[000:00:00;00] their e-e international cultural institutions, if we are talking about cultural diplomacy, they know very little about ukraine. and it is very important that our active ones went through the forms of presentations to international organizations to present ukraine and, in particular, seek calls for the exclusion of russia from international organizations, in particular, such as unesco icon a-a because terrorists have no place in such organizations, the conversation olga gonchar , director of the terror museum, e.e. territory of terror , the founder of the museum crisis center , this is where our air with antin also ends, but the espresso broadcast in general continues and it continues with the verdict with serhii rudenko, wait, don't switch. glory to ukraine, this program is the verdict, my name is serhii rudenko. good day and good health

to all. today, january 31, is the 342nd day of the heroic struggle of the ukrainian people against the russian occupiers . in the coming months, russia is preparing for a great an offensive is likely to take place in luhansk region. these are the data of experts of the american institute for the study of war. joe biden said that the united states of america will not supply ukraine f-16 planes and general budanov hopes that in the summer the ukrainian army will already be in crimea, meanwhile, the russian army continues to lose manpower and equipment in ukraine , as of the morning of january 31, russia has already lost 127,500 people in ukraine in the last day alone , the armed forces of ukraine destroyed 850 orks with the beginning of the great war, the russians have already lost in ukraine 321 tanks, 6,378 armored combat vehicles, 2,197 artillery systems, 454

rocket launchers, 221 means of anti-aircraft defense, 293 airplanes, 284 helicopters, 5.41 units of automobile equipment 18 qatari ships 796 cruise missiles 1951 drone 2011 special equipment so the united states of america is still denying ukraine f-16 russia is preparing a major offensive against ukraine or this date promises to return crimea we will talk about this over the next hour i want to introduce today's first guest - this is people's deputy of ukraine , sbu colonel roman kostenko, mr. colonel . good day. good health to you. thank you for joining our broadcast. i wish you good health

. thank you. so, as analysts of the institute predict the study of the war of the united states of america russia is preparing in the near future for a major offensive, as they say, probably in luhansk region, according to the institute's analysts, this is indicated by data coming from both russian and ukrainian and western sources. towards certain symbolism, they can start this offensive at the end of february well , if we are talking specifically about russians, for whom sometimes symbolism and there political stories sometimes trump common sense, then this of course it can be, but here the question is that when the russians began their invasion on february 24, they were counting on a quick blitzkrieg, somewhere they copied

nazi germany at one time, which at one time also used ... large territories, even though the red army troops were there, and at that moment they were defending themselves on uh, well, on large areas of operational spaces, and why did they manage to capture some territory on february 24, not everything they had planned, but they captured it because they also they advanced along the roads and, in principle, quickly traveled along them and, using the same equipment, tried to quickly influence our country by seizing the territory, now they have such a situation after a year of war has passed, defenses have been built, including all the main roads. they are under the control of our artillery it will be very difficult for them to do this if the weather is like it is now, for example, in the south or in the east, when there is mud, in order to advance in such masses, it will not be possible for them to simply go in

a column along the road, first of all, it is impossible because what, uh, i say again, we control them, they will need operational space for this, but still, when such a thing unravels now , the advantage is on the side of the defenders, so i think they are prone to symbolism, but still , they are waiting for the spring company because they understand that already they will not be able to advance in columns like that, that is, there will not be a repeat of february 24, when they could cover 200-300 km there in two days. well , he means from belarus when they were coming from the north. well, through the sumy region , eyewitnesses told me that the column it was about 10 km they entered from kursk oblast through sumy oblast, and then reached konotop, and then reached konotop, if i am not mistaken. of course, it is unlikely that they will suffer heavy losses . if they are such children, you remember that even they entered in large columns

starting from february 24, counting on e. there we will say the tactical level of resistance e-e and these columns e-e. we remember how they were then broken and stood along these fat and already somewhere at probably the end of march ma- at the end of march at the beginning of april they already understood this and even we saw the orders sent to the armed forces of the russian federation that they should not advance in large columns, make small columns and move in small ones, because the armed forces of ukraine were striking them , while they had, well, let's say partially superiority in the air they covered with rotorcraft helicopters they covered with army aviation airplanes uh now they don't have this advantage that's why their entire offensive that he plans will be a tough attack on uh strongly defensive uh against the troops that are standing

already prepared for defense we remember that at that time not all our troops were ready for defense, many units were in points of permanent deployment not deployed and now , as far as i can see, the situation has changed in many directions and now it is already going the troops are deployed in defense in the places of permanent deployment, only and then not in the places permanently, but the reserves are there where they undergo training. of course , they can’t take such a walk as it was on february 24 in the first days, when they got to kakhovka, for example, in 6 hours. without meeting there is practically no resistance, it’s big, it’s practically all the left bank, they came because kakhovka is just uh, well, nova kakhovka it is located on the dnieper and they are already somewhere in the first days, i’m there all the time, there are many relatives, they have already traveled along this route borislav kakhovka which are located on the dnieper river, it was there very quickly, now it is unlikely , yesterday nato secretary general stoltenberg

