[000:00:00;00] that she will be forced to leave it, this is the reality, politics is over, everything is determined exclusively by force and only force can stop russia and the attempt to recreate the soviet union in its terrible stalinist version. i hope that historical justice and the reluctance of the aggressors will win. thank you, friends, until the next meetings on this air. good luck to you greetings dear viewers on the air of the espresso tv channel program studio event our first guest matthew bryce, former adviser to the secretary of state of the united states

former director of the national security council of the united states for european and eurasian issues. i congratulate you, dear mr. ambassadors. glory to ukraine , we are super heroes. glory to the heroes. an extremely important meeting was held in davos. we understand that rather than anything , a certain synchronization of geopolitical processes took place , which will coincide with the decisions of rammstein , where it will be finalized. the story of the allocation of extremely important weapons to us, mr. ambassador, how do you see the current situation after the meeting in davos and what, in your opinion , could have been public and non-public decisions adopted by henry kissinger, a famous geopolitician who is 99 years old, but has changed his position in particular. he explained that after the victory, ukraine can join nato , first of all, regarding the meeting in rammstein. i think that germany will be under enormous pressure to approve the transfer of leopard tanks that it bought to poland in germany, as well as regarding the transfer

of some german tanks to ukraine by germany itself, in davos everyone said that information was leaking from washington that there would be great pressure from the usa, and we know that great britain has already deprived chancellor scholz of one of his arguments that stood in the way of the transfer of leopards to ukraine, namely that germany did not want to be the first to promise to do so. great britain has already promised to transfer part of its challenges to ukraine. i think that the main result of the meeting in rammstein will be that germany will give in to pressure and agree to transfer to ukraine such leopards as you need. yes, it is late, but thank god it is not too late in ukraine. well, to be ready or to my own offensive, which i i hope it will happen soon or before any russian offensive in the spring about which there are rumors about the statement of henry

kissinger it is amazing when i first read it i thought it must be a mistake or maybe some kind of joke because kissinger has completely changed his position we all know that he spoke about ukraine a few months ago that ukraine should come to terms with the execution of donbas and crimea, this is his typical view, so he really is a politician who believes in brute force, and i think he realized that he had miscalculated on whose on the side of brute force, and it turned out to be on the side of ukraine and its friends, partners and future allies in nato, i fully share the opinion that if ukraine received membership in nato or even an action plan regarding membership in april 2008 and if georgia received an action plan regarding membership, then no invasion russia, anya in georgia in 2008, anya in ukraine in 2014 and 22nd. it would never happen and the last one about the messenger. i always feared that he

would never change his position because he made a fortune thanks to his consulting companies kissinger and partners advising investors specifically on russian issues and helping to attract large investments related to russia, so i think that what we see now is influenced by either his respectable age or the amazing successes of ukraine on the battlefield , as well as the determination demonstrated by your society. he understood that now ukraine is the real strength of ukraine , diplomatic models will work after our victory, and here we are entering an extremely difficult situation, in particular, we are talking about supplying us with heavy armored vehicles, we heard a lot of different plans of promises, so far we have seen the extremely effective position of poland and the extremely effective position of great britain and

the united states. great britain promises to provide us with challenger-2 heavy tanks, although in small quantities so far. so to speak, a finger on the extremely important case , because the main european tank is the leopard-2, i already partially touched on this issue at the beginning, saying that schultz is being treated huge pressure from nato countries, his defense minister and all of germany in rammstein felt what the chancellor felt in davos . i think this pressure will be enough. i believe that germany will agree to the transfer of leopard tanks and other weapons to ukraine. yesterday i was really amazed when i watched news from the world economic forum in davos and heard statements about the constant support of ukraine from european leaders, from whom i did not

expect it, the belgian prime minister , for example, after all, all belgian news they say that we will be with ukraine until the end, the spanish prime minister said the same thing in washington two days ago, the prime minister of the netherlands , marchrutte, had a meeting with president biden a few days ago and also spoke at the atlantic council where i was once a senior researcher and when his asked whether you think that the time may come when the west and europe will not want to supply weapons to ukraine and we will get tired of ukraine, he said that this will not happen, that we must continue and we will continue, because if we do not stop putin now, then his hand will get to us i think olafsholt also understands this but he is having a hard time maintaining political balance within german politics so he is trying to find a way to move forward and now the moment is coming when he has to tell his coalition partners

that we can no longer take the pressure we have to do the right thing things, the green party and its minister of foreign affairs are already advocating for the provision of more weapons to ukraine, and i think that there have been big changes in germany's consciousness, because at the beginning of the war they said that we feel guilty before the russians for some deaths caused by the nazi regime. now, as far as i'm concerned, the debate has changed and the germans realize that if you compare ukrainians and russians , per capita the most suffering caused by the nazis during the second world war was suffered by ukrainians and not by russians, so scholz will not in the strength of greater resistance and we will see the leopards that will arrive in ukraine soon after the meeting in rammstein an extremely important meeting took place between the main

