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tv   [untitled]    November 20, 2022 5:30am-6:01am EET

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switched on sockets consume energy in sleep mode thank you for turning off devices that you do not use let's beat the winter together 5:30 on the clock we continue the national marathon live on the air the only news the ministry of economy can revise the macro forecast of ukraine until the end of this year, and all because of russian strikes on objects of energy, the first vice-prime minister of the economy of ukraine, yuliya svyridenko, said that, according to her, the ukrainian economy has already fallen by 30% due to massive missile strikes. therefore , the post-war issue is currently acute recovery not only at the expense of international partners and donors, but also for the payment of reparations from the aggressor country, at the same time, losses in the russian economy will amount to only about four and a half percent. and this indicates the need to strengthen sanctions in the future post-war reconstruction, we
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must count on what we can use the funds of russian assets are frozen and we must involve our international partners in the reconstruction. but the most important task for all of us, we understand this, is to stabilize the economy itself, understand that we have international partners. we are very grateful for the help this year and next year. we expect that the deficit of the state budget of less than 38 billion will be covered at the expense of the macro aid program. is the imf that we expect and but the most important thing for us and our task is to really stabilize the economy of the country internally, we are adding another expert to our conversation, this is hryhoriy kuzurza, an economist in ukraine, the economy of out luk, he is in direct contact with us p hryhoriyu good morning good morning, let's see. now, are we reassuring the ukrainians or vice versa? i would like to know
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your opinion about the revision of macroeconomic forecasts for next year, which are related to the russian strikes on the energy infrastructure. macroeconomic forecasts. i understand that this is both a course and infectious expectations. the fact that macro forecasts are reviewed by the national bank once a quarter by the ministry of economy once a month and this is absolutely normal, but it just coincided with what were massive strikes on the given energy infrastructure, everyone felt a significant deterioration in the supply of electricity just yet. yes, the phrase a-a yuliya sredenko about the need to review the macro forecast, somehow everything happened in some kind of apocalyptic or puzzle or how a-a look for now in fact, even well, the data in order to view, especially now , the macro forecasts until the end of the year, there are not so many of them, but
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the number one point is that what we see is not direct data, and electricity consumption has fallen by approximately 15-20%. is it possible to correctly assume that by the end of the year the change in energy consumption will be reflected in the gdp? no, these data are not enough. there are also some budget revenues of the private sector that are being formed, that is, in order to catch this trend to the end. well, to display it correctly. well, not yet, the data itself is not enough. yes, the same data on the basis of the consumption of the population, well, the digitalization of our economy, it is not yet enough so that in a few days, such collect data and build a macro forecast on the basis of them, so well, in the future, if the war will continue there, quarter 2:3, and
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where there is likely to be, it is more likely. that is how it will be. and it is possible where there is a direct economy together there somehow with rnbouche as a headquarters will be created or there will be a ministry of finance , which will also attract more data from private sector companies regarding the fact that such data is available in private companies engaged in the production of software, a-a, aggregate them somehow more precisely, monitor these trends so far a-a, one moment eh real gdp, that is, the entire physical volume that we consume since the beginning of the year fell by 30% in january , october, and in november, it again deepened to - 39%, this is the data of the ministry of economy, although it is also important to understand that these data can fluctuate . economy i could at the same time somehow not allow to go deeper into the shadows and so on. that is, it is quite conditional data for a warring country to collect statistical data in general, to aggregate such
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indicators as gdp and population incomes and so on, this is quite a conditional matter, this is very important, but to understand, and that is, the only macro indicators that are actually absolutely correct, you can always estimate inflation, budget revenues on the basis of them, you can do something about them. well, they are the most correctly estimated . there is 26%, that is, in fact, there is a growth of 4% until the end of the year, and it can probably be higher, because we see that now the business is forced. significantly increase the cost of production, how it will be reflected in inflation, well, believe me, no one knows at all, and including business is limited in transferring its cost to the population because there is not much capable demand, but on the
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contrary, the situation is improving now, and it has improved significantly over the last week the national bank attacks only about 1,060 million dollars of the market. well, before that, 700-800 were sold there, well , 600 in good months, that is, the situation with reserves, the situation with the currency, it is significantly improving conditionally, but people are not yes, people don't go to supermarkets, because they are closed, import consumption has fallen in our country. well, no matter what, it may have increased in oil products for just in time for the supply of these generators and the grain corridor continued its work, that is, grain, the food industry, and - and they continue to be exported to us, that is, with the exchange rate, there are some reasons for, uh, recommendations on the economy of the national bank to review the exchange rate or such things. there are definitely no such things, that is, the exchange rate of 36-57 is absolutely stable, interventions by months
