the third is the acquisition of certain technologies, which , again, due to the presence of other partners, so far russia cannot obtain, cannot cover the actual deficit, because it is possible for someone in ukraine, it will be very strange, but we are talking about the deficit of e-e semiconductors and electronics in russia federation, if anyone does not know, belarus has a full production cycle of equipment for the production of processors, this is photolithography, yes, according to the technological process of 65 nanometers, but it exists, it works, there is an analogue, which series does not produce it, by the way, an analogue and what we know under called himers. and this is the polonaise system, but it is chinese technology. there is enough success with those of the council of electronic bulbs of struggle, which are effective, including, well, at least they were effective in iran, all in gray and in the left against the director and american rappers, but we

do not get all this for russia the fact that lukashenko is not a patriot in any way. you are simply more powerful partners. let's say that if we compare putin's position, everyone will listen to zimpina. well, in minsk, they will listen to zimpina. if we talk about ordagan's position, here it is from the politics of turkey and azerbaijan depends on 40% of smuggling , let's call it the gates through which belarus bypasses the senses and this is very important for the official minsk position from the point of view of lukashenka himself. he is doing everything he can to preserve his own power. war is not war for him, this is the tenth issue of his own authorities and the key factor that is the state of affairs today is also the factors that frighten him, this is sociology in belarus, because if we take a sociological study in russia as an official

one, the coefficient that is available, we have data that approximately 70% of the population plus or minus 5%, they support the war against ukraine if we take a sociology of belarus that officially and unofficially we have a completely opposite situation from 70 to 80% of the population of belarus and this is the beginning of the war categorically against belarus taking part in the war against ukraine and a-and accordingly a-and i want to remind you that belarus is in a state of political crisis and if 70-80% are against it, including against and the electoral core of lukashynka, all those who support him today are not the majority. well, about a third of the population and in the conditions of a political crisis in conditions when you do not have full support to give orders that are not accepted even by those closest to you, this means in dictatorships. in this case, with a dictate, you can fall asleep one night and not wake up in the morning, and

lukashenko is also afraid of this and accordingly, what is putin doing now? returning to the beginning of the conversation, he saw that it is impossible to press down . well, what is called a single push? i said everything else, and the official minsk will try to maneuver to some extent. let's remember that after russia fled from kyiv , there was no shelling for a very long time . in the spring after it was in august and already at the beginning of autumn, the first time when the official bridge for the first time almost agreed on the partial participation of the grain agreement that through belarus they proposed let's

go through belarus ukrainian grain seems to be different from russia's positions which a-a gives official minsk a certain opportunity to say that attacking russia from the territory of belarus is not expedient, i mean to say to putin because belarus, well, it seems like that is a country of some mediocre people who even after it began to be discussed on the basis of the united nations organization and in the same the very day when it was announced on the resources of the un lukashenko faces putin's departure to st. petersburg from russia these are ukrainian missiles of course no one will believe lukashenko's diplomacy after this and the second is the end of september when several a-a meetings took place well, the deceased mock-ups surrounded by olympic diplomats began to say that consultations are going on again , the visit of lukashenka to russia again, i do not rule out, unfortunately, that now when lukashenko will be in russia again , rockets may come to us again, but

in parallel with those if we are talking about visits about the results, see how russia is gradually advancing, at first we agreed that a-a s- this grouping of troops is, as it were, belarusian-russian, it will operate constantly, the second part has already talked about such a thing as the territoriality of 30 so-called a nuclear club that you are now retooling your equipment, it will carry nuclear weapons with poison, accordingly, of course, there will be less trust in official minsk and less desire to talk to him, but the key thing is yes, gradually , gradually, and then lukashenko was pushed under the formal recognition of a- and russian annexations , starting with crimea and continuing, because if there is a formal recognition, like lukashenko's attempt today, out of fear, let's say so hesitate and say no, no, no, but formally, it's like russian, in that case it's already unambiguous norms exactly

of the treaty base for the union state, and here is russia , she is not in a hurry, but so time and time again , somewhere ah, at the expense of threats, where at the expense of just money, well, you just pay, where i access to markets, she led the belarusian to this very dangerous trait. thank you very much p igor, a very interesting and clear explanation, now we will discuss it igor tyshkevich , an analyst of the ukrainian institute of the future , we were in touch with a person deeply in this context, because this is really a real belarusian , listening to him explain, i initially thought that indeed, lukashenko no longer hesitates. yes, he is ready to play along with anything, but at the end, mr. ihor spoke up.

