and i want us to live in exactly the same way, but many of them came here from time immemorial and they fertilized our land in a good way again and we will rebuild again , then we will live, they left in a hurry, almost this departure was uh-uh organized, how to say uh-huh, that is, big, they ran, they ran two or three convoys left at the same time at maximum speed, the convoy in the end lived for a short time, a little more than a month, then it died in agony , burned out and rotted in scraps on the roads of the kyiv region in buch, borodyanka, ivankov, and dymer, only small pieces of it were loaded with laundry with cars, televisions and doghouses, they were able to answer the north, the convoy left behind ruins and ashes, but something changed the people. they still tremble from loud sounds , shudder from the roar of powerful engines, we

were on their own land. she came from there. somewhere in the woods, russia is not in a series of jokes stories and a dark thousand-footed thousand- legged creature capable only of killing and torturing. so she created a real hell on earth. so, each of us still has scars on our hearts. but despite the fear, the pain and suffering, we endured, endured and endure. before , there was a desire to do something with money, to do good for the family, about the state somehow got sidetracked, since it, roughly speaking, does not help me, and because of two, i need to raise a family, this is my task, and in this case, now it has gone a little more global, you need to understand well, don't understand if you are a ukrainian at heart you have to help the country and not

only the family ukrainian ukrainian women today millions of people celebrate christmas according to the gregorian calendar i once again congratulate everyone who is celebrating right now these days and i want you and i once again thanked together, and we thanked all those who, these days and at any other time, do everything so that you and i can live our lives and live in our country. thank you to each of our soldiers, all military personnel, all air force fighters, anti-aircraft guards, scouts, border guards the national guardsmen need barons for the naval forces. thank you to every soldier and sailor, every sergeant and foreman, every officer, their general, who hold the front and try to push it further to our borders, where we have to go. thank you to everyone who repairs and supplies equipment to all

who are volunteers thank you to all our medics and everyone who saves our wounded on the battlefield thank you to all the nurses who do their work selflessly in the circumstances thank you to everyone who helps provide hospitals to everyone who comes to donate blood for wounds to everyone who came now to kherson and to help save the wounded from the attack of terrorists on christmas, artillery mortars against ordinary streets of kherson, not people, every russian killer will be found and i thank everyone who works for this, to all investigative teams , prosecutors, officials, diplomats. thank you to each and every one who helps to get ukrainians out of captivity. thank you to all our energy

workers and mine repairmen. police officers. which ensures the life of our economy and the financiers who receive our stability. thank you to the users who voted. thank you to the officials who care about people and businesses who help society to be indomitable, as if to our farmers. thank you to the farmers who did not give up last spring, who are preparing for the next one. thank you to all the journalists who spread the truth and public figures who help our people keep faith in themselves and in victory. thank you to all the leaders of the nations of the world who , together with ukraine, became leaders in the defense of freedom and next year, i believe. i know that together with us they will do everything to become leaders of the world. it is possible. dear ukrainians , how many days have we left this year? we must be aware of what our enemy will try to do . this time is dark and difficult for us. russia

lost this year. everything is trying to compensate for the losses of its propagandists after the missile strikes on our country on our energy. i know that the darkness will not prevent us from leading the occupiers to their new defeats, but we must be ready for any scenarios, please listen to the aerial herbs these days again, please search and remember where the nearest point of unbreakability is, tell parents how to find the point of unbreakability if it is needed, it is already open across the country more than five and a half thousand points, please take care of yourself and be ready to help others when ukrainians are together when ukrainians are grateful to each other not to defeat us let it always be like this and it will be like this i am sure glory to our strong beautiful best people glory to ukraine kremlin

