er, so these body-backs or coffins that will go from ukraine to belarus, they will cause a greater resonance and reaction of the belarusian society than the russian one, yes , that is, in principle, we see that it is one people , it is a little different, yes, belarusians are no different from ukrainians, but they are definitely not russians, but the second point is definitely that in fact the government of belarus of this green man is holding on to his own bayonets and russian bayonets and definitely that he has to maneuver , he has to show some kind of loyalty to promise this alliance agreement with the general safe space threaten poland and other things but it seems to me that there are other things, well, first of all, putin came to support his junior partner, because of course this is a big, big signal of confidence especially the quilters who are also there in belarus, but it seems to me that the key thing there is not even training and preparation of weapons, repair which

i will then rush to us, and these are nuclear weapons again, let's remember that uh, actually, when was the pseudo-referendum held in belarus removed from the constitution point about the nuclear-free status of this country, and lukashenka, not for the first time, said that it is necessary because the poles are under threat there or nato is under threat, it is necessary to deploy some missiles or bombers or something like that. actually, during these meetings with putin, putin hinted that belarusian pilots are already training on planes that are capable of carrying non-traditional or non-standard ones, i don't remember exactly. they said that means munitions, they mean nuclear weapons, and it seems to me that this is the key thing that was basically discussed, it was definitely there and about gas, oil and loans and all other participation in the war, but this is the nuclear context , it is extremely important, and if you have something to

say to mr. sergey, please, if you can develop an opinion about putin's visit to lukashenka, if you have any specific thoughts, please please, and if not, i will ask one more question , literally, briefly, er, definitely, this visit did not have such an exclusively military significance, because if you follow the sequence of these steps that were taken, but in fact we have a situation when lukashenko did everything possible and now you know in him only the last step remains to announce mobilization, because since the spring we have been observing such movements that speak of the preparation and verification of mobile resources, testing of equipment, constant training, improvement of interaction and combat coordination, and the constant rotation of units of the belarusian army on our borders, when we talked about six battalions of tactical groups, but it is necessary to understand that, in fact, this level today is optimal enough to create a certain

tension, and let's be honest. well, without having taking advantage of this opportunity in march, now any offensive on the territory of ukraine for the belarusians will be suicide and self- destruction, they understand this very well from their side and understand it . in the next month or two, they will go on a large-scale offensive, it does not happen, because there is no reason for this today, one more question , again to p. sergey. look at the chess player and the strategies say such and such, they have a phrase a it is better to have a bad company plan than to change the plan during the campaign. when i heard that divisions were being deployed in russia. before that, there were

battalions of tactical groups. i was very happy and started clapping my hands, precisely because they are remaking again, that is, they are returning to the serdyukov style of divisions, companies, platoons, detachments this is all the soviet stuff that has already been forgotten about, the new world is simply not, it is considered yesterday, and when they started organizing divisions again, the first thing i thought was that it must be that more generals should be appointed to that division, and secondly, that i thought, well, it's great if they are now returning from the battalion of tactical groups to the division. then something needs to be changed again, there are some statutes, something else, and i think. well, it's great, this means that they will continue to mess up, am i looking at it correctly, mr. serhiy or not

, mykola unfortunately, i have to disappoint you, because russia is returning to its traditional methods of conducting hostilities , as it has conducted those hostilities for at least the last 150 years, and just returning to regimental and divisional regular structures says that we will deal with what is absolutely familiar and well-known for russia, namely the mobilization army, such structures, the mobilization army itself can act uh. that is, it is not professionals, it is a mass, but this mass has already been honed during many companies and the serdyukov army battalion tactical groups, showing their absolute inability and unsuitability for combat operations in ukraine, were canceled and they simply return to the old mechanism and, unfortunately, very

unfortunately, they know how to fight with these divisions. they they know how to agree with this, if you can say so, and you have to understand that we can expect rather difficult times because their army is actually trained in a different way, it cannot fight, and despite its general rather low training and combat capability she can simply put pressure on the masses, which is again typical for the war of imperial russia, red russia, and the soviet union, so that you can say, alexander, if you can say something, i understand that you are not an expert in military affairs, but i can from you i have some thoughts on this matter, i am just a little different, you know how before that, before the large-scale invasion of the west , the experts who watched the training read their own philosophical reasoning how

will the modern war be conducted and certainly that it looked quite like this let's say seriously and in fact, russian military thought is quite sophisticated, as i would say, but the reality is completely different from the point of view of the essence of the regime itself, the essence of society, and actually, it seems to me that there is more sociology here of political science, why did they not manage to use the western approach? yes, there is btg. and these are the first and second points. to be honest, i don’t know how effectively all this will work because, by and large , we have already finished the most combat-capable part of the russian army. in other words, if russia has now and then, they will have time to prepare at least something, definitely. it will not be the same army as it was before february 24. and that is precisely why diplomacy is included here, and the political will of our leadership is included, thank god, and they not only understand this, but

