the main question simply remains open, what will happen to russia, a public question that i just want to ask for the last 10 10 minutes, what will happen to russia, gentlemen, well, let's refer to our general budanov, yes, the head of the main intelligence department, who said that there are two scenarios, or russia, that's all after all, they know more there and give us information, but this is very logical, that's what he says and he said, let's just repeat his theses here. he said that the first option is that russia is recovering, that is, what forces are healthy forces in the russians understand that something needs to be decided , decided at their own level, and they offer education in this regard, including to ukraine, and that they are apologizing, that they admit all their mistakes, that they are leaving all the countries they occupied or parts of the countries they occupied and it's not only ukraine, it's not only crimea, donbas, it's that, it's to a large extent, which concerns those parts of the countries that are now

considered subjects of the federation of abkhazia, that is, as i understood general budanov, it's not yet, but the second option. the second option is where it's just we asked when these countries that are subjects of the federation understand that they are interested in being independent, and we hear from the kalmyks that they somehow do not really want to be part of russia, that they humiliate it and are oppressed by the yakuts, we understand that ichkeria is extremely interested in being independent ukraine and the far east. i think that ethnic subjects still implemented such a thing there, but the russian, er, you mentioned china. there is none the recorded beginning of china, and this country also considers itself to be permanent and heavenly, because

it communicates directly with god, and i think that it actually does . i think that she is very much waiting for some territory that is in russia, and she may also be interested in that. one resource, yes, siberia is absolutely possible, and that is why if we are talking about russia, she has two elections or they will recover very quickly, they have very little time for to recover and admit their mistakes and do everything possible in order to get out of trouble, including ukraine , and confirm that they are ready to pay reparations for a very long time. the area of ​​the united nations or a new organization is so far and so far and so far, and that is, they admit mistakes, and secondly, secondly, they will not be able to do this,

and i am more inclined to think that the second option can be very er absolutely realistic the closest thing is to russia, well, that is, russia happened from the middle and is collapsing precisely because the emotional version is true. if earlier i thought about it in a theoretical way, then when the mobilization was announced on september 21, i saw the real possibilities, that is, the real triggers of the possibility of such a collapse, that is when did dagestan start protesting? and when chechnya, what kind of tree said that they had already completed the plan? they will not participate in the mobilization when a huge number of people fled the country, that is, because there they say 300,000 approximately what they declared declared as partially mobilization, these are all the people who took and fled , he is the only one i will add is simply volodymyr, but in my opinion this is a real trigger, a real possibility, a

real toolkit, how can russia fall apart, the results of wrong decisions, exactly the first option, therefore 20 options, that is, 26 that there are two factors before the collapse, the only thing i will note is, first, in order for this scenario to be implemented, the maximum weakening of the central government is required, that is, complete bankruptcy when the central government will ineffective well, what happened to the gorbachev regime ? yes, when the regional elites began to take as much sovereignty as they wanted, and here i will add another region, which in this sense, if this scenario will work, i think it depends on this region, what will happen next this is tatarstan, yes, because it is within its economic potential. let’s say so. here is such a continental russia, this scenario is also still in question, i do not rule out that they can be partially realized when some regions can fall away from classical russia and there will remain some kind of patchwork, yes, but with regard to the first

scenario, i agree, yes, as long as you know. he looks so idealistic, but are there any possibilities or what are the liberal forces inside russia and russia can understand the need or the forces are nightingales, they will show themselves i do not rule out such an intermediate scenario when, for example, the technocrats who are there, look, there is a mix of others, prime minister mirma special obyanin, they do not particularly abuse this rhetoric, and militancy yes plus yes yes well, she would rather play for financial stability , she will not apply for political work. i don't know if they are under sanctions, but look at the transit theory of the transition from authoritarian to demo regimes. in these processes, as a rule, the elites who are in power, who are in power, and how and at one time, gorbachev decided that it was necessary to move away from the conflicting and problematic topic gradually,

little by little, and agree on a solution and somehow stabilize the internal situation. we should not expect any kind of miracle from them, but it will be a problem for them and not only for them, for everyone, and for the world, and for us, and because putin took irreparable steps, this annexation , there was crimea, and here they added another aggression, four . will be traitors for a large part of their eh and at the same time they understand that it is necessary to get out of this war to forget, for example , even if there is no putin, zelensky is the only one about it said the question is, what will the regime be if there remains a conditionally regime of security forces that will act like putin? well, then the war will continue in various forms , there may be a pause, as was the case in

