from that side, the situation may change within a few hours. well, about this and not only us, you will ask nataliya humenyuk, the head of the joint coordination press center of the security and defense forces of southern ukraine, the captain of the first rank with us in connection with ms. nataliya, we welcome you glory to ukraine glory to the heroes i congratulate you well, we announced the information about, so to speak, ships without calibers in the black sea but i think that everyone is extremely interested in the situation with the big potemkinsky island, what is happening with that island now, because the signals were coming, they even saw the video well, and accordingly, mrs. natalya, you as a person are extremely informed, tell what you can tell. and really what can be told and it is expedient is that it is necessary to understand that the flag of ukraine is advancing through ukraine , the military is indeed continuing its work and the enemy has been knocked out of the island, but one must be

aware of the geographical feature of the location of this island, that is why we do not report very loudly about such events, we report so that the local population of little understanding has hope and does not lose faith in the fact that progress is being made, work is being done, but it is necessary to realize that the enemy will fight for each island in the same way. the geographical feature of the left bank is precisely that there are many such islands, and the weather at this stage in the south is basically very warm, very spring-like, so we cannot count on frost yet, but the work is not we stop it, it is a little slowed down due to water conditions , but in the rest it continues, mrs. captain, on the first morning, what was the russian

group on this island and how fierce were the battles? we cannot talk about a specific group, we can say that they use every piece of land in order to get closer to the de-occupied territory and fire at the moment when they knock out this piece of land, it is more difficult for them to inflict damage on those settlements that are on the opposite bank , and this is precisely the system of our work, which consists in protecting the local population from the constant terrorism of the enemy , that is, to sneak up, pull up in power to fire, they do not consider any prospects even for themselves in the plan well, landing for example, to the right bank of the liberated kherson region. we correctly understand why none of them have either power

or sense in principle, because it would be absolute nonsense, such a hypothetical landing would immediately leave a mark on mrs. natalya. three pa- suffered the last day, uh, not just as we understand, and tell the liberated kherson a little more about it. yes, unfortunately, the shelling continues and it will continue because it is the practice of terrorists to continue such a depressing text of their fire control over the local population under the slogan uh-uh, didn't you feel uh-uh, it would be better for you to submerge the world, but our population has definitely realized that it is better without the benefits of civilization, but still without hands, that's why that they are trying to beat now almost unsystematically in residential quarters

on objects of social infrastructure, this is the basis and further evidence in the international protocol for the hague tribunal that it is clearly the population that suffers from those in those regions and these areas of the city are trying to evacuate as much as possible, and the defense force continues its work, and this is confirmed by the advance across the island in order to push the enemy as far as possible from where they will not be able to inflict such damage, but we understand objectively that he still has air strikes and rocket strikes and the use of pellets, therefore, ignore the air alarm signals. it is not possible under any circumstances , madam captain of the first rank, on the other hand, our gunners also inflict quite painful blows on the enemy, so the story is already an epic with makiivka so because we understand how powerful losses the enemy suffered and how huge

, i don’t know, a huge scandal is unfolding in the domestic russian market right now, this is one story, there is also a story about chulakivka, which is less known, but according to our information, our artillerymen there covered a base or a command post, which also contained a very many interveners, what about that shelling and what is this chulakivka? yes, we continue the combat work, we continue the control over the locations, fire control over the locations of the occupiers, and this not just hitting some objects, their location, this is really verified information , because they continue to hide among the local population, they continue to take with them the local population, who are campaigning for the same

deportation ; on the left bank from the water cut , 10-12-15 kilometers away, they are advancing so as not to be hit, they are dragging the local population with them because they understand that the defense forces will not attack the local people, but what they are covering. these are the bases at the base of the enemy concentration, this is a powerful cooperation with the forces of resistance, the forces of the resistance movement on the left bank and the armed forces of ukraine ms. natalya well, then one more episode, but now, in fact, russian propaganda is screeching about what is in the chaplinka somewhere at night there was a hit in an apartment building . let's try to explain with you what happened in chaplinka, at least for those people who hear us, er, who are ready to receive reliable

