the stories of the success of western europe and japan are stories of external influences on the internal circumstances of germany and japan. well, let’s take only these two countries , the main countries of the second world war. well, in my opinion, there is no revolution for this coup, there is a path to the point and the grave, the sooner these riots and the pogroms will happen all the faster, this will accelerate the collapse of the russian federation, besides, i do not see the collapse of the peaceful, i see, first of all, as the immersion of russia in such a deep civil war of everyone against everyone, and it will be a matter of controlling certain interest groups in the territories that we are able to control by military means or with private military companies. that is, this is not entertainment for 86 subjects of the russian federation, it is together in the territory that will be controlled in the orlor in

some shooting conditionally i say in quotation marks and on this , actually speaking, e- and then we can talk about the global management of the stabilization mission, the maintenance of peace in the territory of the storage of nuclear weapons, the concert of interests, including the approach of china and other partners, and the prevention of the spread of conflicts from the territory of the former of the russian federation, that is, the scenario here is a possibility , and in addition, this is the point of the russian federation's uh, super loudness, it is achieved by uh, various factors, and it can be predicted where it will arise and where the collapse of the russian federation will begin. i would not do this because it is a guess on the coffee grounds, as conscience shows, history in many cases can be a point of super loudness any minor factor, starting with the police killing of a soldier's mother and ending with the lack of bread

in stores, for example, in the conditional suburbs of moscow, and this can communicate a whole cascade of things that will eventually lead to the collapse of the soviet system itself kulik political scientist director of the center for the reduction of civil society problems thank you very much we have to break for three minutes for advertising about some such circumstances so that you know how wonderful you are watching now so i will be back in 3 minutes a step in the treatment of a cold , a proven drug, not a cosmetic mixture , we will be healthy, ask vietnamese pharmacies, trust only proven drugs so that ukrainians don't think about so that they don't talk about the

first place, war still comes out, war is our victory, seven days a week from monday to monday, seven different spheres of human activity, sports , culture, politics, eight presenters, espresso , journalists, experts, opinion leaders in real time about the most current events through the prism of war every day author projects on espresso join the community with a ukrainian view of the world become a sponsor of the youtube channel espresso and this is access to exclusive content - personal thanks fixed comments, special icons and the possibility of personal communication with the espresso team, click to sponsor and become part of the community with a ukrainian point of view, every week the saturday political club helps to understand the processes taking place in ukraine and the world, vitaly portnikov, the

host of espresso and invitations, experts based on facts give their assessment and forecast the development of events . to understand how our today will affect our tomorrow, watch saturday's political club that saturdays on espresso good evening we are from ukraine big broadcast vasyl winter my name is vasyl winter two hours of air time until 21:00 two hours of your time we will talk about the most important things two hours to learn about the war it turns out our air serhiia zgoretska military summaries of the day what is the world like what in the world will yury fizer tell two more hours to be in the course of the economic news of the protest oleksandr was struggling he tells us about the economy during the war and new sports yevhen pastukhov is ready to talk about sports for two hours in the company of favorite presenters about culture during lina is ready to talk about the war, or something else that many people have become like, maybe the weather will give

us some optimism ms. natalka didenko is ready to tell us, as well as distinguished guests of the studio , we will have volodymyr grishko today, if everything goes well, the events of the day in two hours vasyl's big broadcast in winter, a project for intelligent and caring people in the evening , naspresso good evening we are from ukraine good health, yes, three minutes have passed and i'm coming back and we will continue with you until 5 p.m. i have it written here at least and we continue our program ask questions if you have them from time to time now you will have a rather exotic topic on the one hand exotic on the other hand not exotic but i will now switch to the russian language because the person from whom i will speak is located in geneva, in fact, in the center of the un, the geneva yeniovsky center, he i am the nevsky swiss - this is the head of russia's nuclear weapons project, pavlo podvig, an expert in

nuclear security at the institute of disarmament research, here he is now in front of us, we can see him, i'm talking to him how am i promised in russian hello and it's nice that you found the time on sunday to talk with us see uh this is the first big question this is even a question i would even say from the 80s the last things i read show that the doctrine of guaranteed mutual annihilation it doesn't work that if earlier we were sure that the soviet union was dropping missiles on america, america on the soviet union, and actually, well, the earth sharp is disappearing, but now people are saying experts that if there is damage to america, it will be bad for europeans