wars and reluctance to lose his political subjectivity as a dictator he is trying to drag out the introduction until the last uh putin wants to complete the task of weakening the power of lukashenka in the territory of belarus. and why does he need this because this project of putin's he thinks of such projects as these enclaves of gray zones like the dpr, the lpr, for example, abkhazia or transnistria, and now there is a great opportunity to create a whole state with full-fledged institutions, as well as with all powerful institutions, to turn it into such a garden, such a gray area, and in this way to completely take control, absolutely , we see this is his logic of actions during for the past 20 years, and that is, in fact, anything that

will weaken lukashenko's power and strengthen the role of the agency, which belarus is saturated with today is all in putin's favor if there is a war and the belarusian army is involved in this war and, for example, is defeated - this will strengthen the role of putin if for example, as a result of this war, it will be possible to implement some fsb plan and arrange some kind of palace coup , this will also strengthen the role of putin because, well, the western opposition is quite cleaned up on the territory of belarus, so of course he understands that. he understands that it is not in his interests , because in belarus only lukashenko has the right to love russia, and everyone else has the right. he tries to distance himself from it. and he feels threatened by such people and by this agency, but he acts in the russian paradigm and he his room for maneuver is extremely narrow, so there is a constant struggle, that is, who will win.

that is, this is such a classic story about sworn friends, but even in a duo, do they still have a wider coalition, for example, there is such a conspiracy version that china is following all this and it is giving permission to russia to belarus. you decide for yourself, but at the same time it is beneficial for him to show russia as a weaker state and it kept falling lower and lower . this conspiratorial version, er, there can be different versions , that is, even here i would not venture to think, that is, it is possible that at some stage china pretended to be good, and because in three days russia assured everyone and, by the way , assured our western partners that ukraine will not be now the opinion has changed, that is, all this was to be, but it is obvious that the most important key factor of this international policy is our defense forces. look at each of our

victories. in this region, they are already more hesitant, they are already looking for new wheels and new allies, and it is obvious that lukashenko is also looking for a european person to talk to in europe or someone to talk to in china. that he understands that putin's power is objectively weakening, his army is weakening , his security forces are weakening, russia itself is weakening. i would say that in fact lukashenko cut off other paths for himself, the one he chose now. simply if you stand in his position and understand the situation he found himself in... after rejecting such an emotional coloring, rejecting even a sober analysis, and simply understanding what he has to do now, it becomes clear that in fact he has no way out and nothing else to maneuver like this, because he broke pots with the whole civilized world, he quarreled with closest neighbors and all his bets are made on only one country. he allowed this country to actually absorb his own

country, because if you have possibly been to belarus, you know then that there is nothing belarusian there, that is, everything we call belarusian industry actually belongs to the russians industry, the entire oil and gas sector, it all belongs to the russians a long, long time ago. but everything was bought completely and it is not a figure of speech, so to speak, it is reality, so he has no choice but to maneuver because he put everything all the eggs are in one basket, as they say, but on the other hand, i noticed something that in recent months, when we see these missile attacks, i do not remember a single case of rockets being launched from the side of the belarusians, that is, of planes taking off from belarusian airfields, so that rockets flew from there to our on the other hand, i would like to ask you, mr. serhiy, what does this mean that lukashenko is still trying with all his might not to cross this last border or what he knows. surely ukraine will answer and he does not want it, because i see that ukraine

