[000:00:00;00] forms this is when people go down to the metro station and start singing the national anthem there. because other ukrainian songs are there, people try to entertain each other and cheer each other up , and it's nice. by the way, i want to make a certain trailer, considering that such a psychologically emotional the condition of residents of large cities, not only kyiv , in the capital, in particular, a huge request to drivers who have cars with powerful engines , very loud engines, who like to press the gas, after which their cars make very loud noises, and this actually scares civilians residents, as they say in odessa , let's not get on each other's nerves. yes, we all live in a very difficult time, a turbulent time ago . let's think first of all for our neighbors, for the people who live and fight next to us

, think not only about ourselves. thank you mykhailo , spokesman of the kyiv city military administration of the viewers who were mykhailo's viewers when he worked on television, but now andrii yanitskyi is ready to tell you the economic news. thank you, colleagues. today we will have an extremely interesting guest, the deputy head of the national of the bank of ukraine, serhiy nikolaychuk, do not switch to economic news. i congratulate andriy yanitsky with economic news on the espresso tv channel at eight in the morning, as usual , on weekdays, today we work live . you can also watch us on the internet at any time. now in the stream , leave your comments in the chat, i will definitely answer after the program, send

the link to the stream to your friends, relatives , acquaintances, let them also learn about the news of the economy, no vaccines and robots for russians the japanese introduced new sanctions against the russian federation from february 3, the export of vaccines, medical equipment and robots will be prohibited, it will not be possible to import radioactive materials and equipment for nuclear facilities, the japanese government also extended personal sanctions against 22 individuals and three organizations from russia, among them, for example, a children's ombudsman maria lvova bilova , deputy minister of defense of the russian federation mykhailo mizintsev, deputy prime ministers dmytro chernishenka and andriy bilousov, as well as generals of the russian army, gauleiters

appointed by the invaders to positions in the occupied ukrainian territories, floating power plants will provide light and electricity to 1 million ukrainian families ukraine signed a memorandum with the turkish side by a turkish company on the development and financing of such innovative power plants, forbes ukraine writes about this, this decision will allow overcoming the current energy crisis provoked by missile strikes russian occupiers are planned to be located near the coasts of moldova and romania as part of the project, which will protect them from of russian rockets and from there they will already transmit electricity to ukraine well, the good news is that a ukrainian will receive a record fee for publishing a book in the united states of america $200,000 will be paid to yevgeny klopotenko for the author's book of recipes , forbes writes about it this is the largest amount that an american publishing house has offered to foreign chefs, the previous record reached about $140,000, the book was prepared for printing

in only two months, although usually such projects are worked on for more than a year. it will see the light of day in the spring of this year. and now let's talk with by our guest serhii nikolaychuk deputy chairman of the national bank of ukraine mr. serhii i congratulate you good morning mr. andriy so, yesterday the monetary e-e committee of the national bank of ukraine held its meeting, which determines the discount rate, that is, in fact , the value of money in the economy. well , other decisions were announced to begin with. tell me how in general technically, it is conducted. that is, you are going offline online somehow, well, discuss and vote, that is, it is a collective decision-making, so that there is no such will of the mother, some kind of decisions from one person one top - one top officials that is, you yourself cannot determine

what course will be the course of monetary policy decisions and the process of preparing them for adoption - this is a very thorough and established process . two days are almost full if the meeting of the monetary policy committee was already finalized , worked on and discussed. and before that , the actual preparation of these decisions took several weeks decisions, working meetings, including with the involvement of members of the board, various aspects of the macroeconomic forecast were considered, as well as the decisions that the

board made yesterday. remotely, well, this process, if also since the pandemic , has been working well in just such a remote mode , now the discount rate is at the level of 25%, for example, if i am not mistaken , many economists are absolutely correct. well, in principle, i in its communications, the national bank hinted that it would be possible to expect a rate cut, but of course it did not say exactly when, since it is always a surprise. why did they decide not to cut the rate this time? why is it not yet time? in fact, our discount rate forecast, which we publish , seems to have been on today assumes that we will reduce the rate from the second quarter of 2024, that is, during this year we will receive it at the level of 25%. actually, this is a forecast, again, not

a commitment if they will change macroeconomic conditions, we will change the forecasts. and we can actually go back in our decisions and lower the rate earlier or , if necessary, raise it, but today we need a fairly high interest rate in order to ensure sufficient attractiveness of assets in the national currency in wartime and, accordingly , to reduce the demand for foreign currency , and at the expense of this, to ensure exchange rate stability, and through this channel to achieve our goal of reducing inflation, that is, you were not convinced by the decrease in inflation last year i.e. inflation is 26.6, despite forecasts of about 30%, and this did not inspire you to perhaps slightly relax the level of the discount rate and make money more accessible, the fact that

