it will significantly ease our life the life of civil society will provide an opportunity to restore the infrastructure to a level that provides at least our minimum needs in the second place i would determine the receipt of e-e combat vehicles of infantry and armored personnel carriers so that the newly formed military units the previously formed water infantry brigades receive in the appropriate number means of mobility, if we want to fight quickly and energetically, i can do it on foot, i need combat vehicles that , first of all, are capable of transporting personnel on the second, to support his operatives during the day, that's probably the most priorities are in the third place, probably, there should be a conversation about obtaining aircraft, because any offensive

actions require air superiority, at least in the key areas of the development of operations, here you probably know my 3 priorities this is your first priority, to get something so long that would reach those planes and ships that are now bombarding ukraine, so i think that all 100% of the residents of ukraine will join you in this wish you know, if it was possible to put it under the christmas tree, it would probably be the greatest happiness for all of us. if my wishes were joined by raytions, loctite marking, which was developed with such a weapon, i would probably be even more happy . well, let's wish this to everyone. launched into space, well , it is carried out as a rule, and then let's talk about

some of these plans, especially since there are certain expectations, for example, the commanding officer in the northern direction, the syrian direction also told the economist in an interview that one should not underestimate the mobilization in russia, on the other hand, at these last meetings there, putin told him that the russian army would be increased to one and a half million military personnel, of which they want more than 600,000 that these were contract workers and raised, they also intend to raise the conscription age from 21 to 30 , that is, even those who now thought that they would not fall under the crisis may well fall under it and from this point of view, how do you how do you think this mobilization in russia really affects their plans to gather a larger army, on what is happening on the battlefield, and

most importantly, how much can the military machine of the russian federation really equip these people and deliver them to the field, if you look at the impact of the mobilization on society as a whole, these are vessels that connect the armed forces and society, and between them there is a tube of mobilization, that is, if you want to increase the number of the armed forces, you have to transfer a part of society there , including people who worked the military-industrial complex used to be a critical infrastructure enterprise in the same communal economy, that is , society is getting worse there, but due to this, the army is becoming more. in the materials of colleagues, the ministry of defense of the russian federation states that they intend to form

about 15-18 new compounds and if , conditionally speaking, for the convenience of calculations , 20 new divisions of 15,000 people will be formed. this is the situation when 300,000 conscripts for mobilization fit perfectly into what is the logical context of the development of events the russian training and material base of the armed forces of the russian federation allows training 120-130 thousand of 100 fresh new battalions of tactical groups, but the question of all these people is that all these 300,000 need to be dressed in something. it is desirable to give them modern equipment. well, at least relatively modern means of ballistic protection unloading vests, e.e. unloading, the same flags, in general, a set of combat

equipment, a warrior in russia, everyone has heard and seen units . there is also no ammunition for it, then the questions begin. and where to get military equipment in the warehouses, the bases of tax versions, the stocks are quite large, but all this must be restored and preferably modernized, the modernization of the t-62 wedding machines has been announced in order to provide them for the troops that will be formed in russia today itself does not produce a fire control station, night sights, or significant vision devices, all this was purchased in france, now sanctions do not buy anything for the t-62 tank, night sights, there is no question what should be there modernized evicted on the battlefield, i.e. blind at night, the car, well, it will probably

happen by other means, such as airplanes, helicopters, means of communication, primarily secure communication without components that are under sanctions, well, this is more of a conversation than an opportunity to create something, the last, the last fun story about the fact that manufacturers from abroad refused to transfer to the russian federation the orders they had previously received for the baikal and elbrus processors, which were considered to be a domestic development, but somehow the domestic development was made abroad in the russian federation, there are quite a lot of such nuances, one should not discount the gray schemes parallel to the imports of strange partners such as, for example, iran, which can provide

something and help in some way by pumping western radio microelectronics through shadow schemes into the russian federation, but all this can only partially provide some kind of impulse for the russian pc to create something and somehow advance, so it can be concluded that the enemy's intentions to conduct another offensive strategic operation are human resources, but they are limited the ability to provide the new group with combat equipment, how they will solve this problem, it is difficult to say yet. well, the question is when they can try to carry out this offensive operation, because you know, i remember well that, for example, about what they they want to strike er, well,

