очень let's say that there are a few hundred of them , and so on. some of them may have bought a bicycle here in jurmala, and so on. but as you heard, we are probably changing the law now, too, because our citizenship law was... it is built on such a classic system. if you know the systems that included the usung vines and usually, that is, the territorial, that is, the legal basis and the ethnic one, it meant that we lost a lot of people in immigration too, if it is, for example, how in germany if you said that you, your grandmother was latvian, but you live there in siberia, then you could come to latvia to get benefits and get citizenship. even if you didn't speak latvian there, you didn't know anything . there

are, for example, also baltic germans who could leave for germany, that is, we are now stopping this law because we think that 30 years was already enough so that if someone else wanted to move to latvia, let's say yes to their hearts, they could do it now, i don't want this opportunity to be used by people who, somehow , want to do it only because of the war, or simply go west to us, that is, i think that this law will cease to exist , people all- still latvians, that’s it, that’s a check latvian, he lived and lived and then he wanted to join a historical family well, in general, how do we define that he is latvian, yes but if he didn’t want to do it in 30 years israel exists . even in the 48th year, people are going and i and you are not they end with what we differ from, well, the

state of israel has palestinians as our neighbors, we have russians, that is, that is, of course, this law is also changing in my opinion , parliament, this is because of the political situation. according to the opinion that these laws will simply be used by people who are not actually latvians, yes, and you know. we have a look at the statistics, so this law was used where the move was the first, and there 5 well, it could be 15 years , some larger amount, the amount of people well, now, in principle, before the war there were units, just go to me, i remember the restoration of latvian citizenship was always generally not connected with the national connection of territorial belonging, the citizens of 1940 , their descendants, this is the essence of it, it always was it was definitely

territorial, that is, we could be russians who had a grandmother who was a citizen of latvia 30 there in the ninth year, you can not speak latvian at all, you can love putin and you will still get uh, citizenship, that was territorial approaches, i get it because there are more changes, there will not be those who wanted citizenship, they got it. tell me, what do you think? you talked about what the russian- language series will do . the strength of your country, because he says again, you always had very strange political associations, he largely expressed the interests of the russian-speaking population, but he was an estonian politician, he had an estonian party in which there were estonians русские это было сложное партия есть сложное праня ето проция столбское простой хлевых хлевых let's say so or a centrist as you like,

she always speaks absolutely clearly and shot that you go to one party and if you don't go to other parties for a week, it looks somehow strange until now now it’s like this , but the state of israel, what if the jews are in one pair, and the raptor is completely different? well, it’s not quite pure. yes, it was, but i have to say that there’s also something in my party. latvians were probably represented by no more than 25%. this is true, but i must say that here is also a question of definition. well, i do not think that my party and many other so- called latin parties do not defend the interests of the russians . but there too, uh, they don’t make sundays and don’t divide people there, as the deputy pezhnikov

says. well then, of course, it is very difficult to be in such a party, yes. but if you are a russian who is a latvian patriot who can and does speak latvian too, and he is ready to join our army, by the way, we have a lot of russian-speaking people in our army, or russians too, yes, and there are no problems with him, they are patriots of our state, that is, there are no problems here , but secondly, you know, you cannot analyze the party spectrum , for example, in latvia, based only on this history, because we now live in the world in general such a strange situation later what is happening in our country in all the states, at the same time, there is political fragmentation and also polarization, look even at the same with america and there in germany or france, that is,

we have a lot to say about how young democracy should be said, and in general, consolidate parties as such because this train in many cases, and it has already left, they are like the 19th century or after the second world war, and this is a problem of all democratic states, even you will have it . it's political power, it's also behind my back, it's a country and i'm free, it's an inscription on the statue of liberty in a dirty hall in riga, to which no one was allowed during the soviet era, but now, thank god , everyone is allowed in. but this is self-concept. who do you want to see there? i think that yes and i am

sure that after this war there will be more. yes, of course, and we know why the latvian people's front won at the end of the 70s, because the first thing they did was that they gave autonomy and rights to all the other institutions, that is, we did not have an ethnic opposition . the latvians and the rest did not exist . only the imperialists who are against us are dust and all the others who are close to us. well, you can say that this is the birth of such a political nation. say such a pure political or pure ethical nation and it will always be together, it will be mixed because if there were no otyshes or no estonians, then there would be no estonians, not

