e of foreign aid or if it is lost, the national bank starts printing secured currency , so far we keep to such a fast balance . the first factor is the war, the duration of the war, the shelling, the destruction of the infrastructure, and so on , that is, now the forecasts are like fingers in the sky. you know, it is very difficult to predict anything. as for russia, the situation is unfortunately not as bad as expected, let me remind you that in the spring it was expected that the drop in gdp in russia would be 10-15%, as a matter of fact today we have, well , if you believe again the official statistics of the horde, the drop is about 2.5% , that is, they they managed to

rebuild something, they didn't fall so much, but there are also clear factors. why it happened was because oil was very expensive, gas was expensive and the budget reached the budget in the spring and summer. in december after the gas embargo itself fell oil and gas revenues have significantly decreased until february 5 of next year. and from february 5 next year, there will be paint on oil products, that is, there is a reasonable expectation that next year this fall in russia will intensify, not stop, but intensify briefly . probably somewhere i absolutely agree with mr. taras that it is very difficult to have any prospects now and to build some strategies, any vision , because when we analyze

the drafts of the state budget for the 23rd year, the ministry of economy itself says that that they live in conditions where it is very difficult to predict something, and therefore the macroeconomic forecast is based on some current and everyday things, there are hidden risks of war , the risks that russia may continue to carry out its terrorist acts are taken into account , and therefore it is very difficult to determine what may happen tomorrow, but well in fact, i would like to add the following that despite the fact that the countries are in such a terrible economic state, because we understand that the budget deficit is approximately somewhere there probably more than billions of dollars, if you consider the hryvnia equivalent, but along with this, we have very powerful, very strong support from the outside, and we can say that today it is possible

to do so. revenues that came from our external partners to cover this crazy deficit of the state budget and get those funds that helped to finance all social expenses to finance pensions to finance the salaries of our to state employees and what is interesting is that in the structure of these revenues, which are received like this, approximately 50%. well, about 46 percent. these are the funds that come in the form of non-returnable financial aid to the so-called brigands. that is, the world helps us, unlike russia, unlike this russian state, where we see that they do not have any help, and i think after all, russia will continue its recession next year, their economy will slide a little deeper and deeper into the hole , because we see what appropriate steps have been taken the world is the same as the panthers said, it is the

embargo on gas transportation that is not affecting oil, but some of the decisions that were announced yesterday by this crazy dwarf putin about the fact that he will not sell oil in the country that joined the this oil ceiling, we see how one by one the major shipping companies of the world refuse, even the same chinese ones, to service the movement or transportation of this oil , so i think that well, maybe i will say not as an economist, not a person who is critical there but i will say as a citizen that it seems to me that er russia is doomed for tomorrow, that is, they have no other option, either to go for some significant, significant, probably inconvenient decisions for them, or they will plant the first ones, or

they will er, they will deepen this abyss the abyss of the crisis and i also want to say what are the prospects for the 23rd year for ukraine, they are moderately optimistic because we know that the country's company gclon announced that ukraine has already accumulated approximately 33 billion e-e dollars and the help center also will be even bigger because other countries promise japan and promises to join, and we understand and according to the words of our minister of finance serhiy marchenko, in order to pass more or less balanced financially in the next plan exactly or in the next year 2023, ukraine needs approximately 38-40 billion dollars, that is, in fact, we see that this amount has already been accumulated, i believe that the memorandum with the imf will still grow into

such a full-fledged financing program and in 2023 such a moderate minor minor recovery will begin, but to the name for example, we still have a lot of military. thank you, mr. taras kozak, as an economist, deputy chairman of the standing committee of the council on budget and socio-economic development, and taras marshalok, doctor of economic sciences , analyst of the center for the analysis of public finances and public administration of the kyiv school of economics and professor zaporizhzhia university were with us, now let's talk a little about the military, military, did you tell andriy about the fact that when the russians are there, there might be a riot, for now, the russians are all what can they do to their rebellion? a couple from podolsk, pensioners, he is 70, she is 76, they came, they took some gasoline with them to podolsk in russia, they came to the military commissariat, they wet a piece, the wife took it off, and he tried to set it on

