we were lucky that it exploded in this direction. alexander and his sons adapted to life under constant shelling. now we are used to it. at first, we couldn't sleep at night. it was very scary. the house was shaking. the floor literally shook like jelly. the war divided this family into three parts, wife. oleksandra fled to russia with her grandson. angelina wants to go west to her pro-ukrainian brother, and oleksandr together with his two sons decided not to go anywhere. i believe that ukraine if you want to call it that, it is alone the country with russia and belarus is one people like a tree with different branches but with one root angelina is a painful question i think that

she herself doesn't really want to see us and no one from here didn't kick her out of her own free will because she didn't share our way of life she wanted to freedom in the worst sense of the word, this is an 80s mold inside session, ukrainian soldiers are strengthening their positions inside the city, more trenches if you want to live, you will dig, the deeper you hide, the more chances you have to survive, these are fresh trenches we finish them, we make loopholes. we have good firing positions in case the russians approach from this side

. fighting continues in the eastern part of the city. ukraine. they seem to climb and climb, they really are like those orcs, the situation is difficult , they climb like cockroaches, we neutralize them and they climb again and again we have a lot of losses, a lot of wounded fighters, the ukrainian side no discloses the exact number of casualties, but

convoys with wounded soldiers are constantly going through bakhmut to military hospitals. 250 vitamins a while ago, 5 ambulances arrived in less than an hour. no, i thought maybe she would go yes yes yes that's it and look here

i'm doing it myself mina flew in she tore my leg that's all that can be added how am i feeling i'm fine my leg hurts and everything's fine that's all it was fine, everything was fine, and then the shelling began. it became more intense, and everyone hid. in the trenches, i felt a very sharp pain, and i realized that it was a fragment. i started moving my fingers. i heard a crunch and realized what kind of child the bone was inside in the bachmut, now there are extremely heavy battles, this is real hell . next moving the next morning, angelina and maxim are ready to leave the city, we met

them in the basement where they had already packed things, we can go. i am glad that i am leaving the war zone, but i am sad to leave my hometown. i hope that when i return here volunteers pick up those who want to evacuate from the front-line cities and take them by minibus to where it is safe today angelina and maxim are the only ones leaving sometimes we take two people sometimes 15 depending on the day the lack of communication is a real problem so we just show up here with some regularity to picking up people who managed to contact us is very difficult, i really don't want to go, but there is no work here, there is no

money, we are constantly cold, hungry, i want to live , not survive, the next stop is the city of dnipro , 260 kilometers to the west, there is anglina and maxim will be forced to start a new life in the expectation that panda peace will return to bakhmut , and this is the tenth from the city burning universities that have been hit by another rocket . welcome to the espresso channel today. germany with the participation of 50 countries that are providing aid to ukraine to win over the russian federation about whether we will have qualitatively new opportunities on the battlefield, what are the prospects for

receiving this aid and how in general the confrontation behind the enemy will look like in the next two or three months, which in the west are determined as decisive about this, and we will talk about it in our war program with our military experts. my name is serhiy zgurets and i am the director of the information consulting company defekt express, which , together with the espresso company, works to highlight the most current topics and problems in the field of security and defense, and now the first to join us is oleksiy ezhik, an expert of the national institute of strategic studies. i congratulate you, i have to start the conversation with actual events, just a few minutes ago, it ended like this, with the opening remarks of the us secretary of defense lloyd austin and the president of ukraine about the fact that it is necessary to speed up and provide maximum assistance to ukraine and that the time is actually the trump which should be in the hands of our partners in order to

provide as quickly as possible the assistance to ukraine that our armed forces need, and it is already known about a number of these packages that were announced there by the united states and other countries in particular it also talks about air defense , it even mentions even planes and tanks, can we actually say now that we have already approached the rubicon or actually crossed the rubicon beyond which the supply of weapons will become really massive and what can we really say already about what the situation is changes with the pace of the delivery of military aid primarily from european countries. how do you assess the current stage of ukraine's cooperation with western countries? i don't think that the pace changes when we needed it. they managed to close a certain certain direction there

