[000:00:00;00] lack of constructiveness in communication with the kremlin and he is perhaps not the only one who succeeds in this. what will be the real non-declarative policy of turkey regarding the russian-ukrainian war? we in nato talk about turkey as a bridge between east and west, and this is exactly the role of turkey in relation to russia and ukraine, this ability to be a bridge between east and west is one of the factors that makes turkey so important geostrategically for the transatlantic community cardigan, its policy is much more transactional and not collective in terms of from a security point of view, his approach to nato is that they support nato and therefore support nato friends, receiving something in return in a transactional way. that is, it resembles the foreign policy

of donald trump, although unlike trump , erdogan really appreciates nato and appreciates its strategic importance for turkey, what is the strategic importance of turkey for nato and for those of us who grew up in nato during the cold war, our thinking has always been based on the idea of ​​one for all and all for one, we are a community of values, we defend democratic and economic freedom, and we must be on the side of what is morally right, he agrees with this and still emphasizes his difficult situation as a neighbor, saying , look at our borders, here is a series of iraq , the south caucasus, and across the black sea , russia and ukraine, so our approach is somewhat the other turks, like no one else, have been at war with russia since the ottoman empire , we have so many economic relationships. we

want to be a valuable intermediary because we are against war, this position is very similar to the german one and, as we said earlier, to germany there was a lot of pressure for it to change its course and fully support ukraine, however, in the case of turkey, we heard how president zelensky himself welcomed the mediation of president erdoğan, in particular when concluding the grain agreement , measures when putin was also grateful. i think that the moment will come, although not now, when russia will finally will be ready for real negotiations and all of nato will welcome the ability of erdogan or any other turkish leader at that moment to be a mediator and therefore to open a dialogue with both ukraine and russia i think that it is also very good for the alliance that nato member countries play such an important role, and because of this, putin's vichis are going through the roof , so putin is trying to drive a wedge between

turkey and the rest of nato and bring it closer to russia, but he does not succeed because turkey provided ukraine with critically important military aid throughout the war in the form of drones, the bi-rector also rhetorically supported ukraine and was steadfast in consistently condemning russia's invasion of ukraine and also condemned the violation of ukraine's territorial integrity condemns occupation and annexation of crimea and calls on ukraine to become a member of nato not to mention the closure of the turkish straits for russian warships that are not based in that sea of ​​course it would be better if turkey under the leadership of murdogan fully supported all sanctions against russia, but i must say that they appreciate the net benefit of support turkey, which is

obvious in the camp of ukraine, but i also see value in maintaining a line of communication with russia if it hurts . which works in the west does not work, to put it mildly, regarding assessments of what is going on in putin's head, i am not a psychiatrist, i cannot diagnose his next steps, but we see that he is trying to adhere to his old line, maybe still stalin's, but the question is how far and for how long he will go in this direction . i am also not a psychiatrist. i think that putin has changed in relation to this terrible invasion and aggressive war. now his main goal is probably to survive the physical and political. these are two sides

of the same coin, and all this is thanks to the amazing the courage and efficiency of the ukrainian military and the national determination of the entire population of ukraine. putin received terrible advice from his secret services at the beginning of the war. he thought that he would be able to win a quick victory by capturing kyiv and deposing the government. instead , he failed completely and now he is stuck in this war of attrition that cannot be won in able and if he cannot win it, then the end is near, many analysts in washington began to say and write that they consider the possibility that the entire russian federation will fall apart but the debate in washington has changed dramatically before. they said something like oh, we will not provoke putin to escalate this war and he can use nuclear weapons and then even attack nato territory and

now russia will collapse as a result of this failed war so i think that putin's goal to survive in this war. to do this, he hopes that if he throws enough russian soldiers into battle, even if tens and hundreds of thousands die, it will not matter because in the end many will die ukrainians will suffer, the economy will suffer, the civilian population will not be able to take it anymore and ukraine will finally capitulate. putin thinks he will find a way to declare victory, but this will not happen. in the end he will say something like ok, we really won, we showed the west that we are not going to just stand by and let them take ukraine from us, we destroyed the nazis, whoever putin

