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tv   [untitled]    December 8, 2022 3:00am-3:30am EET

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we were told to line up and we stood by the window like that. the younger children and i were thrown away by a wave. and the older one had his jacket stuck in the glass. the children still shudder when they remember those events. they are afraid of the word "station" for them. they will leave when this channel ended, the virus, the coronavirus , this war began, this is how bohdan describes his life, he saw the war up close, it was there, it was very scary, there were airplanes, airplanes. that's right, my mother went with it, my mother went with it to the city, i just hear it quickly, yes somehow, so quickly, the good guy got there, he died. gorillas. the children of my acquaintances have bohdan, as if he had
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moved away from what he had experienced. i already know, i'm already bloated. sailors , policemen from bakhmut, asked us to hand over to the ward. hello, definitely ask for a dog because you wanted a dog. well, hold on. hello, bohdan's dream of a dog will be helped. embody sirius in the shelter, where we arrived, the boy from the dog kingdom was delighted, together with the head of the shelter oleksandra mazinova, we offered the little hedgehog, you should barely
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touch him, the cat is my kitty, but he is firm in his decision, no bigger, even more to you. and what about the little ones, do you stand in front of the puppies, go , what do you like to scratch like that? oleksandra is sure that it is best when the dog chooses the person himself, but what to do when bohdan was chosen by everyone, get off my hands, i can't run away from them, but to them in the end, he chooses a black man, i will offend you, i never gave you a photo as a souvenir of his face bohdan will return when his new family moves to another house, you smile, he is
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happy as if this experience did not exist, give me a hand, give me, these children's smiles are no better reward to those who risked themselves to take them out of the war to a peaceful land ruslan tarasov andriy romanov daniel kosakovsky tsn 1+1 marathon single news freedom always lived in the hearts of ukrainians 300 years ago when freedom-loving ideas sounded in europe the empire tried to stifle every manifestation of our freedom, we were destroyed by slavery, censorship, and weapons, but even in the darkest times, like hryhoria skovoroda, the war in ukraine did not
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end every day, russia fires at the civilian population and destroys the infrastructure, and time and time again they confirm that it is a terrorist country. every day i feel the pain that war brings to people . pierces my heart like a sharp saber and so every time i hear about the threat of a missile attack on my native mykolaiv in the city where my parents, all my relatives and coaches are located, he has to hide in basements, in order to survive, all ukrainians have to fight for their lives every day, we athletes must fight for them on our front, do not remain silent , as russian and belarusian athletes do, and the children as one team are our final blow - this is the complete isolation of russian and belarusian sports in the world with their posts from hashtags of the company and call for a boycott of russian and belarusian
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athletes support ukraine on the sports front silence kills the rules of a warm country household appliances thank you on behalf of the vacuum cleaner for allowing it to fall into winter hibernation good for health wet cleaning and your thoughts and warms we will beat the winter together during a long power outage prepare for yourself and your loved ones supplies of drinking technical water warm clothes food charged batteries find out in advance save the contacts of medical institutions and addresses of emergency services from official websites or reference of the services and administration of your settlement , get ready for us, we will overcome the darkness together, in memory of my son, little sun, my joy
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is not to give up in this kitchen, i worked for 106 days knew that it was necessary to support our defenders to fight under the bullets of the avenue tanks drive for the beating of every heart for the sake of children's smiles we continue to work ukrainian women do not know fear i understood that i am a strong woman until the documentary series berehyny at war from 2:40 p.m. in marathon the only news millions of barrels of russian oil are stuck at the exit from the black sea, turkey simply does not release them, demanding confirmation of sanction documents and the sanction price of the bed for russian oil and thus hitting putin on the
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the main source of financing is oil revenues , but what does this figure mean, how compromising is it, why neither ukraine nor russia are satisfied with it, the most important thing, what will be the consequences for the world economy, this is what we will talk about on the air of the night watch in the studio, maria vasilievna nataliya ostrovska, i am even plinsky in us guest pavlo kukhta minister of economy 2020 for the beginning p pavlo the first question is the ceiling of 60 euros ukraine is dissatisfied zelenskyi says it should have been 30-35 russia is also not satisfied says that it is not a ceiling it is er, only the bottom yes, and we will not sell below where this figure came from and how compromising it is in the conditions that have developed around this, well, frankly not a simple issue well, compromising, but not so much in the sense of some kind of balancing of interests, because in the sense that the