leading generals, the commander behind the alkaline and mark miley, who heads the joint committee of the american staff, the meeting took place in poland, we know very little about the specifics of this meeting, but whatever you think it could mean, it is an amazing symbolic meeting, if not to say . wanting to make it clear that putin should not claim that nato is somehow russia's adversary in this war, this was partly due to fears that putin might escalate the conflict and use nuclear weapons and partly because if it looks like nato is really at war with russia, then putin will have more reason to claim that he had no choice but to invade ukraine, which i'm sure we

'll talk about now. so then, at the beginning of the war, such a meeting between us military leaders between poland and ukraine was truly politically unthinkable, now it is happening and demonstrates that in particular the military leadership of these two large nato countries and ukraine is coordinating their actions operationally and in terms of intelligence exchange. and now in terms of more and more deadly weapons such as himers which have been provided by the usa as patriot leopard systems which hopefully are already on the horizon so this is a very important meeting and it sends a wide range of political signals the biggest of which is that yes putin you have decided to go to war with nato is that you did and what is happening now, we in nato are not going to declare an amen, but we are going to make you suffer and guarantee that your military will not defeat the ukrainians, that is, as far as i

understand, the united states has already stopped being afraid of the so-called nuclear war, we understand that in any incomprehensible situation , putin, either personally or with the help of medvedev or patrushev or some of his representatives , began to voice the scenarios of the so-called nuclear armageddon, hinting that it could happen and, accordingly, something must have happened either in the consciousness of the united states or in the united states the states in washington learned some extremely important points because there is a feeling that america is already ready to cross the so -called russian red lines because russia has crossed any red lines in established both by the geneva conventions and by christianity and just by common sense, washington has repeatedly crossed many of the red lines announced by putin, amen, this was also the case with heimers, now

the patriot system was also other anti-ship missiles provided by great britain, denmark, turkey gave deadly drones without giving up the opportunity to be as an intermediary, all these red lines were violated under putin 's nose, contrary to his nuclear threats that if nato were to be drawn into the conflict, the war would transfer at the nuclear level, this did not happen and will not happen. because putin, in my opinion, received very clear signals from these calls from narendra modi from washington and from the head of the czar bill burns, for whom i worked for many years in the state department, ambassador burns, former ambassador to moscow. as far as i understand very clearly made it clear that if putin proceeds to nuclear escalation by detonating at least one symbolic warhead on the battlefield , there will be an intense human response from the united states that will destroy the russian military on the territory

of ukraine, and therefore i think that the answer washington as well as china, india and all nato allies made it clear to putin that there is no point in nuclear escalation, because it will only accelerate the complete defeat of the russian military on the battlefield in ukraine, what will happen in the future , who knows. i mean that putin likes to say that if a russian ship sinks , then he can pull the whole world behind him, but this is completely irrational, and president putin is not rational. he very carefully lists all his steps, he tries to cause ukraine and europe more pain than those are ready to endure, but he will never succeed because ukraine will never surrender and he will never have a reason to use nuclear weapons because russian territory

will never be under threat . we understand that this is a completely logical and normal formula and it is generally accepted by probably the entire western civilization, but there is one extremely important point: russia does not recognize not only the peace formulas, but russia is not ready so to speak, to conduct one or another completely understandable negotiations, in particular, it is about the withdrawal of its occupation contingents, as we have repeatedly said , military strategies agree with us, war is the same policy, only by other means of war , they end with a certain political result or continue, that is, military force is used for the achievement of political goals so far, putin has not understood his rhetoric about what russia's demands are, because they

were unrealistic from the very beginning, he just wanted to attack ukraine, do you remember what among the initial demands was that nato essentially revoke the entry of eastern european members who joined after the cold war and withdraw their troops. putin knew that the united states would never agree to this, so he used such a political position to justify his military actions, which were then aimed at achieving political goals, namely the liquidation of the sovereignty and independence of ukraine , negotiations took place in march with the mediation of turkey , a compromise supported by ukraine was already on the table , which consisted in the fact that russia withdraws its troops from the territory captured after february 24. ukraine remains neutral and does not join nato, and only in the future will raise this question about the political and

legal status of crimea and donbas. putin used the whole formula because he wanted to use military force to achieve more success on the battlefield in order to strengthen his political position at the negotiations and he lost thanks to the amazing counterattack of ukraine in kharkiv and then in the south in kherson in september, now ukraine is winning and it is clearly impossible a military victory of russia therefore, now the demands of ukraine more aggressive and they all make sense for ukraine but for putin they are still politically unacceptable and if russia accepts ukraine's demands for negotiations it will mean that it is admitting its complete defeat so he will never go for it until he is completely defeated on the battlefield putin is not is ready for real negotiations because he still hopes that if thousands of new unfortunate conscripts are thrown into the furnace of war after