laptnoi they will not have the same right, they have the same right, even after the adoption of our constitution in 1922, even germans, then barons, they were like citizens of latvia, i did not receive, in principle, the same, all the same rights, as with any other, thank you, lord, publics artispace the former minister of defense of latvia, the director of the metric center, the europeans are needed in the center of the field, the center was on the air, and we talked about how the baltic countries look today, how the baltic societies look like, in which you can say such a huge, huge level of victory and support for ukraine and e- to help her to victory. i think it is very important, in the few minutes that are left before the end of our conversation with you today, i will try to answer several questions that have already been

proposed to me, dear viewers, so if the united states is afraid that russia will not collapse, and that is why the supply of military equipment is a brake on us or attempts to stop the offensive of the armed forces of ukraine, even if our military can actively advance with the available weapons. well, this is a very interesting question, to which you want to answer what you want to analyze, what do you think? that the united states slows down the supply of weapons because they are afraid that the russian federation will not collapse, and the united states, first of all, may not slow down the supply of weapons to us, but believe that they are supplying the very weapons that is needed so that now our armed forces can act successfully time and time again, they may not be afraid of what you think, they may not be afraid of the collapse of russia, but say russia's use

of nuclear weapons, because the united states , if the president of the united states, i sit and think how i will react. well, let's say that nuclear weapons will be dropped on the dam in the kiev sea, as the western publications write here. well , we will see the death of 5-7 million people there, so how should i react after that, should i carry out a nuclear strike on russia or must respond, as we promised, with conventional weapons and strike at the russian armed forces. and how will the russian armed forces be able to respond after this strike, if i know that they can respond with nuclear weapons and let's say 15 million people die there in new york, what will i do after that to do well if i stay in the usual where a nuclear strike on russia immediately or try some other deterrence measures well this looks absolutely

crazy but if you are the president of the united states and you have a nuclear button then you sit and what do you think about this, the real problem is this . for you, let's say think about making yourself tea tonight, is it still possible to have tea tomorrow morning? what will happen to europe in general? maybe it is not so important for the united states in general, if, say, europe disappears, it is necessary to consider how the united states will be in this situation, there is an interesting topic for the briefing it can be conducted with the heads of the units of the armed forces and special services. and i think that they can be guided by this, they can consider it, well, i am also reading a psychological portrait of putin or some kind of report. we don't read with you, but the president

to connect the state - you read it every day, he discusses with specialists whether it is possible to proceed more or less cautiously from our point of view, how can this be done, you see that thousands of people are dying, but if they gave more weapons, less logically, fewer people would die in the hands of ukrainian soldiers, but if you have on the scales, on the scales of the scales, there are, as a result, some number of tens of thousands of victims of the war, and there, let's say, 20-30 million well, you will have to manipulate such numbers in your consciousness, which is better if a few thousand, several tens of thousands, a hundred thousand people died, or if 20-30 million or 50 died, i would never want to be the head of such a state. to be honest, because i am not sure that i have such a stable pharmacy that i would sit like this in the evening, over tea, we thought that it was better for 50,000

to die or 50 million to die, and to what extent is it possible to calculate the consequences of maidia, but i have to do this every day. i work as a political analyst, but i am not responsible for it. if i were responsible, maybe i could i would have a different problem with my psyche, and i think that people who have such mental problems should not run for the positions of heads of state at all, that's why i always say let the states be managed by professional politicians, this is a job that requires a certain mental organizations, if you have not been professionally engaged in politics for decades, you must make a mistake at some stage, you are doomed to make a mistake and will be responsible for the death of a large number of people, this is what life looks like. so i do not think that the united states will stop the offensive of the armed forces of ukraine. they are trying to demonstrate to president

putin that he will still not stop the events so that putin realizes this and stops himself because putin lives all the time in a world where ukraine and the west are about to stop here's the trash, we need to push a little more, time is playing on us, biden will either not be re-elected or he may die at this age. and i am a young man , i am 70 years old. i still have 10 years left for the war. it is not known how far this will reach putin, but the united states is doing everything possible to make him it is not us to stop him, it is a difficult complex analytical work of hundreds of people, this is how

the whole state machine works, the state department, the pentagon, the presidential administration, every morning, briefings, consultations, meetings with the secretary of state, a traitor for national security, a secret report intelligence reports from putin's entourage satellite images reported by psychologists distribution of forces is internal conflict possible you sit and analyze all this and of course you analyze the situation at the front she decides everything, this is the answer and by the way this is the second question that is catching up here now we can see how much military aid to ukraine by western countries is increasing, what has changed for our western partners that contributed to the acceptance and more decisive steps, first of all , what has changed is that everyone sees that the armed forces of ukraine are determined to continue resistance to liberating their territories but together with this,

