river, somewhere there is a certain equilibrium, we will win due to the accuracy of the correct body laying, we will break their logistics, and they will continue to pour a large number of shells, therefore, in my opinion, it is inappropriate to talk about the fact that there may now be some prerequisites for contour offensive actions or from the pure side the soil will not freeze completely, in my opinion, this is the line of equilibrium and it will be preserved, we saw what happens when the soil is not frozen, how does this happen ? to expect uh-uh some uh-huh well, let there be some kind of uh-huh action in the area of ​​svatove flint and somewhere sooner because uh-huh there are different opinions. for example, i heard such an opinion that he might not even expect any results in the area a flint knife in the svatov region is actually interesting and really, well, it doesn’t look like that, but again,

it is necessary that the soils are local, it is necessary that it last for some time, because in principle we already see that there is a russian now, most of the texts are not that they tried very hard to keep them there now someone, our troops even rolled things that are this model of the so-called line to the wagners and we can already push that they are from northern luhansk oblast to their uh-uh plans well, it's not that they just said goodbye, but rather they don't give in the direction of some stra this, of course , would be unpleasant for them to sound the luhansk region, which was completely captured, or even half of it, but what can you do here, it’s really inconvenient to hold it, in fact, now they’re just burning bull shit in attempts to counterattack on the ukrainian position , actually behind the track, i still don’t think it will last dear, i don't think it's bitterly necessary, but we

need to achieve some success, we need to name the consequences where google has potentially succeeded, and this is exactly the direction it is seen by more students than others. the weather and other conditions will make up in a certain way, it can really be the next, the next really, most likely, it seems to me that it is in the direction of crimea, or i have also repeatedly heard that somehow the russians have it worse . why is the snow more likely? well, let's start already, sir petro to talk about the fact that the russians still have the advantage of the vertillery and having at least its reserves. and judging by everything, it is unlike the matchmaker’s flintlock, where they are perhaps a little less active near the bachmut. they are still they are trying to use this, uh, well, use

this fire shaft of theirs, as they call it, near bakhmut and near avdiivka, near avdiivka, as if even there they brought something new, some sunbakers there, or there they started to use something else, well, at least i heard something like that, and here appears here question and what is the best way to stop this shaft of fire? well , because we can say as much as we want that it is good that they are grinding their teeth there, but it is not good that they, in principle, have the opportunity to advance certain peter, to whom is the question for you, mr. peter? well, let's actually figure out why the russians are putting so much pressure on bakhmut because at first glance everything looks like there is some of their classic russian madness. it is certainly present, but in fact there is a very serious and very correct logistical calculation, we have already talked about the fact that the war is 95% artillery, so trucks like kamaz or ural are their main workhorses

of ammunition from russia itself, primarily artillery up to 152 mm installations, you can’t get there, such a machine can take a set of no more than 60 shells, and let’s say for the bm-21 grad, well, that’s 32 shells are not needed anymore. the railway canvas and it is more dense and knotty there. let us recall the 15th year when there were mad and fierce battles. let me remind you that one wagon with a toner capacity of up to 60 tons can take up to 10,500 shells or about 350 rockets up to of the same bm-21 echelon i can make from 30 to 40 in individual cases and up to 50 wagons from bakhmut to debaltsevo of our entire some 42 km himers installation equipped with m-31a1m31 a2 ammunition with a warhead of 90 kg works at 84 a

already mentioned in the alder studio our modernized, painted , very serious missile with a speed of 1,400 m/s, as they cannot be stopped in any way, works at a distance of up to 90 km, so they simply need to move our fire lines, because we have learned to drink their logistics and this so-called logistically fire zashmorg which unique, perfect, perfectly tested in the kherson region, it works, and here is what you need to understand and they will really press because this node is strategic , how successful in my opinion. so far, everything is not the best with them. since the first of august, i conducted an analysis for myself, they advanced by max by 8:13 km this is not even the operational depth of the brigade for the second army in the brackets of the world. well, you know, this is a very dubious success for the russians, a political issue, but they are storming bakhmut because they hope

