[000:00:00;00] the economic destruction that took place in the last year will be added to these economic relations, which will undoubtedly continue throughout the next period of our war with russia. and no one knows how long this war will last. said a rather responsible stage of this war, then there will always be a question of what to do with the victory in the war and how to convert this victory into a normal and not even prosperous one, i think it can be forgotten but the stable life of the ukrainian of the state, we will talk about it now with the legal adviser to the president of ukraine on economic issues, oleg mostynka. congratulations, oleg. well, let's just try . i think it's time to evaluate the ukrainian economy. today, they say that it has shrunk by 35%. it seems to me that these are generally even optimistic figures. by and large, maybe not, because you and i never know what the contribution to our economy

of the shadow sector is, how it decreases, fans of crisis events, this is also quite often a surprise for economists, what do you know on paper, this is reduced, but we look on the street. and there, such a reduction is not visible either in business, or in the purchasing power of citizens, or in the work of enterprises and smaller and medium -sized businesses. the reality with which we always deal outside the numbers, well, the shadow sector of the economy in ukraine has always existed, by the way, it exists in any country in the world and, let's say, in western economies , there is no problem only in how big it is in relation to the ukrainian economy if i i remember the statistics correctly, and i think that i remember correctly for the 21st year, this is the last time when it caused such a lively interest , so you remember that according to the estimates

of the ministry of economy, it was around the 30s percent of the ukrainian economy were in the shadow, which meant that at that time we produced approximately in the 21st year we reached the maximum value of our domestic product in modern economic history, it was approximately 200 billion dollars , so it can be assumed that then the shadow sector of the economy was approximately billions of dollars but in those two stakhs, this horse sector of the economy was also partially taken into account . there are such statistical schedules. i think that i simply would not like to burden the stories about how it is all calculated, but what the shadow sector of the economy does in ukraine

or performed such a function, as it were, as a pillow of such an additional e-e that any hit was made not so e heavy, it was true, but i am not sure that this applies to the 22nd year e already during the war, we really fell e to a third, this is really big the fall of yake in general, we had the most profound decline that we have had since our modern economic history since 1991, there were also declines, but they were in a more long-term perspective, but they were for a year, they were smaller in relation to the fact that we fell by 35% was expected, because part of our enterprises, well, half of our enterprises were either destroyed or worked part-time or worked a part-time work week, part of our enterprises that managed to be taken to the west of the country, they

some of the enterprises started working there, because part of the territory had already been liberated from the occupation, and therefore the forecast that had already been published for this year was again the ministry of economy, which was taken into account in the state budget. this was a forecast for three growth percentages, on the other hand, if you look, let's say, in retrospect, you can see that when minicon gave a growth forecast for this current 23rd year, it came out with such a large discrepancy from the fall to there five 0.5%. well, half a percent to a 15% increase. why is this happening, because the factor of war is the factor of the greatest risk, and from when the war will end , it will be possible to predict that then we will quickly begin to recover, but what was chosen for the state budget for this year was

an increase of approximately 3%, but you also know that this week the national bank of ukraine said that, with a high probability of growth, the probability of growth will be much lower , they are talking about a quarter of a percent for this year again, war , instability plus these attacks, what are the russians they carry out critical infrastructure for us when you don't have electricity, the company can't work, it's clear that we sit without light in our homes or we get light there according to certain schedules. products that pay er taxes, on which the security of our country depends in the end, and you push back from that, pushing away from that, you can say that the challenges for 20 er, the third year er are

really significant well, as soon as the war ends we are moving into a period of post-war reconstruction, you know what even these statements that have been making for the last few days about the fact that there is no doubt that we will end this war with our victory already this year, the only question for me as an economist is when exactly and from that we can already build a strategy , uh, not even a strategy, we can make calculations about how quickly we will be able to reach the level we were at before february 24 of this year , tell me if you imagine what is there from the first the war ends in february, based on that, we can assume that

february 1 is 25, based on the fact that we can grow by 15% per year , which is exactly what is forecasted after the fall that occurred, then we can say that plus two years, that is, during the period until february 1 24, and then by february 1, 25, we can fully reach uh, but from the point of view of absolute values, yes, from the point of view of the size of the gdp in dollar terms, we can reach that level by february 24, 22, that is, in two years we can recover another thing about that there is a lot of discussion right now, what kind of economy do we want to achieve, what should be rebuilt, should we rebuild those enterprises that used old technical and technological salaries, or should we build everything on new technologies

