ivan preobrazhensky joins the broadcast, and a political scientist, an expert on the national issues of central and eastern europe, ivan. hello, i repeat the question again. прихов выучить i think ego is held back by his own fear, because the use of nuclear weapons can lead to a global nuclear conflict. vladimir is admitted, unlike a person who is ready to die. invests billions of dollars in genetic studies to improve life, they are clearly not going to end themselves in such a difficult way in the next few weeks, and the next problem is his relationship with the russian military, which is not up to the

mark. gerasimov is also not the people who are going to use nuclear weapons in the environment of vladimir putin, there are people who believe that it is possible to use it, but they are not. in russia, whatever dictatorial regime it is, it still works formally on at least four keys, in order to use nuclear weapons, not only the decision of the president is necessary, but the confirmation of the minister of defense and the head of the general staff, the economy of this, vladimir putin, and communicates not only with the west. it is called from the east, and today it was very clear, absolutely unambiguous, for example, the statement of the chinese side on the inadmissibility of using nuclear weapons, and i am sure that in the informal the atmosphere at the samoarchante, where she communicated with the leaders of china and india, it was explained to him in a very lucid manner what the consequences would be for him and for russia

if he tried to use nuclear weapons, thereby opening pandora's box and , for example, putting india automatically on the brink of nuclear war e- with pakistan and china on the brink of a nuclear conflict over taiwan, and that is your answer, putin is a suicide to me, so it will not be used for my answer, putin is not a suicide, and secondly he can't have any backs for him now, this is india, china, and even if he honestly believes that it is quite possible that they are waging a war, there is no such thing as the west in order to start a war with the west. we must be sevastopol in the world. here is this criticism from the side of ramzan kadyrov, and to the addresses of the russian military command - is this somehow coordinated with the kremlin, is this from the side

of ramzan akhmatovich, this is a solo act, he does not agree with it, i think that it is agreed, but no with by the kremlin, as such, by inactive allies, ramzan codes in the kremlin or near the kremlin, of course, there is a-a movement directly on the canon of mobilization, and vladimir putin eventually accepted on the side of the russian military a-a who proved to him that uh-uh, they are scary, will not announce mobilization, lose the front, lose of captured territory and so on. than he will announce mobilization and collapse his ratings and create a problem within russia. there is no, and accordingly, you have a leisure castle . advocated that these mobiles collapse in the extreme case, if the mobilization is announced by the security forces themselves , who at least know how to shoot, in contrast to ordinary citizens, and at the same time demonstrated

that chechens can be sent to war only che i now the fundamental moment vladimir putin himself is all the last for years, starting at least with the pandemic , kovida had suggested to regional leaders that they could make some strategic decisions. and now the legion leaders are really starting to make strategic decisions somewhere they are fired by the military commission somewhere. we don't know. nobody knows any indicators. what should be the number of people called up for mobilization? in reality, there is no mobilization. in fact, it is infinite, but not at all partially, but some regions of chechnya have already moved to them with buryaete. dagestan is there, ok already . 11 regions at least declare that they have completed their plan of mobilization and will not send more people to the war . all this indicates that the ramcent when expressing the point of view of a large number of representatives of the russian federation

the top class was preparing to believe that the russian military created a bad situation inside the country and their actions could lead to a mass polo test or something like that, or the second option is regional elites, not only ramzan kadyrov, but others are trying to use the situation in the background of protests raise as much power as possible, in general, these are unclear processes, but they are very similar to what happened in the late soviet union. kharkiv region and here in the estuary, the russian information space has changed to its roots, and now it is absolutely about putin's employees and russian federal channels are beginning to criticize the military leadership of russia. well, they complain there about the lack of transparency regarding military actions and so on. this is an unusual phenomenon for putin's

