and drink only the necessary amount of water, your concern warms better than a cup of the strongest tea, we will overcome the winter together, the government created a program, there is a job that helps ukrainians get money for their own business . for the job of your dreams, you just have an idea because the state gave you the documents and supported you, you work for victory, there is a job, work in ukraine, good and peaceful morning to everyone who is watching us or listening to us on the radio, the marathon is on the air the only news is us ukraine on the clock 5 in the morning in

the studio victoria small world on bohdan mashay and we will continue to talk about where and how to survive the most difficult winter in ukraine there is still a threat of an enemy attack on critical and energy infrastructure objects in home chats they are spreading information about what in the event of a blackout, the work of the sewage system will stop, people are urged to leave the villages if possible, foreign mass media published information that during the winter period, part of kyiv residents can temporarily to move to the suburbs of the capital, in particular, the mayor of ivano-frankivsk, advice from the townspeople to leave the city, our viktoria dmytrenko talked with a townswoman and visited the village, using specific examples, we compare and calculate how much it costs to spend the winter in the village and in the city, so when the frosts come, it will be very cold. we are all dressed a pile of blankets in the village of nastya on the 21st floor, the heat almost

does not last too long when the whole house remains without electricity, she will tell and show how she lives under such conditions . meanwhile, nastya furnishes a city apartment for the cold olya is also preparing for a difficult winter outside the city in a village 40 km from kyiv, the insulation is just ordinary , rural, it is covered with cellophane and that’s it, well, if it were warmer, the windows were covered with carpets on the floor and a gas boiler that works without electricity , olya liked this house a few years ago, she rents it for uah 5,000 you can live in the capital, but in the village nowadays there are many more advantages, if there is no light, you have gas, and you can collect water in the yard, a hole is dug here, and such a hiding place is made for the pump, well, accordingly, if there is no electricity, then it does not work, but the manual column works, its water supplies for him, nastya is the only trouble, there is no light, the boiler does not work, so hot

water is often caught at night, i have an alarm clock, i get up , i wash at night, peru things too, by the way, at night, it is not easy with cooking nastya, for which most new buildings with electricity buy groceries for long-term storage, the other day i ordered an alternative stove, look with gas cylinders. such a beauty, well, the class says olya from the dimmer. this is currently the most expensive item of expenditure in the village, in order not to turn on the boiler at full power, it is stocked with warm things and for the sake of economy, the neck itself, that’s all, i sewed everything, i wore warm clothes, it means myself. as they say , nastya, my mother from germany , also stocked up on warm things, because she knows that we are very cold. preparing for blankets, the whole family threw themselves on my blanket because i have a very cold apartment with our whole

family, the rooms without light are illuminated with lanterns and candles, i have such flashlights, i have such flashlights, and i have such pills for all rooms candles, well, it is enough for about 2 hours from the additional costs of the townspeople, two heaters, when the lights are turned on, they sometimes additionally heat the house with them and, but he jokes, he has a better living alternative, three- fat, this cutie should have been milady well, for milady , she remained a cutie, and the weasel is the most important kitty in what a world, these heaters keep me warm regularly and wake me up, it’s just as hard, it’s hot already, like in a city apartment, it’s charging on the battery, it’s a kitty bun, if the cat isn’t warm, warm up, says nastya, and it helps her to relieve stress sport, i have dumbbells, i have a barbell, i have pancakes, a bench for meditation, each of the heroines considered both options for living in the city and the village. nastya thinks that her country house of 130 m² draws

a lot of utility bills, and the generator that is there for maintenance draws at least 1,000 uah per day , and the utility bill is expensive, although i have already counted over a thousand dollars for preparing for winter in a capital apartment. power bank 1-5,000 uah, heaters for 2,000. she says she started spending less on groceries. she jokes sometimes she is just too lazy to go downstairs without an elevator buys a lot of provisions and olya has her own from the garden, it is not cheap, she gets gas from one and a half to four thousand in frosty months, she saves a lot on candles so far, she buys not much and has stocks of warm clothes, although she admits that nowadays there is a rush for a house outside the city, so prices can vary greatly depending on the living conditions, twice as compared with the last season, firewood also became more expensive from one and a half thousand per cubic meter, so what we have costs for a small modest hut will be 8-9 thousand hryvnias, this is only rent and gas, the same amount is currently being asked for a one-room apartment in kyiv, but if