inflation in our country was 26.6%, and by 30%, as predicted and we and the majority of analysts during the whole of last year is of course a plus, but even 26.6% - this is a very high level of inflation and i will remind you that before the war we had a goal of 5% and in the end we would like to return inflation to this level within a few years therefore, if it were 26.6%, i would not say that this level should inspire us yesterday the board also announced, you absolutely correctly said that the board met yesterday for the monetary committee, the humanitarian committee met earlier, but yesterday the board also announced new macro forecasts and somewhere they worsened with regard to the growth rates of the economy , for example, and somewhere they actually improved precisely with regard to the rates of price growth

can you name the numbers? yes, we actually see economic growth this year at the level of 0.3%, well , a very low level, we can say that the economic gdp will be approximately at the level last year, back in october, we assumed that e-gdp would grow this year by 4%, but we were forced to revise our key assumptions, firstly, due to the effects of energy terror in recent months, and e-e took into account in our forecasts the damage to the energy infrastructure, the shortage of electricity and the corresponding consequences for business and for the population, for consumer life, in our forecasts we also took into account additional security risks that appeared in connection with the intensification of hostilities in connection with

the waves of mobilization of russia at the moment now we can see a decrease in these security risks from the beginning of next year, then if in october we missed that they will seriously decrease already within this year actually due to the revision of these assumptions and taking into account other factors, of course, we are currently, as i said we looked at the forecast for economic growth and we see its significant, uh, significant acceleration only in the next year, uh, also up to 4% in the next year, up to 64%, uh, in the 25th year . well, it's easier to be optimistic in the long term in the medium term now, as far as inflation is concerned, i just have a clarifying question. this is optimism about inflation. does it or does it not apply to the fact that , for example, the prices of tariffs for communal services are administratively restrained, and it is possible that these will be administratively received for some

groups of goods, and also an exchange rate at the same level as the previous one will be administratively received from where? such optimism about the fact that the rates of price growth will decrease well, first of all, we already took into account the dynamics of last year , which we talked about yes, and secondly, and secondly , it is really one of the important assumptions of our of the microeconomic forecast is a review of tariffs for housing and communal services, and at the moment, taking into account the fact that we have increased er hmm extended the term if increased security risks, we believe that this year the increase of these tariffs will be very sluggish , in contrast, again, to what we missed laid in our forecasts in october, this is precisely what led to a downward revision of the inflation forecast for this year to the 18th seven percent compared to 21%, which we saw back in

october . we also took into account the fact that today we see much more opportunities to ensure the exchange rate , that is, we have significantly revised the forecast for international aid. in october, we have clear agreements with the eu . with the united states, we see tangible progress in relations with the international monetary fund, therefore, in principle, this figure is quite comfortable for us, that is, we can expect that the exchange rate of the hryvnia will somehow be radically

it is not necessary to change during the year, considering the fact that we see an inflow of currency into the country, and considering the regulation of the central bank, i would definitely not talk about radical changes right now . it seems to me that there are no special reasons for this in the coming months, if it were our policy will remain unchanged, we will base it will be based on a fixed exchange rate, at the same time we are constantly talking about the fact that in the long term we would certainly like to return to a floating exchange rate exchange rate and we are actually already working on a strategic program for this, but the question is that there must be acceptable prerequisites for this, and actually this transition will definitely be managed without, as you say, without radical changes in the exchange rate. i know that the national bank never gives specific figures forecast for the exchange rate, but i will allow myself to voice the forecasts of the invest company dragon capital, which says that at least for the first half

of the year, the rate that is now officially there will be 36.6 and the temperature of a healthy person, but by the end of the year they expect that there may be numbers such as 42, for example, 40 hryvnias per dollar, which in principle is not, uh, something extraordinary, if they really let go, the regulator will let go of the exchange rate, but i understand what to expect, we are not talking about a completely free exchange rate and free exchange rate formation. slightly relaxed e-e regulations of course even when we talk about the transition to a floating exchange rate it will be a very controlled floating in our children currency offers on the market ensures the national bank if we were to talk about a full transition to a full

floating without the participation of the national bank makes absolutely no sense. the national bank of ukraine also changed the requirements for banks regarding reserves and made them stricter . as far as i understand why you made such a decision , what signal are you sending to the banks? and the population, of course, to the depositors of these banks, what should happen, first of all, -e i would like to note that this decision has several aspects for us during the past year. during this year, our banking sister system received a fairly significant financial resource in connection with the fact that in connection with the fact that

