the russians could not implement all this. well, they are preparing to go to norway, so to speak, to scrape up everything that is in the

military warehouses in order to hand it all over to us. and what is there, what is there, how many supplies norway, a nato country that is very good at keeping its secrets, is led by one side, so of course there are some, well, you know, she will not indicate the specific physical volume, but in any case, regarding the nomenclature of ammunition, we can fully assume what it might be about, first of all, 155 caliber charges mm because, well, the norwegian army has only 48 self-propelled art installations, and this is precisely the 155 mm caliber art system, and some of them are self-propelled self-propelled anti-aircraft guns of the m109 type, she has already given us a part and a part of these norwegian sauters that it was lit up there during the deoccupation of kharkiv oblast from resoluteists from that nomenclature, which could be well, for example, one shot of mortars caliber 71 mm and 120 mm, well, such nomenclature. we also

used eyes from the fact that it does not lie on the surface, but it is quite possible that anti-tank missiles have a larger firing range than the javelin and today rockets to the m-270 systems, because you know, pure imperial logic dictates that once the norwegians found these systems, they did not store them, and it turns out that they should first give this m270 an inspection great britain and then great britain should give us this installation, then, accordingly, the norwegians can be reactive systems, well, that is, border rockets. well, it is even quite possible that these at2 anti-tank mines, which are now actively used in the kherson region and are fired from rockets maybe they were also taken in norway, but you understand the key issue is about self-contained installations that should significantly strengthen our anti-aircraft defense . well, accordingly, the united states said that they

will be ready to provide them to us in the near future, which may actually be a couple of weeks or a couple of months. for the russians to know exactly when these nasans complexes will be put on combat duty and, accordingly, their age , in the area in which they are equipped to be on duty. of the latest weapons for us. they will be kept as secret as possible and, moreover, such technologies will be used. you know, in kyiv, first of all, there are ambiguous messages that indicate that we have another weapons system, and then quickly throw in objections. oh, no, no, we are in a hurry, we don’t have such a thing, that’s why what started when we were watching we received the armored personnel carrier from

the press complexes, we didn't get something, but in general, the video was filmed at some training ground in nato, such an interesting story comes out here, obviously right now, our military, our allies, have an installation such that the first to know about the appearance of this or that weapon system is that we have to find out about the emergence of this or that weapon system, which turned into successful shootings at the gruz 200, that’s about it, mr. ivan, i also want your opinion about there are mobilizations, but we are of course happy with those funny videos where they are drunk and all, but we should not underestimate the number and well, really. how do you think it will change? well, how can this mobilization now have an impact? well, obviously, this is not the last wave of mobilization like us we have now to prepare for this well, rather, as they have well, let's say

that, of course, we as civilians people, we can hardly somehow prepare like that, also prepare for mobilization well, from the fact that on the one hand, of course, it should not be excluded that the mobilization of specialists for specific military-trained specialists there will be on the other hand, apparently the russian federation is planning to collect all this mass of 300,000 reservists there and then dump the russians on the front, apparently, and throw away all this cannon fodder it is allowed to recruit a party in the format of meat and throw it immediately to the front to slow down our advance , so you know, maybe the best reaction to such a strategy of the russians will be to improve the quality of the training of the soldiers of the armed forces of ukraine, because judging even from what we see from open sources now, for example, the ministry of defense of ukraine is making a request for the maximum expansion of the program of our

fighters, that is, that in skype, they once consulted on the supply of additional psychotechnological weapons of high-precision systems, that is, not on the increase there is not in opposition to their living mass there, it is not that our fighters are on the order of higher quality than the russian occupiers. moreover , if the methodology during the day, the methodology of war according to nato standards, if it assumes that the ability to win, including less human more resources than the adversaries have. thank you, ivany falls. ivan kyrychevskyi defense express worked live on the espresso tv channel. well, valevska and i. what are we doing? we pass the word to the best ukrainian journalists, yes to our colleagues. colleagues, thank you for the most important newsroom will tell you in a few moments, i will start with the fact that the russian nazis closed the temporarily occupied part of the kherson region