fire, of course, and then the police car came, the man continued there to smoke, the truth was taken from him, then his uh. here he is on the video, then they took away from him the tools of his rebellion, everything in russia during all this time of their special operation, in fact, a full-scale invasion of in ukraine, they set fire to 50 military commissariats, now what else is interesting about that little man messing around there, it is very interesting that he is being imported, messing around near the military commissariat, and here comes this car of the dps, the word is written on them, the protocol is interesting, what is going on in russia now, that is, it ends in the fall, and russian men are all kinds of they try to avoid him and hide even in hostels so that they are not found at the place of registration, as if they promised us that they want to call up 120,000 and they are promised, of course, to everyone that they will not fall

into the combat zone, but then they still it happens that they get caught, and in addition to the fact that they are listed in hostels, it even happens that they are directly in the military commissariat, but there is a story on medusa of a russian man who was dragged out of the hostel by the military commissariat, he found them somewhere in his bag and they did not take them from him with manicure scissors and he inflicted 20 stab wounds on his arm and then ended up in the hospital ward. of course, they took everything from him, including his mobile phone and passports, his wife barely found him , and he says that he doesn't know how this whole story ends. 120,000 anyway paul people's military expert, 120,000 conscripts are already with us, one way or another they are hiding, they are not hiding, i understand that they will be found, and even dead, they will be taken out of the grave , and these military commissars will push them, and they will then end up in ukraine, as much as this

number can to change the situation on the battlefield in ukraine. good day, these 120 thousand conscripts or 120 thousand so -called chmo bulls will not change the current situation in any way, in order for it to be changed, we need to take different approaches. but russia, for now unsustainable, in order for the situation to change, they need to change the situation qualitatively, for this they need means of communication, for this they need long-range high-precision weapons, which they already have or are running out of, they need heavy equipment such as tanks such as uh howitzer artillery installations, but with this equipment they have problems, they have to be lifted from warehouses and so on. that is why these 120,000 are so. some part of them will definitely end up in ukraine, somehow, well, they will fall into the same meat grinder in the same larger attacks

which are happening now. well, let's say under the same bahmut, but in principle they do not change the course of the war. and how? what, in principle, is fundamental in this course of war will be preserved in 2023, or are we expecting such a long positional war with the subsequent throwing of ukrainian positions somewhere in the donbas by these scumbags and possibly in other directions, will this war take some dramatic turns in the 23rd year? here is your opinion in order for it to change qualitatively. well, first of all, we have not yet started the winter operation, the winter operation will begin when will the weather in donbas change, it is currently raining there, it is very difficult for the equipment to move, that is why there are those positional battles in which very little

participation is taking place; at the moment there is well, let's say unofficial information about the crime that the crime will be released in the near future, but again, first of all, we are only listening to the message of the general staff, and i think that we will soon hear a message, and the crime is an important point uh, if or when we occupy it, then the next one will be lysychansk. and if you look at it, lysychansk is very critical for the defense of bakhmut , well, that is, if we cut off the forest of lysychansk, then bakhmut will be much easier when the winter operation begins, then the artillery will start working much more, then much more tanks from our side will be used more from our side , and then this positional war is a trench war that is currently happening in bakhmut, when the pykhatniks are fighting first of all, it will change, besides , we do not forget about the direction of zaporozhye about

melitopol melitopol is such an absolutely obvious direction for our offensive in order to cut off the kherson grouping and what is left of the kherson region and for a gradual offensive on the crimea, so it cannot be said that we have stopped such trench warfare will continue there in the 23rd year, mr. pavlo, well, besides the fact that the russians are replenishing the ranks of their army with new recruits. they are also looking for ways to clothe and arm them, and one way or another. they receive some help from china, from iran, this help in clothes and of weapons, it is essential. and actually, will it be possible to somehow hit iran on the hands so that it no longer helps in arming russia? well, let's start with china. i don't believe that china is somehow helping