indicates russia's plans to renew the offensive on ukraine, and the invitation to negotiations are only attempts to gain time for preparation, with such not very pleasant words for us , nato secretary general stoltenberg spoke the other day, actually confirming as if fears that the war is far from over; besides this, the head of the kommannoevich zasuv valery zaluzhnyi also talks about attempts number two, he announced a possible re-offensive of the occupiers. he says that russia is preparing approximately 200,000 fresh soldiers. well, if you add to that putin's visit to belarus, the transfer of russian troops to belarus that is, it is quite possible to assume that they are preparing a bridgehead there for a new offensive on ukraine, i propose to talk about this and talk at night, precisely because the night watch is with you, maria vasilievna nataliya ostrovska, i and venglinsky are visiting us, the head of the ukrainian center for security and cooperation, serhiy kuzan. thank you for visiting. i don't

know mr. serhiy. last year, about exactly a year ago, when the whole world was saying that a russian invasion of ukraine was possible. we were very skeptical about it, but today when the whole world says that the second repeated large-scale offensive of russia could be our uh, and our commanders-in -chief and our military experts all say that this is a possible scenario, but well, we all lived for 10 months in anticipation of that what, what, what, a week or two, a maximum of five and russia will fall, the 10th month of the war is coming to an end, russia is not falling, and we are frankly saying that the war is dragging on, the war will be long and repeated, what are the prerequisites and what are the facts that say that that this can really happen and it can happen in the coming months, well, first of all, this article

is about various scenarios of the military, and the military, as you know, always prepares for the worst scenario, and it is clear that this is a calculation based on the condition of constant mobilization of the mobilization capacity of the russian the federation consists of 130-150,000 people, in order to train them, it will take two to three months, and so, this figure is taken from this calculation during the winter plus those who are currently at the bases. and from this, we will receive this possible figure of 200,000 in the spring they need to be armed with something, that is, they should not be just infantry units. and at least they are motorized , and therefore it is necessary to remove the equipment from conservation , carry out corrective work, repairs and the like, then we can already talk about full-fledged combat units, but this is on the condition if everything remained as it is and simply, well, how to say in perfect condition, but our armed forces constantly

destroy these plans of the enemy. and by the way, the number of these losses that we see is a clear evidence of the fact that, well, we are - we are disrupting the plans of the enemy and in the matter of equipment and in the matter of these chmobics, well, on the newly mobilized valery with alkalines in a silver button. yes, for more than 100,000 soldiers destroyed. and if there is a repeat offensive, we all remember what happened on february 24. it was a large-scale missile attack, then land offensive, in what form it might be now, or in the coming months. if it does happen, well, first of all, we have an advantage in all areas of the front, and if it was not long ago for us, we were so worried about how on the donetsk line, that is, in the bakhmut area, soldier, what is there they say, there was a threatening situation already during the last week at least, and there we pushed back the enemy forces and there, that is, we are actually seizing the initiative. so, for everyone

on the entire section of the front, from kharkiv oblast to kherson oblast the advantage, the initiative in this war belongs precisely to the defense forces. of course, it is necessary to strengthen these areas first of all, but besides that. well, it is clear that the russians are capable of such illogical steps. as a bridgehead for belarus, i.e. for an attack on kyiv or, perhaps, on volyn in order to cut off the main communication routes. that is , of course, we depend on western aid, and therefore it is obviously logical to at least put it under the threat of some kind of fire control such ways and thus reduce the speed of the delivery of this aid. that is, these are different scenarios that are being considered, but at the moment none of them can be implemented by the

russians . they want it clearly, but what they will be able to do is a big question, and i just want to remind our viewers and ourselves that , firstly, the ukrainians are preparing to defend this direction very strongly, and secondly, even those territorial defense units which are created in the border regions is actually a very formidable force against e those are no longer as numerous e-e troops as we could e-e see on february 24, and if it didn’t work out then, it seems to me that now the probability is even less. well, we are again we constantly fall into a trap when we try, er, some things that make it easier for us to perceive all this, to judge from some rational considerations, we already saw on february 24 that there

