е next е espresso broadcast continues olga laziness with the program of information war chronicles stay on our channel congratulations today on the russian federation they will show rising from the knees all day but the propagandists still openly tell who this show is intended for and how strange it is that it is intended even not only for that to show that we have grown territories there, we have acquired something from someone there , how much in order to conduct negotiations, as it turns out, look, we are ready, in some perspective, we will have to negotiate with ukraine the west has established a barrier that will present itself not only for the west but also for some representatives of uh, uh, you are stalking out that way, uh,

who are acting like uh, that's exactly what they are talking about with concessions. from this point of view , in general, the conspiracy theory regarding the negotiations on russian television recently, uh, just a lot, almost constantly, they talk about it in different contexts. but about one and the same thing, look, er, one is so conspiratorial and well, in principle, i would say yes, well, this is actually somewhat fake such conversations but nevertheless, it is worth knowing that they want this, they are subject to this rule, see quite recently, there was a conversation about the fact that in the event of their return to ukraine, you are prisoners, the transit of our ammonia through

ukrainian territory is resumed. this was a proposal in kiev. the following exchange of prisoners of war is supposed to take place in october, and there is almost a formula of everyone on everyone, after that, the exchange of viktor is supposed to take place, but it’s someone, i don’t know who we have there. the story is also explained by the fact that uh, this is a big deal, including uh, it includes an obligation from the west, it will unfreeze some of our uh, financial assets, that is, there are types if this is so. sanctions don't interfere, the russians say. but we want to unfreeze them. it's not clear why. if they help, it's one thing and another. the border is now you'll hear such fantasies, you know. they're not completely clear to us. but nevertheless, they

are circulating now in the russian informant, see yesterday evening there was a lot of talk about the fact that the hostage was allegedly called gerasimov, there were no reports confirming this, and there was no previous information , at the same time, this same hostage in time magazine praised gerasimov and called him his teacher. in general, there is proof that this article is on the internet on paper, including that it came out. what are the processes ? is there no feeling at the front that there are any agreements being made somewhere? between our high command and ukrainian representatives of the opening command, there is no current the third one will not have a place. well, i will explain this plot to you, yes , it is absolutely normal, such false

statements, but, uh, really, the russians are very actively dispersing this messenger, is there any conflict between zaluzhnym and zelensky, uh, zaluzhny is trying to pursue some kind of political career. in fact, all these conversations are primarily calculated on the reaction of the president's office there, nothing particularly works out of them, they even admit it themselves, ah, let's say that the only negotiations that can behave with the russian military command, this is about the unconditional surrender of their troops that are currently on the territory of ukraine, simply surrendering or retreating back to russia eh well, i say even the propagandists themselves understand the futility of these look at the conversations, you don’t need to get carried away with another geological fantasy. the first election, the us congress,

nothing will change. the plans are completely pointless and that's really true and well, meanwhile, the mobilization is going on in russia, and there are already the last ones. mobilization, and in general, everything that arose around it prompted, for example, margarita simonian, well, finally, to examine the third way for russia, look when i wrote what i see i can't

unload the third one somehow, it was before the announcement of partial mobilization, now i'm the third one. of our history in the last 100 years or so, we have only been through it twice, including the monstrous civil war at the beginning of the 20th century and the fact that the civil war in different er regions of the republics of our former motherland of the soviet union was almost during my lifetime, and she actually gave great advice simonian, how should one behave in the case of mobilization? i think this is exactly what should be shown to the russians so that they think, let's have a very partial, very pointy mobilization, which i remember very well. this was a mobilization in in the late 1980s, specifically in the city of krasnodar, when they arrived at night and gathered these very uh, those who were in the reserve, who already had jobs and other jobs, the reservists had a

completely different life. a completely incomprehensible war to them and what started what started in the morning pogroms began pogroms began three days followed by thunder until everyone was returned that's how you are probably in open sources and you won't find anything about it yes indeed, you cannot find such a thing in russian, but since it happens, it can happen again. well, in general, we will talk about what can be and what can not be. let's talk now with vitaly kulak, this is a political scientist, the director of the center for the study of civil society programs, oleksiy holobutsky technology politician, deputy director of the situation modeling agency. i congratulate you . actually, my question will probably start with oleksiy. so, why is there such a reaction of the russians to the mobilization, precisely because, well i have the impression that this mobilization is really being carried out by some agents of ukraine, why are you so fierce, are you personally exiled there by budanov or something? well,

