these are the capabilities of the first army corps of the trees of the second army corps, as well as in units and by the private military company wagner and artillery support. they have quite serious artillery support, but above this, above this, in general, everything will be limited, and with regard to other directions, i do not exclude that that they will try to carry out counter-offensive actions, counter-attacks in the area of ​​the saint, in the area of ​​flint, and in the direction of the thorn, and so on, but it will also be difficult for them to do this, even looking at the fact that now all locations they are trying to saturate with a large number of personnel, but these personnel, these units, they primarily had to replenish a-a at the expense of the so-called partially mobilized, that is, this is not exactly the resource they need, moreover, even when they have some the quantitative possibility to use some kind of resource quantitatively. we saw this on the example of the

kharkiv region, they use it effectively in the offensive, and only when they have the opportunity, for example, to support this offensive with the tactics of a large-scale fire shaft artillery and or a kit for it and now they are limited by these possibilities, they do not have enough artillerymen, they do not have enough ammunition i would like to ask about whether it is strange or not how putin is behaving in the sense that the analysts of the institute of war research say that he is not in the mood for negotiations and will continue to fight no less. we have seen since 2014 that they occasionally went to some truce negotiations in order to strengthen their army, strengthen their defensive positions and escalate even more. and now why is the

scenario different, mr. sergiu ? today they can't afford such a er such a truce because er in russia hysteria is building up that we're going to strike right now we're going to win and right now we're going to go forward that's why they themselves drove himself into such a trap when from one on the one hand, there is a clear awareness that they cannot achieve their goals in the form of offensive operations, and on the other hand, they cannot afford to announce a truce now, because the people of donbas are suffering, as they say . in other directions , and therefore admit that they are unable to do it and try to stop the war, they simply do not have the right to afford it. thus, despite

such messages that are now being sounded, it is unlikely that they themselves will go to a truce, especially when they have already declared and this logic of the e-e element that they demobilized from the mobilization ended logically after this demobilization, there should be an attack on the ukrainian armed forces in order not to somehow confirm the legalization of this demobilization and show how effective the current government is, as far as they are well, i have very serious doubts about that, because such an army or militia army, as it is sometimes called , is extremely costly and ineffective in its actions. this is a question for you, mr. oleksandr, that putin, in the current situation, is simply playing with these talks about negotiations and continues to mean the surrender of ukraine by negotiations. he hopes that sooner or later it will be

possible to force kyiv to such a capitulation by the destruction of civilian objects. well, we we see that they are now using this very tactic among themselves, even if we were talking about bakhmut and we mentioned bakhmut. and in recent weeks, it has been observed that they are concentrating artillery strikes not on the positions of the armed forces of ukraine that is, they also strike from the position, but the main concentration is already directly on the civilian objects and on the civilian infrastructure of bahmut a-a, that is, they once again demonstrate every time that elements of terror against the civilian population are a priority for them or their tactics tactics and the strategy of conducting hostilities , and as for putin, we understand that it is impossible to conduct any peace negotiations with him, and for putin there is only one goal - the seizure of ukraine, and he can, if it is initiated by any

to negotiate solely in order to gain time, to compensate for the losses in time, to restore the technical potential of the units, and to restore their a-a combat ability, and after that to resume military operations again by force, e-e offensive in one or another e-e direction therefore, any of these conversations are not exclusively a farce, but it is, we see that it is precisely combined with blackmail, that is, nuclear blackmail, then other blackmail, strikes on civilian objects, these are also all the elements of blackmail , which are intend to force ukraine to napakrylah a-a capitulate or go to some agreements with russia precisely on the conditions in russia well, we understand that this will not happen and first of all and secondly, we need to understand that and and here are these his uh aspirations precisely because of terror er, today,

due to some atactic about technical successes , we will be able to achieve our goal, and they will continue, so we must be morally and psychologically ready for this, mr. sergey, and in principle, you can explain the meaning of the conversation about the dirty bomb, which continues already understand that this is delusional, and russia is not just propagandistic , it is using it for this topic, the russian defense minister is calling all the defense ministers whom he knows or does not know. well, mr. vitaly, you have said the same repeatedly and you can actually answer this question, uh, about that great support which have, let's call them, such unstable minds in europe, and it is precisely for such unstable conditions or for the supporters of the russian world, whether conscious or unconscious, that such a provocation is actually calculated, and in this way, i myself was monitoring the western press i am surprised by the level of activity that is now manifested regarding the discussion of issues of absolute

