corner or remove the borders, certain, well, that is, some symbolic steps. this is necessary for putin, why did i start with the fact that they need a certain geopolitical victory? well, as a victory that can be sold to the russians. to sell the same product twice, well, it is very difficult , the russians already believe that belarus is russia's backyard and everything has been decided there and everything is fine, but of course, to get some symbolic step now will bring something, in particular, the defense complex there, of course there will be those stories about additional orders for belarusian power, about a possible even unification in some kind of joint holding, an honest enterprise , that is, some such years should most likely be expected well, but it will only be a game for the public with the publication of what is already the fact happened thank you for this analysis, we will then wait for the official ones on december 19, at least although we understand that what will be behind the door, we

most likely will not learn from official statements oleg sahakyan, political scientist, we are talking about the threat from belarus, meanwhile, on the belarusian border, the ukrainian military is preparing in any case to resist the enemy's amphibious landing in the rivne region, during which the fighters learned to strike at ground air targets, practiced their skills more precisely, as all this was seen by my colleagues mercury mercury i'm boyan, the goal is one personnel in the shelter, the mortar battery will work once again, yes, the military personnel who are currently protecting the integrity of the border in the rivne region have recorded the conditional enemy of two mi-8 the number of personnel was 40 servicemen, approximately, to destroy on

command, reception of force, position, i ask for help, mortar batteries, reception, i advance to myself, yes, this is the 120th mortar, it is for the destruction of the enemy, that is, the infantry, landing, such as a tank for it, mines, which are purchased by the ministry of defense of ukraine, respectively, in relation to contracts that they conclude and air targets that are located almost 8 kilometers away , we use the compass, the compass is guided by the sun, with it we attach ourselves to the target and

one or a salt can control, let's say eight a mortar operates such a mortar volunteer boris in the army, a man served in the 90s before a large-scale invasion, was engaged in entrepreneurial activities, took on duty pyrotechnics for weddings, served in the past , shot in bukovel, now i have to shoot in the rivne region, they go through the coordination of units, training in narrow specialties, that is, mortars , grenade launchers and spend among constant training of the unit is already on the ground, the introduction of their service by the commander of the joint forces of the armed forces of ukraine , serhiy naeva, now the military that guards rivne region is equipped with equipment and weapons in the event of an increase in troops near the border, this number of weapons will be increased. we are ready to counter enemy forces. the personnel

are provided with winter uniforms. those objects in which the personnel cannot hear and perform official tasks are prepared for the winter. there are appropriate means of heating. stockpiles of firewood that have accumulated, we fully control the situation along the state border with the republic of belarus, military personnel are constantly on duty 24 hours a day and all firearms are ready to respond to others answer well, let's say so in 10 minutes and the fire will be answered, the guys are ready, the guys are in a good mood and are determined to win. let them come, there will be a warm welcome here, we will arrange everything for them, and i don't think they will like it, but let them come kateryna siruk nazar midrigan public news riven, what's ours

the guys are getting ready. we are still talking from a theoretical point of view about prognoses about the probability. but we must be ready for absolutely everything. moreover, our commander-in-chief valery zaluzhny also said that it is not excluded that it could be re-offensive in particular from the north of ukraine we will talk with the commander of the headquarters of the vlad battalion of the vlad battalion of the kalinovsky regiment about the likelihood of the participation of belarusian soldiers you are on the side of the light and are helping us repel this full-scale russian aggression. good evening. please tell me, first of all, do you believe and what is your prediction regarding the fact that the belarusian military

they will still cross the ukrainian border well, personally, i think that this is an unlikely situation for ukraine. he already understands that this is a war lost by putin, and for him, joining this war now, and entering his troops into ukraine, is tantamount to signing a death sentence, because in belarus there is an extremely high anti-military sentiment, and this can be an impetus to more one m-m takoy well because of two

big protests yes and these protests can be among the military part of the population such protests can be supported but on the other hand if putin himself is already going to put pressure on lukashenka then won't there be on the other hand for lukashenka as a single person and for his regime, it is a death sentence that he will refuse what putin offers him, so what is more frightening for him to refuse the offensive or to refuse putin's ultimatums, well , putin has already given these ultimatums to lukashenko, and lukashenko has always deceived him. he didn't look at the fact that we all consider him to be a collective farmer, but he is very very cunning, he is very cunning and that's why he will twist to the last, he will

