it's cool to follow what literature was shown that was found in the kyiv-pechersk lavra, there are such interesting ones. i would say the documents were also a discovery for me that kyiv was a base for them in terms of intelligence even in the tsarist times, that is, in the 17th century , and in fact the work special services can be underestimated . the russian federation, both now and the soviet union, and even in the distant past, was actually famous for the power of its special structures . stalin knew about it faster than truman knew because he had integrated two very loyal agents inside him. and about the cambridge five, the so-called kimofield, and you can talk for a very long time. well, there are huge cross-human moments, there is a huge work of special structures. well, really it is probably good news that this cleansing has begun. has it begun? will

it be as fast as we would like? well, in my opinion, it is a difficult question. why? to slip through the cracks to one's own advantage and here is actually an incredibly complex dichotomy, we are a legal country, we listen to the laws that we don't have laws and here, unfortunately, understanding the most fundamental philosophy of the enemy that for them there are no rules and for us there are rules, this is incredibly difficult because an honest person is always loses a game of cards, let's say with any swindler, but it's always more difficult that way. that's why we need to prepare, mr. peter. i know that you don't like unspoken forecasts and prognosticators, but in fact, the british minister of defense ben wallace advised in your opinion, the ukrainian army will be able to maintain its dynamics in the winter under these current conditions

. of course, petro chernyk is a military expert. my questions are purely military. well , the dynamics are now complicated by weather conditions and the situation at the camp itself, because everything pulls into one place and well, the guys say extremely difficult conditions, i will say mine. i have always been honest with my audience and i will be honest in the future. in my opinion, we are entering the second phase of strategic fire balance. in the first phase, we were inside from may to the beginning of september, that is, we did not have the opportunity for large-scale counteroffensive actions, nor could the enemy move forward until the successful kharkiv operation and then in november the equally successful kherson operation, but again, soberly analyzing the combat, i still come to the conclusion that we are entering again into this zone of fire equilibrium, and apparently it will last

until spring. although there are such very interesting, very interesting sayings in military strategies, war is a way of deception, and whoever deceives the enemy better will have the dynamics on the battlefield, no one saw the kharkiv operation, but it has developed now in relation to the weather , the dynamics of combat operations can have two aspects, if the ground is relatively hard, that is, the ground will be frozen, then such is the logic of combat operations that is now most likely to be preserved, the tank weighs 39 43 t heavy artillery installation 2sd 19:42 t a bmp apc in the range of 10-12 t if the ground is viscous heavy equipment will not be able to move, then we will go into protracted long-term artillery duels and in terms of quality, we are an order of magnitude, i.e. 10 times better, however, in terms of numbers, the enemy outnumbers us by at least twice and money, and therefore the

balance is our qualitative volleys that reach the goal on their quantitative volleys that do not allow us to move forward, although once again the concentration of forces and resources is described by carl von clausen and some sudden unexpected operation it may happen , we are waiting for you, peter, regarding crimea. i have already quoted the ukrainian president, he gave an interview in fanning shaltimes to our colleagues and said that a decision that does not involve the deoccupation of the peninsula is a waste time and there is no need to write at all, you should not waste time, instead, the felmenschaltimes write that some western partners are worried that any action by ukraine to return crimea by military means could lead to a dangerous escalation on the part of moscow, in particular the use of nuclear weapons. well , our military expert was included in us who constantly said that well, from the point of view of introducing the tactics of the war strategy, where occupying crimea is a much

higher priority and it is easier to do than deoccupying donetsk and luhansk regions and for in the opinion of golce, this should become a priority task, and donetsk and luhansk can be postponed for the future. what is your attitude to the possible deoccupation of crimea, will it not really cause some, well, not panic, yes, but some concerns of western partners who may not give we have weapons for this de-occupation. i'm sorry, well, once again, i will steal my point of view, my view, my view, there is no other way to liberate crimea as a military, i simply do not exist in nature, it's all fairy tales that diplomats decide something, in general, there is a very it is a distorted illusion that there is some kind of diplomacy. let us often finally say that diplomats are mediators . they are mediators. history knows genius diplomats. let’s say that in the days of napoleon talier there were