let's go anyway, eh, in order to be less objective, we need to understand what numbers we are talking about, we don't know because he published people who are still talking about it. he is evading what percentage ran in. we don’t know. the numbers are different. they understand that we are delighted. says simonyan, it doesn't happen all at once, it's absolutely logical, so putin demoted russian society for 22 years, he destroyed civil society, but did not create an effective maximum effective totalitarian totalitarian state that behaves like i could organization in a few days between minimal losses and

controlling the entire population and now we have what we are talking about yes she is trying to appeal to should we look for civil society so that civil society on a patriotic such in the rise, they supported this mobilization, the war, and so on, and there is no civil society. just like that, it was liquidated, so from a formal point of view, it has rights, and there are simply no mechanisms. so we have a civil society in ukraine, which, roughly speaking, is being prepared in in the military commissariats and where they do not go to the front, there is the rise of the volunteer movement and so on, yes, with some elements of state coercion, of course. not without this, the ban on leaving there and so on, but martial law. it is clear. but this is, and in russia there is only coercion the state because everything else was constantly muted, even

these cheering patriots, you showed khodakovsky there, who talked about the hard-working and about, but read what the right has an arrow and all the patriotic stuff, well, how to say the community or some other shit - it's not the best word what do they call him, that's it, and the authorities kept them in the same way all the time in such a unit, so they killed nationalists, threw them out of vika recently, yes, last year . liquidated, everything is destroyed, and here is simonyan - this will be a call to nowhere, because there is simply no one on that side except for these military men who just work for a salary and the state apparatus that does not know what to do with all these statements which are the last ones i watched russian television telegram channels, i understand one thing: a specific program or a specific

installation, what to say and what to do at the moment, and roughly speaking, it really looks like there is a war party and a peace party, that is, language, and they compete with each other practically yes, that's why there's such a success, that's why there are some night decrees about the already independence of the kherson and zaporizhzhia regions. yes, not annexation. but about independence, yes. that is, there is such a struggle somewhere, and putin is. so where did he go for a few days? yes, he, as usual, when a critical situation goes to rest, and yesterday was on the investigation board, it’s interesting, well, it’s just that much, uh, i can’t look closely at russian events, but they did a study there that all these days they showed stupidly canned food and what kind of meeting, by the way, about which he also wrote about lukashenko, be lukashenko - this was also canned, that is, they are already, that is, putin is in a situation,

he simply does not know which side to take any option for him, the loss is uh, uh, uh, raise the rates in general, so it is not known whether it will end, go now, give you won't understand the rear, so to speak, his entourage, well, a certain entourage that demands a war there until the victorious end, that's the situation vitaliy well, look. well, actually, the question is, what internal processes can still take place in the russian federation "link" and with this announcement of the annexation of some lands there and this mobilization, uh, and all these others, because well, of course, by itself, russian propaganda has suffered, well, how can i say that mobilization has already been announced, it happens the way it happens when there are people running to god knows where when you have to run there, or a little bit not personally, all nightingales there and and and and simonyan to find out who

and how and where they are mobilizing, well, this is a loss of the propaganda itself in general, that is, well, clearly such a loss but nevertheless, what can happen that does not can take place in russian society, how can these processes take place, all of which have been launched by all these attempts to mobilize, as if society, well, first of all, it is worth looking at how the ratings of informational english programs are falling, they talked about it in relation to mobilization, the ratings of views have fallen many times, that is, there is distrust in seven propagandas, respectively, do not and will not believe that there , er, they transferred the mobilization of the total, some kind of calculation there, they punished the military commissars who did something wrong, er, despite all efforts propaganda is not believed in propaganda, this is the second time that people are actually resisting with their feet or the validity of the mobilization saboteurs are fleeing, there are enough

boots, groups are being created for the purpose of entering people without the same age from the agglomeration somewhere in the taiga and generally fleeing away from populated areas as well as the system of legal legal protection and assistance with how to untangle it correctly, this is a mass video of how people break their limbs in order not to fall under the slit , that is, in the general population. in other words, we can say that if earlier you didn't believe in the falsehoods and there were people who called for passive resistance, there is a small percentage of people with critical remnants of critical thinking, but those who are not capable of any active jet sports, now it is this percentage who did not believe their own propaganda, do not trust the authorities, which propaganda is promoting it and it is becoming more and

more. of course, this does not mean that it is the number of changes in the quality, so i am very careful here and with regard to forecasts regarding the civil conflict in the russian federation, but the fact that the elements of this a basis for the possible emergence of civil confrontation is already being created. i also see it there. but in order for standing citizenship to arise, there must be citizens, and in russia there are problems with this here , and i agree with the involvement of civil society in russia has not been created, they do not have a basic basic instinct they do not the instinct of self-organization, and the fact that there is a lot of it in ukraine. in russia, it is completely absent. and the basic instinct of self-organization is absent. it is present only in a small part of the criminal element, that is, the criminal element. the element is self-organizing, the gangs, the groups , organized, er, the criminal community, it quickly