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significantly decreases, but in fact, the market will almost soon balance itself according to this trend, and i vaguely agree with what i vaguely answered. for the stabilization of the economy, where are we implementing them now, how are we managing them, see if there are any capital expenditures, especially for local budgets, there is a surplus of about uah 70 billion this year, and it may come out by the end of the year, and at the expense of well, it’s just a transfer of funds from the personal income tax, the military receives salaries from the state budget, and these tax funds go to local budgets, that is, local budgets, the situation is not bad there. yes
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, well, this is actually a key story to say that there are some large ones, well, there are 579, there are some not very small ones, there are mortgage programs using someone else’s method. well , it is also a tool of economic stimulation to say that they are now significantly large. no, this is not true to stabilize the economy well, in principle, we have already stabilized at some level, that is, the business has adapted, according to the survey, the share of businesses that have not resumed work since february 24 is about 11% - it is not much, but if in fact what can be obtained from we get the maximum amount of international donors, well, diplomatic work is done there, and the ministry of foreign affairs and the president and the minister of finance are trying to attract more kostiv, more funds, and for now, this is how it looks like all these funds are coming in and are being spent on the social sphere on covering a- and other state expenditures not related to the defense
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complex, the entire defense complex is financed at the expense of internal business at the expense of well, yes , that is the generation of taxes of internal business, what with unemployment in ukraine, well, official data is about 33%. and on the positive side, we can see that the share of employed ukrainian migrants who left abroad or in ukraine is significantly increasing, that is, most of them found work remotely in ukraine, and the share of such people is more than those who found work at least officially or took part demand, and they earn work abroad, these people earn in ukraine, they earn in ukraine, they spend abroad. well, in fact, there are data from the ministry of economy, as i predict that in 2023 the unemployment rate will exceed 28%. well, in fact, how
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can this affect the economic situation mr. hryhoriv look at all these people, they were before that, well, if before that, unemployment there was officially about 10-11%. all these people, in principle, they are sufficiently qualified for the same enterprises of light industry, and so on, for an average time the training of the employee was up to six months, that is, the furniture industry, there is some kind of uh, node assembly, and so on, and all these people, in principle, are looking for a job, and there is also some equipment left, well, of course, part of it was destroyed, and in fact , now this component is missing the creation of the labor force of the capital well, there is the creation of some kind of product, market entry, sale of foreign goods. and this is actually five, it created a kind of cushion for economic recovery. it is simply a combination of all these elements for economic growth that is, if someone has enough optimism
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, there is enough financial stock to take these unemployed people, unite them in some kind of production, buy out someone's equipment that remained in ukraine well, this is actually now the main prospect for growth, mr. grigori - i want to ask grigory not only about ukraine and in principle about the european economy the fact is that every day we hear statements from everywhere that putin's aggression is plunging the economy of the european union into such a state of recession that how bad everything is if you conflict will it be delayed or will our partners and donors continue to make decisions about aid to ukraine , if they don't have enough money, well , look at them for sure, money, well, if the situation there wasn't so catastrophic, forecasts, well, what is called catastrophic, but now there is je twenty showed that they had predicted the growth of the
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world economy by 4.5%, and before that within the year it was 2.9, now they revised 2.7, that is, in no way , in this case, it is almost not a question of the composition if there in the eurozone even were the worst estimates of what if completely abandons russian gas, then the german economy lost about 3.5% of its gdp there, these are not some catastrophic figures of decline that would surely force them to abandon the partnership with ukraine or not well, in this format it is not unpleasant, but it there are definitely not any global things that affect the conditional structure of your expenses, i would be following a little bit now there is some international press, they generally ask the question differently, but for sure somehow deglobalization of ensuring the stability and reliability of their production chains and being confident in a trading partner, what happened with russia becomes a more global question. and in the same germany, now precisely because of russia, due to the
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increase in the cost of energy resources, this gas, well , in fact, russia started a gas war in august 2021, they now have a year-to-year broadcast of 45% , and the increase in the cost price of producers is crazy inflation for germany, the consumer inspection there is only 10%. well, that is, well, the whole of europe suffers , in fact, the main factor, yes, what i was talking about means this, and russia’s gas war, what is it there solved, well, in fact, they are dealing with high real gas prices. well, i will change the chains, they will find american gas there, so on with this in a few years. to provide, for example, housing with chips and other things, and a lot of production was completely transferred to the markets of asia. and if now, well, many countries in asia will begin to behave in a similar way as russia, because they are rebuilding the production chain and pulling it, so far from what i have been tracking
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one of the key discussions is if the production of the iphone 5 iphone is now conditionally transferred there to produce er in europe to produce another one and in mexico how much will its cost increase in order for us to be absolutely sure that we will definitely make it and it will definitely come to the usa there through in a month or in six months or in how many a-a yes, these are the issues of ensuring the reconstruction of production chains in order to be completely sure that your trading partner will start some kind of blackmail, terrorism , in fact, russia started this well, yes, it became the reason for this discussion at the world level. please tell me about the new program of cooperation with the international monetary fund in the conditions of the war in ukraine . how are these conditions changing and what is new? so far, i am looking for some results. well, in