such people, but they are units. they only convey information from one center of power to another center of power. crimea will either be liberated by military force. things, we ukrainians have in our historical package the colossal successful operation of the unr army colonel petro bulobochan, 1918. it is a pity that it did not end with the success that almost ended or the threat by force. that is, our military fist, our hammer over crimea will be so powerful that the enemy comes to the conclusion that it is better to return, but there is a nuance, i really do not know when it will happen and no one knows , uh, the situation can change like a circle, well , quickly, we will not to keep up with it from the point of view of the tactical situation in general, the group's thoughts are rational, that is, to clamp down on the crimean side and cut off, first of all, the logistics for the southern and eastern groups, but the question arises here, a long distance is already needed, primarily aviation because

naval means to dismantle the personnel we do not have, at the same time, the philosophy of delivering point strategic and numerical missile strikes to the post-war infrastructure crimea has the right to life and it is gradually realizing partly by the coefficient of increasing success in our favor in the overall result, this war will not be completed in another way as a military man, i said the great ustym churchill, our goal is peace, but the way to it lies exclusively through force, and in our case, only through force, and how do you feel about this scenario that first of all, we need to focus on crimea, not luhansk, donetsk. everything can happen, but i will remind you once again about the path of deception, it is very important who outplays whom strategically and for whom the prerequisites will be better and if there is one nuance, i am not the first time i am talking to you and not only with you and with i don't really like to detail the front on your platform. well, it's terrible. why? because the

enemy hears our every word and i have bitter experience in this direction, that's why we don't ask in detail. next to the peace talks, the general staff of the armed forces of ukraine addressed the belarusian people the day before, let's look at this piece, and then your comments citizens of the republic of belarus special services of the russian federation are preparing provocations on your territory for the purpose of their terrorist attacks, there may be objects of critical infrastructure, including a nuclear power station on the island of our country remember the accident at the chernobyl nuclear power plant in 1986, the consequences were terrible for people's lives and health , ecology, economy in the entire region, today russia allows itself to be blackmailed. the whole world is threatened by the use of nuclear facilities and

technologies. under someone else's name, all this is used with one goal, by any means to drag belarus into a war with ukraine blood and hatred will divide our people. i don't know if it makes any sense at all to appeal to the people of belarus, eh, or something he can decide to somehow influence his government. how do you see this situation, in my opinion, there is no point in appealing to the people there, the people are completely, as it were it is correct to say localized. the fact that the belarusians gave an impetus in 2020 is already an incredible amount for them, but everything lukashenko managed to do in order to block these processes of potential movements

, he did it, we must remember the most important rule of any uprising, the uprising, the people are rising, the people are rising . i apologize, but the people absolutely need leaders, and these leaders are absolutely necessary for this moment. unfortunately , they are localized, and new ones are not yet visible. this is the first moment, the second moment. let us be clear and let's soberly and honestly say that the concept of belarus no longer exists, there is no such country, belarus is occupied by the russian federation, where the greasy puppet regime of lukashenko is preserved and lukashenko is actually fighting only for his physical life in a sharp nkvd knife is attached to his throat, the question is whether this throat will be cut, i am speaking figuratively, because his heart can hurt and something like that, somewhere in the sanatorium, he can get weak, suffocate , yes, anything can happen, but in fact, he is fanatically fighting for his life, but let's imagine the

situation, for example how do you say that something will happen to his heart or head or something else and he won't become lukashenko in one day and what's next, it just seems to me that in this situation, well, in the current situation, it's better for us for ukraine. that lukashenko would still be alive while the war continues, because if he is not physically alive now , the situation for us will become even worse, do n't you think they share this point of view? in my opinion, lukashenko is much smarter than putin and he soberly realizes that being bloody oneself in the country is one thing, but to become a war criminal, that is, because if there is already a full-fledged military ground operation, because belarus is in the last war with us, from their side, missile strikes are also carried out on our native lviv, but nevertheless, the obviousness of the evidence is important, that is, for lukashenka, the transition of the land line is even to the red and the black line, he automatically becomes a