, should we build it based on old energy systems that need to be built on new approaches to energy, including green energy, which is being talked about so much now, especially those that are related to the further development of plans for our development already in the post-war period, is it necessary to rebuild those structures that were simply demolished by the enemy, or do we need to build completely new housing in principle, well, here the answer is, it is obviously clear, we will build it on a synonous basis, everything must be developed based on those modern trends and even not those that are now and those that will be tomorrow the day after tomorrow and a year from now in order to fit into

the world realities in which we will find ourselves as soon as possible and two years for recovery and plus fast enough growth should occur again, that is, this trend it has to be stable, because ukraine , which is on the track of joining the european union, simply cannot afford not to catch up with the rest of the european union countries for a long period of time. of the economy, and by the way, these are the conversations that are being held regarding the reconstruction of the ukrainian economy, including when there was a discussion

of this issue. it starts already after the war well, if you want to become such an advertising candy that will simply prove to everyone in the world, especially to those tyrannies and to people who live in tyrannies, to show that it is normal, it is normal, it is a free society and a normal free country can to develop much faster and can show results much faster in relation to the standard of living of its population. by the way, there is such a thing here, i will not say a contradiction, but there are many such studies that were previously done in the world that showed that totalitarian countries can ensure high rates

economic growth, but in such a very limited time, the prospects of countries that are developing on the path of democracy, on the contrary, show the pace of economic growth and , accordingly, the increase in the standard of living of the population is much more stable for such a long period. and i believe that this is exactly the track on which it is ukraine is and will be in its own post-war reconstruction. and tell me, sir, but this e has taken shape, and it has not been reconstructed for two years . it will act in this situation when, let's say, the war ends in a year, but in two or three, because we understand that the war can have different tracks of development, and here it is important to understand that the war ended in the 23rd year, and if 2/4 also requires two years, does the reconstruction time increase, and if it increases even more on the 25th , that is, it is very important to understand the long-term conflict to exhaustion, how much years, he will demand from ukraine the restoration of its economy, even if we take it as an axiom that this restoration will

take place internationally on the territory of our country. fell in the previous year by a third, and this year we will grow by a quarter of a percent, the situation is simply not changing. well, if you take into account the level of uh until february 24, december 22, that is, even with this schedule, here we are we are going through this whole year and we are starting reconstruction already from february , but next year, yes, the 23rd and the 24th, it will still be plus two years , it’s just that it is shifting, that is, it is already the end - the deadline for reconstruction is still two years, but from february 24 then + 2 years then

until february 25 and then until february 26 but that's it one thing, again, returning to the previous message, i am sure that all of us, of course, expect that this will happen as soon as possible, and with the supply of military equipment, what is happening in terms of our support now, i mean in including economic support, all this is a guarantee that our victory is. well , in terms of time, it is still closer than , say, the end of the 23rd year. prospects, so to speak, what to say about the two-digit recovery at the same time, other economies of other countries are also not standing still. thus, in any case, we are lagging behind during the war and lagging behind, so far

we are adjusting our own rates of development in two years, and in at this time, europe is moving forward. it is not standing still and waiting for us to reach our previous level. that's how it is and even if we don't even take into account then europe , uh, we'll be members of it. yes, uh, i mean members of the european union and they are developing, you say that correctly, but we would develop, let's say for the 22nd year , the forecast was that we should grow by 3.5%, but instead we fell by a third, that is, to this third, how much more have we lost, we would have to add the three and a half percent that we did not grow and the growth that was predicted for this year back then, on february 23, 2022, this growth was also predicted at the level of approximately