but it will not be totally bad and not totally bad for america. but nato will bomb russia completely, that is, in the event of total destruction, a lot of destruction is not guaranteed, and russian ostracism is guaranteed. what did you say about this account ? er, mutual guaranteed destruction is not an actress, this is reality, er, this is such a life that each of us has the opportunity, er, to apply er, a colossal farm to which party, and due to this, er, it turns out that they refrain from attacking on the other hand, if you look at the models that people have developed, that's how the city exchanges

blows, and of course, the destruction will be mutual and catastrophic, as it stands from the other side, that is, you need to understand that if it is done, it will happen before such a full-scale exchange of nuclear strikes, we will be talking about tens of millions of people killed in the course of several hours, that is, there is no, no, no, that is, the situation that here will suffer more, someday it will suffer less, that is, on one side there will be less than tens of millions, and in the other country there will be more than ten millions, but we will still talk about everything, but on such a scale, it is good, now the question is, then, we are talking about strategic, this is the famous triad, yes, when everything that is, everything is launched and mutually destroyed. if we are talking about the so-called tactical nuclear strike, what are the possibilities of the

parties here? tactical nuclear weapons is not a very accurate term, because, uh, they strictly say the use of actual weapons in the field, field uh, and it is very difficult to come up with uh, in some military sense, even if especially if these are the course of the current war, it is clear that it will be decided if one country has a nuclear weapon, if it suddenly wants to even use it, and then it is clear that

it will be impossible to achieve any special military property, that is, in you don't have large concentrations of troops and uh there aircraft carrier perov, which can be hit by this type of weapon, and therefore it is necessary to clearly understand that the use of any use of nuclear weapons will be strategic, in what sense it will be a signal that the party that changed it is ready to use more and more and is ready to increase the attack and that's it people are moving to attacks on the civilian population in cities, that is, they will threaten to move . the number of dead people, that is, and that is exactly how it is, and it is necessary to relate nothing, the military tactical

use of nuclear weapons is realistically impossible today, and it is only a question of readiness for that very escalation and manure, it is really difficult to imagine that anyone will be ready to go to such a kind of scam because, again, the consequences will be very catastrophic, that is, the experts who say that the maximum the kremlin can do is blow up money at the north pole as a show off look, we are ready, we have an explosion at the north pole and you are afraid of us, but the west will not start to be afraid, that's how it would be, and that's it, and that's it, and that's it, and it blew up, that's okay, that's all, and nothing has changed, well , not here, but a few things about that that they will begin to fear, that is, there is no need to. i think that by reducing uh,

uh, the degree of taktiror, which brings with it the possibility of uh , large-scale use. a demonstration even if it 's all over the north pole or somewhere else... there will be demonstrations of what this is, there will be a demonstration. well, if you are ready to go further , to raise money, i am talking about attacking cities and actually giving tens of hundreds of millions of people, eh, and eh, in this sense, eh, i believe that there should be a clear understanding of that that any demonstration is actually not er-er er-er pima, that is, in any form , that is, it is not, and this is condemnation, and if you go

, preventive condemnation of this kind of demonstration , it is actually at home. play plays a role to which deterrents, which in general, such thinking panstratsii, for example, just a few days ago, the minister of defense of india, in a conversation with the minister of defense of russia, directly told him that any use of nuclear weapons would go against the most fundamental notions of humanity. that's it. it’s clear that of course, that’s all, uh, that’s the relationship to uh , the possibility of nuclear weapons, and be a demonstration, it’s going to be a sleep attack. it plays a role and it is stored in the heads of people who, er, can or cannot talk about

it somewhere in moscow. well, i’m talking, and here you are when you drink beer at home with your closest friend with whom you studied . and you are a person who is called by the un investigate these circumstances, you talk to this friend and you know it, i think there will be a nuclear war , or you say donets, listen to evan ivanovich , yes everything will be fine, everything will be fine they say that if putin wanted to start such a war, he would inject himself with botox, he wants to live, he wants to look good, he wants to be fit, he swims in the pool every day, such people do not start a suicidal war, so that you can

say this conditionally to ivan ivanovich, your accomplice yes, fellow student, well, here is the situation. i wouldn't uh, that's how to wave away from uh, this kind of development of the event , because here, uh, there can be different uh situations, and in different uh situations, it is possible to do so to fight sometimes the situation can get out of control and it is said that no one wanted but this is how it will be understood that we want to avoid this so to speak they ask me about it, you can be sure that we are not yet at the point where nuclear weapons can

