they will immediately go over to our side, there they will join the division of the kospis kalinovsky and that will be the end of it, that is, even for a certain period i agreed with you that such a thing was going on - the impression that it would be good for us if they entered and that all of this the case ended quickly, such scenarios are insanely possible, but we can have no doubt that lukashenko is very good at sociology inside belarus, and in my opinion, belarusians are at the level of special operations forces, which, by the way, are at the level of the special forces, which, by the way, were absolutely loyal to lukashenko when they dispersed the protests in the 20th year in august, if i am not mistaken about this own belarus, what i am leading to is that they will carry out the order and they will fight. that is, there will be some general surrender to prisoners. i would not expect in this sense from the other side at this at the moment, i can only quote more specialized military experts, or

groups there are absorbing different numbers. at the stage of increasing the preparation of exercises, about 11,000 is not enough to solve some , let’s say, significant tasks of the occupation ukrainian territory, but the task, for example, is to prevent the dispersion of the defense forces of ukraine, which could be involved, for example, in the east of ukraine in the south of ukraine. of course, they fulfill this task. the union, if this issue could be removed from the agenda on the part of belarus, everything would end at the front in our favor much, much faster, this is a medical fact . about the invasion from belarus, we can talk about some options, how do you see it, where will these russian-russian troops go, of course, well, the option, you understand, is that kyiv suggests itself, but i am already considering it, which

is too obvious to be uhu well, in fact, there are not so many that connect the east and west of ukraine or the defense centers of ukraine. this is, for example , cutting again on the surface. this is volyn, this is the western north of ukraine. that is, it is rivne region and, let's say, a co-creation, in addition to the hiding of the defense forces of ukraine, the shackling of the known and i e road and of railway nodes is the infrastructure of volodymyr's railway infrastructure, the beginning is political, directly energy, of course, well, as we can see now that with the energy infrastructure, they do not succeed, even in relation to their logic, with high-precision weapons systems, there are diluted calibers, there hasto, the first missiles, chieran mopeds or shakets, etc. that is, this also on the surface, but on the other hand,

well, i don't want so much viewers as to calm myself down. i have no doubt that there and at the level of the regular defense forces of ukraine and at the level of three that are part of the defense forces of ukraine, grant me the fire at the level of the kopachis placed in stara birshtino, the defense force there is being prepared quite carefully, and i have no doubts about this in relation to bahmut, there is information that the ukrainian forces have probably achieved tactical success to the east and south of bahmut in the last 72 hours. can you confirm this? perhaps you can explain in more detail what paths and prospects this opens up for us and my colleagues. regarding bakhmut, i can only hold my fists , pray and report to the armed forces while in tbilisi. i would very much like to trust this

information according to well, let's say yes, according to indirect signs. i have acquaintances who know georgians who are fighting there. this information is carefully confirmed. thank you, mr. volodymyr volodymyr kopchak, military expert leader of the south caucasian branch, the center of gravity of conversion and disarmament in tbilisi and now our next interlocutor is the former ambassador of the united states to ukraine, the head of the eurasia center in atlantic consol john gerbs, congratulations mr. john good evening well, let's all try to understand what vladimir putin wants now, what does he want, and by the way, i want to start the conversation with today's interview, which the president of the french republic, manuel macron, gave in three editions to the french e- he gave an american eye to a leading lebanese publication and in this interview he

says that ukraine should receive a security guarantee, but at the same time it cannot join nato with russia i often say that i have lost logic , because if there is russia that threatens ukraine, ukraine can not be accepted into nato. why then will ukraine accept nato if there is a russia that will not threaten it, this is the logic of the development of security guarantees for ukraine, alas, we understand the logic of macron and first of all, he wants her to provoke moscow. don't look at what moscow is leading. greece is against ukraine. thank god that he said that ukraine needs a punisher, a real guarantee. it's good, but after all, she will read the tape. i pay a lot of attention to you. and with the russian

aggressor, this is definitely a problem. what can be done in your opinion? in this situation, in principle . and president balin better understands the situation than macron, but still, the understanding of the administration is not enough, well, if america is fighting, it behaved like the leader of nato. macron's opinion was not important, as bain said during the visit zelensky that we can't be with you until the end

