[000:00:00;00] no, this is help to the armed forces of ukraine, and i am very grateful to my colleagues for supporting me in this. the war caught me at home in irpen . the alarming suitcase was packed, but that did not reduce the excitement . explosions are happening every minute. irpenya was thrown by my relatives for a month and in the end i ended up in lviv, returned to the airwaves and started volunteering together with my colleagues on our military, now for part of our lives we assemble drones and weave thermal imagers grids, and on the weekend we are going to prepare vitamin teas for our defenders at the front, we all cut fruits together, we clean berries, we beat everything and pack it , it is always very gratifying to think that in a few

days this tea will warm ukrainian soldiers . each of you can help, even a small contribution to support the troops saves the lives of our soldiers and our victory is approaching andrii yanivskyi with news of the economy on the espresso tv channel at eight in the morning on weekdays from 11:00 p.m. and when it is convenient for you, watch on youtube and now there may be a broadcast in a few hours after it will be a separate file on youtube, you can leave your comments, discuss in the comments, if your words are relevant to the case, i will definitely answer them . today we have a big conversation with vitaly vavryshchuk, who heads the department of macroeconomic research of the icu investment group

, mr. italy, welcome to vitaya andrii so, with the title of your position, let's talk about macroeconomics, that is, about the big economy, about the movement of big money and not only money about the workforce, but let's start with what you expected a year ago. i understand that when you gave forecasts for the year 2022, they had no idea that such a big war, a big invasion was possible, were there any pessimistic forecasts that maybe you hid from the general public but meant , i can confirm that there really were no such expectations, not even in the basic pessimistic scenario and no one actually had such expectations, i refreshed my memory and looked at the forecasts given by the most respected international

global investment companies and forecasting organizations and looked at about 20 organizations, none of them expected a drop in ukrainian gdp in 2022, these are forecasts as of january 21 , that is, a month before the start of the great war, and even in the negative scenario, there was a lot of talk about the possibility of an escalation of the conflict, and in the eastern regions about a possible takeover of russia individual regions, but i don't remember that at least some organization or investment bank directly spoke about the possibility of such a war as a-a realistic scenario in fact how we

ended this year er last year what a minus we have preliminary gdp data from the ministry of economy and our government officials say that gdp has decreased by approximately 30%. you need to understand that these are very approximate estimates, because there is a large element of such statistical estimates for calculations, because many enterprises simply do not submit information to the state statistics committee, but you can roughly say that the economy has shrunk by about a third, well, taking into account the fact that in our about 20% of the territory is occupied well, they are automatically

how could it be that the expectations at the beginning of a full-scale invasion were worse. let's try to reconstruct how everything happened, from my side, ordinary citizens. it seemed to me that everything just stopped, so all the shops were closed , even in the west of ukraine, where it is safer, many shop owners closed them and there were inscriptions everywhere rent or simply closed, e.e. blinds , the only thing that worked but these are grocery supermarkets and everything was there and the banking system, how is it not strange and luckily it worked, you could pay with a card well and you can still honor it. how did you see the numbers from the economist's point of view, did you see in different sectors of the economy what was happening, how the country reacted to the full-scale invasion. if we talk about the first months after the beginning of the great war, then i can say that there was indeed a feeling in the economy that can be called the feeling is that uh, the feeling of free fall is what we

all went through in our personal lives, but this can be extended to the economy. in general, we understood that the economy a-ah well, the last one close to collapse, the economy falls but we they did not understand when this fall would stop, one could only make guesses, there was no information on the basis of which one could make estimates about the scale of economic losses , such and such, the first small portions of some more or less reliable information began to appear only in may and april and we and the economy of the panel fell, we did not understand where will we stop now , looking back retrospectively, having the first data from the e-e statistics committee, we understand that the economy fell by approximately 50% in march and

april - these are the months when they were the most fierce military actions , including in the northern regions near kyiv, but the situation began to rapidly change for the better when the ukrainian army was able to knock out the russians from the north of the kyiv region and the chernihiv region, and so on. and then not only was the territory liberated, but there was a feeling that the war creates less security for other regions, but before the large-scale shelling of energy infrastructure facilities in october , and in principle the situation was relatively calm

