of course, and in the eastern parts, ukrainian troops are defending themselves on the western outskirts, and in this way we can say that soledar will no longer be occupied by the russian army in the sense that it will not be under occupation, there will be no garrison there because the city will be destroyed and it will turn into a permanent battlefield, and the ukrainian troops are simply strengthening their positions in more convenient places, maybe in the outskirts of the city or outside the city, but if you look at the size of this settlement, it’s not huge. the place in which it is possible to place your troops will be russian, and therefore, in fact, it is for wagner, for i mean for prigozhin, for the wagnerites, this case can become quite tragic and there can be quite negative consequences, we will see how it develops, but these are speculations in the leadership of the

operation against ukraine, when srorovitin was removed and gerasimov was officially placed over him, they testify that this very operation, which should have become the last proof, is beautiful that he has effective, er, effective tactics effective groupings turned into a defeat for him, in fact, and now gerasima already has carte blanche for which by the way, prigozhin was literally there a couple of weeks ago well, his subordinates openly insulted him in the information space and that of course, i don't think that it was overlooked by gerasim himself, and can we say that these personnel changes that have now taken place in the russian federation, where actually again this group, shoigu , gerasim in lapin, actually put the kadyrovs over these gunners means that now

putin is betting on such a, let's say, a linear scheme. you chiefs are actually these aggressive commanders, but alya prigozhyn should simply be relegated to the background, but so that they do not confuse the traditional picture of such a, let's say, unified command of troops in the russian army i think that, after all, he did not exclude anyone and putin is playing a traditional game and his kdbeshna when he tries to balance the system, that is, he sometimes strengthens one group, giving them the illusion of some kind of advantage, then he the lower group gives another group the opportunity to appear, and in this way, due to these artificial conflicts between them, he actually remains above the fight over the other under the rug if we remember what happened, for example, in september and october, when

sorvitin was nominated in the first position. he was given a blank card obviously, including launching missile strikes on civilian infrastructure, on energy infrastructure, i think that there was a plan proposed by sorovitin prigozhyn and so on that they are now using such asymmetric actions, i.e. missile with strikes on the energy infrastructure plus the work of the wagnerites, they can change the situation, they will be able to create a humanitarian crisis in ukraine, an energy crisis in europe, and somewhere, for example, at the level of the beginning of the 23rd year, they would actually take the initiative and be able to already on the fronts -e dictate your language and maybe even force the leadership of ukraine to negotiate, but now is the time when putin presented this group with a question , present your results, the results are such that you are spent, it is not clear why

the lion's share of russia's missile potential, in fact, you can say different numbers, but in fact, the lion's share of the potential has been spent, and now if there really is a conflict, well, for example, with china, i don't know what russia will actually fight for, because they will not be able to quickly correct the situation with their missile the potential of rockets, as they are weapons, and the wagnerites, well, in fact, they did not prove themselves, well, you can say that they were banging the head of bakhmut there, or now they destroyed soledar, but that cannot be with a military victory. therefore, now he is demonstratively giving gerasimo the right or opportunity to show himself. i don't think that gerasimo really wants this because he understands that russia is actually in a catastrophic situation and he can change the situation even by recruiting there 500,000 people when ukraine will receive state-of-the-art weapons. this is

a little asymmetric, again, a situation where russia can put in meat and throw out meat as much as it wants, but this will not give an opportunity to break the strategic situation again, take the initiative, well that is, we can say that this change in the personnel rotation of the russian federation will not fundamentally affect the nature of the combat operations of the russian army, because they are limited in terms of resources, and this personnel rotation was more or less important for the domestic political segment of the russian audience. so we can conclude, but now very interesting, i myself want to see if these massive missile attacks will stop well, it is clear that the ukrainians turn off the lights, but this does not affect the battlefield, and on the other hand , his generals, traditional generals, let’s say so, who trained there in the traditions of the cold war, can

now really offer putin such a traditional a major operation, well, like a mongoose jump again, that what we said, these will also be signs if they start to actively build up again, for example, the entire force in belarus, it will immediately be clear that they went precisely according to the concept of repeating some kind of jump the mongoose is possible with er, larger forces, that is, they will be able to offer putin, for example, let's take 500,000 and try again. of course, it will not be such an operation there to take kyiv for three days, but in any case, we will try to at least cut off the ukrainian troops there from supplies, i.e. somehow carry out an operation on western ukraine. or it is possible to try, er, to really break through the front in donbas. that is, there will be signs if the volume of rockets stops, as they were, er, when every few days,