talk about the fact that it is necessary to rumble with caterpillars there near brest, about the fact that lithuania wants to harvest the bunch he will tell any fairy tales, but at the same time, he will not send his army anywhere, because his power in general rests on the militia and the armies that support him. ah, well, so that she is together with the putins she came here with the troops. well, it’s clear that they are all dead. ugh, but there can’t be, for example , a situation where putin offers him his military as a guard that will keep his regime. yeah, not because it’s understandable, but because it’s understandable. today they are guarding and tomorrow they simply tied him up and took him wherever he needed to go , and i think that putin is asking

lukashenko to simply stir up the situation on the border so that ukraine constantly keeps a certain group of troops and therefore, these troops could not help , let's say, at the zaporozhye administration or at the bank. this is what putin is asking. i guess i suspect that this is a meeting in order to look even harder at this situation . look at the situation. missile launches from belarus do not occur, that is, gradually gradually gradually yes, he gives there training grounds for troops yes, he gives eh for these mobilized downs, he gives eh some eh, well, opportunities for them to live on the territory of belarus to train, he needs shells there technique, but he is not, well, he is everything more and more people understand what

will happen to him when this war is won like this. by the way, what is your opinion on how to change lukashenka's regime in belarus before the victory of ukraine, and is it possible? i think that yes if people rise up if there will be such a protestant life as it was in the 20th year, when lukashenko supported the elections. yes, i think that yes. yes, a lot of people are imprisoned for a day and for children the administration there will paint that color there, you speak in your native language and for that, too , you can get 15 days and that's why eh now belarus is such a big concentration camp but eh we

know everything ourselves that eh any jug can always be full the last drops and something can be such a trigger from which just such people will start to rise . in any case, i wish belarus a bright democratic future as soon as possible. thank you very much once again for your support, support us in this struggle . please take care of yourself. we will win together. there was mark, the commander of the headquarters of the vlad battalion of kostya kalinovsky's regiment, these are the fighters who help defend our independence. with you, too, who also bring our victory closer, but i want to delve into this moment, after all, why is lukashenko more afraid of refusing putin or something that he will remain , well, in fact, he will become a worthless political unit and will remain without the support of his army, we will talk about this in particular with valeriy kalinovsky, a journalist of radio svoboda

, he is joining us valerii good evening please tell me your vision, what do you think, where is the limit up to which lukashenko will refuse putin to join the war ? let's put it this way, with your army, don't just give territory, but give your army. well, you know, it all depends not so much on lukashenko, but on the desire army from the desire of the belarusians to send their sons to death. and there is no such desire and there should not be any volunteers who would go to wagner or someone else for money. yes, you can find such people, but the belarusian army, which is mainly conscripts, so that it is conscripts they went to die in ukraine, for what, so that it would be good for putin and lukashenko, that belarus has claims against ukraine, some land,

they want to take away or kill someone or destroy something. that is not why there is such a public reluctance to participate in a war with belarus on its own - actually, it does not provide - not only for the provision of territory for russian aggression, but also for the belarusian soldiers to take part in it. therefore, this is the main thing. it can be so. putin would go, but after all, it is lukashenko. he would go for what putin demands of him, but society will not want this. i thought that this is the main thing that interferes for some reason. however, putin is clearly going to lukashanka, not tea to drink and not potatoes to eat. well, it is clearly your opinion that what will happen behind closed doors already when a meeting is held at such a level that putin himself eh he is going to belarus, because usually the opposite happened. lukashenko went to putin. well, you know, if you allow me to

make a forecast, i would predict that nothing groundbreaking will happen, that is, there will continue to be such victories as they already are. have been leading for more than a year or maybe several years and which led to the intervention of the russian army on the territory of ukraine from the territory of belarus in february, and they talked a lot and now they can continue what to do next how to take lukashenko's complicity what else can you do to help well maybe putin will ask the belarusian there for the chinese e-e polonaise missiles, who in belarus have some other equipment, some support, maybe he will talk about it, here we go on to talk about economic integration problems, because in belarus, after all, there are with such serious pressure of international isolation and economic and so on, money is needed, and lukashenko will probably talk about this, demand some funds for loyalty, because the economy is suffering. well, he