ukraine is very restrained in order not to respond to all these actions because it is still trying to maintain peaceful relations with the belarusian people so that there is no blood between us, this is very important, in fact, it's a thing, but how does lukashenko understand this or is this really his motive? what do you think ? do you think why are no missiles flying from belarus towards ukraine? well, the game is absolutely on and it is a fight for some kind of maneuver . here is the s-400 on my territory, that is, here i intend to arm myself with nuclear weapons and scanders again. that is, this is precisely the most convenient territory for those iskaters. that is, this is the territory of belarus, and on the other hand , he understands that the border may be crossed. and he is afraid for his power. that is, it is obvious that he would spoil his relations with ukraine so much

, that is, of course, he does not want this. and putin really wants it, so that ours, well, in fact, for this war to take place and for the belarusian people to be involved in this war. this is absolutely in interests of russia, because i completely agree with the speaker, and moreover, there is no full support for a possible war with ukraine either in society or in the army leadership, and even as early as february, the commanders of the units that would have the minsk units of the belarusian army already held certain negotiations with on the ukrainian side, what will they do if they do give this order and they will be drawn into this war? well, what do you imagine , that is, getting another brigade with equipment? for us, it would be a significant reinforcement well, of course, it was like that from the middle of belarus, if any one unit there does that and it will lead to a chain reaction on the territory absolutely, and i want to remind us in 2014 that the belarusian

army is not ready to kill, that is, exactly like in in the 14th year, this is a parade army, an army without combat experience, er, it’s called, it’s the basis of fighting spirit, if you don’t have it, what kind of equipment do you not arm yourself with, and everything will fall apart, we saw the example of afghanistan, when they did all these things, the states armed the best american equipment with which we not we didn't even have to dream about the ethics of the army that the afghans had at the expense of the united states and the western coalition in general. what did they fall against, that is, against people in slippers and with machine guns because there was no fighting spirit, but the belarusian army is not ready to kill ukrainians today, in contrast to things from russians to russians in society, we have gone through the process of e-e depopulation, that is, this time there is masculinization in their language when they really hate ukrainians, that is, everyone's essay concerns men, women, children, that is, they

they hate everyone. that's why they have this readiness to kill belarusians, but there is no such thing, although it would seem that there is a single information field, and lukashenko understands that this is his only such field for maneuver, and of course he can not rely on either his army or his people in this you mentioned nuclear weapons, which lukashenko dreams of getting, he openly and constantly talks about it, but the version that nuclear weapons in this russia can be used against ukraine from the territory of belarus is quite realistic and seriously considered, and what they say this is such a complex enough scenario that the civilized world will not know how to respond correctly because what they are saying to russia now sends direct signals that the use of nuclear weapons is a nuclear strike on russia or a non-nuclear but powerful strike on russia. but if belarus does it, then in fact the answer has to be on the territory of russia, but it will formally be on the territory of russia, and this is discussed not at the level of some media community there, but at the level

of european experts, at the level of members of the governments of european countries, what can this be and what then to what extent is this tool to be used in the conditions when what you described in a very interesting way, what is happening inside belarus , can become the key to how putin is trying to expose lukashenka and push him to do this, well, i would say to hide europe itself , that is, everyone the whole event, and i will only remind you that this is not the last method. that is, these are his hybrid methods. these special service methods of hybrid warfare also involve the use of nuclear or chemical weapons. and we have heard about, for example, the shelling of zaporizhzhya, or nuclear, for example. about the use of chemical weapons, what is possible, it will be somewhere in the occupied territories and the ukrainian side will do something like that, that is, now they are talking about something similar from the territory of belarus