to get political dividends from this more also, i saw a very interesting infographic that was distributed by telegram channels close to prigozhin, showing how successfully prigozhin's troops stormed bakhmut, in contrast to how other troops, we won't say which ones surrendered kherson from afar, kharkiv well, kharkiv region and they left from there. and judging by everything, this is basically a certain group of uh-uh in russian well, let's say the art of the majority, which is trying to show its successes using the example of bahmut, so there is no need to wait for it to stop here wait, that’s it, that’s it, it’s your two questions, viktor, how did they make a mistake, and they will be washed off, mmm, we can

recall a number of examples, the russians conducted, they simply use a general strategy, if a certain card did not lead to success, you just need to repeat it until it reaches the volume the president, some specific course of action, we can say chernobaivka, we can ask the entire history of the kherson region as a whole, and we can simply see what exactly is planned, simply absolutely in the system, structurally, not counting losses and if something just doesn't work out, then you have to throw in even more meat and projectiles and everything will definitely work out. well, maybe in their opinion, that's why we actually expect it, i don't expect any big changes here, uh, very practical moves , i tried somehow, i don't know i don't even know what to do in this case, if they have been going there for 9 months , the meat is just coming out and they will prepare the meat, the question is what is the actual capacity of

our meat grinder or is it not? it turns into some such you know well uh maybe a military ruse they might be preparing something from the other side uh or well here hardly because well really 9 months everything is going on today when i would say uh i heard yesterday about the possibility of some large scale fanastic in a few months maybe it's a few months true yes, but to begin with, we need to see where the actual large strike groups are located so far. so far, we do not see it, but he himself does not announce it. so, despite the hysteria about the possible involvement of the belarusian army, so far in the belarusians are standing on the borders literally up to five battalions, this is a little necessary forces with which you attack the country er-er four times more than ever. therefore, so far, of course, nothing of the kind is visible here,

it must be understood that this war is still taking place in the conditions of er- it is actually an effective development of an assistant in the aerospace industry. if so, this is how to get the head of the village separately, and i think it will be somewhat difficult , because really any major operation requires appropriate preparations and any appropriate preparations. they don’t have them now. well, you can clearly see somehow, doing this in this is very stupid, i’m not there, it’s very secretive to concentrate the cities somewhere there, i don’t know in hungary, i’m such and such transcarpathia, well, it’s not a little bit of our time, i don’t expect anything like that yet well, when viktor spoke, it was part of that map it was presented to show how successfully wagner was trying to storm bakhmut, and how unsuccessfully the troops in the kharkiv region were regrouping or retreating, or what they were doing

. right next to bakhmut, the whole situation is marked, after all, the ratio of artillery, then probably the ratio of artillery, well, at least the parity of our artillery with the russian one would perhaps alleviate this situation . and more artillery, judging by everything, this is the main idea in principle to concentrate the majority of artillery there and try to break through. that's the only way i see it, let's talk near melitopol because, well, ughledarska near ughledarska. apparently , the attempt to storm something there ended with the fact that, uh, they could not

advance anywhere. even now, they give little by little. melitopol is interesting there because it was struck by various means by the ukrainians and a bridge was blown up that cannot. well, in principle, one of the two important bridges is important. i understand that it is unlikely that heavy equipment will be able to pass through it now. russians are something they say that they will be able to fix some kind of crossing here in about two months, but so far it looks like this, what can it be and how much can it be, well, let's say it's a quick preparation, mr. peter, because it looks like this since the story began under kherson, it is actually impossible not to notice, but to what extent it can develop, i will apply a little philosophy, because for a very