the next phase of mobilization, europe and the united states will sooner or later get tired of supporting ukraine and then, in his opinion, the russian military will again will start to win and then it will be possible to conduct negotiations about his political goals from favorable positions for him, so only when , god forbid, this will happen, but it will not happen, or when putin realizes that he has lost militarily, only then will he go to serious negotiations and i think that this day is already close to the road p ambassadors of china in davos president zelensky's wife olena zelenska delivered a message to xi jinping, in particular , it is about the activation of the people's republic of china in the future, so beijing as far as we understand, he is not eager to support the russian federation, but the question is to what extent he will be ready , so to speak, to limit the variety of help, how

china wants to play, it is difficult to say from the point of view of the harsh reality of the political perspective , china is satisfied that the war will continue for some time. he rhetorically supports russia accusing the united states of expanding nato and justifying russian invasions of ukraine i think that the chinese leadership does not like that ukraine is suffering so much that the russian troops are committing war crimes and we know for sure that he is most worried about the fact that putin can really resort to using nuclear weapons, this is unacceptable for cd-throwing and for china, but until putin has crossed this threshold, i think that xijin-pin has already calculated that the continuation the war is beneficial to china because both the usa and europe are now occupied with ukraine, which affects their economies, but as we saw on the example of the zero covid policy , all the shadow can turn its course by 180°

when something dramatic happens, for example nationwide protests against him and against his code zero policy, the more ukraine succeeds on the battlefield and the stronger the unity of the transatlantic community and its allies in australia and japan remains, the more likely it is that china will begin to withdraw its support for russia and express a desire to switch to the side of those who will win due to the restructuring of geopolitical power and russia can no longer be considered a great power, china will want to take advantage of the new economic opportunities that will appear as a result, everything depends on the victory of ukraine on the battlefield. this is the direction in which events are currently moving , mr. ambassadors. if we are talking about china, we cannot ignore another extremely important player. we are talking about turkey . we

are talking about president rdogan. in communication with the kremlin, and perhaps he is not the only one who succeeds in this. what will be the real non-declarative policy of turkey regarding the russian-ukrainian war? we in nato talk about turkey as a bridge between east and west and this is exactly the role of turkey in relation to russia and ukraine, this ability to be a bridge between east and west is one of the factors that makes turkey so important geostrategically for the transatlantic community cardigan its policy is much more transactional and not collective in terms of his approach to nato is that they support nato and therefore support nato friends, receiving something in return in a transactional way. that is, it resembles the foreign policy of donald trump, although

, unlike trump, erdogan really values ​​nato and appreciates its strategic importance for turkey quality strategic importance of turkey for nato and for those of us who were brought up in nato during the cold war our thinking has always been based around the idea of ​​one for all and all for one we are a community of values ​​we defend democratic and economic freedoms and we must be on the side of what is morally correct agrees with this and nevertheless emphasizes the difficult situation of its neighbors, saying, look at our borders, here is syria, iraq, the south caucasus , and across the black sea, also russia and ukraine and our approach is somewhat different, the turks have been at war with russia like no other since the ottoman empire, we have so many economic relationships. we want to be a valuable mediator, because we are against war, this

position is very similar to the german one, and as we said before, germany was under a lot of pressure for it to change its course and fully support ukraine, however, in the case of turkey, we heard how president zelensky himself welcomed the mediation of president erdogan, in particular during the conclusion of the grain agreement , when putin was also grateful. i think that will come the moment, although not now, when russia will finally be ready for real negotiations and all of nato will welcome the ability of erdogan or any other turkish leader at that moment to be a mediator and therefore to open a dialogue both with ukraine and with russia, i think that is also very good for the alliance that the member states of nato play such an important role and because of this , putin's vile is going over the top, so putin is trying to drive a wedge between turkey and the rest of nato and bring it closer to russia, but he

does not succeed because turkey provided critical military aid to ukraine throughout the war in the form of drones, the bi-rector also rhetorically supported ukraine and was steadfast in consistently condemning russia's invasion of ukraine and also condemning the violation of ukraine's territorial integrity, condemning the occupation and annexation of crimea and calling on ukraine to become a member of nato, not to mention the closure of the turkish straits for russian warships which are not based in the black sea , of course. it would be better if turkey under the leadership of murdogan fully supported all sanctions against russia, but i must say that appreciate the net benefit of supporting turkey, which is obvious. by the way, it is definitely in