information. why is this story not about er, shooting at residential buildings, please , first of all, you should understand the logic information content that we carried out and that the occupiers and propagandist television, radio media of the russian federation, we spoke repeatedly and repeatedly demonstrated. but i emphasize once again. we carefully check the information before carrying out a fire attack, that is why it is possible that it is not understood - there is always an understanding. why is it taking so long? we verify detailed information, and only then

is fire hit repeatedly , in particular, in the kherson region, the occupiers tried to take out objects such as a restaurant complex, a recreation center where they stationed their units behind a residential building in which local residents suffered. but if we hit, we we know exactly where. as i understand it, the russians were based there. one of the leading units was based there, which really ensured the communication of the group that is on the left bank of ms. natalya, finally, very briefly melitopol, what does this fortress look like now, well, the occupiers consider it a fortress for now well, there are such types of beliefs in which we do not debunk them, let them think so, but we know what to do, as the classics say, we know what we need to do

with this place to do, we know how many there are who help us and we also know that their practice of strengthening such iconic places later turned into such a not very decent sign for themselves thank you , madam captain of the first rank, for your work and for the operational, extremely important information of our population live on the espresso tv channel nataliya gumenyuk, head of the joint coordination press center of the security forces and defense of the south, captain of the first rank, let's go further 14:38 minutes, and we are in touch with vadym denysenko, adviser to the minister of internal affairs of ukraine executive director of the ukrainian institute of the future, vadim, congratulations, glory to ukraine, i congratulate you, well, accordingly, we would like to ask you about a new strategy for the use of russian iranian shaheds drones - president

zelensky warns that the russians can use them again with an extremely high probability and, accordingly, yes, we understand that iran has supplied russia with a new batch of missiles well, in principle, we must understand that if everything that our intelligence says is true only our intelligence about the fact that the number of years of the russians is decreasing, that they are really forced to use a rocket produced in 2022, then the new strategy also becomes clear. missiles and instead massively try to launch shahids, which are now in an almost unlimited state because, from what we understand, iran continues to supply shahids to the russian federation, so actually , despite luck, there is very little efficiency as jahids and great work efficiency of our legal system and our aviation in principle, despite this, the russians

are still trying to work and will continue to try to carry out attacks by martyrs on the population , why are there two reasons, i won’t say anything new here. on the one hand, they are trying to destroy our andriy energy infrastructure, on the other hand, i definitely want it or not, it affects the psychological state of ukrainians because you know when every night there are two or three nights in a row you have an air alarm actually all night long , whether you like it or not we want to psychologically it will still pressure, but once again i can say that so far the military effectiveness and fortunately the psychological effectiveness of these attacks is sufficient, well, on the other hand, the enemy also suffers from psychological instability and we understand that extremely skillful work our gunners adds to the panic of the enemy, we understand what happened in makiivka and the waves of the

psychological plan have also gone through russia, although we will also not overestimate, so to speak , the state of instability in russia, how do you think it affects the current situation in general? waves of great mobilization well, in principle , any information is the first. she always works by accumulating. and here is the story with the make -up girl. she, uh, she was not really the first. that is , we uh, if you look at the tapes on in recent months, this is actually once a week, we have a similar situation when there are hundreds of russians who are based in one or another premises, but makiivka really became such an information breakthrough. when the russian authorities decided to silence this story the issue was raised first by russian military correspondents and a wave of indignation began throughout russia. again

