[000:00:00;00] radio svoboda on social networks we are on instagram, telegram, facebook, twitter, viber, subscribe and keep up to date with the latest events and news that we report on. and also, we have two channels on youtube, radio svoboda and radio svoboda ukraine, where we publish reports e-e from all regions of ukraine, where our correspondents work, and from the world, where our correspondents also work, and finally , you can always leave your comments, questions, comments in the chat for the broadcast. and also subscribe so you don't miss the next program svoboda life. we will broadcast art in the country of war tomorrow, a series of documentaries, each of which will tell about one of the ukrainian artists, artists who did not go abroad and continue their creative path. in ukraine,

the impression is that just the story entered now, yes, at some such moment, where everything just gathered in it, like a linear one, that's what happened there that we remember then, it was a kind of drag, but now it's like it's all at one moment, and we see that well, that's all it is repeated, however, as the place and meaning of the artist and his work change. in a country at war, see in the new tv series from the docnotfield studio, the association babylon 13 art in the country of war from january 16, on weekdays from monday to friday at 11:10 a.m. nayspresso battery stations weltrum are designed specifically for military needs, sealed , shockproof, work in difficult weather conditions, these stations will significantly increase the combat effectiveness of our defenders, the espresso tv channel, together with

the forpot tua charitable foundation, launched a new fundraising for the purchase of powerful portable battery stations with solar panels for our soldiers, we will hand over the first five stations to the 406th separate artillery brigade named after general khorunzhy oleksiy almazov , join the gathering, let's bring victory together glory to ukraine, no matter what ukrainians think about, no matter what they didn't talk about the first place , the war still comes out, the war is our victory, seven days a week, from monday to sunday, seven different spheres of human activity, sports, culture,

politics, eight presenters of express, journalists experts opinion leaders in real time about the most relevant events through the prism of war every day author's projects on espresso greetings usual time usual tv channel well, i'm yuriy fizar - this means that on the air of the espresso tv channel the program world during the war, a program that comes out every monday at 12:00: 13 and in the program in which i and my guest experts discuss issues that i personally and i think that ivan discusses issues that i personally think are sometimes difficult for you to understand , that is why i ask the experts questions they they answer and explain everything to us clearly, that's what i'll do. and today with my guests, well, at the beginning i want to say that today will be a very specific program, since there are three weeks until, unfortunately, i don't want to use this word, but i have to on the anniversary of the full-scale invasion of the russian moscow occupation forces on the territory of ukraine, and today i, with the experts who will join me on skype , want to discuss the three components of this

, actually, not even this invasion, but how we respond to this invasion of the military the economic component and the political component, all about it today in the program. but as i always do at the beginning, i want to remind everyone who watches us on youtube. please go to the channel that was created specifically for this program. the world during the war, and there we arranged for you survey, today's question is: will iran stop after the shelling that happened on saturday evening, giving russia drones, three options for answers, as always, yes, no, or your option, your option, you will be able to see only after the program will be aired and youtube will somehow publish it, so now there are already 26 votes and as far as i understand, so far i do not understand how to tell you who is voting, now

load the internet, i will tell you for sure in one word, there are 26 votes, vote continue to vote and us 264 people are watching right now, only on this channel, which is specially for our program, you can also watch it on the general tv channel, e-e, the channel in the espresso youtube channel, so watch and be sure to put your preferences if i really hope you will like the program. i really hope that you don’t like it. if you don’t like it unexpectedly, write comments. it is important for us, we want to know your opinion and it is important for the promotion of the program in this youtube algorithm, which is difficult for me . well, i am ready to introduce my first guest and with him, i will talk about the military component of the russian invasion of ukraine . so i am joined by oleksiy melnyk

, co-director of foreign policy and international security programs, coordinator of international projects of the razumkova center, mr. oleksiy slava to ukraine, thank you for joining. glory to the heroes, thank you for the invitation, mr. oleksiy. well, what's wrong with you? obviously, as a professional military expert in the military industry, i will discuss exactly this military component . let's start with the information that appeared. therefore, during the past week, i read it very often on the internet . you could find it about the possibility, even the impossibility, but in fact about the fact that russia is preparing to intensify its military operations on the territory of ukraine, that is, they are preparing a new a big offensive that they want to correct, well, at least according to the information i read from my sister, that they want to correct all the mistakes that they have made. for a year now