the camp of ukraine, but i also see the value in maintaining a line of communication with russia , if it hurts. assessments of what is happening in putin's head, i am not a psychiatrist, i cannot diagnose his next steps , but we can see that he is trying to adhere to his old line, perhaps even stalin's, but the question is to what extent how far and how long he will actually go in this direction. i am also not a psychiatrist. i think that putin’s goals regarding this terrible invasion and aggressive war have changed. now his main goal is probably to survive the physical , political, these are two sides of the same coin, and all this is thanks to the amazing courage and efficiency of the ukrainian military and national determination of the entire population

of ukraine. putin received terrible advice from his special services at the beginning of the war. he thought that he would be able to achieve a quick victory by capturing kyiv and deposing the government. instead, he suffered a complete failures and now he is stuck in this war of attrition which he cannot win and if he cannot win it then the end is near many analysts in washington have started saying and writing that they are considering the possibility that the entire russian federation will collapse but the debate in washington has changed radically before they said something like oh we will not provoke putin to escalate this war and he can use nuclear weapons and then even attack nato territory and now russia will collapse as

a result of this failed war so i think that putin's goal in this war is to survive. to do this, he hopes that if enough russian soldiers are thrown into battle and even if tens of hundreds of thousands die, it will not matter because in the end many ukrainians will die , the economy will suffer, the civilian population will not be able to endure anymore and ukraine will finally capitulates, putin believes that he will find a way to declare victory, but this will not happen thanks to the military victory of ukraine and the solidarity of its friends and allies, we will see that putin will have to adjust his goals and i i miss what he will say in the end. something like ok, we really won, we showed the west that we are not going to just stand by and let them take ukraine from us , we destroyed the nazis, whoever putin thinks they are in ukraine, we rubbed the west's nose and held

some territory that even a tiny piece of ukraine, he would not say passing it off as a victory and then he will go further if he survives and think how to return to ukraine and another way in the future, but he will not succeed because russia will be incredibly weak at the end their fiasco in this war and in the united states and in particular in the nato headquarters they understand what is happening in reality on the territory of russia, in particular it is about the formation of their military groups and what is happening in the kremlin plus or minus they have accurate information i do not have access to secret information which i had before, but judging by the recordings of the conversations of russian soldiers on the battlefield when they call their families or talk to their comrades, i believe that in nato headquarters and in washington there is

a deep understanding of the terrible morale of the russian military that even the wagnerians complain that they are being used as cannon fodder if they take a step back they get a bullet in the back. as in stalin's time , everyone knows this, we constantly hear about it in the media, and based on my previous experience working in the government, there is no doubt that the us and its nato allies know much more about what is happening in the russian army, what is happening inside the kremlin is much more difficult to understand because it is not easy to intercept relevant messages, it is not easy to penetrate the inner circles at the highest levels any government, and even more so the russian one through espionage through agents who can visit and transmit information, but it is definitely easy to understand the

pressure putin is under now, i myself hear from my own environment that now even at the level of ministers in russia, not to mention the oligarchs, there is deep indignation against putin, putin, you have ruined our lives . we will never be able to live like this, we used to live like this. you are destroying the reputation of russia. i constantly hear about this state of affairs from various people, even from heads of state, so i think that there is a deep awareness of how much the problem that putin found himself in is serious. that is why i took such a tough position in this interview, which i already said in response to your previous question. i think that putin's goals have changed and now he just wants to survive. ambassador for this extremely meaningful and interesting conversation, and i want to remind our tv viewers that

matthew bryza, ex-adviser of the secretary of state of the united states, former director of affairs, worked for them on the air of the espresso tv channel europe and eurasia in the national security council of the united states thank you very much igor yakovenko, a sociologist ex-deputy of the state duma, currently on migration, is joining our broadcast. glory to ukraine , mr. igor. i congratulate you as a hero with the word heroes shevchenko. well, the main support of the russian federation urgently went to volgograd for the anniversary of the battle of stalingrad which was urgently renamed to stalingrad, even a bust of stalin was installed there, we understand that it may not have any specific military consequences or any specific decisions that putin will make in connection with but this very clearly outlines putin's stalinist trajectory of vision of the situation and further movement. it seems that

putin is making demands in general. here are such historical parallels. they are actually ridiculous on the one hand, but on the other hand, if they are drawn, they are very unprofitable for putin, because the stalingar battle was really uh, hmm, one of the largest and largest battles in the history of mankind, during this battle, about a million people were killed, or about one of these battles was torn from the side of the soviet union, etc. the countries of the third reich are accused of half a million from each side, and one of putin's henchmen, uh, yevgeny prigozhin allowed himself to make such a preposterous statement that compared to the stalingrad soldier, i don't know if they ask putin or prigozhin questions from volgograd