magic, namely the issue of the so-called dirty bomb, and this topic is picked up again by some conscious or unconscious supporters of the russian peace in western europe and tries and this topic is spreading and psychosis, i 'll tell you. it's quite big because now one of the main issues has arisen is the question of purchasing potassium iodide and how to save it, so you know based on the concept of hybrid war or the concept of informational and psychological operations, this is a kind of operation that may not give an immediate effect, but it, you know, lays such seeds of doubt whether it is worth helping ukraine or whether it is not worth stopping and stopping support for ukraine and so on and so on, that is, ah in this case, we can say that the enemy is using such a large-scale strategy of gradually

changing public opinion in europe as far as possible. to what extent do they have enough resources to generate such primitive provocations, because precisely it is very difficult to say whether distinctive provocations are working in our time, because they are also under internal pressure, under internal pressure, we understand the growing problems in the economy and internal political contradictions in russia, and no matter how difficult it is to single them out now, they are already starting to unfold . this is external pressure from the ukrainian armed forces. this is also foreign policy isolation and the pressure of sanctions on the economy and on the political system of the russian federation, but such primitive provocations still work and precisely on such conditions, and they can be said tens of millions of such uh, i am in europe and not only in europe, and such an operation has been sent. thank you oleksandr kovalenko, serhiy grabskyi, military experts on our air, we are going to a conversation with a

diplomat, the minister of foreign affairs of ukraine in 2007-9, volodymyr magryskyi welcome to volodymyr welcome you, mr. victoria, as well as mr. angelica, your health is good, so let's try to talk about putin's moldovan speech, it's ungrateful, of course, work, i'm 22 years old, they're trying to talk about putin's speeches but putin is 22 years old it practically says the same thing, and in essence it all started with an interview with larry king when he said about the boat that he sank, and there is an illusion among people who have not seen this interview that it was the culmination of the interview and this was the beginning of the interview larry king, the first question he asked putin was what happened to the kursk submarine, then he said, well, it sank, and then yes, she froze and then, somewhat stunned, began to talk to him, but no one listened for the next hour, because everyone was in such a frenzy, and that's by the way me too it seems now, uh, everyone is just looking with wide-

open eyes at all this, i think what is happening to a person in general, she is serious after the phrase sat on dad yes, is she serious or is she fooling around with this, this is an important question, is he serious or true is he just really such a goblin or is he plays a role. well, you know. i vividly remember listening to his performance , and more. honestly speaking, yes, it's true , what's next? i couldn't bring myself to listen to all this talk. well, i a historical-philosophical phantasm would say so, eh, because that's it it simply goes beyond common sense, what can actually be done, it seems to me, to single out from this speech the fact that you are absolutely right here, it is absolutely certain that he does not change, that is, he lives in his completely illusory world and he is fine in this world and here he thinks that he

will rule this kind of world forever and that everything around him will actually be subordinated to his phantasms, on the one hand, it can be good, because we humans can predict what will happen before, how to look at what can be calculated, say, in the near future the next month, eh. at the same time, everything on the other hand is dangerous, because if it was really some eh, 70-year-old eh, grandfather who sits on a bench and tells his nonsense eh, his fantasies to neighbors on the bench - that's one thing, but today grandpa is a nuclear bomb and here, to prevent something from this other world, he suddenly wants to go to the real one, and in the real one he has a red button and here, that's exactly this. i think it's a big

problem and a threat to everyone because that, on the one hand , it's his problems, and on the other hand, his fantasies the red button is our problem here, a big big uh , so to speak to make a decision and you know. in this regard, i simply stand and applaud because, uh, crossing very, uh, big political obstacles, so to speak, uh, my internal obstacles, uh, the choice was made by steinmeier, i still know him from the time when he was the minister of foreign affairs and when he er really spent er well, let's say so er pro-russian policy, we will not use the verb eh, that is, the preposition recklessly, no eh, well,

you know now he made, it seems to me, a powerful political step, he admitted himself guilty. he said that i was wrong, and by the way, he did not start looking for someone else on who can be blamed there? the same merkel or someone else? he said yes, i was one of those who carried out a failed, catastrophic policy, and here is his change now, this is his truly programmatic speech. after returning from ukraine, she she it is inspiring, she says that even those people who , sincerely or not, were wrong, and who today in the west still continue to play a certain and uncertain, it will be a serious political role, they are capable of self-analysis and policy change, and so it seems to me