missiles of various types were fired there that is, it will mean that gerasimo really proposed a new plan, but in any case, it will take at least two months to prepare it, that is, the mobilization is going on, but it should be much more intense now , for example, the information that they canceled even e- there was armor for there were parents with three hmm with three children. that means that putin will again try to take everyone who can, that is, those who can buy themselves off, those will not be taken, or whoever wants to escape, that is, in fact, putin's the regime works very interestingly. those who want to run away, they let them go, and in fact, it allows them to avoid uh, such social social tension, that is, who wants to run away, who wants to hand over to the protest, please leave, who doesn’t hand over to the protest, even if you have three children, uh, come on go fight and die for putin , i.e. they are trying to work quite a-

ah so adaptively to er-e the ability of the deep people to show at least minimal protests protest sentiments, in principle, the elites like that they do not need somehow even respond to some protests in the same regions. by the way, isn't this a sign that the dominant concept of the great patriotic war 2:0 is being formed right now in russia, relatively speaking, everything is for the sake of victory, where life means nothing. and actually then losses on the front line can not be claims to the military leadership because it is for the sake of victory. this concept will now be extended to all components of the life of russian society under the conditions that this partisan component will be suppressed or will be pushed out of itself of the russian federation, this will actually become such a basis for such a concept, russia is a great fortress, there is a war of oats and we are dragging

this war there as much as we can absolutely . the fact is that a very interesting fact is, in fact, so. the election is a little more than a year away, it will be in march of the 24th year, and one year is actually already such an active electoral campaign when it is necessary to build strategies , especially in such a situation that putin and his entourage are now in, so i i think that for them the concept of this conditional patriotic war is one of the best options, that is, to create the illusion that russia is in danger, to instill more fear, to create conditions when someone in every russian family will be fighting, killed or wounded, that is, everyone dealing with this situation is an ideal option for putin when he can maintain his power er keep the elites from any thoughts about coups or er creation

of turbulence i.e. putin will create conditions where there is no turbulence or you will win impossible because there is not much time left before the elections, he will say let's hold the elections and then we will look at the same transfer that he is already talking about with these influential groups well, i don't know a few years, a few years, maybe 10 years, and that's why i think that now they are just right this technology is going to be introduced, which means that putin's authoritarian regime will really strengthen. just a profitable step, but not the other way around, as we said six months ago, for example, that if russia starts mobilizing, it threatens some kind of instability for putin himself now. on the contrary, it seems to me that it will be a great option for him as an electoral campaign when

, against the background of putin's support, it will be necessary to mobilize moreover, in the literal sense, it will be necessary to go to the front in order to prove one's patriotism and support for one's family and for putin , that is, this technology. let's say then this propaganda component where mobilization plays a component factor in the actual strengthening and image of putin at this stage. then the question arises that he is actually with such a front-man of this war and no longer goes into the shadow, but practically a component of the field in that 503,000 must be prepared in person. they say that yesterday there was a briefing where the deputy head of the operational department, general gromov, indicated that now russia is trying to transform its own armed forces to ensure an increase in its number to 1.5 million, which is actually already known data, but

the question arises that later the main directorate of intelligence said that it is necessary to survive the next three, four or five months, where there may be the most aggressive actions on the part of the russian federation, but i just don't like it a bit because to actually prepare a group in three months, that’s 500, it’s very difficult now, as i have a time lag of 5 months. yes, the initiative should actually be on our field and we need to use the time period as effectively as possible to inflict maximum damage on the enemy defeats. what are your assessments of these two months, three months and six months on the front line, what might be the dynamics, obviously here it depends, of course, on the plan of our command, because judging by these statements on the supply of heavy equipment to us, we again have the the deadline there is two three four months when we receive the main mass and er bmp i hope tanks and the like

, that is, our offensive groups will obviously also be ready in er three er four months and precisely in the spring obviously we can to expect such attempts by ukraine and russia to conduct their powerful offensive operations, what to do now, i think that of course it is very easy to fantasize, well, the best thing to say is that this operational pause could be used to conduct our offensive operations, to try to improve our conditions in the east and in the south but again, russia is trying to drag us into such protracted hostilities, fierce hostilities, actually, which have no operational significance, but only tactical ones like bakhmut soledar, they are, of course, in case they are taking away those ukrainian forces because , of course, the russians are also getting exhausted, but they are currently

acting mainly in these directions with the efforts of the wagnerites, and for example, in the area of ​​kliminnaya , paratroopers are concentrated there, including those withdrawn from the kherson bridgehead, so everything here depends on the ukrainian command . there is an opportunity now to conduct such offensive operations that would allow us to either liberate new territories or improve our tactical operational position just in time for the preparation of the next major offensive operations taking into account the new western armored vehicles, this is interesting. i think that it will be clear again, uh, already in the next week, because the next few weeks will be decisive to me, ah, from the point of view of preparation for that spring campaign, but the question is how putin is really trying to form this campaign, because you are absolutely correct in asking the question, if putin has elections in march