strike ukrainian infrastructure. it was this power plant and so on that they started talking about. well, somewhere in june and july, there was such a figure that they now have to increase the concentration of calibers that can be released in one launch to 100 pieces well, caliber, caliber, but precisely to these, let's say, the expected and sought-after 100 pieces, they really increased the possibility of simultaneously releasing other missiles of that caliber. well, something like that, everything gathered that could, that is, this plan worked, uh, you see, in october, in such and such there was a varnish time from july, the beginning of july and until october, and here they are, as if, not so long ago, they talked about the fact that they are going to prepare this offensive operation, and then when

can we expect the offensive operation, which began on february 24 of this year, to begin to prepare already at the beginning of the summer of the 21st year, when the troops were withdrawn to field camps , in particular, and on the territory of belarus, and a number of different levels of training were conducted, the troops were preparing for future actions, at the same time , the investigation conducted by the journalists of the mini york times was published, it seems , on december 14 we see russian military documents that were collected here on the fields of the battle order of the commander of the 26th tank regiment hm signed on february 23 readiness for

action on february 23, 20 1 o'clock in the evening that is, until of the invasion itself, the preparation continued, the planning continued, judging by the fact that the order was written by hand and not even typed on a computer, it can be said that at the very last moment, something was revised, something was corrected, that is, really, six months for the preparation of such measures is enough time is limited, taking into account the fact that the mobilization took place and the formation of military units. only yesterday it was declared, accordingly, from yesterday, 180 days should be added, and this can be considered more or less real. the enemy also realizes that if he does not take the next step first,

the armed forces of ukraine will take such a step, and they will make this one the most convenient for the russian federation in the city, so they should also speed up and conduct some operation with limited goals, not looking after or waiting for the deadline when flow these six months ago, i think that the aggravation may occur at the end of january at the beginning of february next year and, accordingly, a larger-scale offensive operation may be prepared for the beginning of june next year well, if we have already talked about limited limited this well, as if attempts of such somehow limited offensives, then what could it be from belarus or after all it will be donbas? in the

direction of mariupol, the enemy began the construction of defensive lines along the dnieper , not in the territories of the kherson zaporozhye regions , a defensive line is being built, which is a system of defense areas connected by tactical fire links, that is, it is not about preparation for the next actions of the enemy that are taking place in donbas, well, this is just a paraphrase of the front joint of the armed forces of the russian federation in senseless attacks on the fortified positions of the armed forces of ukraine , it is unlikely that something serious and large-scale can be carried out there, especially to do it covertly so that we do not see it and do not expect it luhansk oblast has such an opportunity. the enemy has it, but he cannot advise on any adequate

measures to stop the progress of the united defense forces of ukraine in the direction of criminalization. it looks like an offensive as far as belarus is concerned, in belarus it is in the second and the rifle division of the armed forces of the russian federation on five training grounds of a group of about 12,000 people in order to carry out serious offensive actions, this is clearly not enough . belarus has once again left the topic of taking part in aggression against ukraine, although he refuses to contribute to the territory , airfields, airspace, provide medical support, repair facilities, but this is not what the russian dictator expects. it seems to me that those troops who

now in the russian federation they are accumulating in bryansk kursk of belohorod oblast, they may constitute such a group that will try to make life difficult for us somewhere in slobozhanshchyna. that is, it could be kharkiv oblast or even sumyshchyna and sumyshchyna. i don’t think so, but the administrative border of kharkiv luhansk oblasts these are the terrains. especially since the formation of two divisions in shebekinoi valuyki was started on the russian side before 2014. there is infrastructure there, there are opportunities. of similar himers and creative systems , the enemy has pulled the troops away from the state border beyond the range of our

fire, well, look, uh, rif insists that they are focused on such an important goal for them, there is an exit to the borders of the luhansk donetsk regions well, but the positive uh, if you look at it paying attention to everything, it still seems that the issue of controlling the cock of ukraine is more important in general for the russians, well, first of all, it covered this land corridor , which provides them, in principle, with quite a lot of resources and gives the opportunity to support all their groups, and here it is interesting what the prerequisites could be for some kind of offensive actions, and on both sides from our russian side, that is, what can happen in this area in the south, what can we expect there in itself a land corridor from the territory of the russian