manifestation, something similar last time was during the second war in chechnya . there is a split in the let's say so russian military class. here is putin and a significant number of people, if not in opposition to him , at least categorically oppose the russian army, criticize it and believe that the russian army is losing this war precisely because of the fact that it is acting wrong here there are no supporters of peace and on the side of coffee, which is higher among themselves, it is important to understand here there are two groups of supporters of war who are in favor of introducing different methods and i would like to ask you one more question in writing. today, the state duma met and unanimously voted there for the

next uh-uh, another uh -uh step was taken to meet the connection of the occupied ukrainian territories. he couldn't answer, er, fully or partially, ah, you generally understand what they annexed and how they will now explain to people that here they seem to have annexed the estuary , and ukrainian forces have already recaptured it on the other hand, how will this happen further ? they are reuniting the territories of the kharkiv region. of course, there is very little left. under the control of the occupying russian troops, but they are still there, and they seem to be beautiful. eh, these are moving to fight with some seriously working connection is not happening, but smart people, many, it is only stated that unanimously the state duma actually voted in

average voting was such that about 40 people did not vote yet, and even more, for each of the four e-e contracts a-a, that is, only 450 people voted in state time and voted 48 to 400 11 well, one mandate was not distributed there 449 , respectively these people did not participate in the voice vote with oblong motions. this is already a very serious indicator. it was exactly the same. will turn away from this vote, this shows that they are also not completely confident in the result of what is happening and prefer not to click on this

button . they do not understand that they are reuniting and it is not important, this is clearly a perfect gesture of the electorate, and the main thing in everything that is happening is this. it seems to me that vladimir putin's statement that he is ready to negotiate, he raised the stakes to the maximum, as he is used to doing, he cannot stop now, but in reality he wants to freeze the military conflict now, go to long negotiations, this was in 2014, then gradually prepare for a new attack and start a new offensive, well, let's say in winter , when the situation in it will be more difficult for ukraine because of the destroyed infrastructure, or in the spring, it can be even more difficult to get a free hand.

fell asleep to our broadcast ivan preobrazhensky candidate of political sciences expert on issues of central and eastern europe was on radio liberty well, during the signing of the so-called treaties on the annexation of the occupied regions of ukraine to russia in the kremlin hall three priests of the ukrainian orthodox church of the moscow patriarchate were noticed, one of them is the metropolitan luhansk alchevsk panteleimon, and two of the so-called newly occupied territories are archimandre and lecturer fedorov, the abbot of the assumption cathedral cathedral in kherson and abbot of the melitopol sviatoslav monastery, archimandrite ioan prokopenko , the official reaction on this matter to anna from the ukrainian orthodox church of the moscow patriarchate and in it, anna from the ukrainian high-ranking officials did not know why and whether ukraine plans to limit the influence of the ukrainian orthodox church of the moscow patriarchate or the priest at the state level as we can see, they openly support the regime of vladimir putin, my colleague sofia sereda asked the minister of culture oleksandr tkachenko about this

listen in the kremlin, when they announced the so -called annexation of the ukrainian territories, there was the presence of clerics from the uoc of the moscow patriarchate, what can you say about this, or will there be any possible official reaction of the ministry of culture to the presence of these people during such events, er, relevant requests regarding behavior certain hierarchs of the uoc, we constantly ask the own leadership of this organization of this church, e.e. law enforcement agencies should respond to collaborators if they are such. i would very much like several such cases which exist were brought to court because it is important to have society answer the question of what certain hierarchs are doing, for example, the uoc, not only in the kremlin, but what actions they are taking in the occupied territories, that is, in general, about a scenario such as , for example, the ban on russian pro-russian tv channels or about russian parties regarding the

church of the moscow patriarchate cannot prevent religious peace in ukraine and ethnic peace during the war is an extremely important point because if the russians want to stick somewhere so to speak, to muddy the situation, this is exactly where religious or ethnic relations are, and here we need to maintain the level of dialogue that existed before the war and understand that a correct, civilized, transparent attitude towards certain religious associations of ethnic minorities must be maintained because our strength in our diversity, diversity is achieved through civilized dialogue and cooperation in actions, for example, in countering not only russian disinformation, in order to win this war with joint efforts, that is, the ministry of culture not a ban. and for the dialogue with the representatives of this