war criminal, he is aware of this and it looks like he does not want to do it and is doing everything possible to restrain the land operation, will this land operation be well, unfortunately, i can’t say exactly in percentages, in my opinion 50x50, that’s not it. i don’t have. i don’t have a full concept of whether there is a certain potential of up to 15,000 armed people ready to attack a mixed belarusian-russian contingent, and there are 15,000 - that’s a lot a full-fledged mechanized division or three brigades or 15 tactical battalion groups, will they come to us, they will not have overflows, because in 9 months in the fortification part, we have already built such a kind of manergame line there, it will be very, very difficult for them at the beginning without entering chornobylsk the zone was not from there, but they did not achieve some kind of strategic parity, despite the fact that at that time we were actually caught off guard

. they will make decisions that are radically different from us, what is rational for us is absolutely irrational for them and vice versa and the collective chornobayivka and zmiiny island and my favorite example is the pontoon across the siversky dinets where they guided the pontoon five times in one place within a day well homostatism yes he can’t do that, he ca n’t do that, but they do it, but well, i’m sorry, it’s just really funny, like you, and the probability of repeating land operations, uh, in other areas, not only near chernobyl and not only from the side of belarus. i mean sumshchina, in particular everything anything can happen in sunzi there is a very good saying for this case, i love this famous chinese thinker very much, you don't have to wait for the enemy not to attack, the enemy will attack without fail , you have to do everything possible that when he attacks, the price for him was unacceptable and in part

i will emphasize the fortifications for the second time. everything possible has been done, or will it pull back our forces and means, or will it be difficult, painful and annoying, but the course of the war will not turn for them, in order to turn the course of the war , at least another million must be put to the bayonet of ice, at least. this is a difficult issue even for them , given their colossal mobilization resources. returning to the issue of belarus, you mentioned that such a state does not exist at the moment. as well as how to instil this idea in belarus so that lukashenko is a collective belarus , if a collective belarus is lukashenko, there will be no lukashenko, there will be a new lukashenko, the same puppet or the same totalitarian russia before putin and the country is the same and similar, is it possible under what conditions at all? is this already a fait

accompli, it is part of russia? all bye, the history of the state of belarus is over, in my opinion , no, they still have the potential for national growth and renaissance, again the same the year 2020 itself really had all the signs of national restoration, that is, truly national, that is, what are their real flags, what are their relatives with whom they were as an independent state, plus we will remind them that they have a rather long and historical stage of existence in the european space and we, together with them, have the experience and, together with poland, of being in this so-called lithuanian principality, that is, they have much better historical ideas in terms of building some of their own institutions of power, and the most important thing is that it is not an imperial people, it is non-imperial, it is enslaved, this is true their national consciousness is strongly suppressed. but i think that as soon as the moscow nedo empire breaks up into

15 20 states, it is inevitable, the question is only when this happens that the belarusians will receive their historical a chance it happened is a difficult question i will give an honest answer it will happen when the chinese and americans draw up the concept of j2 podillia sphere of influence and divide this great russian bear but everything here is very complicated why because we missed you know what we missed in the russian-ukrainian war we missed the birth the red emperor was not seen in the city, he arrested his predecessor live on the air. this is very serious, who understands the philosophy of the chinese government of the times, there was nothing like that, the whole balance was inside of the communist party is crossed out today it is already wearing camouflage it has matured to be the emperor of the world it has matured in fact it cannot be underestimated china is maturing to quit so well, again, the war is already underway as a phenomenon it is already underway as i have already entered