prove confident and convincing to our partners not to give russia a break, so that there are no ceasefires there, and this is minsk this year, and of course that this is an extremely important thing that we have to finish this bastard while we have the strength, while we are ahead in terms of generating our forces and means, and the most important thing, of course . so that we fulfill our task of liberating our territories as soon as possible, it is ordered that we still have time on our side, where it is in our favor, but this resource is limited. okay, i have another question for you . you can not ask about this law about the so-called

law on deserters, for which commander-in-chief zeluzhny advocated and human rights defenders spoke out against it is what i want to say although i am not a human rights defender but a journalist i am for zeluzhny and you are a pankha oh, you know i am not a specialist it is difficult to comment on the essence of the law, but from another point of view, you know our society , since the 14th year, has shown that for them the state is important even when the state is not able to protect its citizens. and it seems to me that those who actually fight must it also seems to me that i have read criticism of this law from my colleagues. it seems to me that before any law is adopted, it was necessary to look at the calculations as to whether it is possible to apply it on a large scale, that is, whether there are those people who will monitor it, will there use certain measures and other things, so it seems to me that i will not criticize, in fact, it has no right, but

the expert environment itself and those who are so style holder yes, as they say, they should be involved in the development of this legislation, which is legal and, unfortunately, not what happened, please, mr. serhiy, what do you say as a specialist in signs, i, uh. if we talk about the foundations of a democratic society in peacetime, then of course i should be against this law because, in principle, the punishment is already prescribed in the criminal code and so on, but talking with my friends, those who are now at the front, i am on the side of our commander-in-chief because, you know, the situation is non-standard and, well, if you don’t like war, some democratic norms don’t work, the discussion of such a law, i understand, it is permissible in peacetime, but wartime as a military man, i am completely on the side of the commanders-in-chief

of the armed forces and support this body, and both questions are up to you, and such, well, do you understand the institutions for this law to be effective? that i i absolutely support the military and mr. zaluzhnyi, but there must be a mechanism, some kind of some kind of procedure, we learned that something happened if you and i were panhara mr. grafskyi and mr. portnikov found out well, what did we learn, we have to have i don't know how to be prosecutors there, i don't know in the soviet there were unions, i don't remember what it's called. and there were forensic examiners in the army who did initial studies of some circumstances, but they didn't have such legal courses at all. yes, it's just an ordinary officer,

something happened, he just had to record what happened, and then the professionals started working. and now i just have a hard time imagining how it can be evaluated . the general is undoubtedly right when he says, well, listen, if you left the location, then there is a double burden on others. well, there is the second part in the body part, who stand on the second front. they receive twice as much load if you left well, but who will decide, well, let's see who will decide, let's go, yes, please , pograbsky military service of law and order we have military police in the army, this is the first and second, i myself was a military interrogator that is, this institute has not been canceled in the army. it is still working. ah, well, i just didn’t know. i was convinced that this is a judicial

investigator, or there are investigators. the investigator is no longer there. thank you very much serhiy grabskyi, a military expert and a participant in peacekeeping positions, colonel oleksandr express, issues of foreign policy . center for defense strategy thank you very much, there are a lot of questions, but time is running out, because we have to move to belarus, francs , a party at our place, a belarusian public figure , adviser to svitlana tikhanovskaya, a leader, a leader and let's be so feminine, oh, the opposition of belarus, if he is in contact with us, then we are in good health, mr. evening. congratulations glory to ukraine glory to the heroes yes well, maybe you have something, i talked, maybe in italy he wants to ask something i'm saying something, i'm saying something, and it's under my age, i understand, no, i'm 8 years older than you, he's a party girl let's talk about this visit to minsk, because it was very strange for me to read all these conversations

about putin going to put pressure on lukashenko lukashenko by the way, he is coming to russia tomorrow this time and i don't understand why. in order to pressure lukashenka to go somewhere . when lukashenka has already been to russia seven times, they met with putin in samarkand. they met with putin on foot. they met with putin in yerevan. 7 times in russia plus 3 outside russia. this is the 11th time in a year and it will be 12. why in minsk? well, i decided to fly to minsk, for example, to show respect to my partner . why is this place perceived as a place where you can press lukashenko? well, i agree with you. i don't think that putin was going to pressure they play as a couple, they play such a show, it is very profitable for putin so that lukashenko does not look like a vassal, he looks like a puppet, he looks like such a real and

