but they are especially afraid after the first strikes of the armed forces of the so-called cotton that in august-september we recorded how such russians were leaving the territory of crimea, there were also cases when representatives of various power structures there, such as the fsb officers there, the prosecutor's office also took their families from crimea to russia therefore, in principle, the attitude of even those who support putin is actually masterful about the ukrainian federation, because they understand that sooner or later the armed forces will come anyway, and it is clear that there is no such support for putin, but at the same time it is clear that the fsb is very activated they are looking for so-called spies and so on, therefore the persecution is only getting stronger in crimea, maximum wiretapping in hacking funds, and so on. spoke well, listen to

the latest news from soledar, who is it, what, by the way, i quote so that you understand the new york, er, times , and we are following them, robert brody, er, the commander of the air reconnaissance group that is working now soledari wrote his telegram with the callsign magyar. perhaps it was signed in the same way, then you already know that the situation has not fundamentally changed overnight. fairy tales that they still have some successes there, they do not have any successes, because it continues in soledar, soledar, they did not capture it, we know from eyewitnesses who are there now and report about it, ivan uz, chief

consultant of the institute of strategic studies and candidates of economic sciences e-e joins the conversation with us mr. ivan good morning to you good morning studio good morning and you, the audience, you are so smiling, the russian economy may not have started working well that's why you have such joy well, let's say that there are all reasons for this that is, we so far we don't have data for the whole year, uh, i mean in 2022, but here are the data that appeared. last week, regarding the outflow of capital from the russian economy, they testify precisely to the fact that this economy is very close to failure. that is just such a figure, the outflow of capital from the russian federation in the third quarter of 2022 compared to the third quarter of 2021 increased 26 times, that is, you can imagine what it is like when money flows out of your country 26 times more than during the same

period of the previous lesson. for me , the best indicator of the state of the russian economy today is bloomberg wrote about the fact that the budget deficit was cut to the russian budget cut to 56 billion dollars. this is a lot in general for russia. 56 billion dollars, you know, i had a figure in rubles, if i didn’t i'm wrong there, three trillion, taking into account that according to russian data, by rubles, i mean according to russian data from the national welfare fund, it includes somewhere around 11 before october, but i know for sure that in october they took one, three, and one trillion already. that is, there already 10 regions and 3.3 - this is actually 33% of the entire reserve fund of russia, and this is despite the fact that we do not have a figure for november or december, and i think that if in november i was more or less unable to borrow funds they took 99% of funds from this fund in december

of this fund, that's why there's even less because it's a very big number for me, and you know. at the beginning of this year, a lot of people said that now in ukraine, the debt will be 100% of our gdp, even 106, but you know when you look at the same i and 227% of the ratio of their debt to the country's gdp. japan is one of the leading autonomous countries in the world, so you understand that the question is not how much debt you have, but the question is whether you are able to cover these colorful ones and whether you have enough countries that will help you with money from russia as well no one will help when we talk about the problem of the russian economy. we must understand that no one will especially burden them economically. and what about china? i am not sure that the chinese are interested and many analysts say that china is not very satisfied at all by the situation they

have, and i mean, first of all, the increase in food prices, because china is still the largest country in the world in terms of population, there is a clearer next step, or rather this year, india is already behind china in terms of population, nevertheless so far the biggest is china and for them the rise in food prices is a very negative factor and they understand that food prices have risen largely due to russia's military aggression against ukraine, that is, russia creates a problem for them plus a-and now due to the worsening of relations between let's say hypothetical collective measures geopothetic collective action and because of russia's aggression in china, economic problems arise. because they are provided with technologies thanks to which they have grown economically, they definitely do not like this situation very much and they understand the cause of this problem is precisely the russian federation, therefore they are unlikely to want to help russia with money, plus they all need to

be, now we are showing such an interesting animation. it seems to me very interesting how in 2022 germany reduced the consumption of russian gas by month in september, in fact they completely refused and uh now well, at the expense of norway there, including, and let me remind you that just a year ago, russian gas accounted for half or more than half of the german gas consumption in general. some idiots are absolutely excuse me for such a non -ethereal word er some er videos about er unfortunate frozen er europeans that petrosyan does not make funny pro-russian jokes that gas and it turns out that it is not much needed by anyone what did he remember that the russian president and the prime minister at different times, medvedev, well, he is, in principle, a genius