, they are preparing, that is, the rehearsal is underway everything can be the third world well in my opinion, the fuses in part of the third world war were removed in ukraine, i will explain why the final poznań yalta system of international relations was crossed out in one sentence. seconds liknep first international system 1648 westphalian as a result of religious warriors second 1915 as a result of napoleonic warriors third versailles as a result of the first world war fourth as a result of the current one which was destroyed as a result of the second world war logical question is simple without emotional and the fifth will be born in a different way yes, it is inevitable that all fuses are removed, it does not work, it is a dead organization , the only question is how many dragons and eagles are they capable of, because these are now the two main potentials that will inevitably come together in a

confrontation, the question of what nature it will be , the confrontation is working so far and will continue to work. and i personally reject all too much skepticism. there is only one problem that needs to be solved. i think it will be solved. this problem is absolutely veto for such micro- empires, because it is also a micro-interior. as hungarians, they did not have the right to influence the general philosophy of the great democracy, i think that, unfortunately, it simply will not happen quickly, but i think that in a few months, maybe a few years, it will definitely be resolved, it must be very thank you for coming, it is extremely interesting to listen to petrochernyk, military expert, candidate of political sciences, associate professor, please come to us, it is important now that professional, intelligent voices sound, i am not sofa experts, so that you and i understand not only what is happening now, but understand it from a historical perspective and some prospects were already built on the basis of history, not only that here and now we

see. well, heat guns and generators are going to kyiv and to ukrainian cities from different parts of the world, in particular, the city council in partnership with the latvian charitable fund from the donv is called , it held a tender for the purchase of 84 generators of electric and heat guns for kyiv. this was announced by the ambassador of ukraine to latvia, oleksandr mishchenko, after the start of shelling of the ukrainian energy system by the russians in october - the harsh city council allocated €200,000 from its own budget for the purchase energy district well, according to the results of the tender, this charitable foundation purchased 84 diesel generators with a capacity of 5 to 100 kw, as well as 100 diesel heat seals with a capacity of 20-25 kw. the first batch, which consists of the launch of heat guns will arrive in the capital of ukraine next week, congratulations from kyiv, the executive director of the economic discussion club, oleg penzen, is already with

us . these same generators are also called five different names for which there is now a crazy demand, how does it all affect our economy, well, look, according to estimates by the energy industry, direct losses of uah 70 billion have been caused to the energy industry system of ukraine, and you and i understand that the occupier is hitting on the distribution. that is, the generation itself is functional to one degree or another, nuclear power plants can work, but if you do not take the generated power from the generation, you will be forced shut down those er reactors simply because there will be nowhere to dump the energy, but actually this is the biggest problem, because er, the

occupier is talking about transformer substations, that is, he is hitting on the distribution and the fact that today we have everything in kiev itself this is precisely the result strikes on the distribution, that is, in principle, we have to understand that generation exists, but only the distribution can bring the produced energy to the consumer, as far as i understand , restoration work continues actively for 2 hours. now they give electricity in kyiv. well, they also gave us a little bit, so you can actually see that i'm on the air. so we're very glad that we gave you that you're on the air with us p- well, the only moment , the only moment, the problem is that i turn it off, and it's a little bit. so, it's tiring, but you have to understand what is the reason for this is completely understandable and the reaction people, this is how i communicate with my colleague in the house, all the last ones, well, the reaction of people is very clear and everyone

understands the reasons . - eh, i think that they received the absolutely opposite reaction, the person is as united as possible and as decorated as possible, well, that is, he will start talking about any negotiations, this will be the last uh-uh statement of this political figure and i am absolutely sure of this and please tell me, nevertheless, returning to from business to production to the technological process , according to your assessment, it has stopped. it seems to me that now what percentage of all ukrainian production can work in conditions of own generation of light , meaning generators, well, mobile ones, yes, in the absence of a centralized supply of light constantly, what percentage of the ukrainian economy can work in a similar way, please well, first of all, you need

to understand that e-e generation is from a diesel generator is much more expensive, that is, you need to understand that e-e enterprises that e-e work to provide for themselves generation from diesel generators is simply much more expensive, we have already heard that sorcevo metal stopped its work due to power supply problems, that is, huge plants, including metallurgical ones, that work, they cannot do without diesel generators they can there, completely different power is needed , yes. what do you see? a diesel generator can ensure the existence of local industry. it is possible to ensure the operation of the food processing industry of bakeries, that is, those things where, firstly, products are needed every day, secondly , it is not so energy-intensive, and thirdly