independent sovereign, then it is more serious, it is not only russia that attacked ukraine, but it is already a whole coalition and they are selling it both to the russian society and to the belarusian audience, as well as to the third world countries of africa, central latin america, who then vote at the geno assembly, or a neutral album in support of russia, and for putin it is very important to support lukashenka, for him it is it's cheap for him, it's profitable, he has no one to replace lukashenka lukashenka now looks more pro-russian than many er russian officials and propagandists er, he speaks even more harshly than peskov in his interviews and comments and putin likes it and here he is he took all his education, he took it, he took it, who else was lavrov, and he did something like say a visit to the province to please

gauleiter, to thank him, and a whole performance in front of journalists, how friendly they are as a family, and look at this provocation- provocative question of francs and if you imagine an attack today, tomorrow, the day after tomorrow, god forbid, that tree of numbers, there are 25,000 russians and 10,000 belarusians will attack ukraine from the north of ukraine, what will happen in belarus, will these belarusian troops go or will they return their weapons against the russians do they obey the russians or the nation as a whole, the belarusians will say we and we support him, we will go out on the street or the belarusian partisans will say then we will then they will explode the railways, which one can be the reaction, what kind of reaction can you have, how does a belarusian ask, it is quite

difficult to predict, because it is different from russia, belarus has no support regarding this war, we see how ordinary belarusians react, how the nomenclature officers, even the security forces, do not react. they do not understand poland and get involved in this war, why die for putin and lukashenka and there are several options , album, we will observe acts of pre-ordering, banal sabotage , non-compliance with orders, there may also be assembly of weapons when someone is physically sent from the belarusians to ukraine, of course, it depends on who they send, because there are several, maybe even up to 2,000 scumbags who will serve loyally for money and shoot wherever they are told, but when they send half an army there, there are from 10 to 15 to 15 thousand soldiers, i think that we will observe mass desertion facts, we have already prepared the following instructions on what to do when

you are sent to war and where to surrender who to write to how to leave the country safely and get your family and military personnel out of the country before this, too, i think that lukashenko also understands this, that's why he will do everything to prevent this from happening , then it will be clear to everyone that he does not control the army and then it will be a collapse for his entire system. he will try now to give the impression that he took control after the 20th year that everyone listens to him obediently, but when such an attack takes place with the participation of belarusians, this whole house of cards can collapse very quickly, they will say, and in principle, this situation is connected with the presence of russian troops from belarus, can it lead to the fact that at least at a certain moment, these troops can simply capture the control of the state itself, which then can be contrasted with a strong

society with a strong identity with an understanding of the importance of protecting one's country and its independence, and after the 20th year, such a mood appeared very strong in in different groups of belarusian society, even among the officials, they suddenly realized that they are not russia, but after the start of the war, their national patriotic feelings even strengthened, they look at their relatives there or friends in of russia and they are twisting their fingers in the temple, what are you doing, stupid belarusians, belarusians have also woken up national honor and that's why i think that we will see in ourselves the further we go, the more disobedient and sabotage among officials, too, and i'm the only problem that lukashenka for 28 years invented a whole caste of officials

who have no opinion, they are called technocrats in western countries, but i would simply call them obedient and loyal slaves and insecure. i think that not all of them are like that, but there are a lot of them and they will remain silent but there will be a part of those who will loudly oppose when the war started, you know many who contacted us, of course they want to preserve their future, they understand that when putin and lukashenka fall, something will have to be done with the new government and they want some there is a path, a blade, a bridge to the future to pave. well, we say, if you want to help belarus, you should at least share information, and thanks to this, we now have many sources of information to find out what is happening in the economy, and what is happening in the military, part x unfortunately,

there are none among those particularly close to lukashenka, but there are some feelings and moods, we can measure this precisely about this is my question , see the next one, because we talked, you talked about the bureaucracy, the military bureaucracy, and they said that some of them do not have there are no thoughts in the head, and something is waking up in some people, but the current situation on the battlefield, well, if it is already screaming that russia can lose and a huge number of western countries say that ukraine cannot lose, then the question arises of the way and the physical and political consequences zmenska is much closer than from moscow if moscow can make a trade and i will give arms to a member of the un security council well, in short, there is something to

bargain about, there is a big army there, crimea is ours, there is no trade lukashenko his supporter well, there are no cards lukashenko has sixes in his hands , putin also has sixes on the years or maybe there is an ace in the form of nuclear weapons, but he, lukashenka, does not have an ace in his hands, what then is his entourage thinking of doing, well, do they have any thoughts, i do not believe that they have no thoughts, they are looking at kharkiv, they are looking at kherson, they are looking at kyiv to chernihiv and they say yo-mayo, what are they, the khokhlys, they are going to win damn it, those who watch them understand this, but many live in their own bubble, where they watch the first channel belarus one belarus two belarus three and then russia eh one satellite when in the 20th year, they destroyed the media, very quickly hundreds of small and