putin can't understand what's going on, he still thinks that he's still pulling someone's strings over there in germany . the gap from reality is truly fantastic. well, but uh, but we have to live with it and understand that either we are him or he is us, there is no other option. shtanmayer is able to draw conclusions from reality simply because of putin, no, absolutely. i think that putin actually did not say anything new. well, that’s true . well, no new, smart things were said. instead when we talk

about the uh about the steinmeir speech - it's really new vision this is a new approach and i am very happy because steinmeier and scholl are from the same party - they are social democrats, they are people who communicate very intensively, they are people who really define today in their party, so to speak stein already has a non-party from a supra-party , but still, one way or another, these are people who can determine very serious things in the coming months, which are critically important for us, so i repeat once again, for me, this is really an example er, of a european politician, which is up to the very analysis who is capable of self-criticism, admitting his mistakes

, of what by the way, putin is absolutely incapable in another world, the recognition by the head of state of his mistake means his political, and in russia , physical death, so putin will go to the end, and this is also a big, big problem. and tell me, mr. volodymyrovych, let's deal with this triangle, the united states, china and russia, why the chinese minister of foreign affairs on the day of this speech by putin was to make such a statement about his readiness to support russia, er, for me it was also a bit of a surprise. this is what china has been doing in the east for the last month . we all saw that it is not at all on the side

of the kremlin and does not want to do this because it understands the risks for itself and that is why it is. well, it is rhetorical. -e asked the question whether we need a war or not we need to fight to the table of negotiations i.e. algors in the right things, well, which uh, so somewhat uh, were inclined to uh, support for uh, russia, but together with the defect of support as such, it was not uh, or is it uh, some kind of uh, manifestation of a political change, uh, i think that no, i think that this is most likely an attempt to play with the same americans, giving them, er, you know, an idea. well, you see. and we can

start working in this way, although according to this statement, which was in principle of a general nature, we did not see any practical steps so what do you think here is more of an attempt to feel the us position to understand how serious the american reactions to all these things will be, but no more , i don't think that china will risk questioning 65 or 70% of its exports to the west, because of some illusory support of the parents of faith, which will obviously lose, so i think it's out of the ordinary there are more uh-uh political uh-huh ways than practical support, volodymyr, but there is still an interesting aspect , after all, in the statement of support for russia, china made a statement towards the usa and the usa made a simultaneous one. that

they are ready to understand in principle in politics from time to time, we see such statements by china's foreign officials, which in practice are not very reflected, but in reality, but after all, joseph biden was so soft in his statement. shall we say this traditionally? does it still mean something now? look . is beijing interested in the fact that russia definitely lost? maybe yes, and maybe not, why not? well, because then the process of such turbulence begins, where no one knows what is in the example. and what will you take in in the end, as your prize when you are like that got along with the united states of america and maintained certain relations with the russian federation and

agreed with the same americans that they would not play the game to the end and break russia so that it collapses, this preserves certain opportunities for the future if you got angry with the americans and they understood that this line, the moscow axis, could become a threat to them, then it is not forgivable that the americans will go to the end and bring your uh, well, actually the only ally uh become, so to speak, interesting topics for discussion, so i think that it is possible to agree, including at the expense of russia, that is, to lower it to a certain limit, to provide opportunities to play the role that it

prescribed for itself in the last years of this next world center of power and somewhere it is even possible to manage jointly well, to the extent that it is usual. maybe that is why there are many options. thank you very much, mr. volodymyr, for participating in the live broadcast with the press. of foreign affairs of ukraine during 2007-2009 was with us the direction of communication, we are moving on maksym bilyavskyi, expert, energy program of the rosunkova center, mykhailo honchap, president of the goluborizka strategy 21 center, we are in touch and we talk, of course, about the energy situation, congratulations, mr. maksym, congratulations, mr. mykhailo good evening good evening well, let's start with you a little, and mr. mykhailo, this energy blackmail is actually the former president of russia, dmytro medvedeev, who voices the most insolent statements of the kremlin, he says that don't fulfill our ultimatum at all, you will all be without light, how to react to this, well, in

principle, the european union reacts quite confidently starting from the spring of this year, when the first scare passed and they began to work on preparation plans, so to speak, until the autumn-winter period in the european sense, this somewhat more widely than in our country, and we can now see the consequences, even the far from self-confident german chancellor scholz makes quite decisive statements, as well as the leadership of the european commission of european institutions in in general, therefore, i think that, in principle, brussels, as the capital of the european union, reacts adequately enough, and the presence of, well, somewhere in different countries in different ways, but in general, in the european union, about 95% of gas reserves are in underground storages, this is also a serious argument and, of course, it works, and we can see it in the supply of liquefied gas gas to europe, transatlantic energy