. the words of one of the founders of novaya poshta that in the first days of the full-scale invasion, they were ready to simply close the business, a huge innovative business, but they simply did not see the prospects. and now we see that they are already exporting their business in a european country, opening a post office there and they even created their own airline, which was not directly impressed. last week, literally, about this, something happened in the meantime, once the business began to adapt, so you say that the territories were freed, but this gave some hope more security was given to those regions where there were not even hostilities, they saw that it is unlikely that these russians will come to them on tanks, it is about may, april, what months and what began to recover first of all, is it small

business or big business, in fact, many factors worked here and the factor, of course, the primary factor is the liberation of the northern regions, it is the improvement of the security situation, but also, in addition , displaced persons began to return, of course, we are not talking about those areas where hostilities are still going on, but many displaced persons after all, those who fled at any cost in the first months of the war returned home, then the business realized that the banking sector was working properly and the banking sector continued to support business in particular due to the fact that there were government support programs and in general there was less uncertainty, we all understand that and now we live in conditions of hmm

unprecedented uncertainty, but compared to what happened in march and april, this is such a significant improvement in the business situation, it is very important to have some kind of picture at least for the next six months or 12 months and now we we can say that although with a large margin of error, we can make such macroeconomic forecasts both at the level of individual sectors and at the level of individual companies. either in march or in april, it was not possible, so we will talk about forecasts at the very end. i also wanted to list some challenges and separately analyze those that arose during the past year well, maybe they have consequences and today the first such large-scale challenge was the fuel shortage, the russians began to shell our oil depots, they began to shell our oil refineries and it turned out that it is quite difficult to provide fuel, er, not only er, civilian transport, okay, there, civilians can somehow, well

, switch to public and even military ones , but we somehow got out of this situation and adapted, how did we manage to do it with destroyed factories and oil depots, in fact , it was completely rearranged this is a retail business of fuel delivery and sale, and we understand from the largest retail chains that we have information that they work practically from wheels , that is, they import, make deliveries and immediately are sold in parts and this is currently the only possible way to saturate the domestic market with fuel, of course there is a side effect - it is a significantly higher cost of fuel for the end consumer and this has its own contribution, including inflation, but on the other hand, we understand that this is a fairly reliable method and we we can see that

even the latest shelling of infrastructure objects, interruptions in the supply of electricity, they did not affect the saturation of the market with fuel. that is, we can say that business has found such a reliable enough way to hold the market saturated well, the government also contributed to this because in the first days they abolished excise taxes on fuel, which made it affordable even during the price increase, and then they gradually began to return it. i do not know whether they have already finally returned it to the military level. business and regulation together although many criticized the government for the fact that in the first days they controlled prices administratively, which also contributed to the deficit , that is, not only russia and the russian e-e attacks, but also e-e such decisions of the government from this very

said a good example of such an ideal of cooperation between business and the government, a very quick solution was found, maybe not in one day, but in a few weeks , a solution was found that you are working on until now . that is, this is a good example that can be set as a model. the second challenge that can be mentioned is the problem with the export of our grain and not only the grain of metal ore by sea, and in fact this led to global consequences all over the world, even the world food organization said that there is a threat of er, well, if not famine, then at least an increase in the price of er food in asian countries in african countries, and the entire organization of the united nations joined in to solve this issue, of course we have to thank the president of turkey

, erdogan, for speaking like this to the interlocutors in this process and unblocking grain exports from ukraine. did we succeed? restore it to the full extent before the events of february 24, 2022 well, what happens to other experts' positions because it is clear from the grain of the food security of the world is important here the world is connected but to protect our exporters of metals, ores and other goods, well, no one is in a hurry, the grain corridor really became to some extent a lifeline for the ukrainian economy, and as soon as it started working, it was very noticeable from the plants that the foreign exchange revenue in country and the imbalances decreased on the interbank foreign exchange market well, in the end

what is most important is that grain and oilseed producers finally began to receive some income for the manufactured products and without income without selling the products in last year's almost it is impossible to start a new seed company, therefore it is difficult to overestimate the importance of the grain corridor and it really helped to solve many problems or mitigate many problems , but you really correctly noted that this initiative applies exclusively to the export of agricultural products, unfortunately, it does not apply to other, uh, key products of ukrainian exports for metallurgy products, for iron ore, and all this has to be exported essentially by land routes, and the capacity of