thinks they are in ukraine, we wiped out the west nose and held some territory about whatever tiny piece of ukraine he talked about passing it off as a victory and then he will go further if he survives and think how to return to ukraine and another way in the future but he will not succeed because russia will be incredibly weak at the end of his fiasco in this war and in the united states and in particular in the headquarters of nato they understand what is happening in reality on the territory of russia, in particular it is about the formation of their military groups and what is happening in the kremlin plus or minus there have accurate information, i do not have access to the secret information that i had before, but judging by the recordings of the conversations of russian soldiers on the battlefield when they call their families or talk to their comrades, i believe that nato headquarters and washington have

a deep understanding of the terrible moral the state of the russian military and the fact that even the wagnerians complain that they are being used as cannon fodder, if they take a step back they get a bullet in the back. as in stalin's time , everyone knows this, we constantly hear about it in the media and based on my previous experience working for the government, there is no doubt that the us and its nato allies know much more about what is happening in the russian army, what is happening inside the kremlin is much more difficult to understand because it is not easy to intercept relevant messages, it is not easy to penetrate the inner circles at the highest levels of any government, and even more so the russian one through espionage through agents who can visit and pass on information, but

it is certainly easy to understand the pressure putin is under now, i hear from my own environment that now even at the level of ministers in russia not to mention the oligarchs there is deep indignation against putin putin you have ruined our life we will never be able to live like this i lived before you are destroying the reputation of russia i keep hearing about this state of affairs from various people even from the major powers that's why i think there is a deep awareness of how serious the problem putin is in. that's why i took such a hard line in this interview, as i said in response to your previous question. i think the goals

putin has changed and now he just wants to survive. unfortunately, i have to end our conversation with the next one . i am grateful, dear sir, to the embassy of russia for this extremely meaningful and interesting conversation. former director of european and eurasian affairs at the national security council of the united states thank you very much ihor yakovenko, a sociologist, ex-deputy of the state duma , is now in exile. ihor yakovenko is joining our broadcast. kudos to ukraine , mr. ihor i congratulate you as a hero university well, the head of the russian federation urgently went to the anniversary of the battle of stalingrad in volgograd, which was urgently renamed to stalingrad, they even installed a bust of stalin there, we understand that it may not have any specific military consequences or any specific decisions that putin will make in this regard, but this very clearly outlines putin 's stalinist trajectory of vision of the situation and

further movement, you know, uh, in general , putin's demands are made. here are such historical parallels, they are, in fact, uh, with one sides are ridiculous, but on the other hand, if they are held, they are very unprofitable for putin, because the battle of stalingrad was really, um, well, one of the largest battles in the history of mankind . equally from the side of the soviet union and from the countries of the third reich, half a million from each country is one of putin's henchmen yevgeny prigozhin allowed himself such a preposterous

statement that compared to the solidar stalingrad is resting, i don't know if putin or prigozhina are being asked questions from volgograd, isn't it a shame that they think stalingrad is resting compared to solidar, but the most important thing is that the second most important thing is that there is a demand , somehow, to pour into stalin's boots , they bring for putin, after all the fact that stalin is like a monkey miracle, but they bring to the fact that putin, firstly, these dogs fail, and secondly, there are indeed parallels that are quite dangerous for putin , because if putin is talking about stalingradskobytsy, then he is definitely not stalin and rather hitler. and i believe that eh means, first of all, in relation to and from the point of view that putin is the aggressor in this case, but secondly, this situation in the world. the fact is that after the battle of stalingrad, there was absolute support from the entire

civilized world what happened was really great respect at that moment for the soviet union and for the behavior of the soviet troops. so you are from the united states in america, there were very warm words of admiration from the country's president and public figures the usa had very warm eastern words from churchill and other politicians of great britain, france , and other countries today. putin from the countries of the western countries, in the same countries that enthusiastically perceived the victory in stalingrad . this is the same munich conference at which in 2007 putin spoke with his famous munich speech , russia today, and they did not invite him to it because russia today is

a conference on international security россии сегодня is a source of the very main source of danger in the world, that's why putin was not invited there , and i'm saying i agree with you, a very characteristic moment that can be used to describe the transition of volgograd to stalingrad, so to speak, is fear. it's not surprising, that is, they turned off the internet completely, everything was blocked by the russian special services this means that putin is experiencing immediate fear and the second moment is characteristic of this , the coven than zhukov, not stalin, did not count on the lives of their soldiers, and maybe this is precisely why they and the parallels, so to speak, with battles in donbas, all the surrounding fields are covered with bodies, it is about the bodies of russians from mobilized people. they even manage to call them insultingly kuzmich . well, yes, indeed, putin is trying

to reproduce this famous zhukovsky method of brewing, er, brewing the enemy with human affairs, well, he perceives people as cannon fodder, yes indeed, this is the case, but the concept is some of the essential differences , which are practically identical to this, on the contrary , it reproduces the situation of the world war . they are going to attack the enemy, the enemy was really on their own land, and today they are trying to explain. why is there such a massive mass exodus from mobilization, yes, about three times as many people are fleeing from mobilization, but why, so to speak