, i will repeat, such things work only in accumulation. if we talk about preparation for the next waves of mobilization , unfortunately, similar things, yes they are. affect on psychological state, yes, they affect the level of anxiety in the russian federation, where they affect other things, but unfortunately , they will not affect mobilization, that is, the russians at this moment have de facto resigned to the fact that mobilization will probably happen, they are very afraid of it they do not want it, but at the same time, as of now, they are not yet ready for riots. why? the answer here, too, probably lies largely on the surface, because so far the fear of losing the mythical kingship is still more than the other, because so far what despite the work of sanctions, the refrigerator is still sufficiently full of russians, if everything goes as it is going at the

moment, then closer to the summer, june, july, the month of the russians ahead, the russians will begin to feel a sharp deterioration in their lives. and then the refrigerator will start working against the authorities. but again i will repeat if everything goes as it is now, vadim, you are probably familiar with the address of the minister of defense of ukraine oleksiy reznikov, in fact, to russian citizens, who, if he warns, acts in anticipation of what he can such a global mobilization will begin already in russia, what can happen, for example, with closed borders, meanwhile, if the second wave of mobilization begins in russia, the combat qualities of the recruits will turn out to be even worse than in the first wave, this was the opinion expressed by the spokesman of the ministry of defense of estonia and avila asik. in your opinion, it is clear that such a hybrid mobilization was not completed in spite of everything. but is it possible to deploy the preparations for the stand up country for a huge battle to the death when

the entire population is mobilized? i thought that they simply cannot do this physically, but they simply will not be able to do it , or can they repeat the second wave within the limits of which the first one was around 300,000, and theoretically it is possible and the probability of this is quite high, that is, everything we see now is due to the use of mobics at the front, at the moment, these are just plugging holes and this is an attempt, er, an attempt, in principle, to stupidly lay any er case one way or another, they will obviously try to make a second wave of mobilization, it is obvious that they will try to cover the ukrainian land with corpses with their pressure on the ukrainian land, but

unfortunately, it is not easier for us, that is, they will fight with the number of corpses and already now it is clear that everything we hear from putin, everything we heard yesterday from his sycophant, and like solovyov, it boils down to putin's phrase that he said at the meeting with the materials of the dead russian servicemen about what is the difference of what he will die, otvodki from a traffic accident, or how heroes are at the front, as a matter of fact, now they are breaking through this story, sacred guilt, that it is not scary to die, thank you, mr. councilor, for this inclusion in the live broadcast of the espresso tv channel vadym denysenko, adviser to the minister of internal affairs of ukraine, executive director of the ukrainian institute of the future, let's move on, occupying the city , russia will go to kharkiv again as soon as the ground freezes, they plan to use the forces of the poorly trained mobilized military to cut off the city from kyiv that the armed forces of ukraine were unable to move west to help the capital, the

ukrainian troops will repulse the attack and this is actually the main thing from the interview of the head of the kharkiv garrison, brigadier general serhiy melnyk, he talked about what he expects of a new attack by the aggressor army of the russian federation on kharkiv as only about the frozen ground and the enemy will use the power of poorly prepared mobilized persons, in principle, this echoes the statements of the main intelligence office that an offensive and an intensification of the offensive is possible from the east of our the country is possible in parallel with the northern direction, well, let's talk about this principle with a military analyst, a veteran of the russian-ukrainian war, oleksiy hetman, who is joining us. glory to ukraine, oleksiy , we congratulate you as a hero. good day. reconnaissance of potential offensive

actions of our enemy is possible from the south. perhaps they will build up in the east as well. how do you see the situation, taking into account the fact that armored vehicles, so to speak, are not rubber, they personnel they can, so to speak, mobilize to their heart's content, this is a matter of logistics equipment and officers, it's very good that you mentioned it precisely for some reason constantly when there were conversations about mobilization in the russian federation about their possible offensive from any direction on the entire front line everyone is constantly talking about the number of servicemen they can involve in these actions, up to these servicemen. i think that the russian federation has the opportunity to arm certain submachine guns and submachine guns, but to arm the appropriate number equipment according to their already regular schedule. that is, each military unit in which