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mechanism completely new, that is, in fact, in the conditions of the xxi century, now until the end, how will it work? none of us knows. there are many, many unknowns. no one has been tested, no one has been checked , plus there really was a need to find a compromise within the european union. why, because of eastern european countries and their oil refineries, they actually work on russian oil , even the equipment that is there is in the same slovakia, which is not pro-russian in any way, it simply does not work on the other, there is heavy oil and ureus, and other types of oil, the equipment must be changed, and accordingly, simply to preserve the dates for a certain period when they will replace it and not kill, including the b-oil products market, which is really important for us, because if it completely falls, for example, in production in eastern europe and not diesel will be gasoline in our country, we may be able to approach the fuel crisis again, as we were in the spring . we don't need this one, and at the same
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time, it is difficult to calculate all these consequences, that is, there is great uncertainty, it can be worse, it can be better, and no one knows for sure why this rate is floating were determined . that is, on the one hand, there are russian lobbyists, hungary in particular, they simply stupidly lobbied for russian interests. but i think that it was not so much the influence there as the fact that the european commission tried to somehow calculate the consequences, so they 60 have gathered around this figure. let's see how it will work in principle. understand that there is a nuance here that these sanctions work not only exactly as they are written. there were none because some russian companies were sensational from that side because there is an understanding that russia is basically thrown out of the market , you cannot build a long-term business based on
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relations with them because because because because such there are many reasons, respectively, business in principle comes from this, that is, they have secondary effects. and it is generally impossible to calculate how companies somewhere in china or the middle east or in other parts of the world react to the fact that the europeans have imposed sanctions . yes, sanctions are also applied there to insurance, to the financial component, there is already such an important element here, you can buy a tanker, but you, well, believe me, no one will take the risk of buying tanker oil and pay $100 million for it there , no one except russia can insure it because russia can sell insurance, they will sell, yes, they will sell new insurance, you are somewhere in bangladesh, i don’t know in thailand, you buy that russian oil, you can’t buy insurance under it, normally european insurance, which you know that if something happens, you will definitely be paid if it is not worth a lot because finance in europe , money is cheap back and now you have a choice, you can
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insure yourself with a russian state insurer, a russian tanker, well, the level, the level, in general, of trust for $100 million. yes, maybe that's all you can buy all your capital there, if it sinks or disappears somewhere, you will go bankrupt, you trust the russians enough to do business with them, but there are india and china, which are still waiting, we see uh, they are watching, but imagine an indian oil refinery there which now becomes such a question. it's one thing when they bought tankers, the tanker was insured by lloyd of london, and with which they have 100 years of insurance, the qualification they know for sure is that if the contacts are signed, they will be guaranteed paid and now the situation is that they are either not insured, they buy from the russians, where is the corruption, where are they stealing, where is the tanker , and it is not there? limiting the price is not so much fixing
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a specific price as simply starting to move in this direction in limiting the cost of the russian authorities according to their main source of income, and this is not accurate because it is more like a weapon of mass destruction that is, it is not such an accurate blow that we cut $60 each, and they are there by $3 million a day, i say conditional figures, they earn less, we hit them, they are definitely now their share in terms of money, at least in the world oil market, will decrease. they are now in less favorable conditions than their competitors , they are worse off, but how much worse, how effective it is, in fact, will be seen already in the process, moreover, i am sure that it will be necessary to further modify and adjust, the regulators will run around the world to catch these tank tires of the russians they will re-register that it is the marshall islands, liberia, whatever. it will be an elegant move invented by the europeans, that is, they cannot ban the purchase of russian oil in this world, because some countries may not want to and may not join