what has changed is that everyone sees that russia is not calming down, it was believed that if they demonstrate the gallantry of the ukrainian armed forces, the modern weapons that they can liberate the territories, then the russians will begin to calm down , as i have already said, they will begin to draw certain conclusions that this is not a winning option. like in a real card game you have us we gave them all the trump cards you don't have any cards what are you playing but putin shuler he doesn't want to see it he's sitting with sixes himself sixes but he's sure to get into a dunk it absolutely means that if it does not work, this mechanism does not work. it is necessary to saturate the ukrainian armed forces with more modern weapons and offensive weapons, the issue is not that you

will not capture anything, the issue is that you will not protect anything from what you captured sooner or later, and your anti-tank missile system will not works. you may have seen the scandal that the vice-prime minister arranged today, come on, people, here is the answer to the question, so as long as the russians do not understand it, so much will the military support of ukraine increase, not even quantitatively, but qualitatively how do you say stupid skabeeva or the semenians don't know how they confuse oh zelensky already has everything except a nuclear bomb he doesn't have a nuclear bomb well , there is logic in this as well this is in order to drive your army

out of someone else's land away away away away you have to understand this, they are giving you an opportunity understand this because it happens in stages, as far as i am sure that putin is capable of understanding it, i don't know, but more and more people around will begin to understand it, there are of course people who are just mentally ill , patroshevkavalchuk well, you're just a moron, to be honest, you still read the four treaties, but its people are not like that, and this also creates a certain atmosphere so that they will help us more qualitatively and quantitatively as long as the russians do not understand this. you just have to realize it . on this holiday evening good day holiday evening day you see what

is happening with the ether thank you it is good i welcome to the program people and profits like kate moody 2022 passed under the sign of the invasion of russia into ukraine as a result of which there were energy and inflationary crisis, as well as constant disruptions in global supply chains today we look to 2023

with ian bremer president and founder of the eurasia group, which just published its annual ranking of the biggest geopolitical and economic risks, leads the list russia in exile, which continues its attacks on ukraine followed by all dolphin weapons of mass destruction inflationary shock waves and iran rounding out the top five and ane thank you for joining us no wonder you identified russia as the number one risk in next year, tell us about it, if you look at these 5 points, four of them are very similar aging dictators and technical advances, in fact, this is a whole group of people who make very destructive decisions without expert evaluation and without a system of checks and balances on their power and then is the most dangerous of of this group precisely because as of february of last year he made the most about it of all the great

leaders on the world stage now he and his country are paying for it and there is no way back to the status quo exists even under during the caribbean crisis, when we were threatened with armageddon, both sides had the opportunity to calm down and then return to business as usual, it is impossible for russia now because europe has already given up its energy sources, there is no way back nato is expanding ukraine will have the most combat-capable army in europe with all this putin is nothing so what we see in 2023 is the likelihood of a russian escalation of selective war against nato itself. next on your list is a leader who shares some of these characteristics in his unprecedented power all xinping is confirmed for an unprecedented third term as the leader of china

recently he even backed away from some strict covid restrictions could 2023 be something of a turning point for china's position in the world because of course china's second largest economy is by far the most technologically advanced country after the usa and who does not deny this, but the uncertainty is the risk that comes from such a powerful country due to the fact that it is managed in a rather capricious way by one person who does not listens to neither the technocrats nor the experts around him will also get rid of most of them by consolidating power for his third covid term we also saw that some of the regulations he introduced for his own technology sector took one trillion dollars from the market capitalization of the chinese market if you have a large corporation with from europe

or from the usa, which has a great influence on the chinese market, you cannot help but be concerned about this state of affairs, because a certain separation is created that goes beyond the rules provisions implemented by the american administration, let's go a little further on your list to the fourth point, inflationary shock waves are the main factor in the global recession, which, as we know , is coming, how bad everything will be , the situation in this regard is not permanent, since we already see that some high levels of inflation are decreasing somewhat in the usa and in some european countries but it will be with us throughout this year its influence will be especially felt for developing markets for countries that have a lot of debt the population there is angry, because they suffered from covids. and now, due to the increase in prices due to the war between russia and ukraine, they do not have the fiscal space to satisfy this population, as, say, in france or the usa, this leads to much greater instability on the ground in these

