it is formed, it is still present, uh, the fear is present, but it is a completely different form of fear, it is felt very well in the road, it is felt in berlin, it is felt almost in all european capitals, for example, i feel it very clearly, and even in vienna, among austrians, they stopped being afraid so how they were afraid and now, in fact, the question is what they are more afraid of the putin regime or what will happen after it, and this factor actually has a great influence on the mentality of decision-making, but not there is less feeling that putin's regime can do almost anything it wants and can raise rates as it wants, it has largely

gone from the west, thanks to us, of course. but nevertheless, 10 months plus wars are beginning to wipe it out, it is very noticeable how it will continue this situation, do you generally hope that germany will really agree to the provision of leopards? will this all be such a long process as all these processes that have been observed? i am almost sure of this. i know that the internal discussion is already quite for a long time, and these are not discussions that are abstract enough, but these are discussions about under what conditions that this will give, uh, it is also about options for technical support. everything will be a joint solution,

a joint western solution is so badly wanted in berlin, which is cautious so far, and there will be something like a tank community, which for some reason in berlin likes to be called a tank consortium, if it’s consortions don’t care what is his name, the main thing is that he worked in that, the probability is very, very high regarding the question of when it is, i hope that it is real in very, very not possible, as they sometimes say, cautiously, but in the short term well, that's how i feel the discussions berlin and what are the germans really afraid of politicians are really afraid that they will not be able to play a role in any discussions about the

future of russia that they will lose not just the status quo, it's them they don't expect what they were like, but they already arrived, they won't be able to, eh to play a leading role in any further er further discussions and the second thing they still very much fear is that at some er moment er russia may go for further escalation and the escalation as regards us er yes and raising the stakes in relation to nato, such discussions are modeled when putin realizes that he needs to raise the stakes as much as possible, he will try to check , uh, check nato for solidarity.

earlier but nevertheless, such discussions are still not theoretical. that is, you mean that russia can strike a member country absolutely . are large-scale and we know for sure that russia, at some point, can raise the stakes, or will it raise the stakes. this is rather a small probability, but it is likely that it is still taken into account in the decision-making by our european allies, and it is noticeable in berlin it is actually felt in paris it is felt in other european capitals and they also understand that putin can act

in a non-linear way, so to speak, realizing that he can not militarily in any way achieve decisive progress in ukraine, he will somehow switch to one level more but then tell me what is the logic if we believe that joining nato is this is the result that will bring security to ukraine and here it turns out that in fact putin is ready to fight with nato so where is this security where does it live this is actually putin's logic to show that nato is not so solidary as to face any threat. i would say that in fact a few years ago, a couple of years ago, nato itself. i saw this in the baltic countries and in poland

and in other countries. it is a general discussion that is detached from ideality. and what will happen if russia goes ahead? i think that these discussions are now expressed like this, it is absolutely obvious . but nevertheless, this is a different nato and putin understands this very well, and maybe this is one of his last chances. show that nato is not a player who finally went to another league. or rather, russia fell to one league . such football slangs are less. if russia loses now. and it will lose if ukraine joins nato, and it looks the same, that is, there is a technical side. but nevertheless, there is a strategic way.

it's completely clear. that's what kissinger started to say . by the way, how long have i known him? in my opinion, i remember the second time in my life when he admitted his own. if you want a mistake , it's probably the ability of strategic analysis and that's what he said this is how ukraine should be a part of the western world, yes, ukraine should be a member of the eu, but it is known that we must definitely wait, this is not a question of today, tomorrow or the day after tomorrow, what he started to say clearly is that ukraine should become a formal member of nato or an informal one, or rather no or but already now, being informal or part of the nato space is fundamental a change of position and this is

largely happening today's strategic thinking and western and by the way, pay special attention to this to non-westerners. and tell me whether the authorities are warning about what is happening with the expansion date and with turkey's behavior and with the fact that we said six months ago that sweden and finland would definitely become members of nato, now there are such questions, i am already worried about the issue of nato expansion, and i believe that in fact, when we used to have the feeling that we were hindered there european countries, germany and france, which are afraid of russia and so on, now there are three large blocs of countries that need to be talked about first - it's the usual same germany and france, the second point is what

position will the united states take strategically of course, they are in favor of our membership in nato, but the question of when and under what conditions is actually being discussed in washington today , and the american side is taking a somewhat cautious position here. it is not about strategic membership. and the third is, of course, turkey, because turkey will play its own game and this is obvious. i think that the issue of sweden and finland will be resolved. is there a formal or conceptual agreement

regarding what it receives in the near future in the context of nato, it may relate to new weapons in the armament and many other things, and then in fact sweden will formally join finland, i have no doubt about this, but the model that sweden now applies which concerns the signing of a special defense agreement by it and the united states, this can not be the way we can go , waiting for a solution to the question, to know how practical this model is in general, it is to be the moment of normal accession to nato is actually not so much swedish as well, i don't want to put an

