the church will come and the society will give you a massage. yes, yes, yes, but on the way, volodymyr, it is true that putin thinks in such categories because he is a fool, yes, i think beyond kyiv education, and really, believe me , mykola. as far as i know this person, he does not understand anything in economics. just meets a raid people say here minimize uh yes and we will minimize our dialogue with you today dear friends thank you for being with us mykola vereda vitaly portnikov remember all our time now the 21st 23 to 20 23 thank you for everything

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ivano-frankivsk on the youtube channel espresso, the start of the pre-match studio at 3:30 p.m. match on the 16th. congratulations. today, the russian federation will show kneeling all day long. but the propagandists are still openly telling who this show is intended for and how strange it is that it is intended not even only to show the show we have grown territories there, we have acquired something in order to negotiate, as it turns out, look, in some perspective, we will have to negotiate with ukraine from the west, and the obosnogo barrier that will be presented not only for the west, but also for some representatives of the russian east this

is what they are talking about. that's right, for negotiations with concessions. you are here and now this question is closed. you want to talk about the future . you will talk from this point of view . on russian television lately, there is just a lot of it, they talk about it almost constantly in different contexts. and now there will be two such fragments, which, let's say, are a little different. and well, in principle, i would say yes, well, this is actually somewhat fake , such conversations but nevertheless, it is worth knowing that they want this, they are under this. correctly, see quite recently there was a conversation about what in cases of return to ukraine they are on captives the transit of our ammonia through the ukrainian territory is resumed. this was a proposal in kiev. i just want to understand that this is just a humanitarian exchange

, or is it something that is part of the framework of a large- scale exchange of prisoners of war that is supposed to take place in october, and there is almost a formula for everyone, after that, it should happen. victor 's exchange is for someone. who we have there, i don't know, for this woman, a basketball player, who is involved in drugs, and ben salman, here and there, and here the story is also explained by the fact that eh, here, here a big deal, including a responsibility from the west, will unfreeze some of our financial assets. they help, it's one thing, the other is the edge - that's it, now you'll hear such fantasies in general, you know, uh, they're not completely clear to us, but nevertheless they

are circulating now in the russian informant, look, they probably drew attention. yesterday evening it was many comments on the fact that the pawn allegedly called gerasimo, there are no messages confirming this, there is no information previously, at the same time, the same pawn in the time magazine praised gerasimov and called him his teacher. is there a feeling at the front that some kind of agreements are being made somewhere? there are no separate agreements being made between our supreme command and the ukrainians. the command is not conducted today, there is no place for it, and there will be no place for it in the third. well, i will explain this story to you, yes, it is absolutely normal, such false

statements . zaluzhnyy is trying to pursue some kind of political career . in fact, all these conversations are primarily calculated on the reaction of the president's office there, nothing particularly works out in them, they even admit it themselves, ah, let's say that the only negotiations who can enter into a meeting with the russian military command, this is about the unconditional surrender of their troops who are now on the territory of ukraine, simply surrendering from captivity or going back to russia, eh. well , i say that even the propagandists themselves understand the perspective of these conversations, look, don’t get carried away and the next geological fantasy , the first election, the us congress will not change anything, the second, europe will survive the winter, it will definitely survive, the

third, there are no conflicts of zelensky ’s hostage. эти вещи отвлекаются надеются make some plans completely without and it's really so eh well, meanwhile , eh, mobilization is going on in russia and there are already the last ones. it was forced - putin himself was forced to come out and order to stop conducting a bad mobilization, and instead we are raising mobilization, and in general, this is all that has arisen around this, e-e prompted, for example , e-e, margarita semenyan, e-e, finally, to examine the third way for russia, see when i wrote that i see only two options or our silent victory or nuclear war and what i somehow can’t unload the third one. it was before the announcement of partial mobilization. now

it ’s the third. - this took place, including the monstrous civil war at the beginning of the 20th century and, well, the civil war in different er regions of the republics of our former motherland of the soviet union already during my lifetime. in fact, the samonians gave advice on how to behave in the event of mobilization, and i think that this is exactly what should be shown to the russians so that they think, let's have a very partial, very pointy mobilization , which i remember very well. it was a mobilization in the late 80s, specifically in the city of krasnodar, when they arrived at night and gathered of these very uh those who are in the reserve, the workers who are already sowing seeds and other jobs, the reservists are completely completely different life.

