the current situation after the meeting in davos and what, in your opinion, public and non-public decisions could have been made henry kissinger is a famous geopolitician who, although he is 99 years old, but has changed his position in particular he explained that after the victory, ukraine can join nato, first of all regarding the meeting in rammstein i think that enormous pressure will be exerted on germany regarding the approval of the transfer by poland of leopard tanks that it bought in germany, as well as regarding the transfer of some german tanks to ukraine by germany itself in davos, everyone said that with information is leaking from washington that there will be great pressure from the usa, and we know that great britain has already deprived chancellor schultz of one of his arguments that stood in the way of the transfer of leopards to ukraine, namely that germany did not want to be the first to promise to do so. great britain has already promised

to transfer ukraine part of its challenges. i think that the main result of the meeting in rammstein will be that germany will give in to pressure and agree to transfer to ukraine the leopards you need. yes, it is late, but thank god it's not too late in ukraine you need to be ready either for your own offensive which i hope will happen soon or for any russian offensive in the spring about which there are rumors, as for the statement of henry kizir, it is amazing when i first read it, i thought that it must be a mistake or maybe some kind of joke because kissinger completely changed his position. we all know that he spoke about ukraine a few months ago, that ukraine should come to terms with the loss of donbas and crimea, this is his typical view, so he is really a politician who believes in brute force and i think that he realized that he had miscalculated in terms of whose brute force was

on the side of ukraine and its friends, partners and future allies in nato . year and if georgia received an action plan regarding membership, then no invasion of russia in georgia in 2008, in ukraine in 2014 and 22. it would never happen and the last ones about kissinger. i always feared that he would never change his position because what he made a fortune thanks to his consulting company kissinger and partners , advising investors specifically on russian issues and helping to attract large investments related to russia, so i think that what we see now is influenced by either his respectable age or the amazing successes of ukraine on the battlefield, as well as the determination demonstrated by your society, i think he

understood that now ukraine is a real power, diplomatic models will work after our victory, and here we are entering an extremely difficult situation, in particular, it is about supplying us with heavy armored vehicles, we have heard a lot of different plans of promises, so far we have seen the extremely effective position of poland and the extremely effective position of great britain and the united states. great britain promises to provide us with challenger-2 heavy tanks, although in small quantities so far. the united states has agreed to supply us with bradley infantry fighting vehicles and accordingly, olafshol is the one who keeps his finger on the extremely important casey , because the main european tank is the leopard-2, which i already partially touched on at the beginning

this issue, saying that schultz is under enormous pressure from the rest of nato, his defense minister and all of germany in rammstein felt what the chancellor felt in davos. i think that this pressure will be enough. i believe that germany will agree to the transfer of leopard tanks and other weapons to ukraine. yesterday i was really amazed when i watched the news from the world economic forum in davos and heard statements about the constant support of ukraine by european leaders, from whom i did not expect it, the belgian prime minister for example, after all, all the belgian news says that we will be with ukraine until the end, the spanish prime minister said the same thing two days ago in washington, the prime minister of the netherlands, mark rutte, had a meeting with president biden a few days ago and also spoke at the atlantic council where i was once senior researcher and when he was asked whether you think that the time may come

when the west and europe will not want to supply weapons to ukraine and we will get tired of ukraine, he said that this will not happen, that we must continue and we will continue because if we don't stop putin now his hand will reach us i think olafsholt also understands this but he finds it difficult to maintain political balance within german politics so he is trying to find a way to move forward and now the moment is coming when he has to tell his coalition partners that we are no longer we cannot withstand the pressure, we must do the right thing, the green party and its minister of foreign affairs are already advocating the provision of more weapons to ukraine, and i think that in the minds of germany big changes have taken place because at the beginning of the war they said that we feel guilty before the russians for some deaths caused by the nazi regime. now, as far as i'm concerned, the debate has

changed and the germans realize that if you compare ukrainians and russians, ukrainians suffered the most per capita suffering caused by the nazis during the second world war and not the russians, therefore scholz will not be able to resist more and we will see the leopards who will arrive in ukraine shortly after the meeting in rammstein, an extremely important meeting took place between the main the leading generals, the commander of the luzhnyi and marco mili, who heads the joint committee of american staffs, the meeting took place in poland, we know very little about the specifics of this meeting, but whatever you think it could mean. were careful about the signals, wanting to make it clear that putin should not claim that