equal sign here, of course. japan, where the states have a security agreement, this is an agreement on alliances and the states will help all countries in the event of any attack, this does not replace membership, it is also promising, but if the question of when and under what conditions will be resolved, then of course the agreement with by states which actually provides security guarantees, the second elements of deterrence that nato and its allies will provide. and by the way, the policy of strategic weakening of russia as a result of these agreements as a result of the strategic projection of the entire west and us as

part of the west, this may be a temporary solution until the moment of joining nato this is one of the main decisions that are really being discussed very lively, the americans will actually go for it in washington of internal politics from er, as well as the administration, and today er, the republicans receive a very powerful not just two-way bipartisan, as they say about freud, but also a bilateral consensus of support for ukraine, but they will be ready to raise the ego qualitatively, eva. i think that this is enough enough enough and i also believe that

today europe is not the whole of europe, but it is nevertheless a part of europe ready to start a discussion about such an option, well, a few months ago, on the leopard, how did you and i start? nobody wanted to talk, but at least in closed formats a discussion about and what will be our security guarantees, what will be the form of deterrence, since it cannot remain the same where in russia they are being conducted and very actively and tell me, mr. pavlo, in principle, what do you think about the format of the lublin triangle that we saw in lviv with these the other day, when president zelenskyi met with the president, he talked and talked about how effective this format is in the framework of the european union, and whether

it helps or hinders our preparation for european integration, if you really look at it and this definitely does not interfere with me, in fact, i would really like to and i offered various options for how to reboot central europe in the literal sense. i believe that central europe and the definition itself should change when our friends joined the eu . there were various other ideas, in fact, what is the current vysegograd format, it actually does not work , or is it internal tensions and discussions there hungary, the czech republic, poland, in slovakia, there is i believe that it is necessary to generate a new drive and a new vision, what is central europe and how is it

the institutional one will be formalized, and why should it be done that way? that is, it was not perceived in such a classical i do not want to say to old europe, i don’t know how old it is, and to classical europe with such and such caution, i would say or even cautiously what i am today i see in some capitals, in particular in paris, and we need to get out of the logic that central europe looks the way it looks now, it definitely wo n't look like that, it's outdated central europe is actually new i wouldn't say geopolitical player but nevertheless, it is definitely a new player for europe and possibly a new player for the world, but for this, central europe must be connected with a system of guarantees and a system of security support with key players,

first of all, such as mine, like the states, maybe it will be afraid, maybe it will be a certain expanded format in which it will not be limited by geography and will include some countries in the pacific indian ocean region, that is, i actually do not exclude any even broad alliances and coalitions today moscow kommersant reported that the internal political bloc of the administration of the president of russia is headed by the same serhiy kiriyenko, whom we constantly see in the regions of ukraine occupied by russia, has started preparations for the 2024 presidential elections, and of course it is implied that the participants in these elections will be vladimir putin. how about you what do you think putin 's election campaign should look like? is it the victory in the war company or the return to peace company? what does putin have to plan for 2024? well, i

think it would be better for you to delay the interview kirylenko, i think that he will definitely not agree , since he will be one of the key managers of the company. i think that today's russia is not a war prospect, we will definitely not support it. at least part of the russian elites understand it. it is difficult for me to say about every group or every plan, but we know that part understands very well now there are calculations and they are sufficiently detailed and relatively reliable that russia has already begun to lose as a result of the introduction of oil price restrictions and as a result of the oil base somewhere around 150-180 million dollars per day exactly on the day and when another embargo on petroleum products will be introduced

and, accordingly, two more restrictions on various types of petroleum products. this amount will grow to 250 plus someone calls the number even 280 if you use school arithmetic. this is 100 billion per year, of course, there will not be such sums as a result , there will be many circumvention schemes, there will be many tricks, but the blow will be furious, and if further restrictions on gas and sanctions regarding the russian nuclear sphere are introduced, and as well as investments and the mining sector in general, in fact, russia, from the point of view of its economic model, is going nowhere and this is nowhere, that's for sure. no, what putin can offer even inside the country is to really hunt down people

there, it can be done for a long time. propaganda works for sure. yatayete was a song. what was the name of the song? do they want russian wars, not even yevtushenko? it turned out that they are hatyat. it turned out that the majority wants and wants to be absolutely sincere . it also turned out that the majority wants to go forward. it can be replaced by something and must be replaced by something common enemies common understanding uh who is oppressing us there and putin as the only one who is the main squeak of russia something like the main bodyguard do you remember once uh the head of the state duma uh he said that russia is putin putin is russia, but i think with this

logic, kiriyenko will lead putin to the elections. but putin actually does not have many options. the first option is somehow to negotiate with the west, and the other option is, as we have already said , how, again, it is special. question but nevertheless, he can raise rates a-ah, but he can raise rates only and exclusively if he receives the direct support of at least china and now in reality it does not look like that for many reasons , so i think that putin will have to one way or another just make concessions and go for a different understanding of the role of russia, the role of russia as a criminal country, a country that cannot be

a geopolitical player, that treated the world with nuclear weapons, and it is enough to perceive the stakes, but i also do not rule out that it has red lines in he is not in the head either will go for one more, or maybe even several escalations, escalations specifically with ukraine, or escalations in general, both with ukraine, and in general, i emphasize that i do not rule out that putin is ready to get out of some kind of escalators with an escalator strategy, even outside the borders of ukraine, he actually always had the logic is that if he encounters fundamental obstacles, he raises the stakes, this is the first time in 20 years, but realistically, i believe that putin