we have a huge budget deficit, which is financed primarily by international aid, and last year it was also financed with the support of the national bank. most of the funds in recent months have been deposited in the current accounts of the banking system. well, in our opinion, this creates a certain liquidity canopy, which in the medium-term perspective, it may create additional risks precisely because e-banks, at the same time, reacted rather slowly to the increase of the national bank's discount rate to 25%, slowly increasing their deposit rates both for the population and for the corporate sector. well, in fact, our actions are aimed precisely at what makes it more expensive for banks to keep funds on current accounts , because it is precisely these additional reserve requirements that they, uh, put forward precisely for current

accounts and actually, in this way, uh, you say we are sending a signal to the banking system that banks should offer their depositors more attractive conditions for deposits, increased deposit rates , and transfer a significant part of this liquidity to time deposits. the discount rate was better reflected in the rates of deposits and loans of commercial banks, it is absolutely true. well, if we talk about, for example, the transmission mechanism , the date of the rate increase from june 25%, i.e. by 15% of points, led to how much more than six months had already passed, if it had been there, the deposit rates on time deposits in the average banking system increased by 6% of points

by counting volumes, in fact, if we would like a slightly larger transmission, yes, transmission works, but not as effectively as we would like for a long time and how and the actual increase in the maturity of deposits, the increase in rates on them would give us a more comfortable regulation of the foreign exchange market. we could then more actively release the restrictions that we we now use e-e in order to keep the exchange rate e-e stable well, this is an additional tool for restraining the rise in prices. as far as i understand, people should not actively spend funds but carry them on deposits in banks and receive income from e-e , this aspect is also important although again, as i have already said, in our country at the moment the reduction of inflation is ensured primarily due to exchange rate stability. well, the last question is literally one

minute. perhaps we have a confrontation between the nbu and the ministry of finance last year. constantly stimulated the ministry of finance to raise rates on bank securities, and the ministry of finance did not do this, and the national bank of ukraine had to actually print money, not in the physical sense, of course, but to issue the hryvnia this year. hryvnia and thus put pressure on prices. well, i wouldn't call our relations with the ministry of finance last year a confrontation, but it is laid by the nature of just two departments. let's say it's natural. the mandate to ensure the macro-financial stability of the state and er and each of the known is responsible for one of the parts of this mandate

yes but on the other hand if sometimes these parts of the mandate they can really if they cause different approaches to the implementation of general macroeconomic macro-financial policy in the state however, i would i would like to note that in recent months we have found a common language with our colleagues from the ministry of finance , and this was partly facilitated by our joint work within the framework of monitoring the program with the international monetary fund, as a matter of fact, within the framework of which solutions were worked out for a set of measures that allow us to avoid emission financing of the budget deficit this year and to actively restore the ministry of finance's attraction of funds on the domestic market there , that is, this year we will be somewhat more restrained you see the position of the national bank regarding the imitation of the e

-e hryvnia of 400 billion hryvnias, as this year we will not print it properly if last year the national bank bought e-e bonds of the domestic state loan for 400 billion hryvnias what was one of the factors that led to the acceleration of inflationary processes? this year, if our e forecasts and our agreements with the government predict that we will not have commission financing of the budget deficit. of the bank of ukraine, they talked about the latest decisions of the board of the national bank of ukraine, which were made yesterday in the afternoon, and i, andriy yanitsky , host of the economic news program on

the espresso tv channel, see you on monday at 8:00 a.m. together we will win cinema, television, sport, music, education, free people have a choice, choose what you want on megogo, art in the country of war, a series of documentaries, each of which will tell about one of the ukrainian artists, artists who did not go abroad and continue their creative path in ukraine well, the impression is that the story just entered now, yes, at some such moment , where everything just came together in it, as if linearly , so what happened there that we remember then, there was a kind of drag, and as if it is now everything

at one moment and we see that well, everything repeats itself, but how the place and meaning of the artist and his work change. in a country at war, see in the new tv series from the studio dopnotfilm, the association babylon 13 art in the country of war from january 16 on weekdays from monday to friday at 11:10 on espresso i will never forget that night the first night at camp that turned my whole life into one long night i will never forget those faces of children whose bodies before my eyes turned into rings of smoke against the background of a silent sky never i will not forget it. even if i were condemned to live forever like god himself. good morning, friends, we are coming back and continuing our marathon moratorium. thank you for being with us