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principle, the result is quite natural, and the imf acts as the coordinator of this financial assistance to ukraine. they, well, if not, it is not a financial program. in fact, what was discussed before, they do not advocate the main side of financing . well, the coordinator of budgets in the united states and the european union, the european commission, the european investment bank, and everyone else, and they basically give their mark of quality. i don’t know the guarantee that everything is okay in ukraine with economic policy . and it is definitely stable, that is, it does not have any internal excesses where there is some misunderstanding with the numbers, let’s say so, when we hope for positive decisions for ukraine, of course hryhoriy kuzuruza was with us on communications economist of ukraine economy outlook the first point of invincibility was operational in the liberated kherson, now the city has specially equipped tents where you can warm up, get hot drinks and
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food, charge your phone and use the internet, they told about this in the president's office, there they noted that the number of such points will grow and they will appear throughout the liberated territory of kherson oblast. well, the situation in and will improve in a few days. this was reported by the chairman of the board of ukrenergo volodymyr kudrytskyi for his in words, it will be possible if the russians do not bombard our critical infrastructure again, if there are new attacks, we will be ready to restore again and again and despite the fact that we need to prepare for possible significant interruptions in the power supply. far away at the substation, the power plant is already engaged in repairs. volodymyr kudrytskyi, chairman of the board of the ukrenergo in an interview 1+1 well, how far the situation continues now, the
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situation remained difficult, let's find out with our the next guest is anatoliy kostyum, people's deputy of ukraine, member of the committee on energy and housing and communal services. good morning, mr. anatoliy . that the generation cannot satisfy all consumers and demand at the moment, so at the same time we see a sharp drop because the frosts have already started, people are already trying harder to heat their homes and accordingly, the consumption of electricity will grow and grow, instead, i was just listening to volodymyr kudrytskyi's comment about uh, and i understand that
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this is how the energy industry works literally. visually, as a front-line city, in fact , it copes with these challenges, and taking into account all the number of shelling that was and it flew not only in the great substation, but also flew into smaller substations, let's say so, that is, critical the infrastructure suffered more, so i can say that now ukraine is not yet in a catastrophic state, everything is fine, the electricians are working well, thanks to the armed forces of ukraine, they have such an opportunity . would replace they are probably running out somewhere of course they order them of course they try to buy them all over the world but we have peculiarities of our technical system of technical characteristics well it's not that simple well we heard about
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30% of the infrastructure of the country that gives us electricity. experts and people who know how to repair networks, repair the system in general, it is quite difficult for them to get to the place of work, so if we are talking about the whole of ukraine, the way ukraine is now, it is a single energy system already uh, the last two years ago, we still had the burshtinsky energy island, but now there is only one of it, it is difficult, in fact, everywhere why because and we have a nuclear power plant, so some units do not work, and hmm, but the nuclear power plant is not maneuverable, we cannot maneuver, that is, we have now we have a small peak of consumption, well, we currently have a small
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consumption, but the peak of electricity consumption will increase already, for example, in the near future . as for heat and electricity, it will be easier, but with regard to the percentage. well, let's put it this way. well, it's a little difficult here, because literally three days ago there were statements that we no longer transmit electricity through trunk lines, but rather through power lines, and for example, much smaller ones between regional connections, therefore, accordingly, significantly it is more difficult to pump electricity from the generation to the final consumer there, for example, after 800 km, but as a percentage, we do not want to say why. because the situation is constantly changing, repairmen are really working, and i i can even say about kharkiv, which until recently was subjected to constant shelling, and now the
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substations are putting them in order and are repairing them a little bit and ordering new units. the situation with electricity is more complicated here. the situation with them is much more complicated, because if there is a hit there, if there is significant damage, then it is very, very difficult to restore the work of such and such a test piece, we can say when there may be light if there is no shelling from on the part of the russian federation. how quickly can we restore what is not working now? well, according to the statements of the government, which when they come and report to the parliament, i can say that ah, they said from a week ago, that is, a week from the moment. yes , now it is more or less stable work now in our country there is still electricity, but it is supplied hourly in
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some regions and throughout the country. if we say so, but more or less stable work, longer work, then you need at least a week, and in fact, maybe even a month. anatolia, but we are now also hearing from some, including officials and representatives of the company, regarding the fact that it is desirable for ukrainians to have a plan b, well, it means to agree with someone to go somewhere, who has a summer house there to buy a generator, and this is such a personal question for you. do you have a plan b as a citizen of ukraine ? as a people's deputy, i will say, honestly, my plan b is to gather the whole family and go to their parents and, accordingly , warm up together.