become a reality with me and in a few steps, how the statements of the russian leadership that were around the nuclear option were remembered in such a way that they were directed against the west. there was always a clear message. no one from the officials mentioned the possibility of using nuclear weapons in ukraine against ukraine, and moreover, all the parts there, uh, everything will rise from this. drawings according to which i am talking about, when it will be today, we will definitely see, first of all, a change in the rhetoric surrounding this issue. while we

are not talking about it, the second very important point is that if we are talking about a weapon that theoretically can to be used in this situation within the framework of this region. let 's say that within the framework of this conflict, this is not a strategic weapon, this is all except for intercontinental ballistic missiles on boats . and this is all, this weapon is actually not deployed, it is located in warehouses, but it is located in a warehouse, a warehouse, they are far away from missiles and airplanes that can be carried out, and before that , there is a possibility, a psychological possibility, to use if ammunition, and charges, and they must be transported in a state readiness, that is, they will have to be taken out of the warehouse, show them there, take the trucks to the airfield, or put them in a package to install their warheads

on the rocket, that is, this is the whole process, again, we do not see this now, and we do not see it yet here he once again spoke about the possibilities, this is only theoretical, but in practice we have not yet come to that and that. here is another question, eh. pavel devya - see many people yesterday and the day before yesterday, he was just engaged in it. and uh, i read somewhere that the regulatory works have been increased four times. well, that is, this is the rocket that is in the mine . it needs to be studied once an hour. well, for example. yes, i am speaking as an example. that there is no specialist because first of all there are a lot of specialists in ukraine, and many regulatory works were carried out in the south, and when

it was even possible now, they are not carried out then simply, and perhaps you imagine the option that one of the reasons for not starting any aggression is that the russian leadership itself is afraid of explosions in the mines if we don't know what's going on there if we don't have money. how was it in the 90s or we don't have ukrainians. how is it after the 14th year ? who understand how it works ? well, we understand that where there are 15 or 20 buttons, this is also a long procedure, but it just breaks and this is the end of the whole flight. the main reason, or even one of the reasons, because it still exists, it’s clear, there are experiences of the operation of these systems,

they will be missiles, and whether it’s actually nuclear ammunition, it’s clear that how dear engineer the system you have, all these hot ones have a certain reliability and this reliability is of course not 100% but my understanding is based on the data that is also based on the test data and the general idea of ​​how the system works, the number of frequent charges, and how the regulation works and is simpler . that is, i think that you already know how the system works at the level of more than 90 percent, and that’s what it is, that is, in this sense, i wouldn’t be here, too. armor is completely

er . in the sense of er degree of reliability it is provided here i think er it is necessary to leave me and take them, here is the last question, eh, actually, he was the first, it’s me, just so that we can round off in the classic leader with the same thing, end with the same thing that we started with, that is, according to your version, according to your knowledge, according to your understanding of the situation, not m- m it is hardly possible to have a tactical nuclear war without transitions, a strategic one, that is , to escalate on the very fact of some use - this is a very likely scenario when the escalation will simply not be stopped here. everything depends on everything. you understand.

said that there is some kind of automatism here, that is, and in principle, you can imagine a scenario , for example, that, well, russia has decided to use nuclear weapons for the very demonstration that i said that we ready to go everywhere eh go how can we go further and further everything depends on the answer that is lake weapons, that is, but there is an argument in poland that, er, the west is no longer there it is worth responding with nuclear weapons. and maybe it is not necessary to respond with a military image in general, but to continue the policy that resurrects the support of ukraine in ways that are today. and because, by and large, it is stopped that uh, uh, if uh, in

moscow, it will be possible to say that what is called to be done by the united states is necessary for the west, uh, the real participants of this conflict, in the sense of applying specific uh, specific uh, messages and so on and then that's the probability of finding it everything increases very much and then we are already talking about the possibility of scaling up to the game itself, and i think everyone already understands that this is the most denigan-like, er, catastrophic consequences, but the most important point that i want to emphasize is that here is the 100th message there is a position that the use of nuclear weapons, even the thought of using nuclear weapons, should be a-a perfect rule out, yes, but it should be televised, that is, we cannot

give him even an opportunity for some kind of justification that is, situations. and if this signal will be opened constantly, clearly and without wavering , then it will be a contribution to the fact that the indian minister will not be able to say that there are more of these declared more so, in the position, there is more talk about the fact that it will not be humane, anti -humane skretchak, and then there is hope that we will hold this case, that is, steps. when we all очень проходымся от етого спасибо pavel podvig expert - this is i switch to the ukrainian language excuse me, i think the dangers from the essence of the un from

