russian troops are committing war crimes and we know for sure that what worries him the most is that putin can really resort to using nuclear weapons, this is unacceptable for china and for china, but until putin has crossed this threshold, i think that china has already calculated that the continuation of the war is beneficial to china because and the usa and europe are now busy with ukraine, which affects their economies, but as we saw with the example of the zero covid policy, all the shadow can turn its course by 180° when something dramatic happens, for example nationwide protests against him and against his code zero policy, the more ukraine succeeds on the battlefield and the stronger the unity of the transatlantic community and its allies in australia and japan remains, the more likely china will begin to withdraw its support for russia and express a desire to switch to running who

will win due to the realignment of geopolitical power and russia can no longer be considered a great power, china will want to take advantage of the new economic opportunities that will appear due to this reason, everything depends on the victory of ukraine on the battlefield, this is the direction in which events are moving now, mr. ambassadors, if we are talking about china, we can not ignore one more extremely important player, we are talking about turkey , we are talking about president erdoğan, president erdoğan is trying to adhere to the so-called constructiveness in communication with the kremlin, and perhaps he is not the only one who succeeds in this. what will be the real non-declarative policy of turkey regarding the russian-ukrainian war? we in nato talk about turkey as a bridge between east and west, and this is exactly the role of turkey in relation to russia and ukraine, this ability to be a bridge between east and west

is one of the factors that makes turkey so important geostrategically for the trans-atlantic community, erdogan, his policy is much more transactional than collective with from the point of view of security his approach to nato is that they support nato and therefore support nato friends receiving something in return in a transactional way. that is, it resembles the foreign policy of donald trump and the candidates, although unlike trump erdogan really appreciates nato and appreciates its strategic importance for turkey quality strategic importance of turkey for nato and for those of us who were brought up in nato during the cold war our thinking has always been based around the idea of ​​one for all and all for one we are a community of values ​​we defend democratic and economic freedom and we must be on

the side of what is morally right, erdogan agrees with this and still emphasizes his difficult neighborly situation, saying , look at our borders, here is a series of iraq, the south caucasus, and across the black sea russia and ukraine, therefore, our approach is somewhat different , the turks have been at war with russia like no other since the ottoman empire, we have so many economic relationships . there was a lot of pressure on germany to change its course and fully support ukraine, however, in the case of turkey, we heard how president zelensky himself welcomed the mediation of president erdogan, in particular, in concluding the grain agreement when putin was also grateful. i think that the

moment will come, although not now, when russia will finally be ready for real negotiations and all of nato will welcome the ability of erdogan or any other turkish leader at that moment to be a mediator and therefore to conduct an open dialogue both with ukraine and with russia, i think that it is also very good for the alliance that nato member countries play such an important role, and because of this, putin's stepfather is going through the roof, so putin is trying to drive a wedge between turkey and the rest of nato and bring it closer to russia, but he does not succeed because turkey provided military aid is critical to ukraine . throughout the war, in the form of drones , the mayor also rhetorically supported ukraine and was unwavering. he constantly and consistently condemned russia's invasion of ukraine and also condemned the violation of ukraine's territorial integrity. he

constantly condemns the occupation and annexation of crimea and calls on ukraine to become a member of nato . already about closing the turkish straits for russian warships that are not based in the black sea, of course. it would be better if turkey under the leadership murdogan fully supported all sanctions against russia, but i must say that they appreciate the net benefit of supporting turkey, which is obvious. turkey is definitely in the camp of ukraine, but i also see value in maintaining a line of communication with russia, if it hurts . in the west , it doesn't work, to put it mildly, regarding assessments of what's going on in putin's head, i'm not a psychiatrist, i can't diagnose his next steps , but we see that he's trying to

stick to his old stalin's line, but it's a question of how far and how long he will actually go in this direction. i'm also not a psychiatrist. i think that putin's goals regarding this terrible invasion and aggressive war have changed. now his main goal is probably to survive the physical and political. these are two sides of the same coin, and all this is thanks to the amazing courage and efficiency of the ukrainian military and the national determination of the entire population of ukraine putin received terrible advice from his special services at the beginning of the war he thought he could win a quick victory by seizing kyiv and deposing the government instead suffered a complete failure and now he is stuck in this war of attrition which he is unable to win. and if he cannot win it, then the end is near many