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, and they may not even use this price ceiling. well, for example, urban says that it is in the interests of hungary to buy more expensively than 60 okay , then what does europe do through this insurance mechanism, i.e. by limiting the insurance mechanism itself, they banned it thus, in fact they did no, she didn’t ban it, they did it without s- it ’s meaningless, absolutely useless attempts because, well, you ’ll find buy this tank, irda will first try to load it somewhere there, find a buyer who wants to buy more expensive than it really is, what fool will buy more expensive if there are ceilings if the main buyers buy for 60 today, the russian one is so. that is, you are almost on that name to some of its partners. russia sells oil cheaper than this ceiling. by the way, it is interesting such a phenomenon that the market price is already lower than this ceiling and the ceiling
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setting 60 and this is exactly the question i wanted to ask you. and why, well, it was really logical to make the ceiling lower than the morning price by a little 5%. yes, for example, and not the other way around, why did they still decide on 60, by the way, and president zelensky criticized and said that 30 was necessary, and the cranes of the baltic countries also criticized and said that 30 should have been done. well, then i agreed. the scientific price of oil changes every day, so it changed to 2% after the introduction of this process, in fact, it changes by 2% almost every day already many, many times that is, it is constantly changing and here too. a lot depends on the assessment forecast. and that is, the european commission also has its own expectations, its understanding, it is basically internal to the politicians, in fact, these mechanisms will definitely be adapted, plus note that there is also an exception for pipeline oil, that is, they left it on that of the pipeline with the ironic name of friendship yes, we have a
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month, of course, yes, friendship is a pipeline, the second is this realism. oil precisely so that these oil refineries in the east do not stop, and this is a political compromise within the eu and, to a certain extent, insurance against the law in the market, well, note here, we actually have a dual interest, that is, on the one hand, we want to go to the russians as much as possible, on the other hand we definitely do not want to get a new fuel crisis if some oil refineries, which are currently supplying us with all the pieces, collapse, and here, too, we need to balance and this well, since this is a dynamic market , not all parameters are known, not everything is visible and still the situation is constantly changing. it is clear that here the parties are starting to rule. well, we, the baltics, who are at war with russia or are at risk of being the first in the war, are simply pressing to the maximum so that well, because we understand that this test is needed so that there is no solution for a
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softer check hungary, other lobbyists of russia they are just trying to soften it, they made a balance in this way with meat, the commission yes, and those actually who are germans, those are the countries that ultimately depends on some countries. this decision, and they are already taking into account the pressure from both sides and how is all this it will work, they have to make some kind of decision, they have developed something like this, which is simple . one thing introduced it, now the war will end, can it work maidan because now ours understand in principle that the mechanism has been launched but for them, this new ceiling does not mean much the economy, how can this decision really affect the economy? i remember on our broadcast with yevgeny,
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we spoke with the russian economist mr. aleksenko, and he is now advising our minister fin , yes, he is an oppositional economist, and he says that you consulted many years ago, that is, he i say realistically, even if you don't try to hit oil, for whatever reason you want, the russian economy is built so that it will not bend in the coming years , that is, how great is its inertia that it will be able to roll for many more years, you even this oil restrictions, yes, which actually applies? well, up to 40% of the russian budget is filled, you know that even this restriction is global, it is of no use, the president, i share them, i do not agree with this position. discussed in detail and actually calculated that this can
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affect the economy, you need to understand what the russian economy is and what the problem is for you and me and for the world as a whole, the russian economy is a very, very large piece of raw materials that goes to the world market is too big. unfortunately, the irony is that almost all of this is achieved in siberia. there are 10 or 15 million people living there, who are essentially like a colony there, conditionally russia. yes, it is like russian territory. but in fact, it is not an inhabited territory on which they they control and extract raw materials there, a lot of these raw materials, the share of these raw materials in the world market is too large to be simply thrown out of there , the global economy is built like this, the percentage has already grown so much, notional, in fact, more because it is different we know different types of raw materials for autogas, but in fact it is in which aluminum is developed, so non-ferrous metals are black, there is a lot of everything. siberia is one of the richest territories in the world,