russia without profiting from this. i think that this is a sale or exchange for some energy resources for gas for oil and so on, what are you asking, do you and russia make money from this, in principle? well, i will not say on the live air of some place, that is, they simply make their business on this. as they say here in sumy, iran i think dollars are also critically important for iran that there is a plane that flies after these missiles and it flies, uh, well, there, either with gold bullion, or there with cash dollars or euros, or with some other kind of cotton wool, the help that has currently been recorded from china is n- first of all, the form is wrong, it is important but it is not so critical for us, but the help that is coming early is shahid drones - it is possible well, so far not a single missile attack using football rockets has been recorded.

medium-range missiles. unfortunately, we currently do not have. well, there is almost no anti- missile defense. we have anti-aircraft defense, which is capable of shooting down drones, cruise missiles and aircraft, but there is no missile that is capable of shooting down ballistic missiles . patriot petriv, this is exactly the pereo system, but one battery will be transferred, where it will be installed, whether it will protect kyiv, or it will protect nuclear power plants, or it will be installed on some part of the front and it will protect the military there objects, well, at the moment it is unknown, but for sure this one battery will not be able to protect the whole country, it cannot, as they like to say in our country, to close the sky, it is technically impossible, there are such a number of anti-aircraft defense systems . well, maybe there are 200 units in japan or in germany or in the usa well, that is, in the countries of the first world, and this is one battery, it is not a solved issue, therefore, added help from iran, it is critically important for russia and

dangerous for us. said the number of approximately 5-8 batteries, we need them to close critical nodes, important nodes of the infrastructure well, but they will appear in our country, and one will appear in our country only in six months , according to different estimates, it will appear in the spring, what about you do you think that the russians can attack kiev again through the same belarus? how much is this possible method and is it really a serious threat? the situation at the moment is categorically different from february. first of all , the number of our armies has approximately doubled. secondly in we were re-armed at the beginning of the war, there was a light infantry that

had only fighting spirit and kalashnikov assault rifles. well, the same sumy continues with i come from the city of sumy, as volunteers i cooperated with i cooperated with the sumy tire, they had fighting spirit, a machine gun a kalashnikov and a barrel in your pocket, well, against russian tanks, the situation has now categorically changed to the theory of a large number of mortars . shelled on march in april, well, that is, they went through such painful training right in the war, directly on the entire border with belarus, we were very lucky that there were a huge number of rivers, those water barriers and there are approximately 3-4 roads through which a large amount of equipment can go and all these roads pass through rivers and bridges, so i am more than sure. well, they are obviously already

mined, the entire border is mined , the border service notified belarus that for some reason they resent us, that we are there so we reconciled the ditches and bypassed everything possible, well, that is, we are preparing to meet the enemy there, besides, there are huge ours, i will not say what resources , so i am 100% 100% sure that if there is an onslaught of on that side, we will quickly stop it there, in addition, there is a message from budanov, there is a message from our intelligence, the american intelligence, that at the moment there was no formation of shock corps, well, let's say that shock units that were able to enter the territory of ukraine, we are talking about 100 plus thousands of soldiers with heavy equipment with artillery and so on. and all this does not exist in belarus at the moment. if you can be brief, what , uh, do you agree with the thesis of president zelensky that in 2023 will be a turning point in this

war? at the turning point, i went into shock, yes, to some extent, i agree. why yes? because russia is running out of resources, first of all economic , secondarily military, currently there is already an obvious shortage of artillery ammunition for the russians and , er, all our allies, they continue to give us to help, that is, we will not have problems with artillery weapons, that is why i think that somewhere well, i think that by the summer there will really be a serious break and i think that by the end of the 23rd year it is absolutely realistic to leave at the border 91, well, thank you very much, pavel, born in the military the expert joined us with an optimistic forecast for the next year as regards the armed forces of ukraine and the finalization of this war and the resolution of the russian question, so we will formulate their answer about the ukrainian question, which