. andriy saichuk is working for you today. i am lesya vokluk for the next four hours. it's interesting. well, it's so interesting now that it won't be impressive on tsn . i'm reading to you now what tv channel 1+1 is reporting that and vlad rose, an astrologer said that the most terrible month is coming. putin will want to take kyiv and cut off ukraine from the west. these are the ones news from the astrologer vlada ros god, how alive astrologers once said that there would be no war, but they were wrong about something well, let's move a little from astrological forecasts to people who are currently in the hottest areas of the front, and this is volodymyr nazarenko, lieutenant of the legion of freedom, volodymyr dobrogo in the morning good morning studio good morning tv viewers what is your situation where are you now what is your situation

actually stable unusual difficult situation in the bakhmut direction the enemy tried to advance at night and tried the same in the morning by small assault groups, the number of armored vehicles and tanks that the enemy began to use increased significantly, in principle , this is not surprising in this direction of bakhmut. landing forces near kherson near kharkov, which quickly replenished what concerns the bahamian direction, specifically , what we see is, uh, quickly gathered young guys who uh, were trained by some military disciplines according to soviet textbooks, their actions are roughly felt and we see what development says what we see that they act as written in soviet textbooks, no, in

principle, it does not help because they become easy misha, they are also felt well, they are not so much, too to say motivated are not so disciplined in terms of what they are ready to die, unlike mercenaries, from criminals, convicts from vamir, that is, after all , they are afraid to approach in such a number , as was the case with the private company of these mercenaries, but they compensate for this. let's say yes, they compensate for the offensive pressure with the use of tanks and a greater use of artillery mortars, therefore , in principle, the situation is similar to the hm tactics that the enemy used there in may, in june, here is a fresh video. i don't know, i can't surrender. it was yesterday or the day after yesterday, but there is such a heavy bombardment of the surrounding area, it is probably bahmut and

they even assume that it is thermobaric ammunition that the russians are shelling the city and further destroying it completely, that is, i understand that there is a problem with artillery shells with fire russians don't have shafts. now maybe they want to create a certain illusion that they can continue the same pressure that a private company did on criminals. in fact, they don't succeed because we can clearly see how the three mobilized soldiers, those mobilized are cheap soldiers, they are unmotivated, it's difficult to arrest them. to force to go on the attack , to move forward, i.e., those advances which, in principle, unfortunately, take place at the expense of the remnants of these mercenaries, e-e, along the rest of the line

in the bahamian direction, the situation is stable we hold the defense on the contrary, at such an explosive rate, we destroy the enemy's armored vehicles and the enemy's artillery system and the enemy's mortars and dozens of the enemy's manpower every day, specifically , the svoboda battalion, part of the fourth brigade of the national guard, destroys these by dozens , and the rapidly mobilized young m and they are destroying the forward warehouses with ammunition, that is , in fact, a very large collision. we are trying to drive them away from the front edge . that is, to increase the distance of the enemy somewhere retreated a little from the front trenches, in some cases we succeed in doing so. well, in fact, the situation is extremely dynamic, i emphasize because the pace is very high because of the collision, and i would like to express the only thing that along the entire front line we are ready to hit the enemy more and more, only the more ammunition, the more we can be enemies but again , i would like to draw the attention of everyone

who is watching this broadcast now, very difficult times are ahead - difficult times, because the enemy will try to distract attention, try to advance, you know, as they say in soviet films, forward forward already there for stalin for and one more dictator only then they advanced in large numbers now they will advance in smaller quantities but this does not mean that they will not bear losses they will bear losses just as they did with whole penalty bats well that is, the enemy will bear losses and the only problem is that all the assaults on the entire front line will be quite massive in order to distract attention to probe our uh weak points, so i would like to urge everyone to prepare prepare and the war will be won by technology skills training and not only live

strength, namely the ability to destroy enemies, they need bakhmut symbolically to show that there is some kind of victory or, after all, for them it is er there is some place to move on at the moment i fully affirm that this is some kind of psychological er psychiatric i don't i know the schizophrenic idea of ​​a fix in the bunker grandfather eh because before the start of winter they needed bakhmut to winter over to build some kind of defense line eh there is a frantic line of defense, the fact that they basically lost the opportunity to advance, they could not take ukraine into bakhmut in the first battle in the first stage boe-zabahu won in one gate. as they say, after re-grinding the base there is 80% of the wagner pvk, and after re-grinding it, they can’t even replenish it, that is, no one wants to go, no one wants to sign those contracts, and the criminals say no, we immediately