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it is very large. less competitive, they partially take away money, but basically this basis of the economy remains as long as they have this control over this birok, it is physical and legal, as long as from their territory, where these resources go, they receive this money, unfortunately, if it was an industrial industrial economy, it would have already fallen because the investors left there a long time ago, they moved the companies that are easier to transfer to other countries, and all this has already ended, the economic war would have been won and the military war would have already ended because there was no money, mcdonald's left but it's not like that, it didn't work like that, their factories closed their production, they stopped, but they are a raw material economy, they are a gas station, a very big drop in the stock market . well, you understand. that's right, that's why we see them that, unfortunately, at the expense of these raw materials, they
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more or less plus-minus keep themselves, yes. they will not be able to develop. the majority of their population will live the way these people who use toilets live. then they steal washing machines from us, but they. there is no such thing, that is, it is obvious that they live like this, if they are ready to live like this. yes, in poverty, then such poverty will be provided to them. they talked because what can lead to a collapse from a crisis, where can there be a crisis? well, there will be no default in 1998, yes, public finances are not reduced in the end, we are starting to solve everything, the crisis collapses, they collapse, they collapse. unfortunately , they will be able to collapse again because the population is mostly ready to live in poverty because there is money from raw materials, that is, it looks like at least in the coming years they will not fall, rather , they will be suppressed, they will not grow, there will be nothing new in them, there will be no development, there will be
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gradually further degradation, they are already degrading, they will degrade further, but this is festering, and it will not break through with the nearest hands, well, at least it looks like this, if a revolution suddenly happens, there are some forces in russian society that we do not see, and they will break out, then yes, but it is not visible from the east economics, unfortunately, this does not follow from mathematics, so the scenario we are moving on is essentially that we will repel them now we will drive them away, and then they are there and then we have to understand how we, how we will build this world of europe, that is, it will not be a situation when the problem will resolve itself next year will be a situation when we end this war and immediately have to be ready for the next ones. yes , but here the question immediately arises. it turns out that the thesis that the sanctions policy is more effective in these conditions is because of who sanctions are implemented. reality actually does not correspond to reality because
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, first of all, if there were no sanctions, if russia was not taxed and not restricted, they could now feel completely different because it was comfortable, they would have purchased more weapons, they would have something there did they raise any pensions for themselves, they also boosted putin's rating, that is, it hits, first of all, secondly, note that the population is ready to live like this, and their entire class of corruptors and oligarchs, which is actually the main beneficiary of all this siberian wealth, they executed it is very strong from the sanctions there, let the assets be seized and the incomes fall into them. that is, it hit the elite there, and maybe some solution will come from there, and i hope that the elites will revolt. it is almost impossible to predict, yes, everything is happening under table, it is not visible, it is russia, an authoritarian regime , that is, one can only hope here. but in this sense, sanctions are a plus, i simply think that these sanctions mechanisms will not be a situation when we will ride and the world will return to there on february 23, 2022, there will be a situation when there is this enemy
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which is rotting, which is problematic, but which still has an army with nuclear weapons, uh, on which site will it be necessary to defend and sanctions so that they are not removed or are removed, removed very, very slowly, we will need to have a very strong army to understand how we defend you can have in your head the understanding that if everything falls there, it can fall so that it will be even worse, that we will have to go there, enter russia, and put some kind of order, because it is a country with nuclear weapons, and it can fall into the hands of someone there. this is also an unknown big problem, that is, the problem will not disappear and it is like this, well, the struggle of our life, not her, it will be with us until the end, this is our challenge, that is, our generation, to somehow cope with this, finally, let's return a little to the topic a-a with which we started let's return to oil in our country andriy zakrevskyi is already the chairman of the board of the oil and gas association. let's talk about how the world