nato is somehow russia's adversary in this war, partly due to fears that putin might escalate conflict and use nuclear weapons, and partly because if it looks like nato is really at war with russia, then putin will have more reason to claim that he had no choice but to invade ukraine, which i'm sure we'll talk about now. so then, at the beginning of the war such a meeting between the military leaders of the usa, poland and ukraine was truly politically unthinkable, it is happening now and demonstrates that, in particular, the military leadership of these two large nato countries and ukraine is coordinating their actions operationally and in in terms of intelligence sharing, and now in terms of more and more deadly weapons such as

himers, which have been provided to the usa as patriot leopard systems, which i hope are already on the horizon. so this is a very important meeting and it sends a wide range of political signals, the biggest of which is that putin, you have decided fighting with nato is what you did and what is happening now, we in nato are not going to declare war, but we are going to make you suffer and guarantee that your military will not defeat the ukrainians, that is, as far as i i understand that the united states has already ceased to be afraid of a so-called nuclear war, we understand that in any incomprehensible situation, putin, either personally or with the help of medvedev or patrushev or some of his representatives, began to voice the scenarios of the so-called nuclear armageddon, hinting that it could happen and, accordingly, something must have happened or in the mind of the united states or in the

united states in washington learned some extremely important points because there is a feeling that america is already ready to cross the so-called russian red lines because russia crossed any red lines and established both by the geneva conventions and by christianity and just by common sense , washington repeatedly crossed many of the red lines announced by putin, amen, this was also the case with hummers, now the patriot system was also other anti-ship missiles provided by great britain, denmark, turkey gave deadly drones without giving up the opportunity to be an intermediary, all these red lines were violated under putin's nose, despite his nuclear threats, what if nato will be drawn into the conflict, the war will be transferred to the nuclear level, this did not happen and will not happen. because putin, in my opinion, received very clear signals from these calls

from washington and from the head of this movement of white burns, for whom i worked for many years in the state department ambassador burns , the former ambassador to moscow, as i understand it, made it very clear that if putin moves to nuclear escalation by symbolically detonating at least one warhead on the battlefield, there will be an intense human response from the united states that will destroy the russian military on the territory of ukraine, and therefore i think that the response of washington, china, india and all nato allies made putin understand that there is no sense in nuclear escalation, because it will only accelerate the complete defeat of the russian military on the battlefield in ukraine, what will happen in the future, who knows. i mean that putin loves to say that if the russian ship sinks , it can drag the whole world with it, but

this is completely irrational, and president putin is not irrational, he very carefully lists all his steps, he tries to cause ukraine and europe more pain than those are ready to endure, but he will never succeed because ukraine will never surrender and he will never have a reason to use nuclear weapons because russian territory will never be under threat. we understand that this is a completely logical and normal formula and it is generally accepted by probably the entire western civilization, but there is one extremely important point: russia does not recognize not only the peace formulas, but russia is not ready

so to speak, to conduct one or another completely understandable negotiations, in particular, it is about the withdrawal of its occupation contingents, as we have repeatedly said, military strategies agree with us, war is the same policy, only by other means of war, they end with a certain political result or continue, that is, military force is used for the achievement of political goals so far putin did not fall for his rhetoric, but what are the demands of russia, because they were unrealistic from the very beginning, he just wanted to attack ukraine do you remember that among the initial demands was that nato essentially revoke the entry of the eastern european members who joined after the cold war and withdraw their troops . putin knew that the usa would never agree to this, so he used such a political position to justify his military actions which then were aimed at

achieving political goals, namely the liquidation of the sovereignty and independence of ukraine , negotiations took place in march with the mediation of turkey, a compromise supported by ukraine was already on the table, which consisted in the fact that russia withdraws its troops from the occupied territory after february 24. ukraine remains neutral and does not join nato , and only in the future will the question of the political and legal status of crimea and donbas be raised. putin rejected this formula because he wanted to use military force to achieve greater success on the battlefield to strengthen his political position in the negotiations and he lost thanks to ukraine's amazing counteroffensive in kharkiv and then in the south in kherson in september, now ukraine is winning and it is clearly impossible a military victory for russia therefore

now ukraine's demands are more aggressive and they all make sense for ukraine but for putin they are still politically unacceptable and if russia accepts ukraine's demands for negotiations it will mean that it admits its complete defeat so he will never go for it until he is completely defeated on the field putin is not ready for real negotiations because he still hopes that if hundreds of thousands of new hapless conscripts are thrown into the furnace of war after the next phase of mobilization, europe and the united states will sooner or later tire of supporting ukraine and then, in his opinion, the russian military will start to win again. and then it will be possible to conduct negotiations about his political goals from favorable positions for him, so only when, god willing, this will happen, but it will not happen, or when it will reach putin that he has lost militarily only then will he go to serious negotiations, and i think that this