said that he does not see any signs of russia's preparation for peace talks, he observes the exact opposite, according to him, the russian federation can mobilize another 200,000 people on money for the production of munitions and receives them from the friendly authorities of authoritarian regimes such as keram and the dprk. putin maintains his maximalist goals in ukraine , stoltenberg stressed, when we talk about russia's preparation for a major offensive or an attempt at a major offensive, we always mention that ukraine is preparing for a counteroffensive at least this is what the military leadership of the ukrainian state talked about, but every time we talk about the counteroffensive of the ukrainian army, we rely on the fact that a difficult weapons from the west, the tanks will already arrive in ukraine , but not as quickly as it turned out later, the abrams may arrive

at the end of the 23rd, the beginning of the 24th, and the leopards will also probably be closer to the summer . how much does this delay with heavy equipment change the plans of the ukrainian e of the army and to what extent it gives an advantage for the russians, looking at what plans we are talking about the counteroffensive , in general, this is in the information plane, we see few statements specifically about the counteroffensive from the side of the military and political leadership there because they understand the situation. we remember what the commander-in-chief zaluzhny said about what he needs to carry out a counteroffensive. we remember 300 tanks, the number of bmws there, how many artillery systems there are, and when we talk about the fact that these tanks, machines will be delivered to us there by the summer, we understand. they must be people trained for them, they are well trained, prepared for special

glass and reserves, then well, i think that this changes, in particular , that's why i think that the counteroffensive will be when its holding secondly that the forces and means that we have, they are ready for this, not just to fight against the wall, as they are doing now, we can see it on ugledari, on soledar, there, with great losses, they take 3 km of the front there and put thousands of their soldiers there. it will be expensive, we have to do it at the expense of modern e-e technological weapons . well, you know, i wasn’t talking about the counteroffensive , first of all, we need to talk about it, but more needs to be done. well, in order for it to be possible, but we are talking about a counteroffensive at a time when the enemy is even with those er reserve

forces that he has after they released the forces on er those who stood on the right bank of the dnieper on this plan, as we call it, when they left the right bank and they have now transferred them to the luhansk donetsk direction, they have strengthened the groups in the zaporizhzhia direction and now with these forces they continue to uh, let’s say about breaking our defense in a different way, this will not lead to this, yes , they are suffering heavy losses, but in some directions, they have there is success at the tactical level but they still continue to pass our troops somewhere, and that is why i say once again that our main task now is to stop the enemy before speaking about the counteroffensive, yes , we need to plan forces, resources, means of the place, but we must not forget that we are talking about this when the enemy is still advancing. in small areas but it is coming and everyone's main task now is to stop him and bring down his offensive potential so that he cannot do this, so i think that right now

, right now, we need to talk specifically about defense the nearest time is in order not to give the enemy about its correct construction, the construction of fortifications, the mining of the area, the complete fire system of the organization is correct, and then only talk about the counteroffensive, meanwhile, kremlin propagandists say that the prospect of a breakthrough at the front may be due to the latest weapons which ukraine receives and will receive from the establishment in the telegram of 60 minutes of skabeev and the russian military publicly admit that the victory of russia on the battlefield is under great question about this, in particular, with skabeev and kadyrovets apti allaudinov spoke, he is talking about the fact that the fact that the west provides

heavy weapons to ukraine can end tragically for russia, let's hear it, let's ask for tanks right now from the position of realism, all this seems too dangerous and germany was afraid of germany, now they are sending even more americans to their abrams. in your dream, we plan to win this, first of all, secondly, you personally manage to manage the intensity of supplies yesterday , there were tanks, now there are planes, they are seriously talking about the military contingent, but i'm not calling out to be afraid, but it's just necessary

. are they changing their tactics? the blitzkrieg they were counting on is not succeeding, we are entering a protracted war with the russian federation, russia feels that things will not be so easy for them, uh, at the same time, at the same time yesterday, joe biden's statement was made that uh, the united states of america has not yet are planning to provide ukraine with f16 fighter jets well, we remember in principle before there were decisions to say yes to the parks, we remember when i was in the united states myself and we told every congressman and senator we met that give us tanks they yes yes yes but we understood that it was some kind of distant perspective. now we see that the question is already open , they say and i will say that we say at the end of the 23rd and everything can change it can change it in the spring everything can be changed to another