, are sent to the military enlistment offices, and the reason is very simple, despite all this hysterical propaganda, everyone understands that it is not ukrainians tanks they are going nakiye natoskie soldiers there is no obschet er-e means the city of the city of russia and that's why well, it's obvious that no one is in russia, it's just obvious, but any person can go out and look out the window, go out into the street and understand that there is no nato or ukrainian soldier and therefore, the motives for going to war are reduced to kg, so to speak, the reason is the horizon, so let’s say the first horizon is a violent mobilization , they just arrived, shortened it and sent him first to the military enlistment office, then to the front, and the second is money, if he chooses attention to that

how is this mobilization company advertised? well, at first there were some patriotic mothers, then and now they have completely removed these motives . in some way, please terrorize, you always have a way out , sign the tract, and you are happy, satisfied, er, completely freed from debt , and you are leaving. there is a result of this kind that becomes the main thing, well, let me introduce myself. what exactly in this way, from the point of view, with the help of a, so to speak, money, eh, stalin was sending people to the front , it is impossible, that is, for how long is the situation with mirror here, putin's fascism acts as a role model

of the third reich, then all this comparison is completely impossible . well, as for the tactics of flooding with bodies, yes, it remains the same with one more significant difference, which is that eh well , first of all, there was a resource in the stalinist ussr after all, even more so than stalinism, this is usterenska in the ussr, there were the same allies who are helping ukraine today, that is, the whole mirror has changed, not someone attacked russia, but russia attacked the whole of ukraine, and they are not helping anyone great britain, the united states of america, france, other countries are helping, namely, the enemy of russia

, the enemy of putin, ukraine . for example, dooms putin's russia to defeat and the battle of stalingrad, if brothers historical analogies were not yet ahead, i doubt that this is the battle of stalingrad, when the russian fascist army will be destroyed, it will happen when ukraine receives nato weapons and goes on the offensive. i hope что это произојед этой весной и сейчас скренир социальный speaking about the number of losses suffered by the russian interventionists, well, here i inadvertently mention such a hegelian formula. so when this number will change to quality, in particular, when a large internal feedback will begin in russia

, when mothers and relatives will begin to count not money . these shipments of 200 from the ukrainian front in russia will cause some kind of social explosion . some kind of mass insight will occur. россии er-er well, the next problem will change here, those who have seen through, they have already seen through a-and rumors that russians massively support this er-er this war, they are very strong on the streets , the main mass of russians are people who just perfectly understand what kind of things

the words even just said there in i don't know in a public place medush soya vnutri uzhem zheny they will lead to repression that was actually speaking, there was a case when people were just there in a restaurant among owls discussing this war and , er, so to speak, immediately broke in after being tipped off show masks were put on put them on the floor face down and put on handcuffs a girl in the toilet in a public toilet cubicle inside she wrote something putin so to speak well and then obscene language and accordingly calculated on the cameras and what and they came to her so uh, in general totalitarian the fascist regime has never in the history of mankind been overthrown with the help of internal protests here, uh, clearly. you mentioned prigozhina, so he clearly calls a completely different process that will accelerate the fall of putin's regime, understand that this

the regime will be in parallel with the fact that the regime will tolerate the situation on the battlefield, this is what is called a transition, the transfer of war, an imbilistic war, and a mafia war, because now the privatization of the army is going on, what a beauty , this is a generally pathological phenomenon , this is the privatization of the army, the transformation of the army into a private one with the support of the state prigozhin is a man who created a private military company, we are fully financed by the state today, his army is approximately 20% of the total er, the russian army at the front well, not all of the russian army, but the one that is at the front, and these are the most capable parts, this is a completely pathological situation, and of such private military companies, well, less, but in general, there are actually about 20 of kadyrov's private armies, today they are private the army in eh tymchenko, putin's wallet is a private