railways or road transport it is many times inferior to sea transport, and problems with export logistics remain one of the key problems with which the ukrainian economy lives today . the single most powerful factor that would help to significantly change the economic situation, but let's be realistic about the chances that russia will allow the expansion of goods that fall under the influence of this maritime corridor, they are today minimal but russia no longer has the same influence as before on these export deliveries , at least the russians have already repeatedly said

that it is necessary to stop the supply of even grain from ukraine, nevertheless the world said that with your consent or without your consent and in november, the grain corridor was extended, isn’t it possible to do the same ? well, as they say to the military authorities, just start exporting metal, what can they do with it, don’t we need the consent of the same erdogan, for example, because because of the bosphorus will still have to be passed by any ships that deliver agricultural products or any other goods must have security guarantees, and today such guarantees apply only to those ships that deliver agricultural products in particular, is it possible or are there any

political prerequisites for expanding this initiative? and it is difficult for me to say, eh. my opinion is that , again, the chances are minimal, but this does not mean that there is no need to try to raise this issue regularly, well, russia tried to bargain regarding your ammonia through the ammonia pipeline, i understand that it was proposed to somehow exchange the export of russian ammonia and chemicals through odessa and that we could also metals, but i do not see that ukrainian society is ready for this and it is possible and correct somehow it is strange to fight with a country to allow their e -e chemical products to be exported from our territory where we already have obligations . of course, there are oil, gas and transit pipelines and contracts that we signed a long time ago and

we have obligations here not only to supplier, but also to those who buy these naftogaz, here we have to be consistent , of course, but it would be wrong to open up new economic opportunities for russia , especially since the export of ammonia is essentially the export of energy carriers, and since ukraine insists that the consumption of russian energy carriers should be limited in everything the world, to allow the export, even to facilitate the export of russian ammonia - this, of course, is completely unacceptable from the position of ukraine and looked very strange. more e these are russia's missile attacks on the energy infrastructure, your colleagues from m.m. economists from sens bank oleksiy blinov calculated the economic impact it had and according to their calculations, about 12% of our productive time was stolen by

blackouts last year in various months, they reached 20-30 percent in different ways, even when you couldn’t work simply because of a power outage, they counted on their atm network, they have 500 atms in all regions, so they saw when the light turns on and turns off. maybe you have your calculations, how did these missile attacks affect the economy of ukraine? this is quite a macro effect, as they say, did it affect the gdp? in fact, the big question here is how regularly electricity was received by the most enterprises. this is very difficult to follow, that is, the evaluations of colleagues are really quite interesting . and they inspire confidence, but still there is a lack of information about how

long the largest enterprise was, industrial enterprises were disconnected from electricity, and many of them have a macro effect , there is certainly little here, there is no doubt and we this can be seen from preliminary estimates of gdp in the fourth quarter for the third quarter of the ministry of economy estimates the drop in real gdp by approximately 30-31%, already in the fourth quarter this drop has increased, it may be 35-36%. in part, there was a factor of low impact on agriculture, but to a greater extent, it is a factor of blackouts. that is, we can say that it is several percentage points of gdp

that we must complete. year, but we are 2022 disassembled in fact and now it is clear how the war affected the economy of ukraine vitaly vavryshchuk, head of the department of macroeconomic research of the icu group, was on the air of the espresso tv channel . i am andriy yanivskyi, the host of economic news . see you tomorrow at 8 in the morning, together we will win, cinema, television , lord, music, education, the free have a choice choose what you want on megogo art in the country of war , a series of documentaries, each of which will tell about one of the ukrainian artists