rammstein i will say that probably abrams tanks it very well, there is a certain amount of the 24th year, i think that we should first of all count on leopard tanks, which are located here , the country that produces them, i mean in europe , the country that produces them is in europe , there are logistics centers in europe, there are also in poland, which is also leopard uses these tanks and they were more appropriate for us. there are many nuances of such technical characteristics , the weight of the tank, the specific capabilities of our bridges, our crossings, our pontoons, where they can pass later. well, that’s all nuances, they say that it would be a modern leopard tank for us, and plus the mass production of it is right there, the logistics of delivering it to the states here, but it is better for them to use it here than there, the same abram tanks, but we really understand that they will still be here very good, but now i think we have to count on the fact that the tanks will come to us in europe and will continue to come

gradually, as for the russians, they talk about victory in the forest, i will say that the threat now lies in the fact that russia remains very resourceful resource ukraine, they have the same thing that we read in yesterday's article, that you commented about uh, that they can also take tanks to north korea, and we know that there are enough of them and ammunition there, we see now that they are going into economic cooperation with iran there is also belarus can provide a moment when the concentration of weapons on the other side can lead to, let's say, well, approximately, or i will say to a kind of first world war , when the accumulation of weapons on one side of the other side will not allow the other side, for example, to conduct serious offensives operations and i am not saying that it will be long, but it can stop the front for a long time

until, for example, we cannot knock out this resource, uh , and then still make an offensive, and if this happens, then i will say that i do not doubt our victories, but due to russia's accumulation of a large amount of equipment there, the war may drag on for longer than we expect. well, mr. colonel, war is mathematics , that is, in any case, there are analysts who can calculate how many and how many of which forces are needed in order to relatively speaking go out on these positions that were during the first world war, that is, western mathematicians and analysts who calculate the possibility of a scenario of the development of events during the russian-ukrainian war, they obviously still agree on the fact that the two sides should come together against each other, have approximately equal forces, but not not to provide any additional preferences over there in ukraine , f16 fighters, long-range missiles, to

allow it to move the front further , and not to prevent the russians from entering the territory of the ukrainian state or at least create some kind of such a zone. they couldn't just come closer than there for 100 or 200 km to the ukrainian-russian border . they asked me like this. well, i'm asking you as a professional person, that is, if war is mathematics with weapons do western analysts calculate this option according to yours and do not add any weapons specifically, let's say so, in order for the conflict to be on the level, well let's say so, no, no fear of one side for the other and vice versa. i don't think lately we see what is going on

a large amount of weapons yes, it is not enough, it will probably soon be concentrated and will be the largest there in europe, because well , we really have a lot of weapons now, but i say this again compared to who we are going to war with , the russians have we even saw open m resources, they have up to 15,000 tanks there, even by cannibalism, they will be able to put them in. i think well, in the worst case , well, 3-5 eh, i think it’s easy because they remove from some tanks even when they don’t have the ability to repair and repair date there were 62 tanks, but they will be. and we are talking about the supply there now of 300 tanks , this is very serious, this is a good weapon, but even simple mathematics about which you say that when we attack the enemy, we carry out a counterattack. it is desirable that the advantage should be both in equipment and in er, live forces there, well, according to the old statutes, one to three attackers can have a well, taking into account the modern equipment there , at least it would be one to one, so that it would be to

attack, but in russia, everything is equal at the moment, more equipment, more shells, and they still have a chance, that's why i'm talking now about the fact that at this stage we should work more seriously with our partners and talk about exactly this mathematics in order for us to liberate our territories . planes well, we are not ready to hand over the f16. i think that on the contrary, it is necessary to show russia now that the west is ready to hand over everything it can in order to show that a democratic country that is fighting for its freedom will use all its resources for this i just want the audience to understand what we have now, well, many people are talking about the war, about victory this year, about the fact that we will leave in the summer and be in the crimea. i don't want to doubt it, but the analysis of all this. i

analyze the russian troops there, i understand what we have forces, means, it will be quite difficult to do it, let's say so, and many say so, but in russia there are mobs, for example, and they are not trained there, i want to say that we should also properly evaluate our armed forces, the heroic armed forces, which at the moment we have 700 000 but of these 700,000 at the beginning of the war, we only had 215, these are regular troops , we do not count losses, all the others are us, too, our heroic mobilized people who defend their ukraine, therefore, the distribution of forces by personnel is approximately we are morally better prepared - prepared people, but we need equipment because this war is primarily equipment and artillery, and in order to talk about a counteroffensive about liberation , we need a serious resource because russia

is constantly accumulating and preparing, including for counteroffensive well, until the next one, and according to our data, they still haven't given up on any of their goals, the first priority is luhansk , donetsk. i think the exit to the borders, then the zaporizhzhia direction, where they can take cover on the left side, well, the dnieper, and i think that their prospects are south. they too stand that's why we have to constantly talk about learning to live in such a regime that we still need to fight in order to prove our right to independence and the right to sovereignty . kyrylo budanov, the head of the main intelligence department of the ministry of defense, said that at the beginning of summer we can go to crimea. he said that it all started in crimea in 2014, and it will end. another statement was made