they constantly tell us, comparing us probably with the victims of the genocide of the jewish people of ukraine, well, but before we add our next guest to our conversation, i want to tell you about the swedish couple thomas and hanna mazetti, who are collecting, want to collect something there, 15 from 15 to 25 million dollars, you know on that andriy, that is not to help ukraine, but to ban the song last christmas , because you see, hanna worked in a coffee shop, and there, during the christmas period, they play that song non-stop. well, not all the time, only one song, but in the list of all other songs she this song on there was a day, i heard more than christmas give me very next day, or she

got bored of this song and they decided to raise money to buy the rights and send this song forever . with michael boogie , the dead man is open, i think this song is already banned there, because everything that has any relation to this kyiv theme is banned there, they will calmly kneel down and kirkorov spend their days on a russian pension in ukraine, listened here sometimes the air alarms, which also happen in a circle, sound more often and they are not as pleasant to listen to as the song last christmas only during the christmas period, then they would definitely like this money that they want to collect from 15 to 25 million dollars, my god, how much do i think serzh and think how much we have now bought all kinds of uavs, sent them where needed, all kinds of other thermal imagers, and so on. and so on, we bought the necessary

things, which from the large-scale construction of the dnipropetrovsk region this year were spent on transport, the restoration of roads could be bought, for example metrics in these uavs are the main ones used for development by the ukrainian military porokhova butusov 15,000 of such uavs that provide us with an intellectual advantage and allow us to accurately cross the enemy on the approaches to bakhmut, in particular and but in fact in this story there are certain advances, you know that the other day there were searches there immediately in 13 offices that are connected with mr. rizchenek, this is the head of the military -civilian administration, all that. as a result, seven and all the progressive humanity pushed through the appointment of the head of the nabu finally

worked the appointment of a special specialized anti-corruption prosecutor's office and we finally have an anti-corruption court, all of this is there and it is possible to sort things out a little bit. ukraine, we will ask if the organization has any concept of the reconstruction of ukraine mr. andriy, good morning, what is the concept of the reconstruction of ukraine, please tell us, except for us for now the city is liberating our land. yes, we can see the results very well. unfortunately, the russian actions in our country have affected the country very badly . literally yesterday, the ministry of internal affairs even mentioned the number of destroyed buildings. it seems to be a figure in the region of 40,000, and we understand that the reconstruction

of ukraine it takes a very complicated and very long process, and that's why we need to work on understanding how it should happen, because it's not as simple as it might seem that the building was. let's restore it as it is. yes. if to talk purely about the building, in addition to the building, there are still a lot of infrastructural things and we see how they destroy at least our energy system. and this question is more difficult because it is necessary to understand the banal. yes, because to start reconstruction the day after we win the war eh well, in fact, it is impossible because everywhere to start construction eh banal there are not enough resources for that therefore we are already thinking about how it should look like reconstruction and our concept is the time that the concept is for discussion, we simply understand that reconstruction is such a complex process that it can very easily go wrong,

let's say, and we see such risks as the fact that resources will somehow be incorrectly distributed, the quality of these projects will be low for the reconstruction, there will not be enough support and partners or attention to this government. well, first of all, this, of course, gives a lot of corruption. it is quite possible that it exists, so we proposed our vision of how the reconstruction process should look . divided into five levels. the first is the strategic level. in fact, it should begin with an assessment of damages and needs. we already have a register of destroyed and damaged property, which i hope will soon be made public . this is planning and preparation. that is, it is actually necessary to understand which projects are in which places. we need a third one in the country - it is necessary to determine priorities because, as i said, in