day is near, dear mr. ambassador china in davos, the wife of president zelensky, olena zelenska, conveyed a message to xi jinping, in particular, it is about activating the chinese people's republics, so beijing, as far as we understand , is not eager to support the russian federation, but the question is to what extent it will be ready, so to speak, to limit the various aid, how china wants to play, it is difficult to say from the point of view of the harsh reality of the political perspective, china is satisfied that the war will continue for some time. it is rhetorical supports russia, accusing the united states of expanding nato and justifying russian invasions of ukraine . i think that the chinese leadership does not like that ukraine is suffering so much that russian troops are committing war crimes and we know for sure that what worries him the most is

that putin can really resort to using nuclear weapons, this is unacceptable for the settlement and for china, but until putin has crossed this threshold, i think that xi jinping has already calculated that the continuation of the war is beneficial to china because and the usa and europe are now occupied with ukraine what affects their economies but as we saw in the example of the policy of zero covid all the house that can turn its course 180° when something dramatic happens for example, nationwide protests against him and against his policy of code zero, so the more ukraine succeeds on the battlefield and the stronger the unity of the transatlantic community and its allies in australia and japan remains, the more likely china will begin to withdraw its support for russia and express a desire to switch to running who will win due to the realignment

of geopolitical power and russia can no longer be considered a great power china will want to take advantage of new economic opportunities which will appear as a result of this. so, everything depends on the victory of ukraine on the battlefield . this is the direction that events are moving now. well, mr. ambassador, if we are talking about china , we cannot ignore one more extremely important player. we are talking about turkey. we are talking about president rdogan. so-called constructiveness in communication with the kremlin, and he is perhaps not the only one who succeeds in this. what will be the real non-declarative policy of turkey regarding the russian-ukrainian war in nato, we talk about turkey as a bridge between east and west, and this is exactly the role of turkey in relation to russia and ukraine, this ability to be a bridge between east and west is one of the factors that makes turkey so

important geostrategically for the transatlantic community cardigan, its politics much more transactional and not collective from the point of view of security. his approach to nato is this: they support nato and therefore support nato friends, receiving something in return, a transactional way. that is, it resembles the foreign policy of donald trump, although on unlike trump, erdoğan really appreciates nato and appreciates its strategic importance for turkey, the quality of turkey's strategic importance for nato, and for those of us who were brought up in nato during the cold war, our opinion has always been based on the idea of ​​one for all and all for one, we are a community of values . we protect democratic and economic freedoms and we must be on the side

of what is morally right, erdoğan agrees with this and still emphasizes his difficult situation as a neighbor, they say , look at our borders, here is the iraq series the south caucasus and across the black sea also russia and ukraine, therefore our approach is somewhat different , the turks have been at war with russia like no other since the ottoman empire, we have so many economic relationships we want to be a valuable mediator because we are against war, this position is very similar on the german side, and as we said earlier, there was a lot of pressure on germany to change its course and fully support ukraine, however, in the case of turkey, we heard how president zelensky himself welcomed the mediation of president erdogan, in particular, in the conclusion of the grain agreement when putin was also grateful. i think that the

moment will come, although not now, when russia will finally be ready for real negotiations and all of nato will welcome the ability of erdogan or any other turkish leader at that moment to be a mediator and therefore to open a dialogue both with ukraine and with russia, i think that it is also very good for the alliance that the nato member countries play such an important role, and because of this, putin's viche is going over the top, so putin is trying to drive a wedge between turkey and the rest of nato and bring it closer to russia, but he does not succeed because turkey was critically important military aid to ukraine throughout the war in the form of drones , the mayor also rhetorically supported ukraine and was steadfast in his consistent condemnation of russia's invasion of ukraine and the violation of ukraine's territorial integrity. he constantly condemns the

occupation and annexation of crimea and calls on ukraine to become a member of nato. not to mention closing the turkish straits for russian warships that are not based in the black sea of ​​course it would be better if turkey under the leadership of murdogan fully supported all sanctions against russia, but i must say that they appreciate the net benefit of supporting turkey, which is obvious. turkey is definitely in the camp of ukraine, but i also see value in maintaining a line of communication with russia, if it hurts . works, to put it mildly, regarding assessments of what is happening in putin's head, i am not a psychiatrist, i cannot diagnose his next steps , but we see that he is trying to stick to his old