long time i did not understand the saying of the great chinese thinker snza that truly successful strategies are never repeated and they are actually after having already carefully analyzed for myself at least a dozen successful ukrainian operations. and we already have such a dozen operations, indeed, they are all not similar to each other, but i will emphasize that they are not similar, each operation has its own special, unique logic, it is best to demonstrate this, for example, kharkiv and kherson i would call kharkiv’s assault and onslaught , strength and success, and i would call kherson’s a method of curculosity, so which of these hybrid methods will be played out or applied in relation to i don't poplar, because in fact it would be incredibly good if we managed to create a so-called operational wedge to melitopol, because it is actually a very serious nodal transport corridor that connects crimea and further south-eastern ukraine, and

if we managed to somehow repel it and cut it in two groups, then we could talk about the cascade collapse of the front. but at the same time, i have always been a critical realist, and the worst thing that can happen to us is when we stop correctly assessing the enemy of the enemy. underestimating no matter how much we laugh at these bulls. but there are, in fact, i don’t laugh at them, they still do their dirty work, they die in huge numbers, which is why the russians save the trained personnel, which, let’s say millimeter - 60 m per day, but still advances and in no way are these parameters not to be neglected or in a strategic sense. we felt all the pain points of the breakdown of their ammunition, both control points and fuel and lubricant

materials. yes, but still in moscow sausage stalev apologizes for such a metaphor, it is actually still quite long, emphasizes quite long , i do not have strategic optimism that everything will happen in the coming weeks, that is, a turning point in the front, in my opinion, the prerequisites for this are in place but really, we will be able to raise the bar of optimism for ourselves no sooner than the end spring, the beginning of summer, of course, everything can happen in one day, but to bet on the phenomenon of god or on suddenness would be the height of wisdom. they are expecting an offensive near the regulation field in ukrainian and actually, well, they probably have to somehow prepare for this, or do we see viktor that something is being prepared by the russians in that area of ​​gulyaipol, that is where they are constantly overturning, how are they constantly

preparing, they are generally very afraid of zaporizhzhya now region and they are doing it right, because as a colleague of the promises pointed out, in any of the kharkiv region, it can end on the shore of the sea of ​​azov, and any gap in communication between the occupied crimea and the occupied donbas does he put under the condition that the quarantine is still in an unaided operational state? he put a very big call-up notice already in front of the russian armed forces, and on the one hand and physically it is a very serious damage to their logistics. if we manage to do it , it was really good and the russians understand it absolutely, moreover, they are giving political weight to the actual corridor, er, in the ancestral corridor to crimea, that is why they are now doing everything so that it just didn’t happen, that’s why exactly in zaporizhzhia region, they actively even played reserves, they quite actively tried to strengthen something there, and

in contrast to the same under or luhansk oblast . they are not ready to retreat. they definitely do not understand that if you, in fact, this will happen here, it will turn out to be not just a military, but also a poetic catastrophe, because actually, what then what then what should you call assumption i'm sorry, i don't know, occupied mariupol because if there is not even this to one corridor to crimea or what it is but the signature look of ukraine to excuse me, why was this war then and then it means that the war in general was banished because if it did not reach any meaning if you want a whole and died because in those days, let's not tell him about it. that's why now i

zaporizhzhia oblast will not hold on with all parts of the body felt. look there, uh, the railway that we saw there is very well visible on the map, where it passes, and this hand is one so-called road through berdyansk eh and there to melitopol as well and what kind of weapons does ukraine have in general to get it all to this entire operational depth to the sea of ​​azov, what can we do to strike there, we can talk about it today, our main working tools m-142 hamers and its more powerful brother mls m270 in the ammunition that is officially declared that we received it m-31a1 m31a2c 804 km emphasize 804 our modernized alder is nothing but bm-30 tornado because in special ammunition up to 90 km well, of course, we have what we have

an old, slightly forgotten point of ustya from the 70s, developed 9m70 9 with an operational range of up to 120 km, but we remember that the ammunition for these missiles was quite small, they are actually very valuable and are used only in special cases, it was this missile that sank their large amphibious assault ship saratu in the same berdyansk well, of course, the barrel artillery is the most long-range, which are two serious installations, first of all, the f-1 turret with the french and german panzerhaus 2000, which can work with an active rocket projectile up to 40 km here is what we have in the working package and it is used very competently very so very carefully why we lose to the enemy in the first place in artillery ammunition of western models about 20 million ready shells of the russian federation or 15