federation in krym along the coast of the sea of ​​azov, it appears as the metal of the operation, then disappears , it is not often said, but the actions of the enemy indicate that it is preparing to defend this territory, according to the holding of the referendum we are talking about joining the kherson zaporozhye regions to the russian federation, well, we saw that circus, everyone laughed at it, they give the russians some kind of basis, they create some kind of illusion, the need to defend the original russian territory, which is part of the russian state. well, of course, in the kremlin's imagination, only everyone else knows whether or not the dash and measures that are taking place now in the melitopol region, in the ecology region, in the vasylivka region, the construction of fortifications in the kherson region

speaks for the very fact that preparations are being made against them namely to defend and hold this territory, and not to advance in the northern or western direction, but let's try to talk in such very, i would say, such conditional categories regarding plans and possibilities, that is, if we are talking and we are going to seriously liberate the entire territory of our country, well, i guess it is necessary to understand what the prerequisites may be, for example, for the liberation of luhansk and donetsk, this is the key, the territories that have been captured for a long time, so that what should happen here in order for this goal to become real, we have shown how it can be done in two ways, the counter carried out an offensive

operation in the northern direction, freer than kyiv and chernihiv, sumy oblast, using the method of cutting with salt, that is, the deep wedges of the enemy along the main highways were gradually cut off, and these groups were crushed until they completely lost their fighting capacity. in the end, the enemy was forced to announce at will and to get out of our territory, the enemy perfectly understood that to ensure the combat capability of the units that went deep into the territory of the enemy for 300-400 km and not to cover in any way communication is an absolutely unrealistic task, therefore , the second scheme for the liberation of the territory was born already with good will, which we showed the enemy, it is the rapid raiding actions of heavy

brigades, when the territorial defense brigade struck in one place, it seems the village of shevchenko, the enemy decided that this was the direction of the main attack, he began to reorient himself to holding this very populated point and immediately received eh in the breakthrough eh three brigades of 92-93 mechanized 25th airborne which rapidly advanced all the way to kupyansk , destroying the operational stability of the defense the enemy and he was forced to flee first from the raisin, then from the estuary and leave the territory of kharkiv oblast completely, that is, there are several options, several tactics, several operational techniques, but it should be taken into account that the donbas is an extremely difficult territory for conducting offensive operations, because it is such a huge urban agglomeration and masterchef a mass of

man-made objects the terrain itself in the donetsk ridge is not very conducive to rapid actions there, the general staff will have to strain to come up with something original. i think that such plans corresponding ideas are being developed, all the more so as general shpetala, a member of debaltsev's defense , knows the region very well and knows the secret corpses by which we will reach the ukrainian border in 1991, well, the liberation of crimea is no less so . i think the situation is complex and it is interesting here, first of all apparently, it should be disabled because crimea is essentially a military base, let's be honest, crimea is a russian military base. and

what should be done to make it cease to exist? what should be done to disable it? make it so that they did not have the opportunity to resist here, i think that i need to bother, this is to put it directly out of order, it is not necessary to put it out, remember general manstein, who dispersed everyone in crimea with five divisions and captured everything and did not think much about what should be destroyed if not necessary we have already mentioned that first of all it is necessary to disable or severely limit the possible use of winged rockets, this can be done and we have already tried to do it in sevastopol. i think that these tactics have been worked out and they will not go anywhere and will be applied at the right moment, the second nuance is to disable the enemy’s aviation not by airfields, but by aviation. because the airfield

can be restored quite quickly in modern conditions, if only there is not always a nuclear strike on it, accordingly, the damaged aircraft are harmless and lose their meaning as of military potential, the third thing that needs to be done is to disable the air defense system, whether it will be an attack on radar stations. i think that it is not for nothing that the partners provided harm missiles and they are very were surprisingly and quickly integrated for use from our mig-29 aircraft, and that technologically, before the start of use , it seemed to many to be completely impossible, including to me in particular, but we saw that it works and it can be so, i think that in the southern direction we demonstrated to the enemy the presence of such capabilities. so, most

