he blamed them for all the failures in ukraine, then prigozhin supported kadyrov. in this way, they went, well, you can say, contrary to the general position of the kremlin. how can you comment on this? i would call it a fight between frogs and vipers. indeed, the russian government in российский elite, the russian establishment is not prayerful. there are various groups, various spheres of influence, and in this sense, someone must become a scapegoat for the failures that follow the russian army in the war against ukraine, and in this case, the snipers here are groups of disaffected on wednesday from temlishmont, speaking heads, and such as kadyrov and prigozhin, this indicates that everything is not calm in the russian state and, apparently, the raskol elite, eh, in this sense, unity will be strengthened for them, it was possible only in the case of

a positive the development of events only in the event of an escape. and when one defeat follows another. well, it is necessary to get the last one on the dna. these are the things you call them simply talking heads who simply said and that's all. is it the end of any development? it can be no, definitely behind them, for each of them, there are certain groups of them and influence, this applies to the security forces, this also applies to certain resources, including financial, therefore, apparently, putin's entourage is no longer like that, raduzhna is not yes, everything is stable as it was a while ago, look, let's go back to the mobilization. what is the mobilization in russia now? what is the mobilization? in in russian circles about mobilization, does

putin need it now, given all the defeats he is currently suffering in ukraine, well, here is painting, articulation, general mobilization, it sounds quite frightening to people, but it seems that there might be a draft, but it’s not. no, but there is absolutely nothing that prevents the authorities from carrying out under the guise of partial mobilization, which can be as close as possible to the full one, as we know in putin's decree, one point is completely classified, there can be written all that is written at will figures, therefore, in this sense, some maneuver remains with the kremlin in order to determine the number of mobilized persons and the timing of this mobilization, see for the announcement of general mobilization. as far as i understand, i am a layman in this matter but it would be necessary to declare war against ukraine, because otherwise

otherwise, what kind of general mobilization does not say anything in these higher political circles , and it is precisely about the declaration of war that the special operation continues so that the russian people do not worry? well we have heard that they want to change the name from a special operation to a counter -terrorist operation. the word war is the kremlin. because there is a war, even about the kremlin’s barks, they often call what is happening a war, even though it was a few months ago that people publicly voiced this word. it just saddens me. i especially like it when lukashenko comments on the events in ukraine and how he says that we are always with russia, we support russia, we love russia, and the belarusian people do not want

what is happening in belarus to happen in belarus, and there is a real war, but he always says war, i know, but he is a friend of putin, mr. mykola. please tell me that in ukraine very often and i think that even too often you can hear information about what, oh my god, and how everything is bad in russia and russia is running out of things in russia and things are running out in russia, resources are running out almost to zero, russia will not be able to continue waging war from day to day, you are a person who knows everything that is happening in russia. please tell me how many resources russia has and how much it is capable of continuing this deadly war in ukraine . unfortunately, there are not many resources, including military ones. just the other day, there was a scandal in the far east, it turned out that one and a half million sets of military uniforms disappeared from warehouses, and

no one knows where these mobilized people went, what to wear, but despite the fact that division, despite the corruption , even if the reserves are large enough, they relax here and hope that everything will end. it is probably not worth the extra money, but it is not worth it. the guests will need them with one line of three on five, they will send a-and mobilizers to kill them, therefore, in this sense, we hope that tomorrow they will run out of shells and guns . number of combat operations. and this information about the fact that the military plant in russia began to work in almost three shifts, it can correspond to the reality. yes, of course, during apparently the kremlin is planning to introduce a partial

military position that in in particular, it will affect the defense order, the mode of operation of various enterprises, the military orientation, and in this sense , all resources will be thrown into the war . operation in ukraine it corresponds to the reality, it can really be so, that is, about the fact that he does not even trust his immediate environment, he himself gives orders. i think that in some decisions , he can definitely take the other question himself. it will be done absolutely not publicly because that he in ukraine is afraid of failure, and they will be personally associated with him, that is why it will be announced in the public space that defeat is the result of the incompetence

of the military scout command, and there is some information about that what is the situation with the minister of defense now, that is, what is the function of the minister of defense serhiy shoigu and the chief of the general staff serhii gerasimov, because before, well, a few months ago, at the beginning of the so-called military operation, they were often shown on television, then they disappeared altogether, and now there is almost no mention of them of information in general to read on the internet, well, the point is that they still exist , that is, putin has not eliminated them yet, and i think that they are just being held to the role of text writers by the famous er , kozlov, from the teaching if everything goes wrong and how is it necessary to put all the blame for the defeat on them, and in this sense, for putin, they are the prices . what are the canned goods that can be opened and used at the right moment? what can make putin despair