there is a discussion about how many of them we actually talked about but i will remind you that on at the beginning of this war, the americans had only 2.5 million of our 155 millimeter guns in reserve, and the french honestly and frankly said that we do not have such a quantity that would be calculated somewhere in the thousands of ammunition and only for according to the results of bukharevsky, some of them have just come to the right decision to fully launch a large european military assembly line, and he is definitely in favor of it, but we understand that it is not days, not weeks, it is months, it is all time, and so we endure this unique confrontation. what would i call it the struggle of david and the holiograph, where david is powerful, large, quantitative, this is pe- i apologize, where golliaf is a large, powerful number of russians, and david - these are ukrainians who win and hold this line of defense solely due to accuracy and quality and is there something that we could say that it would be

in this, well, let's say in the battle for melitopol, we'll call it that, it could break the situation in favor of ukraine, viktor, so that maybe we would like to get is there such a thing somehow, if they gave us the same weapons, the same weapons were even further away from kyiv, we would have to be sure to harvest communications around the sick field, how could we repeat them at our defensive bridge with considerable regularity? well, in principle, if we were still there there is aviation in that region a little more active in it would have been much better if there had been at least much more conditions for an effective competition, and that is why, theoretically, western partners could have helped us and the blood that will actually beat further 100 km, and the conversation about this has been going on for a

long time, they do not want it. unfortunately, but there is such a problem that it seems to me that it is necessary to move on to the argument that we need to give a trucker because until the very west of nato itself we began to exhaust this stock and it is shorter because this actually constitutes a problem i uh-uh of the same of the western combined nato deputy, of course the russian air defense forces have much more problems , but we still have to advance to liberate our territory, so here we have to talk about what to give . ah, the russians then rock, the russians were taught, everyone hoped, i will continue to hope for the grandmother, go, that’s why there is already an argument, we moved to the last volume, in order to actually win wars, we need not just to reach

these balances and this is for me to win the war in order to win it we need to equalize the territory for this we need in the next video for this we need a distant hand what will allow us to impress the eyes at least on that particular section of the point we are talking about all the way to the sea of ​​azov sure. by the way, here is the announcement that ukraine has started producing 122-caliber projectiles. there is another one there. to what extent can this affect the course of hostilities in general? what is this, mr. peter, that we have begun to produce? i have already been confirmed. information, the two main, uh, the two main scarce calibers are 122, it is actually scarce because it is primarily mobile, and the d-30 installation is book-towed and two s1 cloves, in fact there were critically few of them , and still, despite the fact that outside the 12 classes of artillery tables the allies have provided us at the

moment, still the main working 152 mm artillery installations remain primarily two s3 acacia and 25 hz as well as 2s19 their towed versions are useful because that’s all i switched it all is on the crawler and to the truth these shells incredibly necessary but we have to understand that although the production of the projectile is not a very complex device, it is our piece of iron and gunpowder that is placed there but nevertheless, the conveyors have their own limited resources and we are not talking about hundreds of thousands of ammunition and where it is about tens of which in fact help us maintain parity. however, in my opinion, the part called breakthrough is still quite far from the front line, not only in minutupels. in general , modern aviation would help us to break through. i was and i will remain a staunch liar of american

aviation complexes such as the f-16 f15. although much cheaper and lighter, such as, say, the swedish krypeng or the german tornadoes or the french amphibious assault aircraft, we would also need 100 million dollars for the training of ukrainian pilots. 100% sure sooner or later they will be realized to the last dollar but when this aircraft will come well actually for now it remains a mystery to me i can not give an exact prediction when it will appear or will appear as a matter of course, the question of the school well, so far , unfortunately, we are not talking about this in the near future, but let's talk then about what we are talking about in the near future, as if there were reports that the united states is ready to provide complexes to ukraine patriot, so far it’s like that of the press, but it’s still interesting. well, what can they tell us, what can they do