himself raised the issue, but the day before, he gathered his i don't know there, the highest officials and discussed what will be there? so , people will discuss how to look at this meeting and it seems that this one threatens the sovereignty and independence of belarus. but we will be brothers, but not for that, that is, he immediately put it as if he did not understand that the question before putin is that we cannot here , er, what to do next within the framework of the so-called integration well, russia's own desire to annex belarus is obvious, that is, it let's say what he says, then what he said will certainly be discussed. russia probably wanted the acceleration of 28 allied programs and so on, but on the other hand, he wants gas for belarusians and

belarusian entrepreneurs to be the same for russian gas, that is, for a single economic conditions here, there will be so much trade, what they will agree on, what they will not agree on, and there will be and there will be further meetings, this is my forecast. but will there be a breakthrough? i am not sure if the first meeting is not the first negotiation . - and about the security moment. next, we will talk with andriy kharuk, professor of the department of the academy of ground forces p. andriy. good evening. glory to ukraine. glory to the heroes. please tell me your opinion about this meeting. putin. lukashenko, but from the military point of view, how can this affect the theater of military operations, actually here we have several options , the first of which is the most talked about is a new invasion from the belarusian direction, or an

attempt to repeat what the russians managed to do in february in my opinion , the probability of this exists, but it is not high in the near future, since in the end there are no signs of the formation of any shock fists in this direction, even if we take into account the transfer of russian troops, then the basis here is the transfer of those mobilized for training on belarusian training grounds, because the russian capacity of the training grounds is not enough to digest the regional better all the whole mass of burns. well, and secondly, after all, our defense in the north is already easily not the same as it was in february , engineering barriers and the corresponding e-e positions of the troops have been prepared there

and it is necessary to take into account that this direction is difficult for offensive operations from kyiv to volyn oblast, if i am not mistaken, ukraine and belarus are connected by only 8 paved roads, and the rest are unpaved roads. they are impenetrable, and here you know it's still a moment for me, well, they ask themselves questions like russia, not being able to capture bakhmut, which we talked about today, that is, they are banging their heads against our defense powerfully, how do they want to stretch the front for hundreds of kilometers more well, this is actually one of the riddles to which i cannot find an answer is how they are going to do it, since the belarusian army that is currently there is especially unable to help them

with four motorized rifle brigades , if i am not mistaken, three brigades in their special operations forces are airborne, assault and special forces, plus there are artillery, certain units are the air force of belarus. well, i will not say that they are close to zero, but these are incomplete two air regiments if you consider that they even put training planes like 130 on combat duty against air defense because they don’t have their fighter jets like the su-27 that we use, the belarusians wrote them off a few years ago. well, the others were put on conservation due to the lack of funds to extend the resource, they fly on the mig 29 and one the link of the 130 transferred by russia, that's exactly what the situation is there. i mentioned about him that until belarus did not approach the foot of the belarusian army, our

border is ours, we cannot actually attack russian bases in particular. yes, there. what do you think? and this is the second second possibility that considering that the russians are perfectly aware in the event of an attack by belarus, their bases on the territory of belarus will immediately find themselves or with a very high probability will find themselves under by the fire of our means of destruction and this well, at least the same high-mars eh and here there is a second possibility why eh now the contacts of eh belarus and russia eh are meant perhaps the continuation of pressure on our northern border by the russians without open hostilities , and in this sense, as i once said

, such a tactic for the russians can be even more profitable than a direct invasion, since it provides a certain element of uncertainty, forces our command to keep a fairly significant cover force on the border with belarus in case of an attack then this element of uncertainty will already disappear, that it is not clear what should be done in accordance with the maneuver and the strikes aimed at defeating the enemy, that is, how long this company will last in the middle of the night is difficult to predict. i think that, taking into account the combat experience of our armed forces, it will not be long, but it will hold our northern border in tension, the russians can well, with the help of belarus,

figuratively speaking, to infinity mr. andriyu thank you for this analysis we heard your opinion andrii haruk, professor of the department of the academy of ground forces, we talked about potential threats from belarus and future meetings between lukashenka and putin, meanwhile, the united states may support ukraine's strikes on targets in russia, but will not provide american weapons for this, says mark e-e kanchan , senior adviser to the international security program of the washington center for strategic and international studies, what could it be assistance, what difficulties exist in the matter of the transfer of patriot systems to ukraine with mark honchan, olena armovska spoke about it, let's listen to everyone. i think that the ability of the west to supply weapons will be preserved, but the nature of this support will change. welcome to the first channel of public broadcasting. thank you for agreeing to the interview. a few days ago, the pentagon