. i think that the issue is not in the pace, but in the composition of the pace as well, but i don’t think that anything will radically change here, as they can and they deliver, but what will change and what will radically happen is as he called it not the rubicon, but hmm, the opening of a certain new option. and here is a new option, it has opened. we have seen the opening of an option for really modern, powerful , modern, powerful air defense systems with anti-missile defense capabilities, and now we see an option for the weapons of the ground forces. heavy armored vehicles. this option has opened up. actually, we at rammstein will see from the results how open everything is, and if it is open enough, i think there will be enough opening, this means the general judgment of such an international policy towards russia, and the general

judgment is that this war must as soon as possible, they already ended this with the victory of ukraine, regardless of the considerations that were relevant in the spring. no matter how there was an escalation, if there was no nuclear war, if there was simply no time for something else judging by the fact that the international consensus is so simple, it must be finished and finished with the victory of ukraine , the world will deal with what will happen to russia after this defeat on the battlefield, well, if we are talking about quantitative indicators and pace, we hope that in principle, they will meet our needs, is it possible to actually say according to the indicators that there are armored vehicles , combat vehicles, infantry, artillery, what exactly are these numbers that were previously announced by zuluzhny, in fact, based on the results of rammstein, they will be there are 70-80 percent satisfied. and in fact, in the

space of months to 1:2, we can say that we will be ready for those offensive operations that zaluzhnyi mentioned in his interview, and these are absolutely accurate , so it looks like implementation well, it came there a couple of months ago when there was an article of yours, uh, this ball is bouncing. i don't remember anymore, but the parameters that are laid out there are as follows. it seems that everything is carried out here, you can talk about the balance. well, let's say there were three other than those 250 machines it seems that there are t-72s that ukraine has already received before. well, it is possible that this balance will be, but we do not know what exactly the balance of the leopard abram will be - this is a challenge, even now the leclercs have appeared in these conversations, at least symbolic, we do not know what will be the balance, but

the fact that there will be 300 tanks it's obvious, er, 700 , er, 700 armored vehicles, and i'm just with what is already there. well, it's possible, it's also possible that the plans have changed a little. maybe these two months there were discussions about how relevant these are the plans that were announced there three rates of 700 e barrels if not i'm wrong, 500 or vice versa, 500 armored vehicles. well, this is all now being carried out according to current calculations, which balance, which pace? i think the pace is that if the leopard option is unpacked, it can be fast, because the logistics for servicing these tanks are their location is relevant, it is close to ukraine, so it can happen quickly here, and the previous experience of using western

heavy artillery and self-propelled equipment, and for three sevens, this experience indicates that this equipment is even easier to operate than the one to which our military is accustomed, which is inherited from the soviet union and its own production, that is why i think about the armored vehicles and artillery and in general the armament of the ground forces , the heavy armament of the ground forces. designed for leopards, if all this is unpacked, i think so, it can really be about the fact that in a few months there will be full readiness for a great mood, and for a more or less effective offensive even earlier, but no we will predict, but it looks like this panos , whose understanding is what is happening with

germany, this is a question you have probably also been asked more than once about the position of shorta's proposal, or before the supply of tanks, then i have to. there were optimistic expectations, but an agreement was never reached, why exactly is there a delay with german tanks , or even a permit for the supply of german tanks, because germany actually took a significant step there, putting complexes there the patriots were supplied by the arist supplied a significant number of these 2000 panther howitzers, that is, in fact, the step of mardara would have put it, that is, the steps from germany are very powerful , and the situation with the leopards, for some reason, is so close to the rubicon that we talked about at the beginning in our program and i really need to understand germany's politics much more deeply. and

in general, germany's policy in the field of security is one of the high spheres of security. the protocols of the congress and everything is clear, but here it is very difficult. as far as i understand , germany does not object to the supply of leopards from other countries. well, she agrees. i understand that, but in the end, these are the fuses that are in germany. it seems to me that there are at least three of them here er, there are such aspects that you can pay attention to. well, first of all, germany may still have this ideological attitude that german tanks do not have, should not fight against russia, maybe it still remains a little, they have not completely decided this question is that the leopard

will fight after the tigers and panthers at these latitudes and at these in this territory. maybe i do not rule out that well, because if there is an obstacle, well, i probably have something like that, there is something else around it, i think. another question that actually concerns german inequalities they, er, try to deliver only what they can reliably guarantee, like a mercedes or a bmw, it must be in perfect condition and perfectly serviced to tanks in general to weapons germany germany generally neglected these issues during there 10 years or maybe even 20 years, this is all known and in general they did not plan to further develop the leopards, they already planned to create a completely new tank together with france, and the leopards are like that, well, it’s so simple that it would be, that