, before that, it is necessary to show some successes or somehow turn the defeats and tragedies into the fact that, on the contrary, putin is supported and not reduced in support here as well you just need to sit down and lay it out, it seems to me that the calendar plan is not the right one, when putin will take these 500,000 and even if these thousands will be crushed, how will he present it as a positive for himself, that is, he will call on the deep people and even more to unite and rally around putin around this is the only grant of russian statehood, otherwise, for example , nato will seize russia and destroy russian civilization, that is, there may be such a plan that, well, i think that now putin is asking the question, so let's use this carblanc to prove that he is not

failed that is, we know that this is gerasima. he failed. they blame him because he failed in the shooting of a mongoose in february of march of last year, and now he seems to have a chance, well, show me. maybe you will be able to show your abilities now. but i think that we know exactly what interests that he has no new chances. he is simply forced to do this. there is simply no other way out. others are sitting in this boat and he simply will not be able to escape from it again. well, then it means that if the opponents have a long-term military-political plan that in including putin's election campaign , the question arises that we should somehow take this into account. then the question arises that the statements of our individual officials that the war or the hottest phase there will end in the summer of this year, so this is actually, let's say, excessive expectation. and i i think that probably the rhetoric from the ukrainian side should be that we should prepare the population to prepare reserves precisely in

view of the fact that actually this year will be an important decisive one but not the last from the point of view of the introduction of war with the russian federation it turns out, well, it is obvious that russia will try to drag out the military company in order to prevent failures in any case. they will definitely hold on to donetsk luhansk, this is such a symbol, that is, even if ukraine frees, let's say, the territory until february, i.e. the conditional minsk agreements, for them it will simply be categorically unacceptable to allow ukraine to take, for example, donetsk or luhansk , because it will be a really huge blow to putin's authority, well, that is, you started a war and as a result, we lost everything we had and even well, then why did all this start, and of course crimea, that is, one more blow, for example, on the

crimean bridge, they can really hit a very powerful one according to putin's authority, for him, in fact, this year is very risky for, for example, i do not rule out that he can to cancel these elections altogether, i.e. martial law and there will be no elections, so we can say now that putin is trying to extend this status quo, i.e. without martial law, and still fix it in the elections on february 24 of the next 24th year, i'm sorry, his status is still there for a few years, this is the best option for him. if the ukrainian army can really break through the front and really make powerful advances, well, in the next six months, that will be what he will simply declare about the necessity of a truly patriotic war, the introduction of martial law and the cancellation of any elections, he will then simply give up the idea of ​​even theoretically talking about elections, he will say that after the war, we will

talk there, and this may drag on until the end of his physical life in general putin is why here, in fact, we cannot say that we do not have the opportunity to end this war in the 23rd year , but we must take into account that putin has these plans to drag on as much as possible, to throw as many people into this furnace as possible in order to ensure a comfortable election campaign. and we have something else our task is to destroy this election campaign and lead to the fact that he will be forced to lead martial law, and then i'm sorry, well, for him, for him, in principle, then it won't even matter a-ah what state of affairs at the front he can announce a victory, anything even, and when they withdraw from crimea, he will declare that this is the best result, now we have to pay for it even more, but the state of war is maintained because nato can attack us now and that’s all, and that is, on this to continue to

balance these elites and destroy them little by little, because again, mentioning the sanctions pressure , literally yesterday, the day before yesterday, such new analytical materials came out. only on february 5, and already analysts have calculated that every day russia will lose about 200-280 million e-e dollars every day, which is a lot if in annual terms it will be about 100 billion dollars. expenses, because it is obvious that the defense budget will only increase , mobilization and a-ah and such a transition to military rails, this will be budgetary expenses, this is still a capitalist country, it is for the soviet union, and therefore putin has huge challenges a-ah 23rd year i hope it will be the last for him, but it will be very

difficult, in any case, and mr. mykhailo, the ultimate question is that now rammstein is approaching, which will actually become such a litmus test as to whether we will really have the potential that will allow us to ensure such an important turning point in this war in the current year what are your estimates and forecasts regarding uh this very fact of this meeting and the consequences of this meeting from the point of view of it receiving certain weapons it is very interesting that rammstein will be on the 20th and already there two weeks before on this date, very active political showers of information about possible deliveries and uh, especially regarding uh, tanks, that is, leopards and challengers began. is between the decision

to supply leopards and the decision to enter some other, i would say hybrid-hybrid approaches because, to be honest, i don’t know how ukraine will deal with these, for example , there are 100 challengers and stoliopards well, it's me it seems like a challenge because for the system and logistics and logistical support for the training of specialists and so on, therefore, i hope that the german leadership will still convince that the main tank should be the leopard-2, it is normal to modify it, in any case , we have tables of leopards, the bird of this ramstein will be like the first step for the creation of such a new tank fist of ukraine, in any case, i would like to believe it, mr. mykhailo. thank you, as always, for your professional comments, and i will remind our viewers that the espresso channels are on the air there was mykhailo samus, deputy director of the center for army convolution and disarmament research. and now we are in touch with artem vyunyk