. groping for possible defenses, well, if only the event itself on the subject of that. and how will he respond to what, well, all these things. they are a link, they are links of the same chain, and he is trying to at least somehow see where this weakness of the western countries will be, and so to things are ours it is also our principle that we do not accept any of these provocations and did not make concessions to putin. it is also very revealing for our western partners, and they rather their moscow centers make decisions, and you see they respond not linearly, that is, to the threat of application of nuclear weapons they say we will destroy with conventional weapons your entire fleet, your entire army, and you, too. so, any such threats, they must have an appropriate

response from the countries of the west, and of course they will have and just as the previous threats did not work because we no longer hear about all these chemical weapons and about the detonation of the dam, we do not hear about things like that, but it is exactly the same informational psychological operations so absolutely partner feels even more this week, the last landmark visit about which we can not remind volodymyr zelensky flew to the united states of america and immediately after his departure biden signed a record budget of 800 million dollars and probably lukashenko and putin see this and met after that visit after volodymyr zelenskyi and i want to ask you, after all, the continuation of the nuclear topic, are you observing preparations for the use of nuclear weapons on the territory of belarus and are there any prerequisites for this ? the components include the use of nuclear weapons and also a breakthrough on that wonderful

map along our border, an attack on kyiv, an attack on there, on the warsaw highway, on others, on the rivne npp, again, it’s the same a story about a nuclear threat, that is, all this is about instilling panic, and well, in fact, again, it is about establishing how stable we are , first of all psychologically. in fact, this time ukraine may not be too late with the answer specifically for the belarusian airfield. do you think this is possible? maybe, but there will be strikes only on russian russian-based facilities . yes, but not even on er, not even on the army of belarus because now it is not lukashenko who is even a big threat, namely the belarusian military infrastructure that he provides, and that is where the threat actually comes from, and also very large

stockpiles of weapons and ammunition left over from the soviet union, because if you listen to russian propagandists, then you can to hear a very common opinion, in particular from mr. ghirkin, whom we all adore here, uh, that the russians are really hungry for ammunition, and belarus still has considerable arsenals of those ammunition left over from the soviet union , and some of them are already substandard, but it does not stop the russians if someone there dies from the fact that the projectile exploded. this is absolutely unavoidable, they will happily use these projectiles in the future. and it seems to me that this is precisely the infrastructure of the airfields all the reserves that he can, this is the only thing that lukashenko is willing to give unlimitedly in return for the fact that he will not be touched or forced to engage in hostilities directly. to start serving hitler on may 7, 1945, that’s about as much as putin needs the belarusian

military as a military. and how do you need tanks, artillery, which is really belarus, if i’m not mistaken, russia has 1,300 tanks, as many as you like, there are no problems with human resources . how many will be needed, at least a million will be raked in, but weapons and equipment are what mr. serhii said at the beginning, this is a priceless resource now, because no one else gives it. which i would also like us to discuss, because nothing ever appears there, just like that they start actively saying that poland is preparing to invade the territory of ukraine and to occupy the western regions, yes. that is , there is volynska, lvivska, there other regions can be occupied by poles and look, the polish army is already preparing for this, they have already assembled units there, and this is happening against the background of the fact that there are rumors about a possible offensive from

the territory of belarus. it seems to me that this is also worth talking about. took up the concept and can it really be connected with the development of the scenario that if russia decides together with lukashenko with the belarusian army to invade the western regions of ukraine, then poland as our partner country can help us in this, i would not rely even on any the army of the nato countries and i will tell you why this is after the incident with the missile, that is, and we saw that the policy of the north atlantic bloc is aimed at not being drawn into our war, and for this, accordingly, we say that ok, your soldiers, your armies are not fighting, but let we have a tool so that we can fight and we ourselves will actually fight against the russian federation, that's why i wouldn't rely on any other army, but really, the

russians need some kind of justification. that is , we see that it's just a collapse of public opinion and it's growing more and more this is their dissatisfaction with that military operation, and obviously we need to make some kind of explanation, some kind of excuse, and we will mobilize to continue. these societies are not just not told, and to retain at least some kind of support from putin for this, and they are inventing it. of course, what are the poles there? you can see what is being done. the poles are already here, they are already preparing to attack and take over ukraine, and this is how it would be if we russians did not go to ukraine and then we save the russian people, that is, i think that it is from their story from the discharge in the 14th year was such a scarecrow that they said that if we remove the roadblocks and stop supporting the dpr and the lpr, then nato will not just be here. yes, there will be blacks and gays here, they will all go to the