, it is usually a small enterprise that provides, let's say, the local population with its products within the limits of a certain description , that is, it is necessary to understand that these enterprises will work as they have been working and they are owned by diesel generators, their generation is local, it will somehow save large powerful enterprises without a centralized power supply, they will definitely not be able to work, at least in that sense worked before this, therefore it is extremely important to restore the effectiveness of the ukrainian e-e energy system, in your opinion, then it should not be rewritten now to make changes to the state budget for the next year, taking into account the fact that nullsoval arcelor also managed such large enterprises. i think that this is not the only enterprise which is now forced to be closed and when there will be an improvement in the energy supply none of us knows what to do with the

money from the budget receipts for the next year just look at the negotiations with the mission of the international monetary fund, they gave their forecast, a revised forecast of eh instead of eh 2.6 they first said 3.2, then 2.6 they say eh growth of the ukrainian economy for the next year no more than one percent, despite the fact that in this this year, we will fall by 33%, actually, such a decrease in the expectation of possible gdp growth will undoubtedly reduce the revenue part of the state budget, i do not think that the expenditure part will change , that is, 2.6 million will remain, maybe instead of 1.3 million revenues we will receive them less, that is, significantly more the value of the macro-financial assistance that our partners provide to us is still increasing. unfortunately

, according to preliminary data, the international monetary fund and next year the international monetary fund will start a monitoring mission in ukraine, that is, it will not give money, but it will be present to monitor this is a negative , well, in my opinion, such a forecast, but uh, the fact that 18 billion euros of aid to the european union will be, the european parliament supported uh, the proposal of the european commission for 18 billion is quite a big step forward. so we have hope, which means billions of those 30 seven 36 that we need, that is, in fact, half, a little less than half, the european union will give the last, the americans will give, and i am absolutely sure of this , because we heard from er in certain well, let's say so , er, clear positions of er representatives of the american administration regarding support therefore, even if there will be

a lower level of e-e in the gdp in ukraine, the growth of the gdp, instead of the actual investment of the state budget, i think that we receive the necessary funds from our partners. reduce our macroeconomic indicators, is there not such a direct influence on your opinion of the international monetary fund? that is, at least -1% of gdp. that is , well, we have to understand that if the gdp there is close to four trillion, well, that is, count 1% - that is roughly 40 billion, yes well, count there, well, this is just the first approach to those specific losses that we have a blackout ... you are absolutely right

there were no frosts, and as a result, we are saving our own gas in the warehouses, there is no problem for now. look, if there is a warm winter in europe, the price will go down, the europeans will come very close to setting the maximum limit price for gas - it is 250 € per thousand per 1000 m³ and actually eh. let's see how it will be implemented from day to day. we are waiting for the establishment of the maximum price for oil . somewhere at the level of 55-6 dollars, the color of the brand it will probably be like that, well, let's see again, again, this is such an internal insight, well, let's see how far it will go further, those restrictions

will definitely stabilize the domestic market of europe. if suddenly there is not enough gas in ukraine, no one has canceled the virtual reverse, well, that is, we will definitely be able to do something buy and objectively it will be like that but i think that we will pass without it why because, according to the gas balance, a third of our gas was actually imported through the ukrainian industry, in fact, it was the main consumer for the domestic market. there are 12 billion cubic meters of annual housing and communal services, in fact, the utility industry, in fact, this volume is completely covered by the profits of mining. so i think that the more so at the moment, what has already been saved is already in storage, it will be enough for i am much more concerned about the heating season, to be honest, the issue of electricity supply rather than gas, everything will be fine with the gas supply. and all of you

have problems with electricity. well, you saw it. as soon as the electricity is still bad, the water is gone. the heat is still bad, the sewage works, well, that is, they work without electricity, so what about gasoline in connection with the generator, which is now dynamic, what will happen to gasoline and diesel, because i mean the price. but for now, i think nothing so serious will happen, although look at it this is probably a peculiarity of the ukrainian mentality. there have been no serious hits to any oil storage, we have a surplus today on the market, nevertheless, as soon as there were those shellings, there were queues at the gas stations, for which i do not understand, er, people began to choose bread en masse why, that is, the question. the pickup is normal, everything works, well, you understand, it's just such a psycho