karabakh to a war that is completely incomprehensible to them, and what started, you know what started in the morning pogroms began pogroms began for three days the pogrom continued until they did not return everyone so who are you probably in open sources they will not find anything about this, and indeed you cannot find such a thing in russian but since it happens it can happen again well, in general, about what can happen and what ca n't happen, let's talk now with vitaly kulak , this is a political scientist, the director of the center for the study of civil society problems, oleksiy holobutskyi to political technologists as the deputy director of the situation modeling agency. i congratulate you. actually , my question is probably to start with oleksiy. anyway , why is there such a reaction of the russians to the mobilization ? they are so fierce, they are personally exiled there by budanov or something. well, let

's go anyway, eh, to be 16 subjective, you need to understand what numbers, what numbers are in question, we don't know, because it's spoalized, after all there are people who are evasive about it, what percentage ran in, we don't know, the numbers are different, they understand what we are delighted with. in general, this is absolutely logical, so putin 22 years ago, russian society, he destroyed civil society, but did not create an effective maximally effective totalitarian totalitarian state of the stalinist type, which could organize for a few days with minimal losses and

controlling the entire population and now we have what is she talking about yes she is trying to appeal to civil society so that civil society is on such a patriotic rise and supported this mobilization war and so on and there is no civil society just like that it was liquidated therefore, from a formal point of view, she is right, there are simply no more mechanisms. so we have a civil society in ukraine, which is, roughly speaking, where it is recorded in military enlistment offices and where they do not go to the front, there is the rise of the giant movement and so on, yes, with some elements of state coercion, of course, not without it, the ban on leaving there and so on, but the martial law understood, but this is there, and in russia there is only state coercion, because that’s all the rest was constantly muted, even these hurrah patriots, but you

showed khodakovsky there, who talked about zulazhny and about, but read what about konopolska , it has shooters, everything patriotic, that is. well, how to say community or something like crap - that's the best word they call him so it's a a and they were kept by the government all the time in such a detachment, so the nationalists were killed, thrown out of vika even recently, last year. on the other hand, there is simply no one except for these military personnel who simply work for a salary and the state apparatus that does not know what to do with all these statements which are the last ones. i watched russian television and telegram channels .

they don't have a specific attitude of what to say and what to do at the moment, and roughly speaking, it really looks like there is a war party and a peace party under such and such conditions, and they compete with each other practically, and that's why such a success rate is why there are nightly decrees about already independence to the kherson zaporozhye oblasts yes, not about accession but about independence yes, that is, there is such a struggle somewhere, and putin is here. so where did he go for a few days? yes, he, as usual, when a critical situation goes somewhere to rest, and yesterday it was on the board the investigation is interesting, well, it's just that much, i ca n't look carefully at russian events, but they did research there that all these days they stupidly showed canned food and what kind of meeting was this, by the way , what was it about, and with lukashenko, be lukashenko - it was also canned, that is, they already, that is putin is in a situation, he simply does not know which

side to take any option for him, the loss is worth uh, uh, uh, raise the stakes in general, so it is not known whether it will end, go now, give it back, so to speak you won't understand the environment, well, there is a certain environment that demands a war there until the victorious end. this is the situation. look. well, actually, the question is, what internal processes can still take place in the russian federation, and with this announcement of accession, there are some lands and this mobilization, er, and all these others, because, of course, the russian propaganda itself has suffered, well, how can i say, that mobilization has already been announced, it happens the way it happens when they run there, god knows where, when i have to run there, and it is not a little bit personal, all the nightingales there and and and simonyan to find out who and how

where they are mobilizing our propaganda in general , that is, well, it is clearly such a loss. but nevertheless, what can happen and what cannot happen in russian society further how can these processes take place, all of which have been launched with all these attempts to mobilize, as if society, well , first of all, it is worth looking at how the ratings of information pro-kladist programs are falling, they were talking about this even before the mobilization, the ratings dropped many times viewings, that is, there is trust in seven propagandas , respectively, and they will not believe that there, e.e., they transferred with the general mobilization, totally in some kind of scandal, they punished the military commissars who did something wrong, e.e., despite all the efforts of propaganda , they do not believe in propaganda, this time already secondly, people are actually resisting with their feet, or the saboteurs of the mobilization are fleeing. there are many boots that are being created,

groups of targets are being created to take care of people of draft age from the agglomeration somewhere in the taiga and generally flee away from populated areas. this is also the system of legal legal e-e conditional legal protection and assistance with the prize, how to untangle it correctly, this is um mass videos of how people break their limbs so as not to fall under the slit , that is, in the general population. that is, we can say that if you did not believe in propaganda before and er, there were those who called for passive resistance, there was a small percentage of people with critical remnants of critical thinking, but such people who are not capable of any active jet sports, now this percentage did not believe in their own propaganda, did not trust of power, about which propaganda is spreading this is becoming more and more. of course, this does not mean that it is the number of