about three percent, we will not get them either , that is, you are right in order to make us wait for a long time it is necessary to show europe that economic growth rates must be maintained for a long period of time, i.e. two years for recovery. by the way, it is not so difficult because if you have such a low statistical base for comparison, then to provide after such a devastation that is due to russian aggression will not be so difficult to ensure growth for two years, the dilemma is to continue to ensure such high rates of economic growth in the following years and here i would say that why we can be sure that the rate of economic growth will be maintained at a sufficiently high level even after the two-year recovery. the first thing is that, in

principle, there are funds for this recovery. these are seized funds of the russian federation, which in the end will be directed to the needs of the russian federation. restoration of ukraine, i.e. funds, this is one of the opportunities to stimulate economic development , moreover, there is full interest of international investors in order to come to the ukrainian economy, and again this was emphasized, well, from different sides, but it is also true what about the largest global investors who met with president zelensky last year, who, by the way, talked about it themselves , including at the davol forum , such as larifinka or the united states of america fund

black stone under the leadership of which is simply hundreds of billions of dollars or such investors, the well-known fortress hew from australia and many other investors who said that for them staying in ukraine as an investor is simple and it is a massive have to be, that is what they said. we cannot afford not to be in ukraine. we just have to be there, but you also have to understand that when investors talk to you like that, it can work again for a short period of time in order for them to remain in its economy in order for them to continue these high investments in the economy, by the way, 1 billion dollars of investment, well, it was in the pre-war years, maybe in the post-war years, it will be a slightly different figure, but in principle, you can orient yourself so that they can add additional growth to the economy by

half a percentage point, that is, if you receive 10 billion dollars of investments in your country, well, in our country, in ukraine, then you will additionally be able to get up to the economic level of economic growth that you could in principle achieve, you can still get plus 5% points, let's say you grow by 10%, and in these an additional $10 billion in investment can add another five percentage points and bring your growth to 15%. well, investors should be saved, and in order for investors to come and save, here is also our homework related. it's just boring in such a term, but what is called improving the business or investment climate, and here, by the way, it works for us, including in the track of our joining the european union , because there are many changes, including institutional changes, these institutional changes are his

ensuring property rights, the second - this is a reform, a high-quality judicial system , what they call ruloflo, a high-quality judicial system, reduction of administrative barriers for doing business, all this makes it possible to reduce risks for investors who work with them, will or will work already post military ukraine. that is, it gives an opportunity to maintain an interest in ukraine primarily at the expense of these investors, because they will be able to receive on their investments that uh that profile that that profit that will fully compensate them even then is called reduced risk because the risk of the corresponding and decreases for them and this means that we can grow additionally plus where when we

enter the european first of all for me this joined the european union at one time and was able to receive, according to the size of its own economy at that time, more than 100 billion euros under reform support programs called then it was called the fare program, now there is a slightly different abbreviation, but in principle the essence is the same and the country is preserved joins the european union, it needs funds for appropriate additional development and reform, and this also opens up opportunities , that is, several factors will work at once on the one hand. the factor is related to money

received from russia, which make it possible to stimulate internal development and domestic consumption , the second group of factors is all about investments, and the third group of factors is everything about these institutional transformations that make it possible for which are based on the fact that we enter and become first candidates and then members of the european union. i would not orient myself, by the way, there are many now on the factor that was so significant in terms of our economic development - this is our export potential. i believe that we should of course maintain our leading positions in the agricultural market and the food market, and even during this war it was already clear that many

lives in the world depend on us , and when we when we say many lives, we mean that it can be up to 300-400 million people , whose lives, in principle, will either completely depend on whether we can or cannot , we can first grow our agricultural products and then have the opportunity accordingly to sell it on world markets, i.e. imagine what numbers we are talking about, all the rest, everything that was before that. it seems to me that in the end it will develop quickly enough in terms of the fact that, after all , all these industries that produce higher to more high added value, let's say it's not just metallurgical products. and it's more about. well, in terms

of development, including those related to metallurgical industries, they are getting development. why am i talking about this ? i remember this study by ivan koropetsky, who describes ukraine in 1913 when they say that in 1913, ukraine was part of the russian empire, ukraine is an export-independent part of the russian empire, and 80% of gdp is formed precisely at the expense of exports, and if more than half of ukraine's gdp at that time is formed at the expense of exports a and that is included in it has been 100 years since the export of agricultural products and food and metallurgy. yes, if we look at the end of the 20th