, he recently wrote that if you take away three electrons from lead, you will have gold, well, that is, he did not have much even in the school curriculum, everything consisted of only a-a from chemistry and physics from everything but from the economy it is also visible because he said that as soon as this ceiling is lowered on russian oil, it will jump up to $400 per barrel. he had such a great forecast, and something quite the opposite is already happening because there we retreat, then we advance, it’s somewhere in the same way from the same section, this is absolutely their logic. that is , in general, i have the impression that some methods in the russian federation that were written many years ago, 10 or more, are still lying around and they are still using them, that is, i let me remind you that when there was a crazy increase in gas prices, in the russian federation people constantly said in europe or in russia they said that this is it

now it is rare and what will happen in the winter and what will we have in the winter in the summer in fact in the month of august in the european union there was a real peak in prices on gas , that is, if we take data from the world bank in august, one british thermal unit appears to be one million, of course, because tanks of thermal units cost $70, and they measure gas by a single unit of e-e for the month of november. the price was already 35 in december, it increased but it increased to 36, that is, there was no crazy growth compared to august, it decreased twice by 7. if we take the peak points , then the price decreased by five times . with iron information, they are now filled by 83%, that is, what i have come across is a very significant number, it is filled, it is the largest in recent

years, that is exactly why for russia this method is their idea that now there will be a crazy increase in prices, it did not happen. this is bad as far as oil is concerned. russia really said that now the ceiling will be set and prices will soar, but they have not soared. why is that, first of all, russia is not the only oil producer? and secondly, those countries that still buy russian oil, they demand discounts . on marko yuroks russian-oil there is a number 52 record but we see that the real price is lower than forty dollars zabarv yurets why because all the buyers, that is, the main ones are china, turkey, india they buy but again discounts and russia cannot sell even at the price let's say so called ceilings because those countries that buy, they say no, give us even lower, and what is interesting is that the difference between economics and politics

is political russia says that we will not sell oil to those countries that will adhere to this ceiling, that is, those three countries that will adhere to the ceiling will buy for $60, and those who do not support this series buy somewhere for $38-40, but russia says, look, they don’t stick to it, and that’s why we sell to them, even though economically they just lose. it’s because of trade with those who, let ’s say, don’t stick to it. of this ceiling but well, let me emphasize that the economy is far in the first place, that's why they have such statements, here's another interesting thing, in the summer , the times seems to have been carried away. so quickly, they said that the fastest technological sanctions will manifest themselves in aviation, that is, that russia will very quickly go into a cannibalistic mode

when, well, the planes that are still in good condition will be disassembled for spare parts. and here is actually the latest news about civil aviation it is said that they do not have much success there, because there they are still holding on militarily. in the last 10 days, they seem to have had 10 accidents with civil aviation planes, including victims, planes crashed, rolled out, and so on , so we will be in 10 days 10 they have e-e from such emergencies or is it also how important it is how powerful it is, and whether it will develop in general in russia's transport industry a huge country here is how much this logistical will start to bush a car through a technological garden sanctions, i will remind you that in march, the former minister of ecology of russia, who,

if i am not mistaken, has been arrested in russia , that is, he is in prison, he made a comment in which he said that i advise all russians to change horses. why, because this is also a new form of transport which will not be affected by the sanction, because airplanes and boats and cars will all be affected, so earlier in russia i advise russians to remember how to ride horses and it is really so because they mentioned aviation when they went, it seems that in october there was a recommendation of the aviation department to pilots and reduce the use of the brake system when landing aircraft why because these parts are spare parts of aircraft that are responsible for the actual aircraft they cannot purchase them, they are under sanctions and that is why they already had problems with these components in october they said let's minimize their use, when you are going to sit there, they are born behind the runway during landing, since there have been two cases recently that they flew out somewhere, well

, they will be lying on the runways the policemen just take care of the brakes, he is saying very wrong that's what their propagandists would shout from the tv screens that there will be import substitution and in fact, their economy will only benefit from that in the russian federation, the truth is that substitution only happens on paper, someone very nice joked because it was another fever that import substitution in russia , when not all of them are made here, on the island of taiwan, a sticker that is made in russia will peel off. this sticker is most likely made in russia, but the chip itself is made in taiwan, so if russia likes to say about the replacement inverter, but you know, let 's still rely on official sources in the report of the central bank of the russian federation, which was issued on april 21 of the same year last year, there was such a phrase that at least three

years are needed for the import of replacement, which is important for the machine-building industry of russia and italy, that is, they are already in april on the 22nd of the year, they said that they cannot have immediate import substitution, at least three years is needed, he emphasizes that this is not an independent research center, this is the central bank of the russian federation, which they cannot say it is very noble to write, therefore, in fact, they do not have any special gene replacement, and this is their objection - it is that they will be able to bring these remy schemes to russia, unfortunately, such schemes exist, and by the way, we mentioned german gas at the beginning of the broadcast. when i look at the structure 97% of germany’s gas imports are there, so it’s like unspecified countries, that’s what worries me because the russian federation in 2021 provided 0.2 % of germany’s needs. to the designated countries, and that's why i worry