solidarity, therefore, in principle, i think that the european union feels quite confident here of course there are certain exceptions hmm which er have had and will have place i mean orbán who is playing the role of a soviet horse, but he agreed, i won’t do it in the european union. please tell me, after all, this is a public confession of terrorism on the part of medvedev, maybe there are some other mechanisms of influence, some kind of tougher reaction or statement on the part of western countries, because that’s what they supposedly know there in the kremlin allows such rhetoric. and we sit like this and wait for what will happen next, well, that is, nothing for the european union.

illusions about the portrait of the killer and in the near future we will observe in the son and new and concrete actions, first of all, the rubicon will be the own restriction on the supply of oil, russian oil and oil products, first of all, to the market of the european union, therefore, in my opinion, the confrontation is only beginning and the answers will be properly given because the russian federation is a terrorist regime and i personally have high hopes for mr. stambayer's visit to the people's republic of china why because china, like saudi arabia, is one of the main players on the global

oil market, and according to my expectations, after mr. steinmeier's visit to china, the situation may change fundamentally, first of all, on the front, mr. mykhailo, let's still try to understand what technical capabilities we have to fight this constant russian pressure on the energy system. it is not over. maybe we don't know what the results of this anxiety that has just passed before our airwaves are. supplies, especially for gas. well, we see that they are not working. actually, let's remember the last season of 21-22, because then there were also serious restrictions, a serious price jump on the european market, with the aim of forcing the european union

to transfer to germany the launch of nord stream-2 nothing has worked out, especially now that many in brussels have no illusions about what russian energy resources are, what they are, if they are wise, they say that this is the weapon of the owner, so if the kremlin remains in principle another option, and he demonstrated it, what happened on the northern streams, they blew up the northern streams, this is basically a demonstration and a hint to the europeans that an attack can happen not only with these four pipes, three of them were blown up, and similar things can happen a-a on gas pipelines which connect the north sea. it is the norwegian gas fields with europe and the mediterranean sea where the algerian gas is located from the south to the

european union, so if this is the case, in my opinion, this is the last remaining argument the kremlin's ultimaraction, so to speak, is the last argument of the kremlin, and i would say that this is a serious threat, and we see the appearance of various drones in the area of ​​norwegian legal platforms, the strange visit of a russian submarine to the mediterranean, that's why, in my opinion, this is preparation for something like this is a scenario of actions that will undoubtedly cause a serious internal resonance in europe, because norway is the number two and now the number one supplier of gas to europe, algeria is the number three, respectively, now the number two, therefore it is but seriously, i think that the measure is used later, look, look. maxime, there is still such a practical question, after all, from electricity consumers, and these plans for the schedule of fan outages

published by ukrenergo or regional operators often do not coincide with the actual power outages of people in apartments and houses how to deal with it, why exactly, and i understand that during the war it is difficult to plan in advance , but still, children are also studying and there is a certain necessity for this and how then are we to live and get out of all this, well, first of all, i would like to note that it is almost impossible to estimate the so-called curve of the production of electricity consumption in the energy balance in order to help cut, why, because there will not be a single dispatcher who would be able to predict how many households or commercial consumers there are at any given moment time or will directly load the energy system of ukraine with its demand or this demand will actually relieve the

load from the energy system of ukraine , so i personally recommend that it be considered among those schedules that are published by the operators of the distribution system and formed by the operator of the ukrenergo transmission system with understanding. that is, this is an expectation, but the fact also depends on the culture of consuming electric energy, that is, on each of us, so i personally advise for each household to determine the limit of use and household devices, especially in peak loads, in my opinion, it should be no more than 500 w, which is proportional to the consumption of, for example, a refrigerator and an incandescent lamp, i suggest starting from this starting point and

then i personally hope that it is even possible and there will be no planned outages, it is very important for us now , in fact, for each of the consumers to replace the regulating function, that is, to replace the maneuvering power of thermal power plants that were deliberately removed by the enemy from the energy system of ukraine itself, but repair work is ongoing, the energy front rests on the heroes of the energy industry, the gas workers and the situation will change for the better, better, thank you, thank you, please. energy program expert tsentrozhenkova and mykhailo gonchar, president of the center for global studies strategy 21 thank you mr. vitaly portnikov and i will be back