great russian artists came who simply filled this information void, and here the task is, of course, for us to somehow block and, well, fight this propaganda, but everything depends on this. in which information spaces and from what sources people get information and they follow ukraine. by the way, 11% of belarusians watch ukrainian media, it is interesting. because before the war, it was 2%, they only watch, they understand and they are looking for how to help. what can they do for change, but many simply do not have this information. enough , but what can be said about shostky, there is lukashenko and so on, i think that when the big auction begins, it will not be lukashenko that will be expensive, but lukashenko and belarus will be traded, and it is very important for putin to have this contingent as large as possible, wide throughout belarus and its agents of each institution so that later

when ukraine starts to win, it is necessary to negotiate about peace, then he will say well, then i will leave belarus for myself, and here it will be a very important moment for the west to be ready to firmly stand that belarus should be independent, but also for belarus to be a belarusian belarusian society the nomenclature also had their say, so that there would be no trade and commerce with belarus and belarusian sovereignty, and belarus would not become such a consolation prize for lukashenka for putin, yes vitalik sorry that is, in the midst of various opinions , the opinion about the trade of belarusians is not excluded. well, relatively speaking, putin, in order to get rid of the west, will say well, yes, i didn’t go. he takes lukashenka and he means there are generals or something. hmm, did i

understand you correctly ? he jumps. he will do that, okay. i will leave there from donetsk region, luhansk oblast, it may be about crimea, but i left belarus for myself, and the war-weary west will say well, okay, then i leave belarus for itself. to become belarusians and the world and why do you think , mr. franik, that putin is bent on somewhere in the donbass or crooked ? it is possible to reduce at least this choice, there are people, mr. frank, and there are people, for example, around you , around tikhonovskaya, who today are developing a plan of action

. will be written in the event of lukashenko's failure, the first step is like this, the second is like this, the third is like this, the fourth is like this, and we come to a liberal version of belarus instead of a socialist soviet one, then it will be clear for the west, with whom we are playing, what we are playing for, what we are investing in, and so on and so forth is there already a yes there is our proposal that we passed on to our main partners and what, by the way, we discussed this with the ukrainian authorities , the first important thing is to withdraw russian troops from belarusian territory and therefore when there will be conditions for the withdrawal of russian troops from ukraine. we also say that what belarus has done should also be withdrawn. otherwise, belarus and these troops

will pose a threat to europe and ukraine in the future. with the new democratic elections very, very quickly , the implementation of reforms in the economic and political sphere to prevent a new lukashenko and quickly all steps necessary for european integration to establish relations with ukraine by western partners and neighboring states will be very important as soon as a window of opportunity appears for belarus to separate belarus from russia forever and ever, because if the empire is not defeated forever, if this imperial chauvinist remains there, how will there be a fire? we need to be sure that belarus will not again become the first first or among the first

victims if this empire there is now restored in years and that is why we are now talking about some plan of the european perspective for belarus' integration into european processes maybe the european days of partnership can be such a first step, we took a certain measure this year for the sake of europe, you know that belarus was the only country in europe that was not a member of the council of europe and now the council of europe threw out the lukashenka delegation and created a contact group on in the languages ​​with belarusians where only the representatives of democratic forces and this will be the first step also for the accession of belarus to the council of europe and well and it is clear that the termination of all agreements between lukashenka and putin e-e signed after the 20th year well and ideally a way out of all these binding unions like the dkb, the eurasian union, which simply destroys

our independence and keeps us on a leash from moscow, but look, this was not the content of the content of 2020 at the beginning of the election campaign, in fact there were no politicians in this election campaign who said as you say now and by the way, maybe that is why there was no or there was no there was no there was almost no there was no talk at all about geopolitical choice then where was there talk about the dismantling of the dictatorship the implementation of lukashenka and these people who went to the protests came out in such a way that in order to overthrow lukashenka, new elections should be held, but this consciousness is the national belarusian identity, it was born at these protests, people will become belarusian historical flags and white-red-white became the belarusian language is popular, however, tikhanovskaya began to speak belarusian, after all, this

process was launched in the 20th year, then everything was only about internal affairs, but the war catalyzed the processes of establishing the belarusian nation, and now it is very important to hide it. it's a pity that the elite intelligentsia were forced out of the country, and many were imprisoned, and that's why now the presentation of democratic forces is for us to hide er and culture and identity to lead all this development of developments, well, what kind of bonfire is er national even if it will be expensive yes yes to return later, as soon as there is an opportunity to return to belarus, many countries that were under soviet occupation passed through it. well, maybe belarus will also have to pass. thank you, mr. franik frank, the party was that public figure yes yes next, i just had a question. well, okay, no questions. everything is correct. thank you