likely, when needed, our planes with such missiles will show themselves to the best of their ability if we ensure dominance in the air , the fight against enemy groups with its ground units is a big problem it will not be established due to the limitation of the enemy’s ability to feed this group with the actual means of armed struggle , starting with the delivery of supplies and ending with the delivery of food and fuel, delivery by sea is difficult and expensive, delivery by air is even more expensive and in the absence of dominance in the air is impossible. have shown that we can also achieve that, the crimean operation only seems difficult from a military point

of view, much more difficult will be the stabilization operation, which will to be carried out after the hostilities end , the national guard and the ukrainian law enforcement agency will work there for years, if not decades, because it will be really difficult . by the way, what do you think about that? the russians, er, start using bomber aircraft in ukraine, they really want it, they want to use it, you know, free-falling, such powerful bombs, well, this is in fact already a war. such, well, the destruction of ukraine as such, as much as they can before that, well, this to do uh, they want to use bomber aviation and conventional gravity munitions, those who themselves will never in their life under any circumstances find themselves in the cockpits of

bombers, bomber pilots who saw what has already been lost under 300 aircraft, including uh, the joining of about 400 pilots is wonderful realize that flying into a suppressed air defense system what diet of the day is saturated with modern western technology, it must be kamikaze and given that the losses have increased that the pilot once again remained in the jet load will increase, because where two crews were flying, now we have to fly alone, it is physically very difficult. well, i think that they will quickly look for ways to take sick leave, drop the bomb, you load somewhere closer to the border and pretend that the task has been completed once again listen to general konoshenkov about the fact that 100% was

destroyed there in half a day and it will suit everyone, i do not think that the enemy will dare to use bomber aircraft today, because he has not done this for a very, very long time, it has been used stormtroopers use attack helicopters and strategic carriers of air-based cruise missiles that carry out launches from the caspian sea region, that is, without entering the air defense zone of ukraine, so i think that this may be the development of events. such a risk and results, if we say in general what general goals the ukrainian armed forces, the ukrainian defense complex should set for itself in 2023, the tasks before

the armed forces stand for the simple restoration of the territorial integrity of the state, the liberation of the captured territories. in what way and in what terms will this happen? well, i know better . to find out that there is a war going on in the country. i hear every day that we are demanding from our partners to provide something to the armed forces of ukraine to continue the resistance, but here is something that has not been heard for a long time about that of the defense-industrial complex of ukraine produced something and handed it over to him. apparently, it is necessary to wake up and start working, and as far as it is possible in these conditions, it is not at all because we

understand there, well, enterprises are collapsing and, in principle, it is quite problematic here, or are there such opportunities? well, i am now i'm not asking you to specify in more detail, but yes, from what you know, it's very difficult . logistics has been destroyed. energy has been destroyed. supply chains have been destroyed . the global crisis of microchips, that is, there are a lot of difficulties, but such matters how can the modernization of infantry combat vehicles of tanks be allowed to advance in the direction of the projects of the same thunder neptune alder gorlitsa sokol 300 to perform certain volumes of work on the manufacture of an anti-tank missile complex stugna, who has shown himself very well, we

can do it, and it is probably worth doing. of course , not everything will work out, all this will happen under the pressure of enemy air attacks, but doing nothing during the war is simple and in principle it's safe, but on the other hand, the state has a defense-industrial complex, not at all, in order for it to rest during hostilities, so something really needs to be done, well, actually, you've already said enough, so many interesting forecasts that i think we can compare and check later what will be accurate , how accurate thank you, it was victor kyvalyuk, an expert of the center for defense strategies and a reserve colonel. well, we will see each other again.

congratulations, please give me just a few minutes of your attention and i really hope that you will be able to help in the cold. please look at photo of this girl, her name is tanya troyanova. she is 11 years old and she disappeared. we have been looking for tanya for more than six months, but we do not lose hope of finding the girl and believe that thanks to you we will be able to do it. so, tanya disappeared in the spring, on may 8, unfortunately, we have little information about the girl and actually about the circumstances of her disappearance, however, it is known that she lived in the city of berdyansk, zaporizhia region, the city is currently occupied, and yet despite the fact that ukrainian atb is not broadcast there now, i hope that at least