of this year, before the beginning of the war, we were no longer part of some empire. products with low e-e with low cost back home, it remained the only thing that was added to agro and to metallurgy , chemistry was also added, and there it was 80%, and in the pre-war period, on february 24, it was approximately 40 50 %, it was a product with just that low level of added value, this hundred-year or even more than 100-year track of development. it should be. well, not that it is broken. it should be completely raised to

a level, and this new level is all about e- e development there i do not know mechanical engineering to export instead of er instead of metallurgy, machine-building products instead of just agricultural raw materials , let's say if we are not talking about grain by grain. if we are talking about some new technologies , then this opens up opportunities for it development .

are so new for our economy and this is an opportunity to really find a leap. thank you, mr. olezh, for such a long answer. the adviser to the president of ukraine on economic issues, oleg kostenko, told how the economy of ukraine can develop after the war. and now we will answer a few questions that we already have at the end of this hours, if russia still hasn't declared war. it's even very difficult for us to prove that the russian missile in ukraine is an act of aggression , so how can we hope that russian war criminals will be tried in an oasis and that more than russia paying reparations well, let's live in the real world, if victory for ukraine means liberating its territory and not allowing russia to occupy new ukrainian regions, then of course no war criminals will be tried in the hague and no reparations will be paid to the russians, unless, as i just said that mr. kostenko, russian assets abroad will be confiscated at the expense of the restoration of ukraine, but for this we also need

a certain legal procedure and of course in such a situation we will see meetings of the president vladimir putin's russia with many world leaders after the end of the war is not a court, but ourselves, and this must be realized in order to live in the real world, which after the war will certainly not be the way we would like to see it during the war , because if we do not imagine the reality, then victory in the war, it will immediately plunge us into a political depression that we will not get out of for years, so that real trials of russian war criminals will happen if serious changes take place in russia itself if russia becomes democratic state if it wants to return to the international community , if it wants to hand over its war criminals to judicial gas, but we must remember that such a russia will become the most authoritative country in central europe , and ukraine may find itself in a geopolitical price or its russia, with which all european

countries will go there to be friends or we will interfere. so we must also remember that russia , which extradites war criminals - it is a continental hegemon, the choice is yours, otherwise it is nothing for history. well, again, the question about the tribunal , victoria nuland reported that the international an international terminal for russia may appear by the summer of 23, do you believe that this terminal will actually happen, that the created mechanisms will work and putin and his entourage will actually end up on the dock, under what conditions it can happen, i already answered this question, the nuremberg tribunal happened because germany was occupied by the allies, who arrested hitler's criminals and could try them according to the norms that were once created specifically for this process , the international gold-plated tribunal in the former

haslavia took place because the countries of the former gstavia recognized the jurisdiction of this tribunal. russia is not an occupied country and is unlikely to be one, and it certainly does not recognize any jurisdiction of any international tribunal , moreover, as soon as such a terminal is created in moscow, a tribunal will begin to judge ukrainian and western military criminals and re-sentences will be absolutely symmetrical. absentee verdict. i do not believe in absentia justice at all, that's why i already said what is the mechanism of democratic april or russia flagman of european development, which sends its military personnel to bring its war criminals to the international tribunal and wants to return to the civilized world, which recognizes the illegality of the occupation of the crimean donbas, which wants to build the world together with the european union and nato. do you believe in such a russia? i do not believe in the foreseeable future. if such a russia appears , it will be a serious civilizational threat to the existence of ukraine, because a huge number of our compatriots will say, why

don't we speak russian languages ​​there? such a democratic rich country needs to unite with a moment and this can be such a blow to ukrainian civilization that ukraine can so that it is all quite serious oh a number of free officials at the top of the government and an inspection by the americans regarding the costs of the aid provided by us, these are related things, what should we wait for then we should wait for the identification of the fight against corruption, which will be initiated by our allies and partners, and this is very important, of course, something that we talk about all the time on this broadcast. i sincerely thank you, friends , for being on this broadcast, i pass on the word our innocent services and not in melnyk will now present you with the latest news of the hours. good