may not be anything rational in the actions of russia and its ally lukashenka, that is, it is not necessary at all proceed precisely from rational considerations that everything can be quite the opposite well, but here then they will be met as symbolically in our memes they draw with these graters and hinting at what they know how to do on both sides of the border of the ukrainian-belarusian border and there is something to meet them here and here i am actually, i wanted to pass the question on to mr. serhiy again, tell me how much security measures are currently being prepared at the border, what are they capable of doing, they are capable of stopping this presumably probable group right at the border, what will it be anyway? invasion at some er-er certain distance inside ukraine and ukraine and further on they will be torn apart again by these columns and smashed again they also know that we are preparing to meet them and of course they know and

er well this time that is, the columns of our territory , and as they did in february, they cut off the beginning, blocked the beginning, and the end . things, he was engaged in strengthening the border of this summer demarcation in donbas, all this time, all these months, our six months, he is engaged in strengthening the entire state border on the territory of belarus, that is, engineering structures, engineering equipment, fortification, fenced mini fields, all these things have already been exhibited, and the specifics of our northern border are -e it differs from the east because if, for example, in the east, in the south, there is such a bare steppe or, well, there are fields of flags, you can easily walk. just in the north, there are forested swamps on the terrain there are not many such ways where you can

move big once they prepared a map to show where belarus was attacked from, let's show it in a few seconds and now the directors are rushing to but here we are , it is already there, now it will appear in us, where in which region most likely, here we have it, mr. sergey, that is, it will be more convenient for us to comment on our western direction, yes. the one you said that, on the belarusian side, they can try to cut some supply routes, but here through kovel passes the well-known warsaw highway, which was actually built for military purposes, and it is in brest that

a large number of russian troops are now concentrated. yes, there is a road there to kovel, there is a road to sarny, in fact, somewhere in this region is the rivne nuclear power plant . it is about 70 kilometers from the belarusian border. lukashenko dreams of a nuclear power plant. energy well, it can also be such an attractive target for them, well, the zhytomyr direction is korosten zhytomyr well, then only kyiv is the direction where they have already broken their teeth yes, and they have lost the possibility of an offensive, well, let's look at the map and continue our conversation, what do you they said that everything is possible from what you listed, of course, that in theory it is possible with the possible, and there are various scenarios of the landing of the landing force, including the nuclear power plant and other objects, that is, but the most important thing is that if at any point there is under the threat is precisely the warsaw highway, it is obvious that the pace of delivery can in theory be

interrupted, but there are just problems with the delivery of already regular parts to these directions. swampy area and if it is a dense forest, it is obvious that heavy equipment will not pass through this area if it freezes, even if the ground freezes. there is a cross, so they will not crumble. this is already a problem. and by the way, it is a swamp here, even in this and in another case, therefore, in fact, the concentration will take place in uh, such in the main four , five directions well, in fact , it simply does not make sense to seriously consider any offensive, therefore, from a military point of view, it will be a difficult operation. and by the way, our

head of intelligence, budanov, made a very good forecast at the beginning. you can say that you are ahead of the western ones. analysts, he made the best forecast about a possible invasion, and now his statements are just evidence of the fact that there are no such units that could currently threaten the north of our country, even in the west, even though kyiv, but the american literally today declared after budanov 's statement that after all russia preparing and leaving are completely different things, but in sumy oblast, literally, the other day , the russian army came and tried to break through , supposedly checking our ground defense and readiness, so why are they letting you in, these army are now there all the time by the way, we in our analysis, we avoid sumyshchyna and chernihivshchyna, especially now sumyshchyna, they are constantly under russian shelling. that is, there are also mortar shells and

artillery shelling. you see, this is such an everyday job, and that is why we cannot write off the agenda of this particular region. chernihiv, sumy direction is the direction of kyiv, the capital and actually yes, but taking chernihiv is a 100 km road to kyiv, and what did they fail to do? despite their powerful groups that they threw there, i still cannot understand the issue of the relationship between putin and lukashenka in the context of his desire or unwillingness to participate in this war, because we are there, it is not clear, because in the passive voice, we need to contact each other, in the video , lukashenko and putin chatted at the airport, there was a bouquet