stalin's line, but it's a question of how far and how long he will actually go in this direction. i'm also not a psychiatrist. i think that putin's goals regarding this terrible invasion and aggressive war have changed now. his main goal is probably to survive physical and political. these are two sides of the same coin and all that. thanks to the amazing courage and efficiency of the ukrainian military and the national determination of the entire population of ukraine, putin received terrible advice from his special services at the beginning of the war, he thought that he could win after seizing kiev for a quick victory, the government instead suffered a complete failure and now it is stuck in this war of attrition which it is unable to win. and if it cannot win it, then the end is near. many analysts in washington

have begun to say and write that they consider the possibility that the entire russian the federation will fall apart but the debate in washington has changed dramatically for the better they said something like oh we will not provoke putin to escalate this war and he can use nuclear weapons and then even attack nato territory and now russia will collapse as a result of this failed war, so i think that putin's goal in this war is to survive. for this, he hopes that if he throws enough russian soldiers into battle and even if tens and hundreds of thousands die, it will not matter because in the end as a result, many ukrainians will die, the economy will suffer, the civilian population will not be able to take it anymore and ukraine will finally capitulate. putin

believes that he will find a way to declare victory, but this will not happen thanks to the military victory of ukraine and solidarity her friends and allies, we will see that putin will have to adjust his goals and i miss that in the end he will say something like okay, we really won, we showed the west that we are not going to just stand by and let them take ukraine from us, we destroyed the nazis, whoever putin he did not consider them to be in ukraine, we rubbed the west of the nose and held some territory about whatever small piece of ukraine he spoke of, passing it off as a victory, and then he will go further if you live and think about how to return to ukraine and another way in in the future, but he will not succeed because russia will be incredibly weak at the end of its fiasco in this war. and in the united states, and in particular, in the headquarters of nato,

they understand what is happening in reality on the territory of russia, in particular, it is about the formation of their military groups, and what is happening in the kremlin plus -minus they have accurate information, i do not have access to secret information that i had before, but judging by the recordings of conversations of russian soldiers on the battlefield when they call their families or talk to their comrades, i i believe that the nato headquarters and washington have a deep understanding of the terrible morale of the russian military and the fact that even the wagnerites complain that they are being used as cannon fodder or that if they take a step back, they will get a bullet in the back . as in stalin's time, everyone knows this we constantly hear about it in the media, and based on my previous experience working for the government, there is no doubt that the us and its nato allies

know much more about what is happening in the russian army, what is happening inside the kremlin is much more difficult to understand because it is not easy to intercept the relevant messages, it is not easy to penetrate the inner circles at the highest levels of any government, and even more so the russian one through espionage through agents who can visit and transmit information, but it is definitely easy to understand the pressure putin is under now, i myself hear from my own environment that now even on levels of ministers in russia not to mention the oligarchs there is deep resentment against putin putin you have ruined our lives we will never be able to live like this we have lived before you are destroying the reputation in russia, i constantly hear about this state of affairs from various people, i even put it off because i think that

there is a deep awareness of how serious the problem is that putin found himself in. that is why i took such a tough position in this interview, which i already said in response to your previous question. i think that putin's goals have changed and now he just wants to survive. unfortunately, i have to end our conversation with another one. matthew bryza, ex-adviser of the secretary of state of the united states, former director of european and eurasian affairs at the us national security council, worked on the espresso tv channel. thank you very much . andriy piontkovskyi, a political scientist in washington, will continue our analysis. glory to ukraine. andriy andreyovich, i congratulate you on the espresso tv channel. good

evening to the heroes. well, we see that the final synchronization of the civilized world, which is going to give extremely specific answers to the russian aggression against ukraine, in particular, we are talking about the supply of weapons, in particular, we are talking about the huge financial davos forum, so how do you see the current unfolding of situations, people are difficult forum, it is a traditional economic forum . the whole year we observe this struggle of two concepts in the west, one concept of the administration, the concept of the victory of ukraine, and so on nasyavyye not defeat in practice, this is po

pustitelskoe hitler's putin's company, the genocide of the ukrainian people, the destruction of his cities, citizens, who is it? when the war ends, we know that there is a victory in ukraine of the second election. so on, this is the consensual police, eh, you know, in moscow, they listen to him, they paid attention to the rhetoric of the last days, the moscow people, our figure, eh, they already practically recognize this situation, the account of a nuclear state is frightening, we cannot play, we will

take the whole world with us, eh i choose everything to the cemetery and so you continue, it means that they heard the signal, but did not understand that the impel is standing in the near future. well, i still pointed out even all nuclear threats, this is absolutely empty blackmail, if kissinger announced that ukraine after victory has every chance and is the need for its entry into nato, well, this means that the situation has really changed radically, there is already a clear geopolitical determination, and the follower of the conception shock