? - that moral and ethical for putin personally do not take into account that all such things are in his hands quite large military power if we are talking about nuclear weapons. i am afraid that any decisions can be expected from him, including the people themselves, that is, he can circumstances in a certain situations, you still have to press the button that we call red, they say that it is not red, well, you know, until february 24, everyone hoped that putin has some remnants of his voice together сейчас после того что мы видели после бучи после raisin after mariupol well, what can be said about this a-a absolutely immoral absolutely inhuman

e-e image of the person who e-e to achieve their own personal mercantile a-a the whole a-a will go to all the agreements in your opinion as it is possible to prevent this as an event can prevent or prevent the west has these means of putting pressure on putin so that putin , as an immoral person, does not press this button. i think that the request closely follows the events that are taking place. they did it before the invasion and after that, which apparently they did not represent. agents they have and in the russian leadership are sitting somewhere, so i think that if in principle the kremlin decides to organize an apocalypse, ask for it will be able to prevent a-a in an asymmetrical way, that is, the west is not interested in a global nuclear

war, and in the west, there is an opportunity to avoid it in the whole world. mykola, i asked you this question, how do i put it now ? i inserted several programs into it. it's just interesting to hear your answer to him now in view of the situation that has developed now in view of those defeats of russia in ukraine in view of the mobilization from which russians are fleeing so en masse please tell me what in russia right now, at the moment, it should happen that the russians say enough is enough and demolish putin . nothing, and the russians will change this system from the inside. i couldn’t do it anyway. why, yes, because you said the same thing as a few weeks ago . about the repressive apparatus, this is the special services, this is the fsb, this is the police, this is the guard, it increases funding for them, and this has already been

discussed in the state duma for the coming time . including in dagestan, as we saw, they were quickly extinguished, and in this sense , the russian authorities have more than enough resources to suppress any speech within the country, so they hope that the russians will be able to handle this situation from within, including through the uprising, for example fix no for two possible options, the first is the collapse of this structure inside or how it happened, for example, with the late soviet union, and the second yes - it is an invasive intervention, well, it was interesting to hear your opinion because i still thought that this situation, which is now made up of changes that have taken place now, that it is possible that they have somehow influenced the course

of events in russia, unfortunately, no, mykola, and the last question for you today is provocative, i understand the question as to of a citizen of russia. please tell me that russia after putin is territorially the same russia as it is now or not. of course not. the empire is falling apart. this process has been going on for more than 100 years. disintegration processes within russia are not going anywhere and the crisis will only be them. take a walk and the russia that we know now and the russia that was before putin's invasion of krym before the beginning of the ukrainian war in the future will not exist thank you for your answer, i will remind our viewers that mykola polozov was with me on the live broadcast, the lawyer was obviously talking about russia and, unfortunately, about putin, but i have to talk about it. well , i am told that she is already ready to join me.

my second interlocutor today is maria zolkina, an analyst at the democratic initiatives foundation named after ilka kucheriva. i congratulate you, mrs. maria. thank you very much for joining today's program. i am waiting for your professional answers that will allow me to understand the questions that, well, for me personally and for my viewers, sometimes seem difficult to understand. on the territories that russia now considers to be its so-called own please tell me, taking into account everything that happened after the referendum with the recognition of its so-called results by putin, then the so-called the annexation of these territories to russia ms. maria please tell me what we need to prepare for, what we need to wait for in the next

weeks, maybe months, it is obvious that this will be a victorious advance of the armed forces of ukraine, but what else do we need to wait for after that? well, we have to understand that russia has actually used already all their diplomatic, economic and military methods and blackmailing not only ukraine in order to force a victory not with russia, but also the tools with which it could put pressure on the west and therefore actually russia has only the only argument left, on which they now emphasize that it is some kind of use or threat of use of nuclear weapons, therefore, first of all, i would not be frivolous, since the situation in russia, from my point of view, is a critical prospect for obtaining military success on the territory of ukraine, they were so ghostly before that, absolutely negative, as they