, director of the research and production company athlon avia, which is engaged in the development and production of unmanned systems used in the armed forces of ukraine, mr. artem, i congratulate you just now we talked with our colleague mykhailo sanus about the fact that their own weapons play a decisive role in what the ukrainian army does on the battlefield, and the war itself is now feared on the field by the war itself artillery and reconnaissance, where unmanned systems play a key role , and we are also talking about the fact that russia is trying to wage an offensive war of attrition , where it uses various methods to somehow achieve some success on the battlefield, and when we talk about unmanned systems there from the ukrainian from the russian side, there were such statistics regarding the truth of ukrainian unmanned systems that actually in the first months, even the first week of hostilities, the ukrainian army lost about 90% of these unmanned systems

you and i knew the numbers, but in principle they kept it a secret, although now a british report has come out where these numbers were actually announced, and it also says that the copter actually lives there for a maximum of three flights, and a fixed-wing flying machine there for a maximum of six flights per the battlefield and destroy it what are your statistics what is your practice of interacting with our military regarding the effectiveness of the use of these complexes that your company manufactures given in this analytical report, they are somewhat true, indeed, we are observing a completely different situation than it was before february 24, the use of rockets and other means of physical destruction of our

aircraft, but it must be said that our manufacturers are all ukrainian manufacturers, not only the company znovavia eh is very powerful eh expanded production eh scaled up and provides for today in principle overcome the crisis that was really there in the first month or two after the start of the war because deliveries of eh complexes and individual aircraft this is done in large quantities, of course even this quantity does not fully meet the needs, but again the work on increasing production capacity continues and i hope that in a few months we will reach a fairly serious level of providing our armed forces with an unmanned complex, on the one hand, this we are talking about those complexes that are on the other hand, all companies

are working on improving the development of some other solutions that we are actually dictated by the situation on the battlefield and today it is very nice to see that a large number of new companies have also entered the market with their sometimes quite interesting products. i hope that they will also add as soon as possible to the army of drones that our army needs today . already today there is no doubt in anyone's mind that unmanned aviation plays a very significant role in military operations. and actually, this is facilitated by the very constructive cooperation with all the e-e power agencies that make up the defense forces of ukraine. can you to somehow comment on this situation, which consisted of the supply of copters there or

components across the polish borders. but there was a short period when there was actually a significant number of accusations from volunteer organizations there from various structures that it is possible to deliver copters or receive contacting has become extremely difficult compared to previous periods, has the situation changed now? how does it look today? the situation is really not very pleasant to this day , because the strengthening of control in the european union and in in poland, in particular, it leads to the fact that an ordinary customs official who clears the cargo at the customs point or at the checkpoint examines the documents, he, let's say, is reinsured several times and because of this we have problems with supply those component parts that, for example, until october,

drove through the territory of the republic of poland completely calmly without any obstacles including fingantsov, because we cannot deliver the complexes according to the schedule, we cannot ensure the fulfillment of the terms of state contracts, we will receive fines from the customer, well, in fact, this problem still persists, but in principle, we have already overcome a large part of these problems, and i hope that in the near future, how will we learn to live with the new rules and the new demands of the polish side? after all, we have no other way out , we have to adapt. but again, it is very unfortunate that, for example, today we...

uh, they can't supply components for purely civilian purposes, because uh, for some reason, polish customs consider them, uh, to be produced for dual purpose and require obtaining a license, which is sometimes not received for a month or more, but we are still working on it. i think that the situation will improve in the near future you speak diplomatically enough, although the problem is quite significant, and is it possible to understand at all how these actions on the part of polish customs are strengthened, was there any precedent ? the president of poland was visiting, there were confirmations, as always, of close interaction, we hope to receive leopard tanks from poland there. and when it comes to other components, we see that there is some kind of bureaucratic friction, what is the crux of this

problem, as far as i know, there are two components first, there are certain legal acts that were adopted in poland about a year ago, which uh, have uh, formed other requirements, slightly stricter requirements regarding the transit of the territory of the republic of poland of dual-use products. but how and here and in poland after the law, there was a certain inertness, and er, it actually is, er, well, you can say that it was not applied. but after certain events, as far as i know, the issues are not related to the republic of poland. i think you you know this situation that through the european union, dual-purpose products were sent to iran, which were later discovered as part of the same