of flowers, then they hugged, then they left together, and lukashenko gently stroked below putin's back. i think i advised him to ride in his car, they sat in putin's car and they say that uh well, the experts interpret it, they say, just as the audience sees them sitting on putin, and they cut this frame and it is interpreted, they say, even though putin came to minsk, but he feels like the master in this situation and he dictates the conditions under which lukashenko has already visited russia seven times, and that's not counting meetings with putin at other international meetings, five days of people seeing everything cannot do without each other to live, i think that we will see for sure when valentine's day will be, if they spend it together we will know for sure, i understood that, first of all, i think that somewhere so

many people had fun together, they will hang together, of course, that's exactly what we're talking about, if we're talking seriously, then eh we are constantly talking about the fact that putin is trying to persuade lukashenka to enter this war, but in my opinion, lukashenka is already in a situation where the only chance for him to maintain his power in belarus, to maintain his status and this dictatorship, is an absolute victory for putin, so well, we understand about gray putin, about gray lukashenko, and the same tribunal awaits him in the neighboring cage, because they will not fit into one, and here the question arises as to who is persuading whom, perhaps lukashenko is acting out and negotiating, which is not at all about what we are talking about. we think what they are saying that putin is constantly talking, and maybe there are some negotiations going on regarding the gifts that lukashenka can get, and if he agrees, then the invasion of ukraine

is your opinion, are we not misleading ourselves by trying to force to believe everyone that lukashenka is still hesitating, we need to understand that there are different development scenarios and, according to the scenario, which are accepted by lukashenko and the scenarios are acceptable to putin, because they still have different views on politics, and although belarus and lukashenko personally, he is completely dependent on russian money, but here are our victories at the front. they change the scenario, which can be . for example, lukashenka has a desire to lead the union state, which can be, but after putin, it is obvious, that is, even then, his power is strengthened, everything that limits his power it is obvious that he is against it, because this is his nature, this is his psychological type, that is, he will be against any limitation of power, he will hold on to power until the end, under any conditions, if the government if putin does not guarantee him

power in belarus, then he will definitely turn his knives against putin if he negotiates with china and receives some kind of assurance. for example, that is, since the asian states received it, it is quite possible that he is already conducting some separate agreements with china. a sign the fact that russia saw these attempts of lukashenka to somehow run there to secretly negotiate with the countries of the west or, in principle, other partners besides russia, and this sudden death of his became such a signal to lukashenko that this should not be done. what do you think? i absolutely support it . that there can't be a sudden death at such a level and the head of the ministry of foreign affairs cannot be a trusted person, he was really such a soldier of lukashenko, that is, it is obvious that he fulfilled the will of lukashenka, so that he was so pro-western, he had an education

accordingly, he had good connections in the west and was quite liberal compared to other lukashenka officials, so he is the most important thing that the heads of other western agencies and western intelligence and the west in general and not only the west talked to him, that is, he was the window that of the negotiator, it is obvious that his death is , first of all, secondly, the arrival, well, you can say so, a key figure . to provide these guarantees if there is no person, respectively, the institutions in authoritarian states simply do not work. therefore, the death of mckay, then his arrival, and then, for the first time in a long time, the arrival of putin, and now lukashenko, despite the fact that he was frankly afraid, after the death of mckay, he was afraid to visit russia, well, now already he is flying to

putin again. well, what we saw on the camera, by the way, i don't think it's putin personally. i think it 's a younger double, and that's why lukashenko allowed himself to bear about uh, at least you although such a putin is in belarus for 10 summers, there is also a double of putin, not him on the outside. he is the junior coach of the doubles, er, four er, experts say, er, putin has some idea, er, yes, we don't know, but let's get to our conversation let's get ihor tyshkevych, an analyst at the ukrainian institute of the future, to ask his opinion about who is dancing who there and whether lukashenko is really hesitating about something there and what mr. ihor's bids can revolve around he hesitates. he decided everything for himself a long time ago, and now there are just such negotiations that lukashenka can get in the event of the success of this campaign, which everyone is talking about now.