add here additional costs for alternative heating and lighting, add a few thousand hryvnias viktoriya dmytrenko vyacheslav vendychanskyi and maksym khlopatov we are ukraine marathon the only news is a difficult winter, it seems that what will happen not only for our daily life but for our economy because the national bank will worsen the gdp growth forecast everything precisely because of these massive attacks on our infrastructure by the russians, the head of the nbu, andriy pishnyi, informed about this edition of force, and he noted that the damage to the energy infrastructure already exceeds the october estimates of the nbu therefore, a recalculation is simply necessary, moreover, due to the risks of further shocks, the impact may turn out to be much more powerful than predicted in the previous forecast, and new data will be released within a month, but our broadcast is joined by expert hryhoriy kuzuruza, this is an economist, ukraine, an economist , mr. hryhoriyu's out bow good morning good morning, mr. hryhoriyu when they say that forecasts

of economic growth of gdp will deteriorate, so what are the prospects, how much exactly see the forecast of the imf now plus the national bank plus four percent the most pessimistic forecast on the market at the moment is dragon captain -5%. er see we also revised the forecast well down from seven and a half percent to two and seven percent a-a key point electricity supplier in average electricity supply consumption in a-a-a october 2002 she said 65% of the level of 2021 after there well, taking into account the massive shelling on the 22nd there, yes, until the previous dates, there were declines, there were

catastrophic declines up to 33%. if we still take november, the situation is not so critical, it is 60% of the level of 2022, that is, in principle. well, to say that there are some, well, extremely sharp status of living electricity, well, if this is not true, or well, that is, it is 10%. recession okay, can we say that there is a direct correlation between the decline in electricity consumption and gdp ? well, many people switched to generators, many people, uh, somehow there, well, transferred teams in some to other cities, to other countries, not the

eastern infrastructure, that is, here is my correlation that the energy supply has definitely fallen exactly fell exactly this correlation is zero there is no absolutely direct you these data will be able to be evaluated at least in a few weeks this revision towards the deterioration of the forecast what does it mean for the lives of us ordinary ukrainians literally a few percent if until well there before that the official forecast was 4 % now well, let it be closer to the national to the imf in 1%. well, it’s still 3% , they’re quite floating, it’s about the physical gdp , the physical volume of goods and services that are created , that is, there is also the exchange rate, so let’s talk about pluses, the exchange rate is right now, during the blackout

, during power outages, there is no point in reviewing a or whether or whether it is or returning to the floating exchange rate. well, with a high probability, we will remain at 36 57 e-e 36-57 for experience for a long period well, at least until the restoration of energy supply to the previous period. in fact, it is until the end of the heating season for sure, but what does this mean for ukraine as a whole? of the president's office, they do 100% of the work they did, maybe 200% there. we are attracting positions, forming a borrowing club, our budget, in principle, provides for 35+5 dollars - this is

borrowed for the next year, no one has reviewed the budget, ah, it is formed from external e-e borrowings and 2.5-3 billion dollars of borrowings in on average per month, next year we will attract . it can fluctuate. it’s absolutely okay. the total sums have not yet been reviewed. they correspond to the state of mass shelling . i understand correctly that this forecast is about deterioration. it is built on the basis of the state of the energy system that is there for today or does it directly foresee a complete blackout? i don’t know the details in the

forecast of the national bank and the imf, you said about your forecast, that’s why you assumed consumption after all, well, the legacy of electricity consumption from 65% that year to 60 in november, that is, what if the situation more worse than it can turn out, see even the description for 10%. a-ah you well there are days there and yes i call this figure that on the worst day it was approximately 33-35%, eh energy consumption from the level of 2021 a-ah the economy continued to work anyway, what are the main industries that are filled agro-industry plus the public sector the military sector and defense, these industries are the main ones that fill the state

budget and are the main tax payers . they are made so, well, so, they are melted, and they are exported, ore, metals, on, on, for export , military wages, how are they paid, and are they paid, because it is important for the service sector, well. a significant part of the gdp and was not formed per ton, a significant part of the square , that is, it is quite moderate there, up to 25%. which , even with spasm, they are amortized, that is, in principle, it is possible to survive, these are not unpleasant numbers. well, of course, the revision of the forecast

there is our sms with half past two and seven dragan capital up to -5 - these are unpleasant numbers well, in principle , they are quite understandable, you can survive them, mr. grigoriyu and how will the shelling of the facilities of the energetics affect the price tags in stores because the company is in order to survive and to work and function in these conditions, you need to buy a generator, which nowadays is not cheap, and you also have to buy fuel to fill it up, and that’s exactly the point of the plekauts. they showed that it is impossible to predict their influence, well, it’s impossible. in certain months, ah, and in this case, it completely depends on inflation from the exchange rate. in fact, this is imported inflation, and in certain weeks, interventions fell from there - 700-800 million, which were this week, and they fell there by minus 180 - 200 in the best months - they