, that ukraine lost this war, but he also said that ukraine should win, and unfortunately, i would say the same thing from this logic, and banin said that we don't give all the military equipment that ukraine is asking for a-a and this is because he himself is not ready now, the conclusion is that american interests are required for ukrainian victory, this is also the problem of joseph byte at the hotel, he will ask you why, on the one hand, there is such moral support, we will be with you until the end, and on the other sides, we don’t want the technique to be suitable for you, and the argument is that we don’t want to escalate. and where is the further

escalation? well, there’s only the nuclear war of the second one, probably already all that the russians could have used, that from the speech of bain, which is important and good for ukraine. it seems to me that banya 5 understands that it is impossible to give russia has an opportunity for ukraine , that's why they are giving you help, so that you can prepay this opportunity, well, it seems to me that he is trustworthy, his team does not look at this question logically, they believe that the war is coming to that the moment when putin understands the russian leadership, he understood that it is impossible to conquer ukraine, and then ukraine and russia must take

the prikarbors to find compromises. make in stupky in order to achieve peace. today and do it today and too , this is logic, but some kind of gift for the aggressor, and certainly this is not good, not for ukraine, not for the world and for america, let me think why, according to putin, yes the subject lives on responded to the patriot system, this is a bluff, or is he really not very worried about the appearance of new

american weapons in kiev? novels the blow of their policy in ukraine because if they understand that we give coal everything that is needed, putin wants to defeat his regime for him, this nightmare is also from what biden said after the meeting with the zelensky that he in principle, he is ready to talk with putin if russia is ready for peace negotiations. as you can see, on the one hand, russia is shelling very harshly every day, and the

peaceful population of ukraine is hitting critical infrastructure, on the other hand, and putin does not completely sever any such ties, this is permissible there in the grain agreement in the grain agreement ah my analysis of the grain agreement is that putin went to it because he needs ron irdovan очень этот тел about putin, after all, the book recognized the need for the world it seems to me that there would be a trial if putin said that he is ready now, er, for a truce

, a-namely, everything is on each side, because this is a--and it can be a temptation for baden, it can be a bathhouse, i will accept, because i am so ready for putin to lead a real negotiations when he is in no way ready for a real one. tell me, what do you think of this idea itself? yes, the war should end at the negotiating table, but how much is realistic? well, almost all wars turn on the negotiating table . yes, 100% of the problem is that russia

is occupying i don't know 20% 22% of ukraine and we know that if the battle was over we sent you all the military force that you are asking for and you took it back almost and everything can be all this territory and it is mine look at this weakness and the weather of the administration is bad that they are not ready to work precisely for this series and for the speech of volodymyr zelensky in the congress, and he, in principle, from all the reactions that we saw international experts of the political establishment and of america and ukraine and the european world the leaders still recognized that

zelensky's speech was very strong and that the attitude towards him has changed a lot since the full-scale invasion of the russian federation into our territory. i consider a-a a full-fledged colleague, i apologize, i forget russian. i consider zelensky’s visit a gift from god, and the upcoming victory of ukraine, and it seems to me that as a result of this visit, the relationship between zelenskiy is better a-a, too, and anna is not yet, or a weak opinion about the zelensky a-a

congress is more, and zelensky too a-a well, they are quite right on all the same a-all the same pot , he turned to the congress, all his ego is just or even more or more guns and that’s good and in general zelensky supported the position of ukraine in america and that’s why the reaction was so negative and son, they realized that it ’s not yet between kyiv and washington and they became better as a result and tell me how do you in general , you think that the next congress will work it is clear that this speech by president zelensky is very much addressed to you, and the

current convention is the most important one. what is the next congress that will be trained? republicans will be ready for the same amount of aid to ukraine. today and the congress tomorrow, but there is a faction in the republican party that understands american interests a-a victory of ukraine o-o-o well something faction is weaker today than before our elections a-a in september and in november and they can influence the chorus of politicians in the house of representatives, but they have so much power to change the support for ukraine in the congress