’s why i don’t rule them out, they just don’t they are ready to give leopards because they simply do not have them in such a condition that they can give and not harm their own image that water but it does not shoot, they cannot. they have to give something that will ensure victory and will be effective even from a marketing point of view i think this is the second aspect, and the third aspect is that, well, look, germany and the european union help us financially, and the main military aid comes through american money or directly american weapons or a certain chain, the americans supply poland, poland supplies hungary, hungary supplies us, well such chains are launched for the supply of weapons, well, in general, there is a certain hierarchy, how does this system work, where does the

initial money come from, i think that when it comes to the leopard, it is still decided there is a certain important issue of cooperation between the united states and germany, as well as gas. they have a problem of cooperation, they also have a certain problem of cooperation in the supply of weapons, if the united states wants germany to supply something. and the issue of this money must be resolved. and i think this constant german thesis is related to this, they are already being catalyzed, they are being catalyzed . at first, the british said that the challenger would be delivered. and they said that the challenger is not for ukraine to win there. mainly in order for germany to dare because this is the main such and such a reserve, eh, then the french said that they

are ready to supply lerks, but only so that germany will supply them . i don't understand what this is. so why did germany fall for the abrams in such a way that it is necessary for the abrams to install it and then it will personally supply the leopard, i think here it is necessary to search for how the defense industry works in general and about the financing of defense of the complex in this complex relationship between the united states and germany, well, i see that you also do not have a clear understanding of what is happening in germany, and then we will consider the position of the poles, then poland says that we are, in principle, ready to send e-e leopards to ukraine regardless of the position of germany - does this destroy some rules of the game or can there be some kind of option that will still allow the formation of this leopard coalition for

the supply of these tanks in ukraine or will this not change the situation well, it may change a certain the catalyst, we remember how poland said that it was necessary to supply german patriots to ukraine, no, no, and then such a one, that's why i think it's all playing . when poland joined nato, a hundred were donated there. maybe they bought it there, but the first version of the a5 was donated there, and now the time has come for poland to start modernizing it. these are the first a5s for the new version, and of course they are not doing it themselves, krause mafias too probably started its conveyors and they are gradually modernizing polish tanks to the new polish version. and here, too, when poland declares that

it will supply these tanks to ukraine, this means a certain change of plans. poland planned to modernize these tanks for itself, and the t-72 is solid. they gave a clone to ukraine, but here it turns out that germany is still not ready for leopards, two is still not ready and poland is our closest partner . i understand their position that way, they are simply catalyzed by the questions they speak. we are ready, even what we planned for ourselves supply in ukraine, but it must be understood that it was a gift from germany once upon a time, and perhaps there are certain mutual obligations between poland and germany regarding these leopards , which are now in poland, so i think they should be considered as catalysts, and i think it will still work just as well as a catalyst with the patriots, which also started in poland, poland was the first to declare about it , and it seems like a couple of months have passed since they added the question, we are now

designed, first of all, on tanks, but there are other components that are literally just right in front of rammstein there will be such an interesting publication in the new york times, where he spoke about the fact that the representatives of the united states and ukraine are actually discussing what means can be used or transferred to ukraine in order to destroy military facilities in the temporarily occupied crimea, and this is presented as the option is that this is a change in the policy of the united states, but when we look at this next package, the segment of long-range vehicles itself, the impression is still limited to shells for heimers, all these publications in politics are related to long -range vehicles systems, they are not unconfirmed. could it be that these official announcements are buried or is it actually not possible for the american side to withstand and or provide long-range systems for transmission in ukraine at

a distance of 80 km? what do you think about this ? i think there is more politics here. than the capabilities of missiles, at least attacks, well , they have enough other systems, too . i think the question is that this option is also unpacked, but it is solved a little differently. i think now the united states and our partners focused on giving ourselves the opportunity, well, in the end, in the end, we had a tool that reached russian airfields, we don't know what it is, but it is possible, it is indirect supplies of the united states. and what was done directly on the main building we we don't know, in the end, we know what it is specifically. i think this option will continue. the second option is what will continue. well, at least