recovered a little to minus 400, if not i'm wrong, but millions per month in this, well, in general, the interventions of the national bank in november, they fell to minus one and a half billion for -27, which were in september, october, that is, if it did not sound in parallel with the interventions of the nbu during the period of passed shelling, well, the period of the block-out, they are from below i.e point one in business is less demand for consumer imports because it is not clear what will happen in shopping centers , it is not at all clear what will happen to the behavior of consumers , e.e., the playout and then in the winter, point two is the re-, well, the re-configuration of agro and agro-export from motor vehicles after all the grain border. if earlier it left by truck and was paid

in cash or in some other form, but in cash for correct delivery, now in fact the farmer receives the full amount. account from one preservation of the grain corridor, it is significant, well, the situation at the interbank has improved for the sake of what is now the basis for the exchange rate , is it in the upward direction? enterprises in a certain segment just there, well, obedience and yes. in fact, this is this, this is only formulas, yes, it is growing. is it possible to fully

transfer it to the guard of the consumer? no, that is if you don’t have an increase, make a fee for the average dnrh, then there is no way for you to fully transfer the increase in the cost of the cafe there to the lack of illumination or another establishment, the name of the store, yes, this is the increase in the cost of the business, which will not be fully transferred to the consumer in terms of income citizens, is there any correlation between blackouts and how quickly they will grow or, unfortunately, fall, as we have been watching lately, look honestly there is no because before the war 5%. finding well about 5% income of the personal income tax was formed by the military. we know more than 30 certain areas, there are 25 increasing incomes of the personal income tax, well, in general, payments to the military are increasing. that is, this is a key indicator in

our economy now, which is 30% plus. and this is the military sector, if the payments of the right-wing military are growing, well , those or are there offensives or competition offensives or are we doubling some territories and the economy fund is growing from wages well, so far, mr. grigory, well, so far, so far, according to your calculations, in general, how much will be needed time after the war in order to put our economy on its feet at least to the point where it was a difficult question, look, you see in us about 55%, e gdp was formed by private property 200 billion then 30 - this is the private sector and now privatbank, well, in different months, it is possible to estimate a 55 drop, well, on average, exactly, well, twice

, unfortunately, the public sector, on the contrary, has grown, on the contrary, its specific value, from the point of view of enterprises, that is, the private revenue of private enterprises has fallen approximately twice. is there a real possibility there reanimation of the sharp recovery in 2023, and it is possible from the second half of the year, if active hostilities are stopped , that is, this is not my forecast, it is my forecast, there is actually a structure and this forecast will be new, what, well, active hostilities will end, it is included in the forecast of the ministry of economy and in the forecast of the national bank and the forecast of the majority of investment banks ah and in our forecast. that is, we foresee a recovery only according to the words of budanov in the second yard, well, in the second half of 2023, this is objectively, unfortunately, we are forced to tie ourselves to these military forces. well, there in

factors to these military statements hryhoriy thank you hryhoryy corn, economist ukraine economy, he was with us on a direct video link well, i remind you of the national bank that the forecast is that our economy will fall stronger than expected due to the fact that the russians are committing terrorist acts and carrying out strikes on our energy infrastructure, nevertheless since december 1, the subsistence minimum in ukraine has increased, this time by less than uah 100, respectively, the minimum and maximum pension have been revised and the payments tied to it alimony, social assistance, but already next year, the state will not give even these pennies, why and are ukrainians ready for this? iryna kondratyuk found those who lived even more modestly during the nine months of the war, see 1,684 hryvnias per month, and this is for the able-bodied, for those who are not, even less subsistence minimum in ukraine depends on what drives and

who you are on this money lives spring truth yellow flag of ukraine waited 9 months of occupation passenger function attentive and careful car pensioner oksana khomenko from kherson is finally not under cannonading of the occupiers well, what are you? i was trading in the market. i realized everything is on fire. i am a soldier. the equipment flew away. i sent it to the newspapers a long time ago . the street is directing a machine at you . i will also pay you. i will give you all the money i have. get out of here, because i understood that the most valuable