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let's say this with alternative methods, instead i will say that frankly this is now a challenge for our society, we need to unite again and again if there are multi-apartment buildings, look for exit options, you know i am the head of the friendship group of the parliament of ukraine with the parliament of slovakia. we traveled to slovakia and saw the options which they offer to their citizens, for example, there are not only generators that produce electricity, but there are also diesel heaters, for example, autonomous heaters, and this would actually be quite a good option for those houses where there is such a small e-e generator that produces heat, you can put it in the entrance or on the street or on the balcony and it has at least four exits and can heat four apartments. that is, you know, now you really need to look for any -what are the ways out and take advantage of the excitement in the market or something else, little by
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little, find the most acceptable option for yourself, but frankly, if people have the opportunity to go to their relatives, er, to all gather there in one place, then it is much easier to survive, after all, eh -is enough such a crisis moment does not join the energy rammstein and other countries we know that spain in particular handed over a batch of generators to ukraine how will you distribute to whom hmm where and what to send them to and what quantity we are talking about maybe someone else besides spain joined you know it is now being formed as far as i know applications all over the world and our cabinet of ministers collects the maximum information about what is going on in some country in some corner of the world and generators - this is good, but here we have no example, they will not solve the whole issue now we we are talking about it at the government level, there are talks about making
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such a mobile one. i would say modular power plants and heating plants, that is, there are examples in the world that can be easily dismantled here, that is, for example, there is a colleague of yours who went to germany to see just such a substation that can feed 400 houses and provide electricity more precisely , to supply heat to 500 houses and to provide electricity to approximately 400 private houses, this is what we are saying, i am saying now if you solve the issue of the private sector there, yes, such a substation unfortunately it costs half a million dollars, but the generator is also not cheap, autonomous, yes. and if such a system is to be equipped, that is, if there are outputs , but here the question is, for what money, to find support for the purchase of e-e new equipment, new modular fast e-e heating plants, power plants to connect cities and have more or less autonomous
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power supply. it is possible, but it costs huge millions. we know that lviv has set a good example and will reimburse and reimburses, as far as i know, a part of the cost up to uah 30,000 of an electric generator is a way out yes, but we will see if it is effective in time, the best ones will do something uh, gentle, we are talking about lviv yes, but there is money in lviv , because there, uh, one way or another, business works and taxes are paid and not only and what can we say about those more e southern or eastern cities that are close to military operations and there e-e average small e about a large business test he is silent for example more stopped but that means it is more difficult therefore you need to seek support not only there international monetary fund not only other countries i.e. in all countries to look for support in this direction because there really could be a crisis anatoliy, they heard you and by the way, thank you for the idea, i liked your
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story about the slovak experience, i really need to google it, this is the story anatoliy kostyuk, people's deputy of ukraine, member of the committee on energy and housing - communal services was in direct contact with us as part of a joint information marathon, the only news was the tv channel team, we are ukraine, it will be interesting from now on, our colleagues will accept the baton, you take care of yourself and of course we talk about everything important together, we talk like this together, we continue to support, work and fight on the information front, that's why glory to ukraine, we will win unconquered cities of ukraine, this cozy kherson is a pearl of the protected territories of ukraine, the city played a significant role in the creation of statehood, it became the
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southern center of ukrainian revival during the great terror, the nkvdists shot for nationalism in almost a thousand places, and the kherson leadership of the oun led by bohdan bandera actively fought against the german invaders all over the world admires the indomitability of the people of kherson, their faith in the blue-yellow flag, the whole world applauds the ukrainian defenders who proved that kherson is ukraine. on november 13, 1708 , moscow troops destroyed the hetman's capital baturyn and brutally killed all its inhabitants, about 15,000 ukrainians. the crimes of the kremlin they are
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always they say we can repeat love gives birth brave hearts brave hearts endure long brave hearts are merciful do not envy do not boast do not puff up do not behave rudely do not seek only my own do not rush to anger do not think evil do not rejoice in untruth but rejoice in the truth bear all things believe in all things hope all things bear all things brave hearts always defeat the evil of family separation by war i just want home
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calls from the trenches forgive me love me but i have to protect the land a short text message everything is fine let's keep it kiss my daughter for me she has grown so much in these 5 months they are very worried that he simply does not recognize me and hope for a meeting i miss my father i hope we will return soon limit data hugs hope for victory victoria ideal oleg reshetnyaka november 23 at 21:30 in marathon only news

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