countries, perhaps cause a financial crisis in many developing countries in many emerging markets around the world in 2023 these things happen very slowly and therefore happen suddenly to many unexpected congratulation that you can suddenly get a huge capital for example from developing markets in a broader sense due to safer assets does not look quite realistic in such an environment this year due to the inflationary shock and the war in ukraine sixth place on your list is occupied by the energy crisis this is a particular problem for european economies as you see energy of europe that is changing or adapting and what place is left in it for the green transition in the long term, the green transition is more effective because of course the europeans are now in such a situation where they have to do everything possible and even impossible they have to be more efficient to get access to more

fossil fuels such as liquefied gas from the us germany has just received its first direct delivery but they also have to move more towards investing in post carbon renewables energy sources, all this is already happening because in 5-10-20 years, europe will be in a better position as a result of the powerful shock caused by the russian invasion, but in the near term of course, this means that your country will use more coal, that is, carbon emissions from europe and the world will grow, and this is of course a huge stress for the population and leads to the deindustrialization of europe. the biggest problem is that the production capacity in europe is so high that many large corporations, especially in countries like germany is going to withdraw a significant part of production from the eu and bring it to the western hemisphere to southeast asia, say, it is cheaper nowhere and this is the biggest challenge that arises against the background of the crisis. but you can single out several risks which are looming in particular on

developing countries, the energy risk, of course, if we talk about europe, then europeans can and want to pay much higher prices for liquefied gas, but what does this mean for developing countries that do not have such access? well , the same of course applies to food and fertilizers, it is very a serious problem is water risks and a lack of water, which is becoming a permanent system problem and not just a short-term crisis that needs to be responded to, all of this hits developing countries much harder, especially this concerns the countries of africa south of the sahara and the middle east, and finally, the most important thing, although this item is not included in the top five, because we do not care so much about developing countries, although it should be about human development, what we see after 40 years of globalization that led people out of poverty and created a global middle class now actually everything works in the opposite direction and more and more people are driven into poverty more and more people are starving more

and more people are losing opportunities to maintain education especially this applies to women and countries from the low level of income due to the pandemic due to disruptions in supply chains due to the russian-ukrainian crisis, all of this ultimately hits the countries that are currently developing the hardest, and of course they resent the rich countries that we call donor countries, but in reality, of course, the donors are the poorest countries that donate their resources their labor getting not much in return last year there was a huge advance in the field of artificial intelligence you actually used one of the artificial intelligence programs of intelligence to write the name of risk number three weapons of mass destruction is artificial intelligence an area that needs oversight artificial it is an area in which a small number of people cannot make decisions without any checks and balances and without proper input it is something

like china risks and russia , this list is mainly dominated by aging dictators and technological advances, and it turns out that there is a definite gap between these two groups, so when it comes to billionaires who make individual decisions about the future not only national security, but also how people should live, how we get information, how we consume, when we are controlled by artificial intelligence, generative artificial intelligence that can really act like a person in the 2023 turind test, they will probably overcome bots with artificial intelligence, you and i will not be able to distinguish whether we communicate in text form with a bot or with a person, these are things that can be used and with incredibly destructive purposes, especially in the conditions of a brutal democracy, i said tough and the united states, which once was in 1989 when the berlin wall fell, they were the largest exporter of democracy in the world, although it

was not without hypocrisy, today the usa is the leading exporter of tools that destroy democracy, not on purpose, of course, but this is a direct by-product of current business models and this is a very serious risk for the world this year, there are quite a lot of alarm signals and with what good news can you greet the nations at the beginning of the new year, the very fact that the usa and other large democracies are not collapsing proves that they are much more stable than people think, we all we are accepted because of putin or sydzipin and still less because of trump or bolzenara, and this is because there are institutional safeguards that do crazy things in the end or they are expelled or their terms of office expire, this is true regardless of whether we are talking about a developing democracy such as brazil or about the trigger headquarters, the european

union is much stronger, more stable. it has a stronger defense, fiscal energy and medical policy in response to all these crises that we are talking about, which is definitely nice that in the context of all the risks we are discussing there is a very strong call not to panic for those of us who are worried about our own political institutions now thank you very much for joining us today on franz 24 thanks for watching us don't forget you can listen to this and previous programs on our website or listen to podcasts you can also express yourself in the comments and ask questions on social networks before the meeting greetings, dear tv viewers