, mr. oleksiy, can this be true? and if this is so true, what should we prepare for , there is really every reason to believe that uh, russia is preparing for a serious escalation , at the moment it is uh, it is not known whether it will be a single direction of this offensive, or whether russia will at the same time try to uh, carry out at least the main offensive in one of the directions and several such or distracting or er active strikes in support of the main most likely is now being considered is the eastern, that is, er political task that putin set before his military leadership appointed to be responsible for the science operation

, so to speak, a special operation in ukraine, this is first of all an exit to the administrative borders of luhansk to the region that is why this direction is considered the most threatening, and at the same time, we are also observing an aggravation currently localized in the southern direction in ugledar district well, the belarusian direction, which probability of an attack is considered to be urban, still cannot be ruled out that the russians will either make a mistake or they can communicate there often in advance , at least some more or less significant strike group, that is, all the signs are so that to draw such conclusions is well, but it will be really large-scale for us

, we need to be very prepared for this . of last year, is it still worth preparing for a stronger attack, there are two points, the first is that you cannot underestimate the enemy , the russians are learning. and to the use of certain types of weapons that they have, the use of the advantages that they have, they also, according to the reports of our military , quite skillfully sometimes adopt our experience

, that is, the authorities should not be underestimated, but what you said about weakness is, on the one hand, it can be considered as their shortcomings , on the other hand, it is that factor that is difficult to calculate because, when they made one of the other mistakes, they allowed strategic miscalculations from the very beginning of the adoption the decision to attack ukraine, italy, e.e., to carry out certain operations on different areas of the front, it cannot be ruled out that at a certain moment they will again take those steps, which in our opinion are not considered completely illogical, but from this the danger of such steps in the city is less, it is clear, oleksiy, let's talk about the leopards that scholz released and who i hope will be released in the near future, uh, the governments of many other european countries, look

for me . from what i understand, they give about 100 leopards and 31 abrams, we are not exaggerating our joy when we say hooray, they give us finally these tanks, what can these 130 and foreign tanks really do on the front line which has seriously stretched. i have seen some calculations that indicate that the number of such tanks can reach more than three hundred. that is, it is from, let's say for today, from somewhere around a hundred of which have already been confirmed to the probability that the actual supply will be three times more . of course

it won't happen tomorrow it will be stretched out in time the flags are there in general the history is such that they can come somewhere at the end of the year ago of course this is very positive news but it seems to me that we are already so experienced that as you say no hm shout hurrah that this is finally a turning point, i.e. we have quite a few even those who are not specialists there, narrow profile experts . we have some partial victories, that's why, on the one hand, this is really very important news, a very important stage in the very approaches to the supply of weapons to ukraine

. that is, this is a red line that was delivered by the kremlin, it is western partners, but as we can see, it has been overcome and currently nothing like that there is no need to say that now some consequences may be worse from this than someone would have hoped eh yes, this is technologically of a completely different level of technology it is also necessary to understand that the technological advantages provided by the actual eh machine itself they must be supplemented by eh training of the crew before that there are also such estimates that due to the high qualification of the crew, it is possible, figuratively speaking, to increase the hm effect from those tanks by about 30%, that is

, if so, simply put, there are 100 tanks, but if on each of them there will be trained crews and the management system of this entire defense. let's say that the capacity will be at the highest level, then they can be the least embarrassed to control the effect of 130 tanks . that is, it adds 30% to the efficiency . equipment from soviet-made equipment is that they are extremely seriously equipped, not only , say, with a gun there or armor that protects the machine itself and the crew, but also they

allow the integration of each machine in the general system, including giving information about mykola boi. everyone is there in each specific crew. that is, it is really significant not only the quantitative but also the qualitative advantage gained in ukraine, well, this is really our victory, mr. oleksiivna, but look at us. this is how you say somewhere approximately we can get 300 tanks, we have crossed this rubicon and in your opinion, we have crossed the rubicon and everything will stop there, or after that we can expect the delivery of some more well, maybe not tanks, but maybe some very serious ones armaments uh, it really is, as you correctly said, rubicon, because we remember how heated the discussions were, sometimes they went beyond uh, some traditional diplomatic rules, when, for example, poland