church, i understood you correctly, and for the active activity of law enforcement agencies in this area, the full version of the interview with oleksandr tkachenko will soon be available on the radio freedom channel on youtube in ukraine security guarantees are needed even before it will join nato, this was announced by the deputy head of the office of the president of ukraine, ihor zhovkva. according to him, this is necessary in order to quickly deal with russia's aggression, at the same time, president zelenskyi's office believes that ukraine can really pass the path to membership in nato in an accelerated mode zhovkva refers to the case of sweden and finland, which are currently working on joining the alliance without a plan of action for membership . nine presidents of the countries of central and eastern

europe supported ukraine's membership in nato, but in the statement they did not refer to the application for joining nato as ukraine submitted on september 30. at the same time in bucharest in 2008, how ukraine's request was responded to at the nato headquarters and not only there, the correspondent of radio liberty in brussels, zoryana stepanenko zoryana, lived by the reactions. my greetings, we are waiting for details from you. the actual appeal , signed by the political leadership of ukraine , will arrive at the headquarters of the nato apartment in the near future . the ukrainian vice-prime minister for european integration spoke about it, she is currently in brussels for negotiations with the european commission, as we know from our own sources. well, does her route pass through the headquarters today the alliance is not aware of the fact that ms. stefanishyna's office did not provide any details, i mean these details. and in her press service, we were told that due to a busy, tight schedule, there is no time for comments in the office of the ukrainian president,

only earlier it was reported that the consultation on the accession of ukraine begins and today, the kremlin responded to ukraine's desire to become part of the most powerful military alliance, and actually repeated its argument that ukraine's supposed euro-atlantic aspirations were one of the reasons of the russian war, which putin calls a special military operation, as you remember, and said that they are closely monitoring the reaction of the allies, all 30 of them have to tell ukraine to join nato, and nine of them have confirmed in writing their intentions to support ukraine on this path, these leaders poland and the czech republic, the baltic states, north macedonia, montenegro, romania, slovakia . well, what exactly did you refer to ? a symbolic declaration of intentions, so to speak, since it is legally binding, it is not enough that the alliance actually knows about ukraine's desire to join, in the joint statement that

we have already mentioned, these 9 leaders of the allies also called on them to significantly increase military aid to ukraine, which is currently opposing to the russian invasion, the lithuanian minister of defense, the delphi edition carries out his words, believes that the procedure for ukraine's accession to the alliance should begin now, despite the war. it was because of it that he added the countries of the west can no longer remain in the positions they were in before and noted that security guarantees for ukraine should be increased already now the tenth country that has supported ukraine's aspirations is canada, but so far only on her words by the lips of the minister of foreign affairs meleni zholi who was just giving a press conference when it became it is known about the application signed in kyiv. well, is the canadian prime minister justin to do in solidarity with his subordinate? the military support of ukraine is more relevant now, and the process in brussels should be dealt with at another time for

washington, the publication wrote a politician referring to informed sources, the ukrainian application came as a surprise. well, the new york times communists wrote that through the doctrine of mutual defense, the principle of one for all and all for one on which nato is actually based on it, it is unlikely that a country in a state of war will join the alliance now. they also remind us of the past skepticism of germany and france regarding ukraine's membership, and we have something to do with it. i think zoryana said the most important things. zoryana stepanenko was with us live from brussels. well, in ukraine, meanwhile, the support for joining nato is the highest in the history of observations. these are the results of the group's poll, the rating in the referendum. if such a referendum were held, right now, the initiative for ukraine's accession to nato would be supported. 83% of citizens and only 4% are against radio liberty does not conduct sociological research, but we also asked the residents of the capital whether they are for or against ukraine in nato, i am an