analysts in washington have begun to say and write that they consider the possibility that the whole russian federation will fall apart, it will happen, but the debate in washington has changed drastically, they said something like, oh, we will not provoke putin to escalate this war and he can use nuclear weapons and then even attack nato territory and now russia will collapse as a result of this failed war, so i think that putin's goal in this war is to survive. for this, he hopes that if he throws enough russian soldiers into battle and even if tens and hundreds of thousands die, it will not matter because in the end as a result, many ukrainians will die, the economy will suffer, the civilian population will not be able

to take it anymore and ukraine will finally capitulate. putin believes that he will find a way to declare victory, but this will not happen thanks to the military victory of ukraine and solidarity her friends and allies we will see that putin will have to adjust his goals and i assume that in the end he will say something like okay we really won we showed the west that we are not going to just stand by and let them take ukraine from us we destroyed the nazis whoever putin wants them to be did not consider that in ukraine we rubbed the west of the nose and held some territory about whatever small piece of ukraine he talked about, passing it off as a victory , and then he will go further if he survives and think about how to return to ukraine in another way in the future, but he will not succeed because russia will be incredibly weak at the end of its fiasco in this war. and in the

united states, and in particular in the nato headquarters , they understand what is happening in reality on the territory of russia, in particular, it is about the formation of their military groups and what is happening in the kremlin plus or minus, they have accurate information there i don't have access to classified information that i had before, but judging by the recordings of the conversations of russian soldiers on the battlefield when they call their families or talk to their comrades, i believe that in nato headquarters and in washington there is deep understanding of the terrible morale of the russian military and the fact that even the wagnerians complain that they are used as cannon fodder if they take a step back they get a bullet in the back as in stalin's time everyone knows this, we constantly hear about it in the media and based on my the government has no doubt from previous work experience that the usa and its

nato allies know much more about what is happening in the russian army, what is happening inside the kremlin is much more difficult to understand because it is not easy it is not easy to intercept the relevant messages, it is not easy to penetrate the inner circles at the highest levels of any government, and even more so the russian one, through espionage through agents who can visit and transmit information, but it is definitely easy to understand the pressure putin is under now, i myself hear from my own environment that now even at the level of ministers in russia, not to mention the oligarchs, there is deep resentment against putin. putin, you have ruined our lives. we will never be able to live like this. we used to live like this. you are destroying the reputation of russia. different people even postponed the states, so i

think that there is a deep awareness of how serious the problem is that putin found himself in. that is why i took such a hard position in this interview, as i already said in response to your previous question. i think that putin's goals have changed and now he just wants to survive, unfortunately, i have to end our conversation with the next one. i am grateful, dear mr. ambassador, for this extremely meaningful and interesting conversation, and i want to remind our tv viewers that matthew worked for them on the air of the espresso tv channel bryza, former adviser to the secretary of state of the united states, former director of european and eurasian affairs at the national security council of the united states thank you very much, will continue our analysis political scientist who is in washington andriy piontkovskyi glory to ukraine andriy andriyovich, i congratulate you on

the air of the espresso tv channel glory to the heroes good evening well, we see that the final has taken place rather only in the current phase is the synchronization of the civilized world, which is going to give extremely specific answers to russian aggression against ukraine, in particular, it is about the supply of weapons, in particular, it is about the huge financial davos forum, so how do you see the current unfolding of situations, people are difficult forum, it is a traditional economic forum, it almost talks about economics, they talked only about ukraine, only the victory of ukraine, this is very new characteristics we have been watching the struggle with you for a whole year two concepts in the west, one concept of the administration, the concept of the victory of ukraine, and so the concept was settled, not the defeat of ukraine, our task will not be released defeat,

so it is clear that so-called not defeat in practice, this is the permissiveness of hitler 's putin's company, the genocide of the ukrainian people, the destruction of the sky , the city, and the city. we know when the war will end, but we know that there is a victory of ukraine in the second second election. so on. this is a consensus, you know, in moscow, and they paid attention to the rhetoric of the last days of the moscow government, our figure, they already practically recognize this

position, they scare the account of a nuclear state, it cannot play, well, we will take the whole world with us, everything yes, yes, it means that they heard the signal, but did not understand that the impel was coming soon. well, i still pointed out all these nuclear threats, this is absolutely empty blackmail, if in life the singer voiced that ukraine after victory has every chance and there is a need for it accession to nato, well, this means that the situation has really changed radically, there is already a clear geopolitical certainty, it will follow the shock conception, say from the previous one to you, an hour ago, where he shouted something in the style of peace negotiations, introductions, and so on. he remained a realist of his order realists are ready to give way to strong totalitarians in some ways