research in the field of disarmament from geneva, the head of the project, just the nuclear weapons of russia , we were in touch, and well, we learned something, at least before the program, we understood less of it and now we understand more of it but in order to simply to understand everything perfectly, you need to ask defense express expert ivan krychevskyi, if we don't ask him, we won't fully understand what is happening, for example, in the bakhmut direction, so i assumed yesterday good health, ivan i'm glad that you found time for us on sunday, i just assumed yesterday because at first i thought it was written with honey on it, it was smeared with bakhmut for the russians, then i thought that there was some uh, maybe there is money there, or there are teams somewhere they know who then said that bakhmut - it used to be artemivsk, they want champagne, well, i’m so ordinary, but you, sir, what

’s wrong with that bakhmut? well, you have to be a bigot to climb and climb and climb, they are shot and neutralized and killed, and they climb and climb and this bakhmut is already several months bakhmut well, what is it? why do they have to beat their heads against the wall? well, it is already clear that nothing will happen. well, they will go another 100 m, and then ours will be pushed back by 100 m, and then they will come again, tired. your answer is the version about artemivsk champagne. it's probably a good place, at least if you take into account the fact that the champagne is not very good there, but the russian audience will come. well, but if you're talking more seriously, you know. well, by and large. and what else should they do? well, if you look at the map like that really theoretically if we well try to put yourself on the side of the enemy, then if you take bakhmut, it means to open a

way for yourself there to this agglomeration hm slavic kramatorsk well, continue to move through the donetsk region and, accordingly, you know, achieve the goals set to reach the so-called border of donetsk region is, of course, to put ourselves on the side of the enemy. but if we return to where we should be, that is, except here , here, then it turns out that the russians are using a very wrong strategy, because they are really trying uh, how do you say literally vlob to break into a narrow section of the front, they naturally get pumped back and on a new one, while this conveyor belt of paramourning the orks there will work further there with the participation of our tankers from the other side, you know they are in such a situation when there is no way out, what to do then let's imagine that the russian army decided not to advance there, this is in a political plan, if we take all those internal russian timetables for them, the end on the other hand, if there is a chvk wagner will stop advancing there, that is, throw all these

silly attacks, redrawing our positions of all these recruits, this is also for prigozhin, the end is possible, moreover, if you take into account some other messages, for prigozhin himself, it will be an even more catastrophic end than even for his seam. kadyrov, who also seems to have entered a situational triumvirate with a suitable one. well, if kadyrov's loyal foot soldiers admit defeat and stop advancing there, well, imagine what kind of internal disaster will happen to them, you know this the catastrophe will actually be even deeper than if the anti-missile defense of moscow misses something there, you know, more often than not a peaceful atom, and this is more often than not, it falls directly on the kremlin , listen to the question we discussed today , i want to ask your opinion , this story is important to me by mr. lapin, i am sitting and trying to learn world history. he is not, i am not a great

specialist, i cannot say that i know everything, but when a person from the street is a beauty, who is not an institutional person, yes, a person not in an institution she is not a minister, not a deputy minister, not the chief of the general staff, no one, not a deputy chief, just a person from the street says, "let's take it off, mr. president, something shitty, this lapin. let's take it off, and here and there, i had complete balls for the rollers, as they used to say in my childhood, putin has fallen too." says good idea, let's shoot well, it doesn't happen like that, it didn't happen under hitler, it didn't happen under the japanese emperor, it's still somewhere in some system yes, we shoot the background of brownie, or is there someone else ? i don't remember in the second or at the beginning of the 41st or at the beginning. in short, it's always institutional

, some things happened that someone says to someone not from the street, but here if they say from the street, anuka is a good idea, let's implement it, it doesn't happen, unfortunately, there are two historical examples to cite the first one , approximately 1918-1920 let's say that there was an opposition between the two factions of the bolshevik commissars to which stalin belonged well , let's say that, let's say that the personnel officers' office to which they were perhaps even mistakenly attributed tukhachevsky, well, no one of you knows this story better, i know it better, where are these old specialists, or what did they call the tsykhtar officers? well, roughly , there was such a dispute between them, the conflict was tokhachevsky took the university and won it at the head of the cadre military. let's say after this in order to consolidate his victory with such a tedeological victory. although