donbas, but the war will then continue . the option for this war will be the first to prepare for it. this is a challenge. it is this bad option that will be a challenge not so much for us, only for the world community, but at the expense of the world community. did you want to ask? i just wanted to voice such an observation. russia's options are absolutely natural for you and me, we are three ukrainians in ukrainian citizens who are sitting now in 2022 talking about this and russia, but as a security topic, it is important for us to be dangerous, yes, dangerous, absolutely. but we are talking about some processes that it is possible that they will take place inside russia, and the armed forces of ukraine will put in 100 percent, even 120 percent, but you and i, talking about russia, quite naturally ignored the topic of what can russia do with the world, meaning the world community that

the same un and so on, you noticed that we rely only on our own forces in this issue, like ukraine, or on some processes inside russia, look, here we are, in this case, our armed forces, our resistance is nationwide, it will be a trier it is a trigger for possible political changes in russia itself, what can they be ? we have named the basic options, but what can the world community do? i believe that there are already correct statements by some retired military e- is of american westerners, some western politicians about the fact that it is necessary to prepare for the scenario of the collapse of russia, because the position that was yes, yes, and not only he, god said similar things, and so, yes, before the americans, in the 91st year, they left or should be preserved the soviet union or here is to do it right,

kiev, what others yes yes yes make russia the legal successor of the former soviet union this is a conservative inertial option to ensure that i said it perfectly i don't remember the author of the quote but what at that time in 1991 actually the soviet union did not finish them, they were offered a gentleman's agreement, which is putin's regime, now the last thesis, and i think that the role of the international community, in particular, ion e well, will be that if a spontaneous scenario begins, a scenario of the collapse of russia will begin, to make this path managed together with us. i absolutely i am not convinced that he can cope with this task. i would look at this entire history of the international community a little differently, first of all, what the international community is doing now is the armament , the money, and the geopolitical support that we

we have uh, well, weapons. we understood that they are. lend-lease began on october 1. thanks to president biden, he signed the law that was voted in the congress and we will receive as many weapons as we need. and we are not talking about our friends great britain, we are not talking about other friends from the european the union, especially the baltic countries and poland , ah, hmm, well, about money, it is clear that ukraine itself will pull out the budget that we have for next year, 454 billion, it seems, well, it is obviously not enough , we need at least three times more, and we need these money will also be provided by our international partners , geopolitical support, well, listen, apart from the statements made by our partners, apart from the fact that we have accepted the application to the european union , the application will be considered if it were otherwise. of course , nato is more conservatively cautious about this but it is very simple for president zelensky of the political leadership of ukraine to submit this application from ukraine. and why is the international community

reacting to this at all now, let's remember what putin did on december 15, 2021. putin wrote a letter to of the world community. to the collective event, he said to the west, get out of our territories that we established before 1997, but you violated something in 1997, he thus said that ukraine is a step on the way to in 1997, that is, he is going in the past, yes, putin and all of russia , and they clearly showed that poland, the baltic countries, and even germany would be behind ukraine. putin liked to drink beer in dresden, listen. maybe they would like to divide germany as well. yes, what happened to e -th sections again on a-a well, here is a neighbor like volodymyr talked about the warsaw pact about nada but no result yes absolutely absolutely the world very clearly now understood that after february 24 after

september 21 putin will not stop anywhere this country is not adequate, this leader is not adequate, that is, they will go because i think that the whole world and the countries of this western world, if we are talking about the united states of america, about great britain, and about the countries of the european union key countries, and they understand that the organization will definitely not be able to cope with its task, the osce is definitely not able to cope with its task, therefore, on the one hand, they are not ready to quickly defeat and divide russia, so we get a little bit of weapons, so we will get a little bit of all the help for that in order for certain processes to take place in russia, that is why the general wants to talk about the fact that we must be ready for them to take place in russia, and he expresses the position of the general military

department of the united states of america and of the high-level political leadership are not ready for russia to disintegrate why because nuclear weapons because they understand that they are nuclear weapons well, if its only terrorism is managed in the form of one political leadership of the russian federation, how many such terrorists can there be if it is a nuclear weapon that will fall into incomprehensibility understand the people of the regions and what they will do, that is why they want to somehow stop this process, well, it is a ukrainian word, but copying the dismantling is not a collapse. and no one was interested in dismantling, so russia quickly disintegrated in the fact that where there are nuclear weapons well, that this territory where there are nuclear weapons of the russian federation was managed, this is exactly this territory and then a new organization should really be created, and on the basis of the eyes, just a new organization that should deal with issues of nuclearization, i.e., nuclear disarmament, starting with russia, that's why i don't believe in god, i don't believe in god at all,