announced what the new package of military aid for the united states would consist of. did anything in it catch your attention. thank you for inviting me to the program. it was the 27th package of military aid. aid from the united states they are announced about every two weeks this package is pretty standard it does have a clause about air defense which is a bit vague would be interesting to know what it might mean in the past the united states has supplied anti-aircraft missiles with missile defense may be something like this the only thing that is really different is er sue less er er motto as you mentioned on the list there is an item of air defense equipment and we heard from the president of the united states biden that in the united the states give priority to strengthening the air defense of ukraine in general. what are your thoughts on what

exactly it could be, because if you asked the ukrainians, they definitely mentioned the patriot system in this context. a significant thing for the aid package i mean that this was noted separately, most likely it will be some kind of specialized system, maybe a missile, maybe even a subsystem, maybe some kind of electronic system, a jammer, for example, something like a heart, something that can be integrated with the weapons that are already in ukraine as it was done before, for example, with the harming missile about the patriot system. this is quite a popular topic in ukraine, which stops the usa from

such a crocus. the problem with the patriot systems is their complexity and fatigue, how much time it takes to train operators and of technical personnel to maintain it in the field the training program for example for wild repairmen takes almost a year it also requires a very extensive supply chain to make sure that all parts and components can be repaired so it is very difficult for example jets and patriot and such aircraft would be a great addition during post-war reconstruction of the ukrainian army . but it is very difficult to adopt them during the war, perhaps there are certain efforts to start this process, for example several groups of ukrainian military to europe to the united states to start training, but it will take a long time before the

patriot system will actually be handed over to ukraine already after the recording of this interview in a number of foreign media reports that the usa may provide ukraine with the patriot system for official confirmation this information is not yet available. after these messages appeared, mark kanchen wrote to us in a letter that he would be surprised if the us did go for it, according to him, the transfer of the patriots would be a risky step due to complex systems and possible difficulties in its transportation during the war is a separate question. how long will it take to train the ukrainian military to use the patriot system? mark kanchyan expressed doubt that the systems will arrive in ukraine in the near future . i think that the transfer of additional air defense systems, such as the avenger, of which the united states has already sent four can send more or maybe more systems

to samsung it depends on how much the united states is willing to risk on its own the problem with air defense in in general is that after the cold war the united states nato allies eliminated most of their ground-based air defenses during the cold war of course the soviet union had a very large powerful nato air force and the united states built ground-based air defenses to protect its troops in in the event of a conflict when the soviet union was gone, potential adversaries of the west such as the soviets or iran or north korea did not have very powerful air forces therefore, there was no need to keep these ground-based air defenses as a result, the united states or other nato countries do not have many options to send to ukraine because they eliminated most of these systems. the united states is now restoring them and

has a few systems that are just coming out of development, but they are still not in field conditions, at the same time, as i have already mentioned, the states can take a greater risk with some stingar systems, for example, or hungarian, which are installed on jeeps, this would mean taking these systems from of american troops, the united states is reluctant to go for it but maybe they would be ready to take a little more risk, in any case, there are not so many available systems, so unfortunately it will be difficult to provide the level of air defense capability that the ukrainians really need another article that i i would like to discuss with you , a british newspaper reported the other day with reference to a source in the field of defense of the united states .

confirmation of such information, as well as confirmation that ukraine is really striking targets in the middle of russia. but do you allow the possibility that washington could change its position on this issue? i think we are talking about the fact that if ukraine attacks russian targets with its own forces, then the united states will not object to this ukraine has recently carried out attacks in crimea there were also these attacks on some bomber bases the united states says that they are not going to protest against this given that the russians attack ukraine every day, such retaliatory strikes by ukrainians are not unfounded, which worries the united states. this is the provision of american weapons to ukraine with which it could strike the territory of russia, the question in particular related to attack systems, it is possible that

the us administration will change its position on this, but this is a very sensitive issue the united states does not want it to look like they are attacking russia putin made it a red line and so far the united states is following it i will look at interesting closion indies repairings tacit consent of the united states to the attacks of ukraine on russia, i quote, would mean quite a development of events in the war because washington can now probably agree to provide ukraine with longer-range missiles . this policy, which was mentioned by a source in the administration, does not really apply to ata's ukrainian potential