. thank you very much. thank you very much. and we continue all these international topics now in a conversation with a russian sociologist and a political expert and playing a medman . putin's speeches to the colleagues of the ministry of defense in front of the directors of military-industrial enterprises, and they say that tula and the urals fought for this speech, in fact, all the activity is devoted to the war, even to the detriment of the ambassadors of the federal assembly . i would so briefly give him

just some kind of beer, the alternative is this. the payment perfectly understands that losing this war will lead him there. he left the defendants boats in kyiv. i don’t know in moscow. chick, but he will not be able to retain power , most likely, the weather will not live, if they stop, and he understands that the court means that they have fled, and he understands that the only chance for him , what a potential one, is this famous ancient maxim, yes, winners are not judged , if in even if you win in the card, they carry it like this, he roughly reasons, therefore, with all his might, he needs to achieve some kind of lunch in this war. the number of rockets, whatever, that's why his activity is crazy at the end of the year, unexpected for him, that is, he is such a man, in principle, lazy, and he doesn't like everything, he doesn't like it for a

very long time, and he could n't force himself. this war is because he was simply adored. this is what people who recognize relatives who work with him say in elementary terms, but the situation simply drove him to the brink of what is called a stumbling block. he should act in the role of not even the commander-in-chief, but the main persuader or the main appeaser who calms the russian population or what is called hanging noodles in the ear , the teeth are talking what nothing nothing we war, everything is nothing, the chicken, the glutton, does not worry, does not worry. etipa friend and a society aiming for such a victory, it is waiting for some positive result, not for this result, and will

gradually fall into such a depression, especially after the beginning of mobilization, the anxiety in society has doubled, even court social scientists have recorded this, so that here he is trying to - firstly, how to invest in this war in your mythical unattainable victory all the means in the fact that whether personal time is there, more briefly about it on the one hand, and he tries to persuade society and before his elites so that everything is not bad, so that they do not go against him, so that there is a time when he did not lose control again . to your people that this is exactly such a burdensome process, and from the military to the fsb, the atf , the presidential administration, the administration of the president of the security council, the answer to the safety of the security guard, then only the security guard that leaves what you have to carry you know, i even saw some kind of system in it,

which the last time i saw the signal from it in the film was not spring, remember everything there. that’s how documentation was prepared, not even in the reich itself, but in this film, until hitler, something reached hitler there, bormann or someone i still brought these papers there, in general, the time necessary for decision-making has already passed, let's face the truth, how funny i am china there, there was no candle in the office, but this is a very bad frank, or even in poland, in fact, the american press also writes that in putin lives in an information bubble there is such an infection of social networks around him, that is, his uh, information, they give him only here a pharmacy that he is waiting for, that he likes, and this is the basis of this information, it makes inadequate decisions, it begins there on february 24 and even if i'm fighting, that's the main thing . well, why am i saying that it's so because it's very characteristic , in principle, it's always been

like that for russian officials? the governor sits and that's all, the main tasks of the officials are not to form correctly, not to help the governor to form the right corner, yes, and the main thing is that the governor will guess this task, and in order to please, you need to give only the information that you will like later , which bring bad news only because you can't attract them, and that's it the basis of this information bubble of putin lives and accepts the decision and how do we species have an absolute rational decision and even now i am sure that he is persuading of course not only or that society, but from itself, that everything is not bad, everything is a little ahead, then, and the officials around him, including you emit everything in complicated ways when they get information from him, they visibly ask him for confidence, so i will make inadequate decisions based on that что еще всё не плохо , even the second moment when the witch can have a projectile crash into the gate or at the door of the bunker. he

will still think that it's nothing and that dude is somehow flying, it's just not the elite, but specific russian ones. for example, putin said that the russian state will do everything to provide them with everything necessary, but nevertheless we see uh and social networks and then when they are captured there, for example, that they are absolutely not provided, and there are big problems with the picture of the world in putin's head and and in reality, i think that it is absolutely necessary for him that the military is chocolate for everyone, and everyone means that payments are being paid, etc., but we know that based on the format that follows from the site and social networks, etc. that all these things are always talked about as always, theft is always a problem, and even these military men do not even have access to these payments that we