donbas, they say, and capture our russian people, that is, well this is absolutely ridiculous to us but we saw what was going on in this head. yes, absolutely , that is, this russian world, the whole of this. well, this whole concept of the russian world is it, it is it, it just involves the support of such apparently idiotic, rational people. i also want to remind you that this week he received his 16-year sentence one of the belarusian so-called rail partisans, that is, one of those people who damaged these railway cabinets in order to stop the trains with russian military equipment that were going to ukraine in february and in the age of ukraine let's say this young man got 16 years before that well, he now moves on crutches because when he was detained and we absolutely deliberately just shot a belarusian law enforcement officer in the knee and now it is this man who damaged the closet and received a fine of $3,800. this is the price of the

railway locker itself and 16 years of imprisonment. i want to say something that we should remember about these belarusians as well as about those russians who, risking their own lives and their own freedom, still help us stop this the madness that is happening stop at crowd and these people. you know how israel used to be, not once, but it is still doing it. it is looking for these people, well, it is called the righteous of the world who helped save the jews during the holocaust. in the same way, we should remember these belarusians and these russians who are not you can forget about them this man as well as other rail partisans, they have already been convicted, they must definitely be released, miss our conversation, you can say that lukashenko behaves like a man in a frying pan in belarus, on the border with poland, they detain people who in on social networks, there are some comments that do not like the kgb and the aid to ukraine, it is only increasing and our partners. is it 70% of belarusians who do not support the invasion of the

belarusian army into ukraine? it says that poroshenko's husband is going to do it, he is getting such a riot inside his country, such a protest will stop his participation in this war and put an end to the opening of this second front thank you very much serhii kuzan, the head of the ukrainian center for security and cooperation visited us, we talked about belarus we hope that this night has calmed you down a little. do not believe in the russian informational psychological operation and be critical of any information. until we meet on the air, watch the night is not worth it. indomitable ukrainians throughout this difficult year one plus one and tsn with you tsn this day of victory everything will be your support in the new year. we wish you to

always have faith, inspiration, you can tell stories, all ukrainians are steel people with warm hearts , happy new year, let's remember one wish for everyone, the victory of ukraine on the holidays, one wish, victory in childhood, i always dreamed to meet characters from books, it seemed to me that they were all fictional and unattainable, everyone wrote about their strength, courage, courage, calling them warriors, those who are always on the side of truth and justice, on the side of freedom and independence, those who hold weapons in their hands

so that their children never take them they know how to fly and dream, they forget their own fears for our sake and for our future, warriors these are not characters from books , they are real warriors, these are the armed forces of ukraine for the holidays one wish victory in the event of a long absence of light and heat created points of invincibility are places of safety for all ukrainians, there is always light, heat, water, a first-aid kit, internet, mobile communication and everything for mothers with children, places of safety are located at

railway stations, in regional and district administrations , city and village councils, schools , kindergartens, head offices, points of emergency services go to the website invincibility .gov.ua and find the closest point of invincibility in the event of a lack of light and heat, the state will take care of it, let's defeat the darkness together, change life, destroy stereotypes, i didn't choose when medica is for good, i have to be ukrainian women protect the future by saving his life, this is the greatest motivation documentary series berehyny at war tomorrow at 14:40 in marathon the only news tomorrow

we will attack ukraine, we will surround it, we will destroy it and so on you argue that we are going to attack ukraine , we invite you to ask yourself a question, what is the meaning of russia, someone is being attacked by a bomb that exploded, such a spectacular pain in a german newspaper, despite the fact that the publication is considered a tabloid, and the map is not resembles a serious document, the author of the publication is convinced of its authenticity, the american washington post publishes similar intelligence data for a full-scale attack against ukraine , it is planned to use 175,000 troops, both newspapers claim, and it will take place so quickly 3 days 2 days