changes in quality that is why i am very careful here and regarding the forecasts regarding the civil conflict in the russian federation, but the fact that the elements of this are already being created and the basis for the possible emergence of civil confrontation i also see it there. but in order for standing citizenship to arise, it is necessary to have citizens, and in russia there are problems with this here , and i agree with the involvement of civil society in russia has not been created in them there is no basic basic they don't have the instinct of self-organization, and the fact that there is a lot of it in ukraine, it is completely absent in russia, and the basic instinct of self-organization is absent, it is present only in a small part of the criminal element . the criminal community quickly organized itself and now it is shearing like sheep russians

who are fleeing to georgia, or there is a certain history, gray schemes, how to make even petlandia from sub- prizes, this really exists, but to create self-organization for a protest in order to go out on the street and to block the possibility of mobilization to prevent the same pogroms that semenia is talking about, and she should know because she returned to being an armenian with such gifts in the 80s. putin's self-organization was destroyed, therefore, at the moment of the point of view, everything will go into a pogrom, not into a self -organized civil protest, but into a riot, a riot and a funeral with a capital letter, senseless and ruthless. when will the authorities first take the military committees and then he will make a neighbor because the best one lives . and in fact, this will also be the end of russia as a state , and state functions will gradually die out, and

russia will turn into such a big black hole , and informational impulses about help or about some other demands, ultimatums, will arrive with great delay from this black hole, because there are laws of physics, so when time either accelerates or is ordered, and therefore no one and nothing will already help, and in moscow, which will remain only within the framework of kad, some kind of central government for the russian of the former russian federation after what will remain after russia and the fact that the fabric of society is being destroyed and we are now seeing it through this mobilization. it is obviously not the ability to organize that will deepen this destruction of the fabric of society, the roots of society will be violated and, accordingly, there will be atomization first as subjects and then as individuals clars, then corporations enter certain small territories where they are present, and then it will simply be the destruction of society itself, the disappearance of the identity of russians

, let's then howl well, i want to hear from you what are your thoughts on how quickly it can happen, how it can happen, how it can affect the hostilities, just try to tell me about these three aspects, because one well, it is clear that the russian authorities are trying to somehow delay it, even there uh, there were some statements that it is not possible there, uh, for example, national eyes , all uh, republics, it is not possible to row so much from there, let's somehow level the call so that it is in the central regions, so that it is not provoked - not to be provoked in these national what kind of riots are there in the republics? the authorities, in general , have started to give one live ram to each family of each mobilized person, well, it’s very interesting , it’s called instead of the mayor for a dead ram, we ’ll give you a live one, such an interesting size and a smaller one, i’m interested in

your opinion, how realistic is it, well, closer to the perspective, how will it be to happen, literally, well, i understand that, well, this is a decision, how to say, i don't know, well, let's try, nevertheless, let 's start with you, oleksia, in 2-3 weeks kherson as our well-known analysts say, experts would say you understand, these are processes that cannot be predicted, moreover, the situation and i, by education, study history and constantly read about what happened in russia, the russian empire 100 years ago, and this is a constant conversation about the pro-russian rebellion, the demographic situation is completely different, a completely different situation. yes, a very huge number older people, older people, just an older society, yes, it cannot be compared with

iran, for example, or with many other countries where certain events are taking place now, at least yes, but there are none so huge, that is, practically the peasantry, in principle, as a class does not exist in russia, and people have become more mobile because of this , if the peasants 100 years ago knew why they cut off the landowners, cadets, officers, and so on, it is more understandable. yes, they wanted to get their land back, but there is nowhere to the people, they have become more mobile, riots have now been like this for the last 10-20 years in such authoritarian countries, somewhere i will read like you, desegregation, yes, when, supposedly, the whole people are against, but the government still remains in power, the borders were not closed, because they were created parallel structures and, roughly speaking, there are many mechanisms to gain power even when the population is opposed to the topic russia is a more complicated country in

that and our hope is that it is made of many pieces, so to speak, national geographical that are not inherent at all well, that is, roughly speaking, here to die and go to die for the russian idea or the russian world, but many people in russia simply do not have any sense, because they, in this russian measure, will have to play the role of the back. according to the idea, in principle, yes, logically, that’s just there, well, a muslim ours are going to die for russia and the russian idea, so it can explode anywhere and anytime ah-ah-ah the government is russian well, what if it is the only thing that can be said is that if it starts to fall apart, it will happen very quickly, very quickly, because it was conducted through, i repeat a huge country will not be enough. there is simply not