like to say now in their information space, and that is why russia actually has a small arsenal of measures and means with which they can to try to stop uh, this is a losing scenario for us, uh, that's why on the military front, we need to prepare for what it is, in principle, maybe on the diplomatic front, uh, do you hear me, on the diplomatic front, the russians are making last efforts, they can't and won't succeed well and the third argument on which they count and er is actually the er spread of such conditionally er appeasing attitudes in some countries of the european union. i am

not talking about the diplomatic front, nor about politicians er and not about those communicative decisions directly about society and russians , counting on a cold winter, an energy crisis, unexpectedly high utility bills due to crazy gas prices and a shortage of gas in the countries of the european union will raise discussions from below in the european union about the fact that russia should already negotiate in ukraine, or how do the europeans count the russians will not be ready to pay these bills in the literal sense of the word bills well, but these are certain efforts, i would say so to russia, and calculations that are from uh, well, such a certain political desperation, if you can put it that way that strategically, now the situation is unfolding in a favorable direction for ukraine, and for the next 6 months, the situation will not change, the only possibility to

radically change something for russia remains, unfortunately for us, the use of some kind of terrible weapon, and i am not only talking about tactical nuclear weapons, which the russians constantly emphasize, but there are other types of weapons, biological weapons, chemical weapons, and in sich, the dictator of the kremlin will decide on this in order to actually stop his loss, well, it is unknown, maybe now the struggle will begin in the kremlin itself because , well, i still believe that there is a split in the russian elites for various reasons, not because someone is pro -western or against the war, but for rational reasons, this is a split is brewing and it is very logical in this situation, please. but i read information on

the national security adviser of the president of the united states of america, jake sullivan. he said that the united states of america is constantly communicating with russia regarding the possible use by russia of nuclear weapons, or some other terrible weapon that you mentioned. please tell me that in this constant communication, the united states of america can convince putin, well, to come to his senses, it is enough to just send such a message very straightforwardly, not that the consequences will be catastrophic. well, what is being said now is generally that, of course , the united states will never allow itself and no other nuclear country in the world, which currently supports ukraine, will allow itself to say publicly that in the

event of a nuclear attack on ukraine by russia, aa these countries or this country, such as the united states , will destroy the russian federation itself by nuclear means , that is, we should not expect such a public message, but it is precisely in this form that this signal, this message should be delivered to the kremlin , how much is it, exactly so formulated by washington, his communication with unknown but certain, but there are reasons to believe that the consequences are reported directly and we hope that even this irrational self is not for us the logic of putin, it is actually rationalized under the the threat of physical destruction and the leadership of the russian federation and russia itself, you are even talking about the physical destruction of the leadership of the russian federation, even

considering such an option. if you were any of the western countries to answer to russia, it would certainly not be in the siberian fields, but somewhere where decisions are made . yes, ma'am maria ot please tell me, returning to what happened in russia last week, in particular, this sabbath on the exact square, why are such sharish still possible in russia, what does it depend on the people, what else is it, what is it, or after all the fact that the leadership of this country puts a lot of pressure on this people does not allow them to raise their heads, as some people say, what does it depend on? why can't the russians stand up against this tyrant? as my previous interlocutor, mr. mykola, said , the russian people are not capable. now nothing to change the question to you, why do i remember, i am convinced that there

are political regimes, at least such as currently exist in the russian federation, they are not born in a society that categorically does not perceive these values, and therefore passively or actively society supports that ideology, on which the domestic and foreign policy of the russian federation is based, therefore, the sheba is also er, and this so-called from her, and they became possible because there is a willingness of society to look at it and treat it neutrally loyal or support it to its majority. this is exactly how it happens, and what is the role of public opinion in fact, because it is not only a matter of the absence of anti-war rallies, for example, but the issue of cars, the russians are now very active in the

international arena and are being developed by forces by the forces of russian intellectuals and by the forces of propagandists and the leaders of the kremlin , they are actually trying to divide into two different camps those who rule the russian state and those who live directly in the state. it is the task of the russian opposition and the russian liberal group, let's say this, to remove responsibility from russian society, in principle to say that they they live in some big prisons, so that they have an illegal regime, and therefore there is no political, moral, or economic influence on them. responsibility and from this already then the bottles about that look at the sanctions affect you i drive them there some kind of economic pit even more here