even though i worked there for five years. i don't believe in the osce . today will be deal with the issue of russia and they, through ukraine, as a tool, and they will deal with the further issue of russia's nuclear weapons and the careful, cautious handling of russia, and those processes that will develop there and spontaneously and maybe it is managed like this, but again, let's not forget about china which was mentioned. by the way, i think that we really need to be careful how it will work. whether or not it will be possible to find any common solutions there, that is the g20, because this is precisely the platform where there are different interests, on the one hand, the west the world is interested in what you said, and on the other hand, there is china, india is angry, china is furious about the situation or the company, the process

is taking place. in china, why are they all under house arrest, the mortgage crisis is like this, absolutely listen to the chinese logical problem, an incredible person, therefore, china china we also have to understand this, but it remains absolutely the second center of influence and is a country that world politics is a bubble as long as you poke it with a needle. it can last only because you remember it. well, let's say it in russian, it depends entirely on china. we can talk, but there are many more of them in this country who can be one of the first voters who is there and one of the first or the first point a-a of

china's security doctrine is the point of food security for which ukraine is responsible and which it wants to violate violate violates and violates russia and that is why china was also interested in the grain corridor under the leadership of president zelensky and the mediation of president rodogan and that is why there are huge challenges how to feed a billion people in china in general, in my opinion, we literally have three minutes to the end if i were to ask you what ideas or theses should form the basis of the security architecture of the future global or regional european what would you tell me? well, the same idea that, unfortunately , was not implemented in full after world war ii, the idea of ​​preventing a new war, a world war, and a nuclear war, now.

unfortunately, once again, the risk of nuclear war and nuclear terrorism has appeared on the agenda, thanks to putin and threats, because the situation is a statement of blackmail. i think blackmail is a separate topic here. that russia has built or participated in the construction of various nuclear power plants around the world, this is also an element of nuclear blackmail, therefore , preventing a new war, especially a nuclear war, and preventing nuclear blackmail, this is the first main the principle of guaranteeing the security of individual countries. this is what non-nuclear countries are about. this is exactly what i think. the basis of these new proposals can be the proposals of yarmak rasmusan's group, so that they relate precisely to the creation of a new architecture and a new structure of the security structure. well, i absolutely agree . with volodymyr e. i think that the key role and task of this future organization will be

to ensure the nuclear safety of the planet in general, because we have to go on this planetary scale, there are countries that have nuclear weapons, there are a lot of countries that do not have nuclear weapons. and the world in general, it is time for the world to do something with nuclear weapons. elon musk did not just appear and offer to resettle some part of the population to another planet. let's not forget that in the context of climate security, they started talking about to the war, what will they return to just now, the current threat, they have reached the first class, climate security, continued security, which affects food security, directly depends on climate security, including, we understand it, because it was born somewhere, it is connected in including with the climate, that is why the european union introduced this european green course, to which, by the way, ukraine joined, and it seems to me that it will also be one of the leaders in the implementation of this european green course both in ukraine and in the world. by the way, and also from for the fact that the former soviet infrastructure of heat generation will be destroyed in our country. there are other types of

electricity and heat generation, and we will come to fundamentally new approaches in green energy, but about the nuclear world, even nuclear countries will be interested in self-preservation, because if russia, for example, wants to use nuclear weapons , china doesn't want that, india doesn't want that, other nuclear countries don't want that, then blackmail nuclear blackmail becomes a problem not only for non- nuclear states like ukraine, but also for nuclear funds for nuclear because they are responsible for the destruction of the world in such a case the prospects are they have their own plans and here some country absolutely decides for them whether these plans will be carried out or not so i think that the future organization. yes, it must ensure the impossibility of implementing which, i say this once and most importantly, the impossibility of using and, accordingly , through the instrument of nuclear disarmament, starting from russia and other countries, but this is a distant future

perspective, here are the parts of the new express system of international law, the new treaties and on nuclear safety on climate security about food security, this is the way of the future well, the only thing i can say is the main thing is not to sign them in budapest again, this is the only the holder is also very very unreliable er not a reliable city, that is, the city is beautiful there anton tourism may it develop well and again i thank you very much for this conversation i would talk more but we just don’t er they once said that moscow is not резиновая and we don't have time. ukraine will win unequivocally, there is no doubt that i am not even interested in the victory of ukraine . future architecture, i would like to remind you that our interlocutors today were volodymyr fesenko,

a political expert, and dmytro vasiliev, a political consultant, the president of the research and analytics agency. i am glad to thank you very much, dear

viewers . noy

ukraine

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