tried to provoke germany somewhere, when in the end a rather unexpected decision was made about the supply of tanks by the united states. that is, all this is evidence . how difficult was this decision for our partners , but they managed to do the following, which is now being talked about a lot, well, at least two names - these are long range missiles which will allow the destruction of critical targets at an operational depth in the russian metal, and this is the supply of aircraft, each of these stages is important in its own way, but it is unlikely that this can give grounds to say what, for example, as soon as the planes leave, then the fate of the embrace is already decided

although the general trends, of course , they have already emerged somewhere at least six months ago, i.e. back a while ago. but, as you can see, it is not easy for everyone at such a stage. to put to you considering the fact that in addition to the fact that you are a professional military officer, you turned out to be a professional military pilot . and please tell me purely hypothetically, although i really hope that this hypothetical will turn into reality if the americans give us an f16, how difficult will it be for ukrainian pilots to relearn how to fly these planes, that is, how it can take a long time. if so , to describe it in a very general way, the real terms are somewhere around 6 months, nothing difficult for a pilot who has experience, a certain number of

flight hours on any aircraft, especially if, for example, he operated a mig-29 or su-27 before that, that is, these machines , in principle, require the same qualities, those at the same level of training, that is, there will be a pilot who has 300-500 flying hours. this is not a problem, but uh, i would also like to explain that it is not only about making a hawthorn landing, and for example aerobatic figures because this complex is much wider because it is like an individual individual and preparation for combat use of this plane as well

registering them in a group and again integrating this aviation capability into general tactics. that is, it is quite a wide complex, but it does not mean that it should be done one after the other, that is, these things can be done in parallel, as well as the preparation of the technical staff and maintenance of these aircraft, preparation of the base itself for their operation , preparation under the control group of e-e aircraft and e, in the end, if we well, i think it is quite optimistic to talk about six months , because now there is no solution for this, but what is the added value of everything, why do we do things like the speed is high, precisely because of the importance of the aviation component, well, literally, one simple example if the heimers . as we know, today it is, well, an extremely

effective weapon. to, for example, move the himers installation, that is, from a combat position from which it can make a strike at 80 km , and it takes, for example, an hour, yes, 60 km , the speed of the aircraft is like 16, even the minimum, or 600 km/h, then somewhere more, if it will be supersonic speed, then it can be three times higher, that is, a shot at the same range. i am not talking about anything else, that it not only works on the ground, but it can also destroy air or targets, it can destroy radio location stations, enemy air defenses . that is, it is extraordinary. well, this is a completely different level of maneuver that is given in to our military group, i want to draw a conclusion from what you said. may god give them to us. yes, in the end , and any weapon that we need in order

to overcome the enemy, defeat him and throw him back to where he should be on his territory. thank you thank you, mr. oleksiy, for participating in the program today . thank you for your expert answers. this was oleksiy melnyk , co-director of foreign policy and international security programs, coordinator of international projects of the center. you voted on youtube, those who watch on youtube voted and put likes , dislikes or commented like this , we already have 152 votes on youtube, unfortunately on this computer i can't tell you how many votes for whom if my editor, my charming editor, tells me, i will tell you, but it is not important from your point of view. the main thing is that you will be able to see it. well, i am ready to introduce my next guest, ivan uz , chief consultant of the national institute of strategic studies, candidate of economic

sciences, mr. ivan slava to ukraine i congratulate you and thank you for joining. i congratulate you, mr. yuriy , to all tv viewers, mr. ivan. well, what about you , obviously, about the economy, and almost a year has passed , and unfortunately, there are three weeks left , again, until this anniversary in quotes, the anniversary is not i want to call it that, but what are you going to do? and this full-scale invasion, there were a lot of sanctions packages, nine out of ten are being prepared. ivan is a professional economist. in 2021, it was in general, that's why it was not so easy to knock it down, at least those 9 sanctions, the nine packages of sanctions that we have now, they remind me of the chinese strategy of a thousand

shallow incisions, that is, hardly one of them will lead to the fact that the economy of the russian federation will collapse at the same time as this effect accumulates. and we see that with each package of sanctions, the pressure on russia is becoming greater and greater. this is the point where we are at the end of the first month of the current year. i will remind you that in a week there will already be the next sanctions regarding russian petroleum products at the end of december were sanctions against oil for the russian federation, if you take its entire economy, it is just one figure, the export of hydrocarbons in 2021 gave it 46% of foreign exchange revenue and the blow is almost to this half. and if we add goods that, according to russian statistical data, are classified as unspecified goods, and there