expert, but probably we will not join now we have clearly stated our desire and, in principle, it seems that the barriers are less now than, for example, in march, that is, in principle, there are reasons not to take us less, or you yourself can fight for yourself there, where in fact we are already there. we have already gone through all this, you know how to live in a civil marriage and then go, just sign it and get this legally done. that's why i think it's good. are we neighbors? i don't have anything. it's just a war. yes, but if there is a territory that is in conflict between which i am in question, that is, they are in conflict , then nato does not take such countries, and it didn't happen yesterday, it was always like that. that's why we were recruited into nato before, that's why i don't know if they make an exception, it will be cool. i don't know very deeply what the nato statute is and what the procedure for joining nato is. but i think it's realistic i think that in the future we can be neither

in nato nor in the european union, we can be a free , independent country that is developing, that is strong and that can also dictate. and as a great subject, i welcome you to our crimea, just like that, regardless of any organization of associations there, and it was great news, we even celebrated it a little because of how ukraine showed itself at the front and was a determining factor in how our western partners will behave myself in the future, relations with ukraine and nato membership, there is definitely nothing bad, but we are probably not experiencing any great joy now, the question is victory in this war and in which block we will be or not, it is not important, i guess well, we understand that nato is ours anyway allies that we are in a bloc or not. there are certain nuances there

because nato is a collective body and there you need the consent of all 30 participants there , a certain work will be done with each one and i am sure that this work is already being done on the diplomatic front. well, they are not advertised i think that it will be normal in about six months, i can't say how quickly it will happen, but it will happen. nato has accepted us. it's a very good idea. it 's just a matter of whether nato's entry is relevant for us in the sense that our army becomes much stronger than nato's. nato's entry allows us to ago that if any hostilities continue on the part of russia, nato will have to come to our aid, the question of when we will be accepted is a completely different one, because because i said earlier that it would be over the course of 20 years, the accelerated one should supposedly be faster. well , everything is on the line paper, this should have been done a long time ago. it's good that some steps have been taken now, but it is necessary

to take them. and sometimes it seems to me that what step has not been taken , it all makes no sense, but something will shoot out, i noticed that ordinary ordinary people are quite informed about nato kyivans well, how realistic is the scenario of ukraine's rapid accession to nato? what signal is kyiv giving to its western partners and the kremlin? after submitting an application for membership, let's talk further. contact us, political scientist volodymyr fe. good evening. good evening . in the case of sweden and finland, which are now moving into nato without implementing the action plan regarding membership, they say that ukraine will be able to do so, and how realistic is that? what do you think ? the procedures for the implementation of the action plan for membership in nato, well, this is a transition, a transition period that usually needs to be implemented by those countries that want to become members of the north atlantic alliance. therefore, this is a precedent that can be used, but the main

factor was just mentioned by the people you interviewed, but i heard it a little survey i am also really surprised that people are sufficiently informed. and it is the military successes of ukraine that now the ukrainian army has a huge authority not only in europe, but in the whole world. i think that this will be decisive factors. but after the war, some of the interviewees noted that i can only agree that while the war is going on, taking into account the principle of consensus when membership is acquired, there will be certain, let's say, obstacles, there will be certain fears on the part of individual countries that do not want to lead to a conflict with russia, but the end of the war in the event of our victory. and for what there are now big enough chances, it will give us the green light, thanks to the

authority of our army, and today it is an impulse, but the main thing is to start the process, as it was with an application for applying to the european union well, you know , e.e., experts who also know about this say that in the case, for example, if we are talking about an e.e. application for membership in the european union, an application was required, and here they say that in fact it is such a purely formal step that could be dispensed with and without it, but i wanted to ask you how you would explain such a somewhat lukewarm reaction, and jen stoltenberg, after volodymyr zelenskyi's application, came out and said that the doors of nato, the doors of nato are open to all democracies, well, we probably leave turkey and hungary in parentheses but nevertheless, this is such a denial that they have been working for many years. the white house also said yes. yes, but help is still a top priority. why was it received so coldly? because it was a surprise for them, or are there other reasons for the surprise, and