the long-range long-range missiles are being studied. in the united states and in and in britain, they are talking about the fact that it is possible to use the missile system and our aviation bombs . long-range missiles, but this option, i feel, depends on whether ballistic soviet missiles will appear in russia, as long as they are ballistic missiles . that's it maybe there is a game, they don’t supply us with such missile systems directly, well, it’s more than tactical, operational-tactical, they don’t even supply iran yet, russia still doesn’t have paradise ballistic missiles, new ballistic

missiles, maybe it’s deterrence, but they give us palliative solutions that allow us to solve this , but exactly in this, i think i am connecting exactly with this until there are no iranian ballistic missiles, until we do not actually have them. yes, everyone, but this is not, well, such a super-super problem in view of the other options. that is, we believe that quantitatively with the means that have been handed over to us, which will be handed over to us in the greatest prospects, in fact, we can carry out the offensive operations that we have planned. and oonkevich, this option is related to long-range systems. authors, what is the question, how will the reaction of the russian federation to this package be now, because actually they were afraid of this ramstein, but piskova appeared there yesterday, medvedeva again mentioned that there measures and ukraine are developing a new

offensive plan and we will be there again if things go badly we will use tactical nuclear weapons there again if we are talking about medvedev's statement and the sand in principle is very close to this or is this argument again of such an emotional impact on european partners now russia will get to his box there and will wave these nuclear arguments again. i think there is a possibility that they will try, well, they will try at medvedev's levels, at medvedev's levels , it won't work. i think after for example, i say a few weeks or a month, er, schultz called putin and after that he said that the option of nuclear war is decreasing, as i think nothing has changed, and after the er, as the institute for the study of war, they made a big publication about that what is the nuclear option? well, it has been minimized and

russia is ready to lose without the use of weapons, although the bear says something else, but after all , it is medvedeva, the source is not even as authoritative as zhirinovsky, so i think hmm, they will try, but it will not be effective, they will use rammstein if it is really shown that the weapons of victory are provided. i think they will use it for ideological justification, well, such medical measures, but i have long been an option, now i think it will not work. it may sound, but it will not work. and then the question arises. both are on the field, because we understand that if this package of military aid, which is now announced, will arrive on time , we can say that we will use these two months to build up our e-e reserves. and everything there is propaganda

of the russian federation says that russia is about to advance there, or we can actually say that at the current stage, over the next month, russia has the opportunity to conduct such large-scale offensive operations, which, well , now they are ideologically trying to fit into the novel of russian approaches. well it seems to me that the main thing is what the russian military establishment will do, they will say, you see, we warned that it is necessary to create these large structures, the fronts of the regimental divisions it is necessary to carry out a reform and they will convince putin and receive and receive money for this to create, return everything to the way it was, the lessons of the cold war, at least start this large-scale process, mobilization of the creation of large structures, large-scale training

of the military. there is another attack on ukraine, as they say, but i think if they see that, well, there will be attempts. it also seems to me to stop these flows of weapons and influence ukraine in such a way as to slow down this process. i think there will be terrorist attacks here there will be more various informational measures, there will be a new attempt to activate e-e in the agency that still exists in ukraine, but we will experience such informational turbulence and possibly quasi-political and attempts by certain terrorist methods to stop or slow down the provision of weapons to us, but what will do with gerasim, i think he will do, but in addition to scattering

leaflets, er, in shells, he will prepare the sticks of the division fronts, the first ukrainian, the second ukrainian, to receive money for this, well , that is, in fact, there is no new one there, er doctors, we welcome you, the hybrid use will not be a simple scaling , conditionally speaking, doctor zhukov there or the wagner doctrine with a bet simply on increasing the number of the russian army, which is the only possible option at the current stage in the military relationship, yes what changes the situation, but i think political thermolent is part of a hybrid war. we too we will feel it. even now, we sometimes feel it, and i think it will happen too, but i don’t think it’s gerasimov’s genius, but after all, the special service is working in russia and they are trying to do something, so i think there will be attempts to use all the tools, of course, informational agents, terrorist. well, it will be against the background of this