promise for a long time. that ’s actually yes, please , it’s really raining for someone to cover it, sorry, somewhere, it really works somewhere, but nevertheless, the right of social networks , etc. because in general, we are interested in the fact that they will supply all russian military units , including contract workers, 100% in the mo -too, such and such a steppe. people who don't earn, they begin to feel a little pinched by themselves, liberated, and actually this is such explosive material

that can be in the case of obvious and there can be deeper military defeats, he can detail this material of the army's shortcomings the armies of discontent, the armies of how it was planted, at least we would like to hear your opinion about lukashenko's visit to moscow, and only recently, putin was a liaison in minsk, if lukashenko is now going to putin, does this mean that at the previous meeting, putin did not receive everything for example, i agree that belarusian troops will directly take part in the war against ukraine, or maybe putin wants to squeeze something else out of lukashenko . that kind of thing just doesn't happen, well, no matter how much they don't love each other, and that's how unpleasant it can be, of course, we would fantasize that we would communicate, but in world practice , in world diplomacy, that kind of thing does not happen when

, like a sherlock with a mask, you know putin if it's only a mistake it didn't happen there, where lukashenko is going to putin, this obviously means that you know some problems in the negotiations, that there are some problems, as they say in the people , they did not pay attention to something that putin apparently did not receive, that you are lukashka, or it can be lukashenko, that - that was to be announced after departure putin, and he didn’t announce it again, he calls it out , but here i want to say that putin is acting clearly, lukashenko is clearly visible, so far, belarus has entered the war . if belarus goes to war, it may become a big problem for putin after some time, because i, and not only count even lukashenko forward to the emissions eh, moreover, to fight only shenko sold peace

as his main commodity, we have a dictatorship, but everything is somehow calm and so ukraine now, if there is no war there, and the last island of his laziness, it will be destroyed, and it can lead simply to the real 2 days already the belarusian people against not only the ukrainian and the belarusian people against the russian occupiers, this is not the fulfillment of a real perspective, as my belarusian acquaintance believes, the expert tell me, do you really think that this is the lagodyn hotel to get into er beauty, i wanted to get into i don't know how to call it into the ass rogozin well, i knew exactly where, in which part of the body you wanted to get into, i don't know, but it's very similar to what that is, how would this be the final development of the conflict, the public conflict, everything he does not invent anything that happened between each of us in the hallway. he simply openly decorated the

rug . in russia, and some insider data, too. i think that er , rakozhen leaked the arrival coordinates of the rokoznavka in this restaurant and in the ukrainian ukrainian part of the ancestor, that’s what the people who recognize who encountered him in st. petersburg say something absolutely ego-poor. he works like that with other people's hands, he always merges information against competitors against rakov, and the competition between them was obvious, because karakuy asked himself to get into prihozhanskoy polyana, arranges there some of his own, well , volunteer units demand them there budgets that get used to smacking the hallways. in general, he doesn’t need another hungry wolf in donbass, who has eaten up huge russian military budgets, which are now sawing everything with the active participation of everyone and drive away the hungry pcts

of the hands of non-officials. what is the output of the drop not? as people say to me, people who own such a primary, what is called the information already in the laptop, the information system on the competitor, so it can be pretty early or late location of putin, a message from someone for good money is good and it is and you are mine, write it out, i have no doubt that he will do it if we throw it away. so far, it is not profitable. he is naturally hated by the officials with whom he is in conflict with many , not only a sleepy dream, an inveterate st. petersburg governor, and so on . he will have a new roof, let's see, maybe it's not putin, they wrote, well, the birthday rug was successful, he won't have a leg now, and the old one may also refuse. it's not yet known whether he will have a second one, but hmmm, he deserved

it . killing ukrainians will never understand, well , what can't be done with prigozhin. he can also understand that there are chances about it. i also wanted to ask about the next threat of the president of russia, putin, to the nuclear war. he specifically said that he would develop a nuclear war. russian, yes, this is a guarantee of the preservation of the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the country. this is how to understand the territorial integrity of russia , mrs. igor. yes, he tells the russian people that nato is threatening russia, they will attack. that is why we attacked first as a preemptive measure. but he himself knows that no one he did not intend to attack and that he is the aggressor, and then territorial integrity means the occupied territories of ukraine, or does it still have a