already as a realist. well, he realized that i am quoting him back in july, he said the biggest change of the 22nd year, geopolitically, that a new magical appeared on the map of europe, well, on русский самокатно пят новый great power, thanks to one of the most powerful and effective armies in europe, this completely changes the situation, including the troops in nato and i understand it now they have violated this guarantee of the security of the west because at the moment of the crisis and the threat of threats to the west when it is remembered that everything is a face for the minister of december went to the border looking for coins and you who is protecting the request from this storm? the last day is the only strong

effective complaint and the army of ukraine understood this in the west, and this turn is not accidental . loudly said that yes, we will see with money, but ukrainians pay with blood, and if they do not stop, we will have to pay someone , this is the west, he understood. and this is already the verdict of the putin regime in favor of your version. the meeting is also unprecedented. the general of the commander of the military and his american visa of the war of the chief of the joint american staffs of the milli general what do you think about what could have been

discussed ? which day once narrowly spoke more places back in the magazine interview remember i am standing 8 km from melitopol i am ready to go this way coup in the crimea and the kherson region , i need a big kitten for this, and it will be listed, let's say modestly, it's a set of requirements , 300 tanks, $700, 600 hz. i think the two generals have already discussed the specific course of the operation . western allies, but there is one more moment, which is called the moscow kremlin , the appointment of gerasimov to the relevant position of the head of the russian general staff and, accordingly, an attempt to somehow rebuild its

aggressive offensive operation against ukraine the opportunities that russia will pelt corpses with a mob of others as military others, there is nothing left, except for nuclear blackmail, it is just the usual background. well, here is the second thing, many people consider that the appointment for gerasimo will see you here , the determination of moscow, go to the clutch, the meaning of gerasimo corresponds to the other, the intensified struggle internal military-political leadership between the ministry of defense and the group of professional criminals prigozhinna and his ego wait for wagner to be prigozhin leads открытую вой destruction, they are against ukraine. i am against the ministry of defense of russia. well, there is a percentage, then you have to shout. allow yourself

today in a male audience. i awarded the general gerasim and named the entire general staff, but he goes further. pavel, there are newcomers who are thinking about how to lose the war , he is coming to power in russia, that is why moscow is torn apart by the greatest political crisis. i think that this is what will happen. i don't think so, this is how i interpret the events on the night of january 11th in putin's bunker, when there was a print decision about this strangeness, the people were appointed, and we loved it. no , it was not a coup. general pavlov, whom putin shot for his

position at the front. and how did putin participate in this? he also fired a beautiful ball of holy attacks, no more in the future. the generals forced putin to return gerasimo to his post, well, two days later, prigozhin came to him and partially overplayed this situation, so the struggle for the future power in russia after the situation is set to change the entire political non-military top, and after losing, the loser of the russian war will take over from you. how is the only one? for the greek warrior who tried to win that this is definitely only weakening the ability of the russian armed forces and bringing them closer to defeat, well, on the other hand, we understand how much great authority in the same one that he and

gerasimova are working now in the joint, but until today they could not do anything with the same, although the possibilities of the general staff and the ministry of defense of the russian federation i think are much greater. why did they wait and not do one or the other of the act against the same beauty. here they are. they tried to do it. by loyal fighters, they personally bite, they are from this wound, the leader, that we are coming out of the ranks, german beauties, beauties from back in germany, eh, and how many 80 years ago, and in eh restaurant and rexver, german shobys to play there, too, needed his removal,

hydro came to him and errand, a pistol with one cartridge, and roma was forced into a cell, they committed suicide with screams, hai letiter well, it was hitler, our hitler turned out to be much more cowardly, and our roma turned out to be much more determined, что сейчас очень интересное well, you are a political drama, germany in the 34th year, the night of the long knives is repeated in russia only, as it seems to me, with the opposite outcome, so that the long knives are not used for fillets and steaks, but for the long knife, and they are used just as they are beautifying their fighters, very similar to this. which of them will win is important that they destroy each other and bring the end of military resistance to russia and the so -called leningrad speech, he was extremely vague, there were some omissions, it was promised that he would, i don’t know