, artists who did not go abroad and continue their creative path in ukraine, it seems that history just entered now, and at some such moment, where everything just came together in a linear way, that 's what happened there that we remember then, there was a kind of drag, and it's like it's all here now in one moment and we see that well , everything repeats itself, but how the place and meaning of the artist and his work change. in a country at war, see in the new tv series from the studio doknotfilm and the association babylon 13 art in a country at war from january 16 on weekdays from monday to friday at 11:10 on espresso, we continue our broadcast and yehor checherenda khrystyna yaskivna espresso is eight 22 on

the clock, tuesday, january 31, and now we will talk. us, oleksandria yakovlev is in touch, there is p oleksandr well, let's start with that. we congratulate you this morning. how are you doing, and let's start with what is going on in kherson oblast. we searched along the right bank of the e dnipro about the dnipro, well, the dnipro means the kherson oblast, the dnipro oblast, and so they report loud explosions in skadovsk, as well as the arrival of russian positions in oleshka and the dnipro oblast. what do you know ? please tell me what is happening there. good morning. yes, yesterday morning there was a hit on ammunition

warehouses in the village of ulyanivka , this is skadovskoe, this is the skadovska community 10 km from skadovsk. practiced in the warehouses well, they write that during the last day, the ukrainian defenders practiced well, hit the positions of the russians in the skadovsky district , point-to-point landings were recorded in the bare port of olezhka, and the dniproans damaged enemy facilities on the left bank of the dnipro in the kherson region, as confirmed by pro-russian sources for information about the resource controlled by the enemy, mainly in skadovsk, the russian invaders were covered in the cultural center in oleshki, as well as in some such settlements as dnipro and krynyk and what is happening now with the local population in these settlements, are there a lot of people left as a mass of people, those who are really local, there are not so many left

, more than half of them have left. but where are there a lot of people today ? a large number of so-called e-e immigrants there and the military of the russian federation, therefore, in principle, life can be said to be actively continuing. that is, almost the majority of shops are open, although everything is complicated there, it is clear that it is not a ruble zone, that is, for those who continues to receive a salary in hryvnias there or has income in hryvnias, it is also complicated for them, as regards these settlements themselves. that is, there is ulyanivka . as far as i know, after the explosion , people from all the cultural centers were gathered there , not about the formation there or the interrogation of someone they took it away, but as far as i know, they released it later, so the occupiers should know that

no matter where they place their weapons , there will be exercise of our defense forces everywhere. the russians themselves carried out non-selective shelling of residential buildings in kakhovka. is this a frequent phenomenon of shelling of kakhovka by russians occupying kakhovka ? i can’t say here, uh, i know what, specifically, what about the skadov community, then it was a practice of the defense force and it was non-residential quarters. this was the so-called industrial zone, the territory of the farm, oleksandr, just yesterday , you refuted the information that

the medical equipment of the central hospital was stolen in skadovsk. well, i would i immediately wanted to provide information to our viewers that this is, unfortunately, such a common practice of the deoccupiers - that they can export the prices , they export them and use them for their own purposes, but in skadovsk they allegedly left some facilities, we have information about whether civilians have access to all these medical devices and of medical care , did the occupiers leave the skadovsk e-e hospital at their disposal for their purely military needs e-e, the hospital e-e is partially equipped to receive military personnel, they have e-e whole department and our doctors are not allowed there, they have their own staff there, and our hospital is actually full now

, because the patients from kakhovka and the rest were evacuated there and today. which is trying to work means providing the necessary services, although it is clear that the number of these services is limited because there are not enough doctors and it is also limited by the availability of drugs for treatment. because the drugs supplied by the occupiers are not in sufficient quantity and are not qualities that our doctors are used to using, mr. oleksandr, you mentioned the so-called ruble zone . tell me how it works, that is, there are some bank branches in the occupied territories of russian banks, and where are the cash rubles imported from, and are electronic payments made there, or can you pay with bank cards, please?

from the first of january it is forbidden there by their decree to circulate the hryvnia and for the circulation of the hryvnia there may be punishment for entrepreneurs who sell for hryvnias therefore, now the hryvnia has a minimum circulation, it can be officially handed over to the branch of the local bank, i don’t know its name, which works, including in skadovsk , e.e. at the exchange rate of 1-25, it is possible to hand in cash , hryvnias, cashless, it is impossible to go anywhere , but the sale of all sales points is for rubles . they have started to install their terminals and you can pay with cards but these cards , well, there are no people there yet, because it’s a bank there , it doesn’t work quickly, but already, um, this