thing in the occupation is completely different, the cheapest price that we can pay is money, yes, it must be earned , but money is paper and not so much a lot to a person and it is necessary to spend money on food and everything, or to squeeze out a woman who grew and sold vegetables, fruits, eggs, because the occupiers did not take away the vegetable garden and the economy from the ukrainians, people today are maximally transitioning to the introduction of organic farming, everything from potatoes , they are trying to somehow survive despite the physical receipt of those money on which it is impossible to live on 800, so why then this amount is called the subsistence minimum in the european union and the states, it is an indicator to which the state brings the income of its citizens if a person earns less in ukraine instead, the living wage is performed by a completely different mouth, and as just sure, uh, well, what indicator is used to calculate administrative fines, court fees, various administrative cures, salaries,

social payments, there are about 200 of them, which living wage entails. before the war, we worked on untying the social the minimum amount of fines of various charges and to really make the subsistence minimum an objective, realistic amount that meets the needs of today, but a full-scale war froze the ability to pay ukrainians have more, because in order to cover the difference between what we have and what we want, we have to pour approximately uah 16,000 billion into the state treasury, however, they are nowhere to be taken, the economist explains that all social expenditures are financed exclusively by the calculation of borrowings, so the state is currently twisting itself as best as it can and oksana khomenko he also does not complain about the payments because he knows the price of freedom and already in the spring he says he will traditionally plant a vegetable garden kherson black earth iryna kondrachuk we ukraine marathon only news freedom

has always lived in the hearts of ukrainians for 300 years the empire is trying to destroy us with slavery, censorship is its weapon, but even in the darkest times freedom is the light that defeats the darkness 300 years since the birth of hryhoriy skovoroda, in case of a long absence of light and heat, points of invincibility have been created, these are places of safety for all ukrainians , there is always light, heat, water, a first-aid kit internet , mobile communication and everything for mothers with children, security places are located at railway stations, regional and district administrations, city and village councils, schools, kindergartens, head offices, emergency services stations

go to the website nezlamnist.gov.ua and find the nearest point of unbreakability in case of lack of light and heat, the state will take care , let's defeat the darkness together, the rules of two, turn on a powerful electrical device, turn off the equivalent, instead, simple rules of a warm country, let's defeat the winter together,

but nobody was good for feeding a child even before school, i soon found a man on the internet who agreed to shelter me for a whole month for luck, it was only then that he began to want money, you don’t pay me , give me a little, but he quickly found me i can pay you back, it’s true, i couldn’t for so long, they took advantage of you, don’t be afraid, call 5-27 free of charge and confidentially. good morning, dear ukrainians. the nationwide telethon is the only news. we are ukraine and we work for you. nataliya humenyuk, the head of the operational command of the south, told about this on the air of the we ukraine channel, she does not rule out that in this way the occupiers can also exert psychological pressure on

ukrainians, but it is still not advisable to ignore the air warning signals, because the enemy can launch cruise missiles at ukrainian cities at any moment. the enemy's ship formation has currently increased, despite the fact that the storm is intensifying in the sea, the windy situation is increasing a little, the ship formation consists of 18 oh units, among which four launchers are equipped with 20 20 four caliber missiles and they are ready for use about the intentions of the russians to carry out such a strike. what kind of strike could it be? well , we will talk about the situation at the front with our the next guest is ihor romanenko , reserve lieutenant general and mr. romanenko

's military expert. what ms. humenyuk said in view of the information we know today. how do you think this strike could be carried out and how massive it could be, unfortunately, the russians have opportunities from this there is, accordingly, analysis that shows that there are up to 250 rockets left, which were used more than the types of rockets in those missile strikes that were inflicted from the previous one, and the question is how many strikes, if such a mason has up to 100 rockets, then accordingly, how many will be enough. but i do not think that they will now be on the - strike as hard as possible. because , er, they need pressure on ukraine, on the

military-political leadership, on the citizens, so that they, in turn, put pressure on their leadership to force these so-called negotiations, in fact, to legitimize the capture under time for a large-scale attack, because it can be strikes from 50 to 100 missiles, so far they have not given up on this kind of strikes, although we see quite strong pressure from our allies, primarily the united states of america, on the russians from about this, but here there is such a big, high-level political game, in which people like china are already joining with their approaches. well, some of the most developed countries

in europe, which have weapons and therefore, are connected to the ses by giving us for example, uh, airplanes uh anti-aircraft missile systems with the capabilities of anti -missile defense destruction of the corresponding and many other things we have seen and related to the situation in poland incidents we have seen it in the situation related to the provision of the patriot to us as well as aircraft as in the spring and even now, it should be remembered that then the poles were even driven to ramstein, which means that it is not necessary to hear 29 which was extremely necessary then, but during the offensive operations carried out by our troops in certain parts of the front, it is even more necessary in this, that is, in the battle of armored