look at the discussion about the introduction of the ban on entries for the russian parade of ukraine of the member union e look at what they are demanding now, fleeing from mobilization in the russian federation, how they are demanding almost to be treated as political refugees and do not understand, sincerely do not understand, why they are not perceived as such, but they advance all these narratives and that is why in the russian federation there is a demand for a strong war game. that is exactly such an offensive uh-uh in terms of politics uh-huh external line of behavior is perceived and i am convinced that

our partner union, especially in western europe, will not understand what simply with the change of putin to a conditionally different head of the russian federation who will play the role of the one who corrects putin's mistakes will try to restart the dialogue of the west will take russian troops into the territory of ukraine and so on that this change itself is nothing in principle, in the policy of russia in relation to the outside world, it will not change strategically, because everything will be the same, these laws of history, the laws of public opinion. i have been engaged in researching public attitudes for many years, and if this question remains all this was partly caused and supported by society, it will simply lead to an explosion in 10-15 years, maybe even earlier there will be revanchist sentiments, there will be a feeling of a certain

humiliation. well, i will not appeal to the country, which i think we understand happened after one defeat. and who came a little more than 10 years ago, there was power precisely on the czech sentiments in society, but in the west and for us, for ukrainian analysts - this, by the way, is a serious challenge now, the problem that in the west, especially in western europe, is e yes, mrs. maria, we really have the last one. maria, i'm sorry, we have a problem with communication right now. the last thing you said was hard to hear. we'll redial you now and try to restore normal communication, because it's very interesting. listen to what ms. maria says, and it is interesting how she says what will happen next in russia, whether there will be these revanchist sentiments or not, mr. mykola,

my previous interlocutor, mykola polozov, said that there will not be any of these revanchist movements in russia you can only try to destroy it from the outside, but what is most interesting about what he said is that it is possible to destroy it, ms. maria, you are with us again, yes, yes. continue to speak because the sound broke a little and we can hear what you said, you can continue, we will understand what is going on a really significant part of us, i mean not only ukrainians, it is obvious to us, but when such an anti-putin anti-russian coalition is active, if we do not collectively understand that there is a serious request for such an aggressive policy or to prepare for the implementation of this aggressive policy on the part of russian society, then we simply even at a high price, after the victory over the russian army on the territory of ukraine, we will still

return to another war in 10 or 15 years. they will be preserved, they will explode again as a result, and instead of a new, transitional, putin-like president of russia, a new figure will appear anyway, and very soon it will be a figure no better than to be forgotten. well, this is very bad, ms. maria. please tell me your opinion, coming back until last week, and a few days ago, everyone was waiting for the speech of the secretary general of nato and jenson stoltenberg, even in the ukrainian public, in particular on facebook, which i like to read , they talked about what we should wait for this evening because yanstoutenberg has to say something very important, i confess, i behaved because i thought that he would say something about ukraine's accession to nato, and just before that, the office of the president of ukraine said

that we are somehow submitting a new application for accession to nato, and i thought to myself, maybe they will take us without the pdc, maybe in an accelerated way, in some way, because, for example, sweden and finland . everyone has a chance, he says countries obviously have a chance, because the doors of nato are open to everyone, but in your opinion, what are our chances of becoming a nato member in the short and medium term? i think that ukraine will become a nato member sooner than a member of the european union, and the fact that the ukrainian side is without one hundred percent coordination with our western partners, this decision was made by the e-e has an indisputable strategic importance, despite the fact that such an

immediate reaction to the ukrainian application, as there was a lack of political finland in sweden, will not that is, we will now have more discussions, now er, some members of er nato will feel very uncomfortable, including one of our best and actually strategic partners, but the situation requires non-standard solutions er. it requires an accelerated pace not just for the accession of ukraine to those alliances that are important for security in europe are also the european union, because it also creates a certain political umbrella for us and nato, but also requires non-standard policy decisions regarding russia, because the problem with as a reflection of russian aggression with the help of ukraine , it is understood in the western world that we are supplied with

more and more weapons every month, we have a positive dynamic, sanctions unprecedented in world history have been imposed on russia and from december 5, when the supply of oil from russia to the countries will be finally cut off of the european union, this effect will only take on greater forms for the russian federation, but among our western partners there is one question to which they cannot formulate an answer, and ukraine must push with help our central european and eastern european partners to push other members of the european union and nato to find an answer to this question. this question sounds like this. and if ukraine remains outside the european union , how will we be sure that similar