by the president of croatia about crimea. zoryana milonovych he said that crimea will never be ukrainian with such an unexpected statement, he distinguished himself, and in recent days he compared the crimea annexed by the russians to kosovo . milonovych also said that he does not want his ukraine, the newest member state, to collide with what he called the potentially catastrophic consequences of the 11-month war in ukraine, we will hear milanovich until you understand that serbia and russia are not the same thing, that this is unfortunately a painful fact and a danger, we annexed kosovo, we and the international community took it away from serbia who did it as we did we recognize that kosovo is not annexation but usurpation what is it called withdrawal the same applies to crimea crimea will never be ukraine again this is what

the leading german generals say and what the ukrainian generals say, well bohdanov, we heard that ukrainian colonels say, mr. colonel, how much force is needed , how much time is needed for crimea to become ukrainian again ? the correct policy is that crimea will be ukrainian, i will say that there are many cases in history when even there resource countries lost their war there and their wars and russia , well, russia is resources, we can only remember the first world war in including we we remember this peace of compiègne, i think it was called when germany was in it , almost the entire territory of france was captured. we remember that almost the entire territory of belgium of other european countries, but at the same time they

capitulated that the western countries allies inflicted on them such losses to their economy and they capitulated and germany suffered a serious serious defeat, we also have to work every day, regardless of the fact that it will be in six months or a year, we must do everything so that our lands come to us we came back for this, we need to work hard once again to say now how many concrete resources there will be for this war, this is a battlefield on which it can be at the same time. they were there too and tomorrow they won’t be that’s why otaki counteroffensives otaki intermediate victories only by them you can judge how this or that direction will develop, you can say if we, uh, succeed in carrying out a counteroffensive in the zaporizhzhia

direction and we will be able to break up the groupings on two parts are one thing, we can talk about crimea and then about the left bank of kherson if we can’t do it next year , then the situation can go completely differently, as i said there, for a while, it’s just uh, getting into such a positional war, but it will not mean that we have given up on something. i think that then ukraine will make other ways for deoccupation , including to strengthen its military capabilities about long-range missiles , our pc will reach a new level. therefore, this is all a process and changes every day new water bodies are appearing at the moment the situation is such that we are on the defensive preparing our reserves the enemy is trying to oppose us in the donetsk and zaporizhzhia directions we are ours our heroic defense forces are holding him back and the task from the supreme commander-in -chief to have our reserves

prepared and this it is very important and that russia now understands that time is not in their favor. er, some er, some kind of offensive in order to achieve at least some goal, you understand. if they drag us in, there will be more weapons , they will not be able to do it, so er, it is the task of our partners, they see it as soon as possible to give us the forces that could the first thing for us is to gain a foothold on the occupied borders once again to completely inflict maximum losses on them to maintain our occupied positions and create conditions for our further counteroffensives to liberate kherson oblast and zaporizhzhia and crimea thank you, colonel, for participating in the program

i wish you good health, it was a novel by kostenko, people's deputy of ukraine, colonel of the security service of ukraine, friends, we work live on the espresso tv channel, as well as on our social networks and on youtube, we are on almost all social networks , join our social networks put like this video in order for it to be promoted on youtube and facebook, and read our news on the espresso tv website, we work 24 hours a day, seven days a week, operational information from ukraine and the world is the most operational on our website information about the situation on the russian-ukrainian front further we have friends on the air vladyslav seleznyov military expert colonel of the armed forces of ukraine spokesman of the general staff of the armed forces of ukraine in 2014-2017 colonel good day and good health to you thank you for joining the broadcast slava

glory to the heroes of ukraine so, the president of lithuania , mr. colonel, called on western countries to cross the red line and send fighter jets and long-range missiles to ukraine. of the leaders of the western countries, will fighter jets be provided to ukraine, or will they not be provided yesterday, biden announced that the f-16s will not be provided by the united states of america , the ukrainian army macron did not rule out such a possibility, the prime minister of poland, mateusz marawiecki , said that poland is ready to provide f16a i do not understand that all these statements and all these requests from the ukrainian side for heavy weapons and heavy armament for aircraft and long-range missiles are connected with the expected offensive

of the russian army in the next of a few months. how much do you think the lack of this weaponry can affect the course of the russian-ukrainian war in connection with the expected offensive of the moscow army? well, first of all, we have to understand absolutely clearly about the following combat platform, the f16 fighter is more effective and more efficient than our e - with the help of which we actually changed the course of events on the front. i mean the reactive salvo fire system of the himars class or their analogues, so the f16 combat platform is even more desirable, more effective, more well-hitting and such that there was a lot of pestering putin's army therefore, it is extremely important for us to receive the same fighter jets against the background of the rather contradictory rhetoric of our western partners, i always mention the next fact eh the fact is that for several months in a row pilots