it has motorized rifle regiments, others. they have a certain amount of armored vehicles, that is, tanks, guns and armored personnel carriers and infantry fighting vehicles. today, they have such a large amount of heavy, let’s say heavy weapons, they simply do not physically have enough of their industry is not capable of producing the amount of armored vehicles needed for one mobilized people, what they have in warehouses is almost exhausted, well, let's just talk about the tanks they have in storage near, well, near there 10,000 and a half are still there, they even count up to 15, but a small amount of old equipment that was stolen, which is all rusty, it can be brought to order in the amount of approximately 3,000 units, this is according to the calculations of intelligence analysts from our neighbors there well, from our partners, the united states, great britain, our intelligence. but in order to provide at least 200,000, they say about a larger number, so 200,000, all about 95

motorized rifle regiments, in order to provide them according to the norms of staffing they need at least 3,000 tanks and at least 10,000 heavy vehicles, these are armored personnel carriers, bmps and other wheeled vehicles . 250 other equipment to date, they began to work with a ratio of 1.8, that is, 6 days a week, 12 hours, well, three shifts a day for us hours. well, they can manufacture 900 such units, of which approximately 450 will be. well, we will now talk about tanks in order to to provide for these people, well, for the conscripted people, these are conditional 95 motorized rifle regiments, you need tanks, 6 for other equipment, 20 years of work for the military industry of the russian federation. well, we understand that these are such numbers for the clouds. what is 200,000 of them now,

the ground troops of the russian federation - this is 280,000, another 200,000 is 71% of the fact that they already have what they will arm them with, well, except for strelkovo strelkova, it is unclear, because once again they do not have the amount of equipment that is needed for these, well, these military groups to ensure this, it can be said that they will most likely create such units anyway, but these will be very light infantry units with which they will take massed numbers of people and more likely. they will simply send one of the conditional positions in waves and simply put people by counting the number. this can be what the exact direction is. actually, about the tactics that the enemy used at least before in bakhmut. now he is going, what has changed? it’s simple human shaft, we talked for a long time about not quite not quite yes, there was, they had

so-called battalions of critical groups - this is the same motorized rifle regiment, but a certain amount of heavy equipment was added, that is , it was formed specifically for conducting combat operations actions are certain units that we called a battalion of electric groups, this is a large number of people, well , relatively large, from uh, 800 to thousands, well, no more than a thousand people, and this uh, military unit, it is quite inertial for modern warfare, it is not very suitable because they are not well, inertial, that is, on mobile phones, that is, under bakhmut. they began to use the latest tactics, that is, attacks in small groups. they are called assault groups. these are from 10 to 30 people, depending on where it is taking place. this is an attempted offensive. this is in an urbanized area. is it a forest strip or a look, that is, to be attributed to 30

this is a group from the beginning of the bowl, well, often thick , it does not put people mobilized, which is just such a strange kind of intelligence, these people are simply put in the ground with our military personnel. thus, those who are behind them they find where ours is currently located in the new opposition and try to attack if they manage to advance a few tens of meters. i am not saying even a hundred. they immediately try to build some fortification structures there, damn it, even if the new trenches are suitable, other people are already these wastes , stormtroopers and they are starting to do something like, well, ennobling, all the places are being equipped so that the next retreat, the next offensive on their part will already begin precisely from these cities that they have equipped if if well, yes, if it were possible to get through, if they were knocked out of this city, well , they will cover and destroy post-ordered temporary structures with their own mortar or artillery fire so that we do not

use them. they repelled it, then it goes, then what you said goes, the second wave, the third wave, the fourth wave, and there can be up to ten such waves in a day . besides, they began to very actively use or saw as scouts the means of the electronic warfare council, that is, fighting that is, they have ground combat tactics directly on the front line, the news has changed a little bit, they are even starting to copy our equipment and are already starting to read the statutes , the nato combat statutes, what did their president say, that you need to learn from nato servicemen, but they screw up the appearance of these units. and what the essence and they either do not understand or simply cannot come to terms with it, because when such small groups fight, the same thing happens here, the chief sergeant or junior officer and these groups have certain boundaries of the strategic plan have the right to take tactical actions independently at their discretion