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will react and how the oil trend can change in a global sense in response to the introduction of these restrictions. and how events can unfold because we have come to the fact that in fact russia is now selling oil to some countries cheaper than this ceiling of 60 €, how can the price change how global markets will change you know if you answer directly to your e- is on your question, er, the world did not react in any way to what happened on december 5, because it was announced at the
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end of june. russian vessels will be issued for russian oil for europe, now it does not take ship or sea oil as you like. name the oil that moves by sea, as she promised at the end of june. it was the sixth time. this is the sixth portfolio of france and it just worked, that is, europe said what it will not take european oil and it does not take european oil any more, uh, starting from june the month before, there were talks about the introduction of restrictions only for europe and for the whole world on the price of oil, and this is such a huge step for e- democracy when,
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instead of libertarianism and the development of free markets, they give in to this in order to limit russia in its whims, and the most important thing is to knock out the weapons of blackmail from them, that is, to blackmail the people with equality and changes in the price of oil, today we we let oil in tomorrow, we don't let it in and so on. here's what happened due to collectivity before that, oil was falling due to the recession, the dollar is getting stronger, which means the price of oil is falling. you can't even share with each other here what controls the price of oil on the value of the dollar or the dollar is a reflection of the price of energy in the united states of america how did the price of oil fall in our country on december 5 and how was it shown there wave analysis of the price of oil. it
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continued to go down there by one and a half dollars per contract 70. what was supposed to happen according to technical analysis was supposed to happen the next day, december 6. it did not react in any way. the price of oil in the world did not react. and what do you think? what will be the consequences for the russian economy , will this restriction on oil really be the most destructive , as predicted since the 14th year, when we all called for these restrictions, believing that they would be very effective, unlike those sanctions that were actually introduced in 2014, there are estimates that the russian budget may lose a third of its revenues due to the embargo and this price ceiling. do you agree with such estimates ? i do not agree. -e of their e-e of russian north korea, this is not
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what they will lose everything e-e, they already understand that there must be some e-e bridges to be made for the ruble so that it is convertible, they ask to settle in rubles and what is settlement a ruble in rubles it's just trying to somehow convert one's currency simply and simply yes that is, to exchange it for something that is, i do not agree with the conclusion that only a third will be lost, but let's sort out two things with you. first, even russian analysts say that out of 218 million the oil that was previously sold for education, god forbid that 108 million of the oil was sold next year is no longer a third, it is already half of the oil that is still being traded , the oil price limit of 60 dollars, what is it for someone there
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it seems that this is a high price. and if there was oil, it will be 120-130. if the pressure of the channel is blocked, then it is said that this price is 2.5 times less than the market price that can exist in the world at that time, that is, we have a ceiling that already limited it. the third position is the same. the price of 60 bucks is not carved into the slope, tomorrow they will want to say -5%. after er the day after tomorrow they will say -5% again. that is, as they want, they will regulate this oil price, now the oil price is $60. this is a very cool price because it ensures the world from er existence of black of the oil market. if i were her, i really want to prove russia. the president of poland wants to say russia. yes, we need to order russia here and now, but from the point of view of the green transition, from the point of view of the deficit, if during the recession, all the money
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will run away from oil companies tanks and so on, this is the first thing, that is, europe and biden are thinking about it, that is, the price of oil should not be too high, low-fat, uh, regulated, but at the same time, not so low that it becomes 30 bucks and we have a black market of russian oil but there are still a few important key players in the world market, china and india. they will obviously now look for certain ways and think about how to act further. will the economies of india and china be able to support russia? no, they will not. i already explained in one of the ezo

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