, almost start full armageddon, but here he had such a leathery speech. why does he keep expelling the same medvedev? nothing needs to be signed. silent silent acceptance is enough. rightly emphasized how you put her putin eh in st. petersburg but he looks like i called him a morel under the athlete and even at the parade in the may parade on red square, etc. he was in shock after the first major defeat of the russian army because he did not run away from goodwill when i threw them out of kyiv in chernihiv so that i could confirm that the first thing is that they don’t bite otherwise , for the past week, he suffered for the first time in his 23 years of visiting two heavy devices. the first was struck

at night 60 on january 11. they demanded that he immediately dismiss his parents, return the federation to its position , they made amends, and the second time, three days later, a handsome man came to him with the opposite demand and demanded that the crimean program of discovitation on the part of the eggs be stopped fighters of fayner and they will issue an official statement of both exploits, eh, after this two things, remember, he is no longer the same person, he is no longer perceived by the apparatus as a width in the criminal world. pahan, and here pahan was dropped twice in one week, for the sake of beauty, only to

obnaglevat such an insult, and he already, as i said already in our conversation, he already launched an attack not only to enter the purely military leadership of the morning staff you understand the arrivals in the presidential administration. it's very interesting. i watched the reaction of the russian propaganda machine for them. this announcement is embarrassing. it's a real source of shame. it would be completely unnecessary. they didn't know how not to react, and in general, it has been going on since then on patriotic sites. pretty positive lighting , beautiful children, here in this environment of insane patriots, he is gaining points and he is this cynical expatriate. hey, once again, i am already here. i see his intention. he understands in russia lost, but he in advance, he himself planned the video of hitler's future , the losers of russia, the loser of russia

will tell us what, dude, wander, how do i say a geyser, remember, they made a knife in the back, traitors from the general staff, from the presidential administration, that's what the guy will play for many more years in russia therefore, he understands that yes , ukraine will return its territory, it will return to the border, the west will ensure the security of ukraine with its own security by accepting ukraine into nato and the baron's strict system, but what will be done inside russia no one will climb there anymore, let themselves go, frogs and vipers will do whatever they want. what is the question, no , not in ukraine, i am not asking, not the flight . what is being released such a huge trillion property assets will all be

ex-putinsky i train a seagull gerasimov can now play a specific role in the whole matter, perhaps gerasimov was simply removed from a certain position and given a specific task war against ukraine yes, for sure they could set some deadline, we give you a deadline in order to show this or that bloody result 2-3 months if you do not succeed, well, accordingly , then you would say suspended sentences well, this is not rekosovsky in the camp, in a dinner position, and he got emu there alone from proverbs , gerasim has already shown himself as a military breeder, we are all this crazy plan, eh, the first days of the war. well, putin is also responsible for the very idea of ​​war, for the divine philosophical hatred of ukraine, but the planks are idiotic with a tank columns and marching northers. this is what gerasim earns, and gerasimo, by the way, graduated from the

academy of the general staff in the tank sector. well, this is a competent tank blacksmith, they have the same quality as both wells, and so that you and i have already demonstrated, and you repeat gerasim once again it was not set up in order to run away in ukraine. gerasim already set shoigu as a jessom, this is even before that, a mini military coup. they wanted to liquidate prigozhin physically. well, here is the story. they are setting up a big experiment for russia. alternative history of hitler's fascism, who won in a good year, you are ex-men, and i became a chuller myself. that's the main intrigue, the intrigue in russia. tempole, you understand perfectly well that after the talks, the fate of the war is already lower. well,

i agree with you and it is a very characteristic indicator . about what is happening in the kremlin , there is one or another leak of information , because there is no way to check it, there is an absolutely specific official answer of piskov to the trolling of our president zelensky, who said, and maybe putin so to speak, she is not real. or, so to speak, putin is no longer there, and literally in a couple of hours, a hysterical statement came from the kremlin press secretary. this is a phrase that will become a celebrity to patrol. i think that the military political leadership of the country is aware, although we are no worse than you, and the struggle that putin has for children really does not have putin after 10 p.m. at 11 p.m.

января опушенный хахан is no longer plowed at first he was bent generaly cat came even more to нул him in the opposite direction beautiful here is this pitiful smokchek posle etogor there or his doubles walked around the cemetery i i do not miss that he is not there for you in the immediate physical sense but in the political sense zelensky is absolutely right and he spoke with a sense of business after these two apparatuses defeated putin. there is no president putin in the kremlin . unfortunately, i have to end our conversation with the next one. thank you andrii andriyovich for this analysis on the air of the espresso tv channel, i want to remind our tv viewers that andriy pionkovsky, a political scientist who is in washington meetings, worked for them, the time of our program has run out, stay with the tv channels with the press my colleagues work for you non-stop, keep an eye on yourself