okay, great question, but what company is he talking about, which we are silent about now, and i am a bit confused about something i don't understand, we are talking about the fact that belarus can enter this war and, uh, for the beginning of 2023, a major offensive is being prepared, either on kyiv or on the western regions of ukraine, and that the strike can come from the territory of belarus, the army is already directly involved lukashenko well, let's divide it into several parts, first, it is being prepared for the beginning of the 23rd year, and well, please look at the calendar. i am more than sure. yes. in principle, in the end . if we say, let's assume that it was about the month of february, because the transfer of more or less the great group is

no less than 2/3 and the second part is the participation of the belarusian armed forces as of today, the combat-ready part, the combat-ready part of the belarusian armed forces, this is approximately 10-12,000 people, because the total number of the armed forces of the republic of belarus is 65,000. were also, well, at least they were opened in the summer of this year to the belarusian army, it was about 30%. well, depending on the type of troops, we can say that the total number of military personnel in belarus is from 37 to 40, there are one thousand people, and the third and most of these military units are as of today, it is formed by belarusians, it is called staffed units, it

means that let's assume that according to the documents, the brigade is in reality a means of composition, and the loss of the battalion, and before the staffing of these units, it is, accordingly, a conscription company, certain preparatory work, of course, it was carried out, this is a reconciliation of data, but in addition to the fact that you are conscripting, you have to prepare a person to take them to the training ground at least once. therefore, from the moment of such a prize to the moment when these troops will be well, at least theoretically ready for performance of any tasks, i mean a larger part than what is combat-ready today , that's about 2-3 weeks, 30 part is not a deployed medical service, so certain summonses were sent to medics, but of the four medical facilities of the ministry of defense of the republic of belarus, this well, hospitals are so -called according to the territorial attachment, as of today, 1 € for repairs 3 well, let's say so, it is a very worrying thing that

vacation schedules for the 23rd year have not yet been approved, which means that doctors may or may not be released, but there is no readiness yet, why then, in the information space, for several weeks we have been talking about what kind of involvement lukashenka might be talking about in this war, when you state the facts, which are difficult to argue with and which speak of what you say, why do we we're talking i don't know why you're talking, you asked me, i gave an answer there is still a democratic diplomatic side, we see the deterioration of lukashenka's and putin's relations 5 days have not passed since lukashenka's last visit putin to lukashenka here again he flies well usually in recent years there have been no such signs, as can be seen in recent years, yes, meetings are a great pity, especially in the last year, putin lukashenko - it is approximately worth two or three weeks,

unfortunately, and if we talk about what russia will try to do as of today, on the one hand , she will gradually try to turn the belarusian regime into an absolutely toxic regime , because in fact, in order to make it impossible for any fraction of the official minsk from moscow to be impossible, what we know in history is the maneuver-menergame, remember that from the textbooks the 44th year of history, when nazi germany began to suffer defeat, to suffer defeat, what did the energy engineer do, and accordingly, it is necessary to make sure that any belarusian factor is beaten as much as possible, we do not shake hands with any common robber what in the west, what in the east, because the question is not only about the protection of the issues that over the passage a-a and accordingly tie belarus politically to the russian federation. the second part is the binding

of the economy. after all, due to the presence of other partners, russia is not can get can not cover the actual deficit because it is possible for someone in ukraine it will be very strange but we are talking about the deficit and semi-conductors e-e and electronics in the russian federation if someone does not know belarus has a full production cycle of equipment for the production of processors this is a photo technologically, the process is 65 nanometers, but it exists, it works, there is an analogue, which series is not produced, by the way, it is an analogue of what we know under the name himers . struggles that are effective, including, well, at least they were effective in iran in gray and in the left against the director in and american rappers