organized itself, and now the russians fleeing to georgia, er, or there are creating certain er, gray schemes, how to make even petlandia from sub- prizes, all this really exists, but to create a self-organization for protest in order to go to the street and block the possibility of mobilization to prevent the same pogroms that semenyanya is talking about, and she should take it because talking to armenians is like the 80s eh and eh this is not even there, that is, this remnant of self-organization was destroyed by putin, therefore, at the moment of the point of view, everything will go into a pogrom, not everything is organized by a civil protest, but a gang and a pogrom with a capital letter is meaningless and merciless, when they will first take the power to take the military commissars, and then they will do the neighbor because he lives better . and actually, russia will end up as a state on this,

and state functions will gradually die out . and russia will turn into such a big black hole and informational impulses about aid or about some demands and ultimatums will come from this black hole with great delay because there are laws of physics so when time either speeds up or slows down and therefore no one and nothing will already help and in moscow which will remain only within the framework of kada as some kind of central government for the russian former russian federation after what will remain after russia and the fact that the fabric of society is collapsing and we are now seeing it through this mobilization. it is obviously not the ability to organize that will deepen this rhyming of the fabric society, the roots of society will be violated and, accordingly, there will be atomization, first as subjects, then individual clans, then corporations will want to nullify certain small territories where they

are present. to hear some of your thoughts on how quickly it could happen how it could happen how it could affect combat operations oh just oh these three aspects eh try me to tell because one well, it can be seen that the authorities of russia are somehow trying to delay it, even there there were some statements that it is not possible there, for example, national eyes, all kinds of republics, you can’t row so much from there, let’s somehow equalize the call so that it was in the central regions, so that it was not provoked to provoke any riots in these national republics. the mayor has a dead ram, we will give you a live one such

an interesting size but nevertheless, your opinion is interesting, how realistic it is, well, in the near future, how it will happen, literally, well, i understand that well, it is more like uh, how to say, not even fantasies i know, well, let's try, nevertheless, let's start with you, oleksia, in two or three weeks, as our well-known analysts say, experts, so to speak. what happened in russia in the russian empire 100 years ago and it is constantly talking about the russian rebellion, the demographic situation is completely different, a completely different situation yes, a very huge number of older people, older people, just an older society, yes, it cannot be

compared with iran, for example, or with many other countries where some certain events now, at least yes, but there is no such huge , that is, practically peasantry, in principle, as a class, there is practically no already in russia, yes, and people have become more mobile because of this, if peasants 100 years ago they knew why they were killing the landlords there , cadets, officers, and so on, it was more or less clear. yes, they wanted to get their land back, but here there is nowhere for the people. somewhere i will read how you depopulation yes when well supposedly the whole people are against but the government still remains in power because the borders are not closed parallel structures were created and well roughly speaking there are many mechanisms to get power even when the population

set against the topic russia is a more complicated country in that and our hope is that it is made of many pieces, so to speak, national geographical which are not inherent at all, well, that is, roughly speaking, here to die go to die by the hand of the idea or the russian world, and many people in russia simply there is no sense, because they, in this russian measure, will have to play a side role. according to the idea, in principle, yes, it is logical, it’s just there, well, our muslims are going to die for russians and the russian idea, so it can explode anywhere and anytime ah-ah, the russian government is. well, what if it is? the only thing that can be said is that if it starts to fall apart, everything will happen very quickly, very quickly, because i repeat a lot, a huge country will not be enough

. there is simply not enough repressive apparatus for everyone, and too many different interests are doing what they did . now kadyrov proposed to others to do exactly the mobiles somewhere like this and what, in principle , the central government intercepted these mobilizations at the moment, but the movement was understood in principle like this. everyone already understands more or less, including the national elites. yes, what this is already the final, so to speak, the final route will end in a year, in two, in three, but it is already clear that it will end somewhere and time x must have opportunities for the economy of the soldiers, roughly speaking, so that when this empire falls apart, they will have time to grab some piece and territory and resources and then do what the entire communist party elite did, in principle, including in

ukraine, when the soviet union was developing, considering what you say, oleksiy, in fact, with the old population, despite the fact that there the huge state sector turns out to be possible to prevent any riots there at all until the moment they are able to pay out money, uh, well, to state employees, that is, you can say that. not the same, but simonyan says the principles, the right things, just in the wrong conditions, and already when the trust is completely lost . in general, in principle, she can’t solve it, it’s also the coronavirus that showed that the state system of the russian state system is not functional, she ca