when i hear a statement from germany that i wouldn't be like that, according to their statistics in russia they buy zero but these undesignated countries will have significant amounts and under these designated countries there may be russia and we have there is no evidence that this is russia, so i am not ready to say about it directly, nevertheless, for me, as a person who researches tor fertilizer flows, this is such a problem that it is essential that there is no such way of circumventing these sanctions, mr. ivan, also about our economy a little bit interesting statistics appeared actually interesting data about the fact that ukrainians, and mostly ukrainian women who fled the war abroad, for example, in poland , our refugees paid 2.4 billion dollars in taxes, and this exceeded the amount of aid provided by the polish government, if you do not take taking into

account the expenses on education and medicine and actually , at the beginning, in the course of the russian missiles abroad, ukrainians spent some of their own savings. well, then they began to get jobs, and from that, the economies of the european countries, in principle, were also protected from the of some inflationary processes and from some crises, how much, how much they won and how much we lost in connection with the fact that and what happened to the outflow of our citizens abroad, well, definitely. this is what i always said that the fact that a lot of citizens of ukraine who were forced to leave first of all to poland, they found employment quite quickly, and this, by the way, is a good indicator of the so-called european integration capacity of ukraine. that is, we are already ready to be in is precisely because our citizens. here, please, is how quickly they find themselves in this to the new life of the eu is definitely a problem for ukraine

, because now this problem is that people have left, but ok, now there is a danger to life in it, but when the war ends and the reconstruction of ukraine begins, we will have to think about how to return these people, that is, people who have already integrated into life in poland in germany in other countries yes, i understand that there they partially live at the expense of the aid of these states, but since there are children, you correctly cited , for example, poland, that they won economic rather than programs, but after all, the economy received quite a lot of labor resources and qualified people, you should note that even at the beginning of the war there were many statements that the difference between refugees from ukraine and refugees from other regions of the world is that refugees from ukraine have a better education and they can -e to work in, let's say , those positions in the economy, i called it that, which require more thorough knowledge, that is, in this

knowledge . syrians from other countries. they came to ukraine to return to ukraine. in order to leave a mark, i still hope that this intention to return to ukraine will remain. however , now the economy of ukraine has really lost the labor resources of people with money. the money is now in the eu countries. first of all, poland, and this would help their economy, and let's say so, it creates problems for ours , but thanks to the help of our partners, i will not say that our economy will be so critical for now, but when the aid ends and reconstruction begins, i emphasize that it is necessary to somehow create all the conditions for all these people to return, the chief consultant of the institute of strategic studies and candidates of economic sciences talked with him about the economy of russia, ukraine and europe, well, let's go

further, pavlo kishkar, people's deputy of ukraine of the eighth convocation of the armed forces , will appear on our air ukraine is located in the mykolaiv region, actually we want to say that the espresso tv channel together with the forpost ua charity fund has launched a new fundraiser for the purchase of powerful portable solar battery stations panels for our fighters. we invite our viewers to join the meeting, and we will ask mr. pavel e what, why, what are these e battery stations needed for, and how long are they needed, mr. pavly, good morning, greetings, glad to hear you in the studio, and we also hear you and see what can you tell us a little bit about these battery stations, how important they are needed today, we are finalizing the

communication system in its power supply , because electricity is now disappearing everywhere, not only in people's homes, and we at the front, that's why we have generators, the ability to charge from the sun is quite weak in winter, but if there is no engine, the generator does not work, it was decided to supplement the communication system with powerful batteries that will allow even without electricity without using a generator, by the way, it cannot always be used because it reveals your position, so we will be grateful for such crazy support, i would add that these are ukrainian-made stations and this is also important, the money will not go abroad , it will stay in ukraine, especially since china has we have to, but life also forces civilians

to take all kinds of chinese products, well, dear, this one is ukrainian, there will be a station for sure. it’s great, we need to raise money, uh, a lot, i announced that you seem to be 18,000, i think that this need within the armed forces is big enough, i know that on defense needs. next year, these stations are already planned for purchase , so i think that this issue will be comprehensively resolved in the next year. already checked here on our own experience, they somehow collected sterling, and our viewers collected not only on the page, but it has thermal imagers and other necessary gadgets for our