are 20%, and this is most likely oil and gas, then we understand that two-thirds of the russian economy is now from the end of december, or let's say on the 1st of december, they are already under attack, and all this leads to the fact that the indicators of the russian economy are getting worse and worse and worse, and already russian experts on russian television are expressing the opinion that most likely this national welfare fund that is in russia will not be enough to by the end of 2023, what you said is very , very good, but please tell me, is it possible to put russia on the shoulders with these sanctions, or it won’t work on the shoulders, but very strongly , at least, sorry, you can be nasty, you know, it’s very difficult for me to imagine that it would be possible to put and on the shoulder blades, nevertheless, these are really the eyes, as i mentioned, the tactics of small incisions, they are given little by little, and maybe we

don’t see them. yes, this is the effect. but nevertheless, here are certain components, certain components are there when we see what, for example, here is another number that appeared literally last week, the fact that the russian federation is now forced to change its budget expenditures, and now the optimization of the redirection of funds leads to , among other things, that, for example, hospitals in the villages of russia for the current year receive 32% less funds for the purchase of drugs, i.e. imagine that this is when the hospital actually reduces the possibility of obtaining medicines by a third, that is , a hospital without medicines is something so terrible , nevertheless. but this situation is now real , so that two thirds remain, but the dynamic we all see that the russian economy is gradually getting more

and more problems and they will accumulate , so uh, again, new sanctions will be introduced. but we understand that any package of sanctions complicates the normal economic life of russia and , most importantly, it deprives it of its future, and when a country is deprived of its future, it leads to the fact that people leave it, as the third quarter of last year showed people who left in the year of the so-called partial mobilization, they left with money, so the withdrawal of money from russia in the third quarter of last year was 26 times more than in the third quarter of 2021. this is a very powerful indicator that actually demonstrates that they are fleeing from russia and what will happen when there is no money, i would like to see what will happen when there is no money, ivan, before i ask you the next question to our viewers, i want to say that the charming lady editor told me that the question which we

put on youtube whether iran will stop giving drones to russia after the shelling, so 60, how many 60 tell me, well, 61%, and they say that it will not stop. well, to be honest, i voted the same way. ivan, look. now let's move on to europe, sanctions and europe er, repeatedly some letters from some european countries complain a lot about the fact that sanctions do not harm russia, but in general they harm europe, this is true. and because sanctions they cannot let's say harm one country and not harm others, but it is possible to reduce the effect of these sanctions. and what did europe do during 2022? despite its statements that it cannot get rid of its dependence on russian hydrocarbons , it began to diversify this process, and one discovered that it could do it was the agreement by azerbaijan that azerbaijan

would increase the supply of natural gas from eight million cubic meters to twenty, and the agreement with the state of the boat projects with algeria from nigeria, norway, which finds connections to the eu, the states of america, which in general have become it is the largest supplier of gas to the eu. that is, it turned out that the european union in 2022 de-diversified the sources of hydrocarbon supply, primarily natural gas, and now it is what russia used to earn and the main ones can no longer earn, that is, russia is europe. so it suffered, but it found options how to minimize your problem how to find these sources we all remember these crazy gas prices in europe they were really very high but what we have now you know i compared the peak values ​​of gas prices in

europe at prices at the beginning of 2023. so it happened to me that the price fell somewhere. imagine, if you take the average for the month, in august, gas in europe cost twice as much as in january. that is, we see how europe found ways out of the situation, diversified and now europe has gas from russia. there are no funds that it previously earned in europe, that is , the economic effect of this whole game of russia , that is, mr. ivan, did i understand correctly that if we talk about the complaints of certain european leaders, let's say it directly, for example of the prime minister of hungary, viktor orbán, on how his poor hungary suffers from these sanctions. these are more political statements than reality. there are

definitely some negative consequences of the sanctions for hungary. european in exchange for the fact that he will give up his clearly pro-russian policy , because we understand that hungary is currently not the only eu country that is now considered once again as an ally of russia, while others increasingly distanced from the eu, this is partly due to the european union. those who still live in these realities that existed until, let's say, 2022, when there really was dependence on russia, and they do not notice that exactly what the eu did was reduce this dependence, and the more politicians in europe understand that this dependence there is no all the more daring steps they are taking as an example of that, remember germany’s statement at the beginning of the war, they didn’t want to give anything at all there at most fairy tales, now it’s the same for the politicians, they still let’s say this, they say they won’t