n’t when some sir. society, and secondly, that it can demand something from the state, then that's all and that's it, thank you, oleksiy, vitaly, look at your predictions about time and not the processes, but now all will affect military actions what is happening here? well, in my opinion, this is the scenario of the division of the russian federation. this is really a gradual dying out of the functions of the state. first, they will not be able to pay certain social benefits , then they will not be able to provide security for citizens, then they will not be able to provide the same mobilization . then you will be able to provide logistic logistics transport and so on and gradually these problems would accumulate so much as to tempt local

interest groups to simply seize power in these territories and through private military companies or some power structures, criminality, etc., to ensure the protection of this perimeter of these enclaves, some kind of control, it will be a crackdown, not about federal subjects, it will be a disintegration in the territories, which groups are able to control, and there is a possibility of the emergence of new independent states of various kaganates there, the chancellery or there but there will be a territory that is not controlled by anyone, the borders will change quickly, and it will be precisely in the territory of chaos, which will have to be dealt with, and here is the question about one industrial equal organization about industrial dementalization of the creation of the territory of global management when the light will have to intervene in the situation and as quickly as possible to establish control over certain objects of the nuclear industry

there nuclear plants or e-e sources of oil and gas or for example without them global management in the taiga for in order for these defects to occur here, i completely agree that time has a sign of quantumness and at the moment to say when exactly we will find this point of super fragility for russia i i don't take it, it could be in a month, it could be in six months or a year. formally, if in the linear logic of what it is in russia, there is an economic margin of safety if this situation develops linearly, but linear processes do not correspond to the nature of internal processes in the russian federation, so to say when we find this point of fragility on which we will press or the russians themselves will squeeze and it will fall, well, you are guessing on coffee grounds, it can happen again at any moment, it's just that russia does everything itself, putin's

the leadership is doing everything to ensure that this point of super- criticality is reached and russia begins to disintegrate in relation to what is happening on the front, well, it is obvious that they will try to fix the front and put forward another ultimatum, now it will be for the period from october 30 to october 4, i.e. from today to october 4, they will remove ultimatums that they have annexed territories to the russian federation, now they will announce some procedures for the entry of the constitutional court's examination, that is, there is some slack until the 10th, they will put forward an ultimatum for bargaining great, when will they try to negotiate and then they will try to sell this new geopolitical reality that exists in the head of one putin to the whole world as something that should be agreed with or with which it is necessary to work with this under the g20, in fact, as we continued the offensive, we will continue and

the signs are the environment of the lymani army therefore, i will say the statement a-a the threat of using nuclear weapons ukrainians have long since lost the existential horror of the possible use of nuclear weapons against ukraine tactically give weapons and this will not lead to putin's desired result in the form of our complete surrender or in some way the surrender of the west to the putin regime, this will not happen, i think that now they are already beginning to realize this from here, what olya said about the change in the rhetoric of the main propagandists - this is from this opera, that is, they understand that there is no point in an empty blow because it will lead to even worse consequences. is there now the last joker, the last joker who was supposedly in the hands of putin, it will not work simply and this and this and this is already a certain awareness, so i think that the question is where exactly the stagnation of russia and then either

the cascade collapse or the transformation into a black hole of the russian federation and we are already getting the russian federation, what will happen after russia, even after russia, it was worth talking about something else, let's get together, because now we literally have a minute, i want you in just two minutes or half a minute , he managed to tell me, look, something like this has appeared in russia. it is very popular to say that it is like the caribbean crisis. we will now go to the limit and then we will go . the possibility of striking estonia suddenly well, to raise the stakes, here's how you feel about it, literally 30 seconds, i understand very little, the possibility of a tactical nuclear weapon mission and strike exists and they should be rejected, and he says that this is propaganda or a russian informational psychological operation, no such possibility exists raising rates is also one of the options for putin. but again, hitting estonia means a war in nato, then even a war with the alliance and with the majority of its members

, that is, you understand that the war will be with the majority of its participants and this option is also given even if there is a veto from hungary, that is, nato as a country as participants will fight and putin should understand this. i think he understands this and in development he is being answered about this in ukraine. a bet is possible, but it is not stopped, our armed forces are not our command, not the leadership, there will be no capitulation, there will be no acceptance of bets, only driving putin to a dead end, from which there is no way out, whatever experience we have. thank you, it was vitaly kulyk and oleksiy holobutsky, and our the next meeting will be on the espresso channel on tuesday at 11:40 a.m. i repeat once again tuesday at 11:40 a.m. and we will continue to do so on tuesdays and thursdays at 11:40 a.m. and on fridays at 1:00 p.m. so what are you watching on the espresso channel and let's meet