army already in the puck itself, this is a shocking defense minister creating a private army, although he practically has er, created by the russian state once upon a time, the army's withdrawal is a preparation for a mafia war, practically all political entities that claim separate pieces of property in russia, they are now trying to get around private armies so that they look after putin, they look through putin for over his shoulder, they look at the future where putin will not be, i think that as a result of a serious military defeat as a result of such a ukrainian stalingrad that will lead to serious and complete defeat of the russian-fascist troops. i think that the federal power will be so weakened

that it is already putin and his so-called second support of the number of the federal service . this empire will collapse , which has very strong internal central tendencies, and this is also known . the war for the division of russia will continue to tear russia to pieces. stupid is beautiful within russia. that's why this scenario is presented. well, at least probably, but there is another such scenario, which is called entanglement with the führer, and the competition for access to the body begins, respectively, the competition for the right to nominate certain possible successors, in particular, we see how

medvedev has revived now , he tries on some french clothes and writes some nonsense , you know, well, people don't write like that from bodun , but still, he is still being expelled , and there is, as it were, a strengthening of the patrusov clan patrushev's son seems to be prophesied or offered maybe for the position of the same prime minister, you know, it's a thing that all this rallying around the führer well, it concerns some representatives of the top. here they are trying to rally around the whirlwind because the political influence in russia today is inversely proportional the distance from putin's physical body , i.e. proximity to putin means political influence, that's why prigozhina kadyrov got that kind of influence, because

they all have different reasons putin is close enough. but this , first of all, concerns the exclusion of the top. as for the population, there is no flattening around erora for many reasons , because, again, the putin regime, in principle, differs from the slavic and hitler regimes in that - firstly, there are no ideologies that pay, secondly, there is no mobilization resource , i will introduce not mobilization for war, but in the whole state of social mobilization , there is no such resource because there is no party, no, no analogy with the nazi party there is no party or communist party in putin's russia, that is, the country is based on completely different economic, social, and ideological spiritual foundations, so there is no unity around the führer today in russia

, what about such caricature figures as the bear mentioned there and further well, putin needs miliev to exclude a person who does not have any absolutely political weight at all, that is, this is a unique phenomenon. i do not know a person in the history of russia who could for a long period simply is at the top of russian power, literally at the top of russian power, was the president, was the prime minister, a high example, and he would not have created his own team , in fact, he did not even manage his secretary, i just know this because in the 1990s, you were with this man , i’m asking there the future is the general secretary with a journalist in russia to solve some issues of the media, the person does not solve anything, it is possible to be at a meeting with him , make some decision, sign some

paper after these papers, where do you disappear to everything smeyutsya when you turn around and start asking a-a youth about what was such a solution as well, what do you dare, what is such a solution, this is another decoration, therefore, the teddy bear is dried , caricatured figures , this is the pea jester . putin on someone controlled by the chekist transit no, it's you, it's such a request, it can be done , but it's er, it's so, so to speak, history will definitely not end in success for a very simple reason at the moment well , that's the peculiarity of putin's dictatorship the fact is that she is personalistic and here a lot is tied to putin, just take it and switch it, let’s say it’s on the son of the old man, about which many people say it

’s impossible because there are different clans that only the supreme arbiter of which somehow regulates the relationship between these clans and does not allow them to clash directly in this clan around the kremlin dirty request to switch here these are all ties to the second person, ah, well, no, this is excluded, this will not happen . that is, yes, there will definitely be such a demand if there is putin. what will happen, they will try to do this, but again, a single filler will no longer be possible. what kind of demand? well

, how do we call the collective leadership of something new? probability of because this transit is a controlled transit, as they said, it will turn into a mafia war, therefore, most likely, if putin is either eliminated or dies a natural death, the country will definitely fall into the trap. this is a permanent state of russia, but they are all a periodic state of russia. not only not only the 17th window of this is the first russian revolution and the october coup, in fact, these are classic examples of turmoil, and this is precisely such turmoil awaits russia after the inevitable defeat here in this ukrainian war, thank you very much, dear mr. igor, for this extremely interesting and honest conversation, and i want to remind our tv viewers that igor yakovenko, a sociologist, former member of the russian state duma, who is currently in exile, is currently in exile, the time of our program has run out