i don’t think so. i draw attention to the fact that it is very easy to check that the day before and two days before this statement , there were telephone conversations between president zelenskyi and individual leaders of various western countries, and i think that this issue was probed, if not by the president himself, then by the ministry of foreign affairs of ukraine, and i am absolutely sure well, the president's office in the ministry of foreign affairs perfectly understood that there would be no public consent to this statement. i drew attention to something else here, it's already a special feature of president zelensky, which he uses not for the first time. he often demands more, which is not given to us immediately. after a certain time they can let's say so agree and first they give us what we need. now we demand membership to speed up the procedure but in fact the question is to start faster and get public official from

e-e let's say confirmation about the guarantee security for ukraine plus the supply of weapons, i think that this is the point of gradually preparing our partners psychologically for the fact that we will insist on membership. and you know, i have also had the opportunity to hear such an opinion that for volodymyr zelenskyi this was also such a step e- it is dangerous and political, despite the fact that it is aimed at the internal audience, and they say that it is necessary to make such a loud request to go down in history in this way. a political scientist and not a political technologist, these are such internal disagreements in the professional workshop, er, everyone calls it well, and a political consultant. yes, but er, they do not define themselves as political technologies, so i think that there was another motive here. well, everyone

understands this because the statement it was made immediately after the meeting of the council and after the annexation of four occupied ukrainian regions partially occupied by russia, this was our political response, that's what it was. this was definitely such a motive for the internal audience so many times already statements that we want to join nato, yes , it also happened that in the end it was successful with the candidate in the eu, i think it also worked, i do not rule out that the motive, you know, will remain in history in this way but yes, he present, but it is better to stay when you are accepted into nato. you will definitely stay. and the very fact of issuing the application. well, yushchenko wanted to apply for a post-graduate degree. they refused. well, we are mentioning this, but with regret, i think that

the main audience was not the internal audience for russia and uh-e west ot ot and by the way, what do you think in the kremlin are monitoring this process, because i will remind you that the first condition of the kremlin was not to expand nato, well, actually, they used this reason to start the invasion, uh, they are monitoring this process, have they already waved their hand at finland, well, do what you want, no, no, immediately there were statements from medvedev, which former president of russia, in whom the spirit of zhirinovsky resided, he immediately began to frighten us again that this is the path to nuclear war, some other russian officials also said that this effectively ends all opportunities for peaceful settlement, although, in fact, it is precisely the annexation of the occupied regions that destroys the possibilities for a peaceful settlement, so in russia

they are definitely watching it, they paid attention to it, but i think ours also deliberately did it on that very day , because yes, in istanbul in it was discussed in march, and then it was such a step towards a compromise on our part. moreover, at that time, let 's say especially, there was no help from nato. on the contrary, now that we are gradually recapturing, well , liberating our territories occupied by russia , plus we had to respond so loudly to the propaganda action in moscow, we decided that we could do it in this way, it would really be loud, this is an informational excuse, which the application for membership in nato has been under discussion for several days. i just want to clarify, agree, because the kremlin is also watching how nato countries will behave

if they refuse, well, that's it. will make such an application that we are ready to participate in the war, although participating in the war is one thing and helping is another, but the situation that has developed is not clear to some russian commentators. nato, brother, will not be, well, it is supposed to be so. yes, there are traditionally, let’s say yes, traditional obstacles , restrictions that work in the process of gaining membership in nato, but in the european union. the same thing. yes, but they still went to grant candidate status for e. in fact suteretic putin, if you look at his speech during the annexation than the decision on annexation, he actually spoke about the language of war with the west, in particular, and with nato, he is already fighting this rhetorically, and i

think here we also tried to use this to emphasize even more what should be done? putin is already waging an electric war with them, and nato needs to help ukraine now. thank you very much. volodymyr fesenko, a political scientist, emphasizes. subscribe to the pages of radio svoboda on the internet , join the community with a ukrainian view of the world, become a sponsor of the espresso youtube channel, and this is access to exclusive content - personal thanks , pinned comments, special icons and the possibility of personal communication with the espresso team, click sponsor and become part of the community with a ukrainian view