, that is, they communicate among themselves, these small units of ours are very good and they do it on the battlefield directly, they decide how they need to do what on their own. straight from point to point, if there was a wall between them, then our unit would simply climb the wall and move on, the russians never had a single one of them there, he read it all, a beautiful war criminal, a leader, so to speak of the wagner group and controls the league group , accordingly began to say that it is impossible to take bakhmut, that the ukrainians have built a bunch of defense lines, 500 defense lines, each house is a fortified district, so to speak, this de facto demonstrates that they sign up under their own incapacity, we understand this not because they are so clumsy, yes and because a lot of effort from our side was invested in the defense of bakhmut well, and accordingly bakhmut crime

unfolding of the situation in donbas as you can see well as they can for a very long time previously the previous question you answered me they corrected it in a timely manner. they are people who are there, my friends are familiar with them, they say that by all signs it is clear that they already, well, they no longer believe that it is possible to take this city , they say that they are still attacking. them, well, i'm sorry, such a word, some kind of inspiration, it can be seen everywhere, everywhere, on all the little things . what kind of people are there? they are paying attention to the five missions. they are fighting for this city and will not be able to take it because of that. well, well, how much more, 5 more months, i hope ended at that time that's why i had to somehow justify myself, because of the 100,000,500 line of defense that prigozhyn built for them, prigozhyn has something to say, and then i think that they have well, then it just causes, well, chornobayivka is resting. i think

that when people fight for five months, they can take one, not a very big one, well, a very big city, that's why it's beautiful, that's right. he says that there's more. well, there's no strength. we still have to do it, because it shifts the blame to our armed forces . she may have to shift the blame to someone. i think that in this case, let him continue to translate. but most likely, they will be responsible for withdrawing the troops and with this action they will stop because well, even their high leadership already means putin and who else is around him, maybe this already causes a smile, because well, if it is still not clear that you can't do anything, what do you do next? well, if you do the same actions , you will get the same result. if you do them 100 times, 100 times, you will get the same result, that's why they had to say it. well, finally they said it. have already outlined what exactly the enemy's attacks looked like and they continue to look like in the bakhmut region if we assume that they will use similar

tactics let's say they will apply them at a longer distance so on a much longer front line, what options do we have for countermeasures again it reminds me that there was information about the kharkiv region from brigadier general serhii melnyk, the head of the kharkiv garrison, who actually remarked in an interview that up to 200,000 people could go to kharkiv, which is an extremely large number well, what options do they have? well, we understand that destroying 500-600 people with heimers in the best case, as was the case in zmakiivka chulakivka, for example, in the kherson region, this will not be enough. why won't it be possible, look, we're waiting for it ,

uh , i understand that 2 minutes are left. will they be able to form such small assault groups all over the front line? no, they won't be able to, because now, on the contrary, they are starting to create 5 armies there, some kind of toast. well, they are following the narratives they had before, it is not yet the narratives of the second world war, why will we destroy a large number of people, you see they concentrate in the point well, not permanently, the dislocation point, this ppd is called a temporary dislocation point, they accumulate a large number of people because we keep their paths of movement under fire control, we see how their cart moves and that is why they forced to gather a large number of people in one place at the same time, weapons and equipment are also located there, that is why we are ptu-19 that we hit. that is, it is indicative, it is not because i am so stupid, they simply did not come out. as for kharkiv, there is a really large

number of people up to 20 000 can be gathered but again they don't have the heavy equipment to provide these people it's just going to be a very large number of people with weapons or as they used to say is this a problem for our armed forces yes of course it is a problem because it's a very large number of people but once again it is not it will be like that well, well-armed people, as it was at the beginning of this full-scale war , it is bad for us in february of the previous year, but i think that we will be able to hold kharkiv and everything around from my personal point of view. thank you, oleksia, always qualitatively reliable and interesting analytics oleksiy hetman military analyst veteran of the russian-ukrainian war well, khrystyna yatskiv and i now for a couple of minutes yes