for us now and how quickly it can be if, for example, this decision is already there, it can be made this week, so how about this say the press what do you say, viktor, very simply, they can help to work some key ones were, first of all, the capital, first of all, they can help to rewrite the kyiv infrastructure, he, er, russian rights, and it was really not bad. kyiv is how to eat their central movement precisely because they really hope for the importance of its infrastructure and , after all, a large metropolis, and even taking into account the evacuation there, now we do not remember it, it will be filled precisely in order to to cover it up and in order to make the russian terrorist tactical period and the structure of the final negative, we could

do it exactly like a petal, it is necessary to understand that here both sides in me when they will be a finite resource in the russians are not an unlimited number they do in our country there will be a significant number of missiles for the park volume strengthening of ukrainian law and the graying of western-style weapons extremely effective, of course, it must be understood that this one is only for covering certain zones here, it is not the only one, it is about the fact that now, in general, russian missiles over ukraine will not be welcomed, which is very simple for us, ukraine is big, ukraine is big, it is impossible to go through it all, but it is possible to cover the same kyiv with a battery of patriots uh, no, there will be some efficiency in this, so it is definitely for the better, you just have to

understand that it is not better, it does not mean that we will win everything, uh then he redirects the question also to mr. peter uh, actually, if this is really the solution accepted. how quickly can it be adopted by ukraine, because it was about the fact that it is a complex enough complex, there must be a very complex training. well, let's assume that this week they will still make a decision and when we can see them, so if we try to predict it is actually very difficult the question and it is especially difficult in the technological part, the mim 104 is really the best machine in its class that can lift agrodynamic bodies, i.e. airplanes, helicopters and, for us, the most terrible thing is cruise missiles within a range of up to 100 km and ballistic bodies that are very difficult to lift, but the patriot was intended for this and was developed within a range of up to 60 km, but there are two nuances , the first is that it is actually a very expensive machine, one

installation costs 170 million dollars, so we need at least one battery four or six machines began to be combined with each other , one missile is 3 million dollars. well, in order to have a full ammunition set, it is at least 100 missiles for only one battery, and to be honest, integrate this machine into our anti-aircraft the complex will be quite not just iris and samstv and hulk mig-23 significantly better and more flexible in order to integrate into our still prevailing old kpo system based on s-300 s200 e 9k-37 letters and so on how quickly it will happen well the ukrainians demonstrated miracles of the speed of learning new technology, they mean the same hymers, but still, the patriot is significantly more difficult, is it possible, but again, i am not optimistic that it will happen at a fast pace within a few

weeks, in the best case, it is a few months conditionally conditionally very conditionally according to the forecast it is a very ungrateful matter, namely in such a very delicate matter as air defense, if such an integration of at least one battery takes place somewhere in the middle of winter, that is, january february, then it will be a success. of course, on the other hand, it would also be good, but it is clear but in the near future we will have to look for ways to shoot down everything that flies at us somehow on our own, well, we have literally seven minutes left, let's still discuss a little what victor has already started talking about, eh, these are the forecasts that have now sounded from from different sides and so it is official dmytro kuleba made it public that in january and february we can expect an attempt of a russian offensive let each of you literally say for a couple of minutes what he thinks about

this matter how likely it is that this offensive is taking place we can wait for it what is most important come on viktor you have already started talking just finish your opinion. well, to be honest, i don't think that the russians have been able to get them out of their wide pants and , for some reason, we were very surprised when this one prepares for us, we will notice it and we know from which the direction should be able to go but again, let's go with it, i really believe in its effectiveness. let's say it simply because it requires a certain resource, first of all, a human resource, because the consequences actually require more experienced people than just chumps who can do it in russia has certain problems with personnel, both with experienced personnel and with lower-ranking officers. in russia, there are also problems with logistics, first of all, it concerns rolling stock , so try me