military . god, this is a technical solution that needs to be chosen. so, for example, we want to separate the control points. the solution will be very interesting. i hope that in two or three months we will be able to share the idea and implement it with other units. i think everyone will like it. well, we can’t ask what the current situation is in mykolaiv oblast, in which you can tell the news , what is happening there, say it is stable , controlled units of the armed forces and other military formations, e . discussed with the mayor's office of ochakov from the military-civilian administration of the oblast, we are making every effort to help the military, who are not currently engaged in the performance of their functional

duties, also help the civilian population to warm up and solve the issue of glazing in connection with the bombing of ochakiv, in fact, and in general, if we talk about this particular area, in your opinion, can the russians try to make any breakthroughs in the mykolaiv oblast, i think that they cannot, actually, there is a natural obstacle of the dnipro. i think that closer to there will be some good changes in the socks in the spring, we need to give tim new ones so that he can announce them ok well, i understand that in fact the dnipro itself is also a certain obstacle for us for offensive actions that is , it is definitely definitely well, but we are working,

we think how is war for you, it is not, not something what it began on february 24, 2022, here are some of your impressions. to compare what began in 2014 and this full-scale invasion, how much has the enemy changed and we have changed, at least those veterans who were in the 14th warship gained experience. the hardest part of the war is the human sacrifices and we. too, at least more prepared for war but we also do not miss the opportunity to the family of our fellow fox who died the day before yesterday, he was released 3 days ago, he is already in the oleksandrivsky hospital in kyiv , he expresses his condolences. these are really the best the people who lived with you are the best

people in every sense of the word. it is very difficult to lose. it certainly seems to me that for many ukrainians, there are no such families who do not have close friends. who died, they wrote that from my native village, a big reeder died, er , a liar boy died, lord mykola, probably because he is younger than me, and this is such a cold shower for the village and a return to reality, or in poltava oblast, there were actually no such large-scale hostilities but people from poltava from the poltava region they are at the front the 46th

brigade, for example, was the basis of the defense of the soledar poltava brigade so now the 46th is so that's why everyone's attention, including ours to a greater extent, is now on donetsk region and the losses we are bearing now are a high price our indifference, our lack of qualifications , our low quality of services in judges, the police , and civil servants. reforms and rapprochement with european standards and legislation even during the war and that the european union has the right to insert these requirements despite the war, well, i'm just talking, but in very general words, but for a

person in simple words, it means that a judge will become a judge, in the end a policeman will become a policeman will eventually become a military man in that sense how should it be in europe or in a normal world then it will work this word reform is not just a word for a word it is concrete changes in life it the services that we have, by the way, the action works, everyone is wondering, what in the world is there such a tool so that the judicial reform will eventually be completed and judges will become moral authorities and not just people who earn a lot and drive expensive cars so that prosecutors will become will they be called after the reform in some other way, they will probably be called prefects, they will become prosecutors so that the policeman , when he has some official duties, so that he does not shoot at children in the camp, and that he fulfills his functional duties

even where it is dangerous and scary, but they must be carried out, this is what will change, this is about these european reforms or european songs, this is the quality of these services, in particular those provided by the state itself thank you very much mr. pavlo pavlo kishkanov mp of ukraine 8th convocation of the armed forces ukraine from ochakov from the mykolaiv oblast joined us well, let us remind you that expresso , together with the forpost ua charity fund , launched a new fundraiser for the purchase of powerful portable battery stations with solar panels that can themselves recharge well, join this fundraiser, the current is designed specifically for military needs, sealed, shockproof, works in difficult weather conditions, this station will significantly increase the combat effectiveness of our defenders

, the espresso tv channel, together with the forpo tua charity fund, launched a new fundraiser for the purchase of powerful portable battery stations with solar panels for our we will transfer the fighters of the first five stations to the 406th separate artillery brigade named after general khorunzhy oleksiy almazov, join the gathering, let's get closer to victory together glory to ukraine, join the gathering, every hryvnia is important, regardless of what your wealth, prosperity, and income are, one way or another, our great victory depends on every action of our little one, and when it will come. well, besides all that at the end of this hour, i want to tell our viewers

that the espresso team also wants to get to know you better, and for this you need to fill out the introduction form. that way, we will learn more about you. for this, we need to scan the qr code. we will show it later on the screen, the actual filling of the form takes only 5 minutes of your time at the end of january among all the participants of the survey, valuable prizes from the espresso tv channel will be drawn. get to know you well, our regular hour of today's part of our marathon with andrii serhiychuk is coming to an end , and the time for news is approaching. anna ivamelnik is ready and will tell us about it