fact, to start rebuilding everything and everywhere well, this is an unreal story, and the fourth - these are of course public procurement tenders, we clearly have a position here that this should happen through ukrainian systems, such as the transparent public procurement system, which is generally recognized in the world, and any reconstruction should take place on a competitive basis, that is, business should compete among themselves in order to actually rebuild the country well, and fifth - this is probably the most important stage in my opinion - it is the evaluation and analysis of the reconstruction project in order to see and understand the e-e in those projects which will be implemented in the first place that where possible something is working not so in order to fix it in order to unify the whole process er we are already within the framework of the police of public organizations of ukraine working together with the ministry of infrastructure and so on now this is now one thing the ministry, which was replaced

by the ministry of regions, is working on the creation of a unified reconstruction management system in order to ensure the appropriate level of transparency and accountability, as well as to avoid certain duplication of projects and to simplify management e-e projects for the government, or perhaps some institution that will deal with it, but also give information about general information about how reconstruction is going on for our foreign partners of the country, who i hope will join the reconstruction so that they have fewer questions, all information should be in the format of open data and is open and available 24/7 er, this is our experience of communication , for example, with the administration, not the administration, let 's say with the leadership of bucha, the city of bucha , that is, which is now known to the whole world to us the deputy mayor, for example, mykhailyna skoryk said that this has not yet provided any capitalization for the city, that is, on the one hand, the city knows the whole world and a lot

of organizations and government disabled people are ready to give money to the city and even now to rebuild this city, where it seems somewhere close 60% of houses were affected by the results of shelling posts, well, of the fighting that took place on the spot in the city, but on the other hand, the process is now so centralized . what, for example, in order to get computers for the school there? she told an example. it was necessary to reach a state agreement with the ministry of foreign affairs of poland and the ministry of sultanate affairs of ukraine, and it dragged on for months. i don't know what the children are. well, a couple of weeks ago, they didn't have those computers, although it was already the end of the first half of the school year . on the one hand, it allows you to better control the flows, and on the other hand, it allows her to steal as much as possible at once, that's how it is here, what is it, how do we need

to move? look, then when it is centralized, it is world experience that when reconstruction is uh well, there is a certain center where all the information is just uh, the probability of effectiveness is much higher than when it is centralized . which you are not introducing, this is exactly the reconstruction that we need for yesterday yes, we need these computers for yesterday, we need classrooms for yesterday because children cannot sit in their homes when they need to study, they need a full-fledged educational process, this is our urgent need the needs and concept i was talking about is more about a long-term plan. yes, because we understand that reconstruction is 10, 20, 30 years, well, considering the scale of the destruction, but even this example will probably not undermine centralization. and about the process error yes, that is, well, it shouldn't be. some kind of interstate agreement is needed in order for the

school to get computers, and in fact, these are the examples they need. it's very cool what they say about them. this will definitely help in the future to eliminate such cases when we come to great reconstruction, if you can say so. yes , ukraine is the goal of which is not just to visit what was rebuilt better than it was. regarding corruption at this level, well, look at me, the answer is always like this . in the summer, instead of a manager, i will hire a manager if we don’t have a full-fledged one, but the commission is practical . as far as i know, this process should be completed in january and february. in fact, ukraine has rebuilt a very good anti-corruption infrastructure in eight years, and this it will be their task if we at this stage preemptively eliminate the risks for corruption, including these processes about intergovernmental agreements

that someone has to sign some piece of paper. in principle, the news will be done quite adequately now from the dnipropetrovsk administration of the dnipro administration, which you also mentioned, so i think that and, of course, the solution that we offer together with the ministry of infrastructure in order for everyone to see everything in order to make it impossible to reduce the minimums because they will still be there anyway , corruption will be the only issue is its scale. it will be possible given that it's just transparency and public control andrii borovyk, executive director of transperection international ukraine, was with us, and now anna ivanyk will be with us news release for your attention, we are watching