's line for ukraine as an independent ukraine in principle did not begin in 2003 , when he wanted to put it on our heads. if remember the idea was a joint economic space, it's about the fact that president kuchma signed and ego was killed and successfully killed and the idea to take away our gts because of the idea of ​​the so-called tripartite concert from germany where gazprom wanted to get 51% and goodbye and this is the first line on the clear colonization of ukraine, the common economic space and obtaining the gts, as soon as it failed , tuzla appeared and then everything is very good there since 2004, we remember that, in fact, 20 years ago. it was putin's absolutely consistent line, and now he wants my emu a in the summer, russians need to make a clear

conclusion about where they see themselves and russia in the 23rd year and beyond. thank you, thank you, mr. pavlo . the minister of defense of latvia in 2010-14-201922 director of the analytical center at the europolis center say hello to your publics ukraine and he defends the idea, by the way, this is not the first time we are talking about this with them, this is an important point that the russian federation can try to see what is happening with ukraine, try to interrupt it, it will want to break through , nato's united front will try

to invade it the territory of nato or to launch an attack on the territory of one country, what is needed to see how the union will act if it cannot effectively protect a nato member country? it is clear that the very importance of such security systems is simply it will be called on our eyes and we perfectly understand each other, well, to be honest, he says that there are two countries that are such close goals for russia in this situation, with such a solution, in fact, it will be accepted : the republic of latvia and the republic of estonia. well, you want the republic of estonia and the republic of latvia, yes you had a good time. yes, but this is not a secret. you know this all the time. this was always repeated at all the dances of latvian demonstrations at the embassy of your country in moscow. our students will sit in riga. this is a schoolboy i know, you know, we are suffocating. and how much is latvia, the question is, what else has lesos done so much? military science is generally ready for such a possible development of events.

similar provocations can happen. whatever. these are the options you are considering. to be honest, when you spoke with 40 parents and the armed forces, you considered such options, or this one is not considered possible at all, well, of course we are we are considering all options in the ministry of defense and in politics in general, but i would like to say that this is the scenario you were talking about, anyway. i wouldn't want to fully believe him. 10 years ago even before the attack on ukraine well, i have to say that over the last 10 years, we have invested a lot in the first part of our defense, and i have to say that we are not afraid, yes, even though we are of

course small states, but we already have a lot of tincture they are now integrated into nato concrete time, too, now we already have it. let's say yes, well, a more or less serious contingent, too, of our friends from the alliance, that is, in principle, we are not afraid of this scenario, but i think that such a scenario is also not very likely, we exclude only one moment, that is, if, uh, russia, if putin wants, in principle, to start a war with nato himself, and i think that this is the case, but in my opinion, it would be a very stupid decision because, uh, now, when he, uh , how is it possible - he can no longer say in russian move forward in ukraine and on the

counter, there is a lot of sweat on the russian side of technical casualties, that is, the discovery that some front, especially with a nato state, and i must say not with a nato state, the nato organization, it would be very difficult, it is impossible in principle yes, that's my name, and in principle it meant someone who, well, or some kind of weakness in moscow, that is, we want to start a war with nato. oh, and on account of the ideas that s with such an attack, uh, russia can somehow uh, let's say that they will suddenly affect the internal structure of nato, it's more impossible, yes. maybe 10-15 years ago, such a hypothesis was that not all states will help at once. there is no alliance power in place. in the army itself, they are big and the territory is small. now i think

it’s simple. well, it would be crazy. how do you imagine the current situation in general, from the point of view of relations regarding weapons rates in ukraine, how much do you think the mood of europe changes now and how much vot takie countries such as poland, latvia , and lithuania may have an impact on the countries of the so- called old europe. i think that we have made a very big impact . what we did not get, like the baltic states and poland, is the policy that we would like. from nato of the european union this is clear, but i think that we were critically important for you and for ukraine in order to influence the opinion of other western states, especially now, and of course this is our job, eh, it is very difficult, i must say because eh

before, we didn't want to believe it, yes, and now, in principle, they have, uh, if i'm talking about the western state, yes, they don't have any more arguments against us. it turns out to be more or less such a situation that uh, if we say that this is what we need to do, then the dream is like this. we are certainly fighting for it and we are principe, this is their business because i am saying this not because i want to say that this is our role. it is very big. it just hurts us so much that you have such losses too, that you have to fight only for a long time and this help does not come . we and you wanted this, that is, we will continue to implement this political position. just as we

will continue to prepare for ukraine to become a member of the european union and nato . that there are many problems that you must also solve in your ukraine, but that we will insist on this. this is clear, and our influence is much greater now in nato and in the european union, and the personal and state influence of those who are here is much greater than five years ago. it's very obvious. i'm saying in principle that it's a small state. yes, we could just. well, they 'll change it somehow. here's the thinking on the question. what do you think in principle? here's the result of these wars. how will the west treat such things in the future? here's how to act