enough repressive apparatus for everyone, and there are too many different interests, that is what kadyrov did and is now doing and suggested to others, namely to mobilize, and why, in principle , at the moment, the central government intercepted these mobilization, but the movement was understood in principle like this. everyone understands already, more or less , including the national elites. yes, that this is already the final, so to speak , the final route will end in a year, in two, in three, but it is already clear that it will end somewhere and time x must to have opportunities for the economy for soldiers, roughly speaking, in order to and when this empire falls apart, to have time to seize some piece of territory and resources and then do what was done in principle, the entire communist party elite, including in ukraine, when they were developing the soviet union, of course. because there is a

huge state sector, it will be possible to prevent any riots there at all until the moment they are able to pay money to state employees, that is, you can say that until the moment when the state starts, you understand. i'll repeat myself, yes, i'm probably wrong, but simonyan says the right things in principle, just in the wrong conditions, and already when trust is completely lost. with the help of money from administrative resources and in general. in principle, it cannot solve this. the coronavirus has shown that the state system of the russian state system is not functional. it can not

when there are some serious challenges. what does society write, and secondly, that it can demand something from the state, then that's all and that's it, thank you vitaliy, eh, look, eh , what are your predictions for time, and most importantly, how in general, these processes will now affect the military actions, everything that is happening in our country. well, in my opinion, this is the scenario of the division of the russian federation. this is really a gradual dying out of the functions of the state , at first they will not be able to pay certain social benefits, then they will not be able to provide security for citizens, then they will not be able to provide that the mobilization itself will then not be able to be provided by logisticians , logistics, transport, etc., and problems would accumulate so much as to tempt local

interest groups to simply seize power on these territories and through private military companies or some power structures, criminality, er, to ensure the protection of this perimeter of these enclaves, some control, it will be disintegration not by federal subjects, it will be disintegration by territories, surrender groups are able to control, and there is a possibility of the emergence of a new independent state of different kaganates there, the chancellery or the troops of the grand order of any or anything else. but there will be a territory not controlled by anyone, the borders will change rapidly, and it will be precisely this territory of chaos with which will have to be dealt with and here the question is industrial monocorrelation about industrial dementalization of the creation of the territory of global management when the light will have to intervene in the situation and as quickly as possible establish control over certain objects of the nuclear industry there nuclear plants or e-e sources of oil and gas or

for example without those global management in the taiga in order to actively take place here, i agree with everything that time has a sign of quantumness and at the moment to say when exactly we let's find this point of super fragility for russia, i 'm not going to take it, it could be in a month, it could be in six months or a year. formally, if you add this to linear logic, russia has an economic margin of safety if this situation develops linearly, but linear processes do not correspond to the nature of internal processes in the russian federation, so to say when we find this point of fragility on which we will press or the russians themselves will squeeze and it will fall, well, among you there is a guess on coffee grounds, it can be again in at any moment, russia is doing everything itself, putin's leadership is doing everything so that this

point of super-criticality is reached and russia will begin to disintegrate in relation to what is happening on the front, well, it is obvious that they will try to fix the front and issue another ultimatum now it will be for the period from october 30 to october 4, that is, from today to october 4, they will issue ultimatums that they have annexed territories to the russian federation, now they will announce some entry procedures, an examination is needed of the constitutional court. that is, there is a gap somewhere until the 10th, they will spoil the mathematics of the period of the big bargain, they will try to bargain , and then they will try to sell this new geopolitical reality that exists in the head of one putin to the whole world as something that should be agreed with or with which it is necessary to work under the g20, in fact, we continued the offensive and will continue to do so, and the signs of the encirclement of the lymani army, therefore, i will say

the statement that threats to use nuclear weapons of ukrainians have long since lost their existential terror from the possible use of nuclear weapons against ukraine, the tactics of these weapons and this will not lead to the desired result of putin in the form of our complete surrender or in any way the surrender of the west to the putin regime, this will not happen, i think that now they are already beginning to realize this from here that olya you talked about the change in the rhetoric of the main propagandists - this is from this opera, that is, they understand that it no longer makes sense to empty one with a blow . well, because it will lead to even worse consequences . it was allegedly in the hands of putin, it simply will not work and this and this and this is already a certain awareness, therefore, i think that the question is where is the obstognation of russia and then either the cascading collapse or the transformation into a

black hole of the russian federation and we already get the russian fed