[000:00:00;00] no, but in general, it is always an expert expert environment, what can be done more, more actively, far-sighted, once again, second, in general, i would rate it rather as positive . although there are principled things that need uh , well, the main principle, you know, is that, after all , a person must be a professional well, in order to fulfill some of the tasks set before her, to be non-toxic, and here i mean that there are some, well, those, i do not say. now in power, but also some questions to well, it is difficult for me now to operate here with specifics. because we will be forced to review individual personalities and their places in certain positions. well, ours is, so to speak, this already peak-full corruption that we must fight, and we must fight it as actively as possible, more and more persistently . that is, it is probably necessary. but are we fighting corruption and are we doing everything

you know the rest of what you said. i believe that there are fundamental changes in ukraine . some things, even corruption, are no longer possible, but we need to do more to clearly find out why here, too. topic uh, it is better to play it safe here, do more, install more safeguards, make corruption schemes impossible, expose them, punish them more strictly, clearly for social resonance, we all understand that jurisprudence, justice does not work quickly, but it is really necessary for the public, not that ukrainians are bloodthirsty, it is really necessary to show that the justice system works for you punish corruption, they simply dismiss them and bring them from one position to another, all of this clearly could have been more relevant to these issues, which we can all write off new ones

there is at most one question that i did not discuss with you in advance. i just read about it literally before the broadcast of the program. things, and there will simply be some attempts to try to close all the holes or what russia is using to bypass the nine previous packages. please tell me, mr. maksym . there is no opportunities and that europe is weakening, it’s a difficult question, unfortunately i didn’t read this post by the politician, because today is monday, if in most universities, it’s the day of all kinds of meetings , that’s why i didn’t watch, you know, i generally like the idea of ​​closing holes, well, in particular , it was just not what is a direct hint a would be reported to georgia well, we heard about the important prospects of resuming air traffic with russia about the possible circumvention of sanctions that may already be happening here, go check, you know, because

friends, the situation is very difficult, so you know closing the holes if it is true it will be in this package i researched the issue i will say right away this is the right decision about whether europe has exhausted itself we have to admit that a certain tension is increasing in europe i am already behind the hump on hungary who is pedaling this topic what about the last ones against russia for all of us it's bad and you can't do it, unfortunately, it is , it's definitely. i want to believe that europe has not exhausted itself yet, but the closing of the holes may be a signal that let's carry out what we have already established, let's see the result in order to put pressure on russia and probably more, and if it is reinterpreted in a positive way, it could be that we are currently closing the holes and fully implementing what we have already done due to the fact that there is greater trust in the ukrainian military force, you understand that there will be no europe, now he won't be able to tell us, listen, he can't have so many sanctions, you and the russians are ready for sanctions, sit down for negotiations and

agree on something peacefully, we can use this as an argument to the fact that listen, well, you have already introduced the station, which they closed down and now we really need to arm ourselves as much as possible with especially heavy weapons in order for you to liberate our territories and this. by the way, the closing of the sanctions holes that exist in the sectional packages, this may be a system to the point that no one is going to remove them, and russia is touching, both negotiations must be completed immediately connected with the removal or weakening of the sectional regime, and this is absolutely wrong , because even the next day after the victory, these sanctions must remain, it must be a slow process, because russia, the putin regime as it exists now must be formed by changes in russia cannot remain in such a background as, well, in such a form as it is now uh, and at the same time because there will be danger over ukraine on this europe at this price and for this we need sanctions for this we need to strengthen them yes well and the answer to your question, i want to believe that europe has not yet exhausted itself in matters of selection, but they believe that we can do more militarily, i also want to believe that , and that we will do more militarily

, i am even sure of it maxim last questions for you today. please tell me your professional expert opinion. in the west, particularly in europe, the leaders of european countries repeatedly spoke about this , nato secretary general jens stoutenberg, because europe does not want to become a party to the conflict in the russian war in ukraine, and therefore they will help ukraine they will do their best to provide military, humanitarian, and financial support , but they will not take a direct part in the war, this is truly a red line that european leaders will not cross under any circumstances, even if, again, they are running ahead to this last question, uh, how do i want to ask today mateo shmarovetsky, also before the broadcast, i read about it and said that it is possible that the war in ukraine could spill over into the third world war, yes, is it really this is a red line, what kind of line the leaders of european countries do not want

and will not stand for any -what are the conditions to be crossed or can it happen, as in the case of first promising and then giving us tanks, you know yuriy, here you really deciphered the key points of what is considered an escalation of the conflict - this is the phrase escalation, they are already starting to annoy me certainly if we ukrainians go to our country to liberate our territory, the military action is intensifying, this is already an escalation in such a week to say that there will be some kind of third world war during which there will be a nuclear apocalypse that russia regularly hints at or threatens, then this is also a completely correct understanding of what nature is i apologize for the third world level, we see definitely certain biological confrontations between russia and the west, by the way, i believe that even the concept of the west is abused by russia because they use a collective measure so that you will be for my image of myself, but i cannot predict positively whether we will have a military formation on the territory of ukraine

, regular armies of other countries, this is how it is said, whether in poland, send your soldiers to fight shoulder to shoulder with ukrainians against russian aggression, for this we do not know, it is difficult to predict looks at the future, but the question of the world war is what , i'm sorry, russia is now realizing its ambitions, so that this does not happen, russia must be defeated, and how will it help, let's see it's hard for me to be wary, but i'm convinced that we are ready to support even more than they support the recording. thank you , mr. maksym. thank you for taking part in the program . be sure to treat yourself and don't start the disease. well, i will remind our viewers that there was a direct communication maksym yakovlev, head of the department of international relations of the national university of kyiv-mohyla academy and director of the school of political analytics of the same university, before introducing my

new guest, i obviously have to say what we have with voting we asked you the following question on youtube when ukraine becomes a member of the european union there are three answers as usual soon it will take a little time and 27% believe that your option will soon be 58%, well it will take a little time your option is 15%, 200 people voted thank you and join the vote and now we are being watched on a separate youtube channel for the program sweet during the war with 10 six people also join us there is still enough time for more than 20 minutes to discuss a very an important topic and i am ready to introduce my next guest

, this is ivan preobrazhensky, candidate of political sciences - an expert in central and eastern europe is putin the russians for a holy war and beyond? here i am not even talking about a holy war against ukrainian nazism, as putin often says, but against ukraine itself, which according to him should not have been because i am here they ask me, i read about russian factories in telegram , and i have the impression that now there is a wave in russia, and it is precisely a consecrated war in which every russian must take part, well , the wave is definitely here, there are absolutely rules after putin took a break where- around november, he did not make any significant announcements and did not speak anywhere. he is now slowly warming up , obviously warming up before a big

speech. meeting, which will gather all representatives of the russian asking class and he will address them. well, and actually to the population, most likely, again, this will be a signal for the beginning of a new russian offensive, if they manage to prepare for this moment the army, but most likely, again , the speech will be postponed, so when in i will be ready then it will appear until it is considered that it is somewhere on february 22, before the anniversary of the russian aggression against ukraine , respectively, and on the so-called defender of the fatherland day, which in russia it is celebrated in the tradition since the soviet period on february 23, but the question is that the wave goes unconditionally and on the one hand there is a reference to the holy war on the other hand there

is rational as they think yes rational within the framework of russian propaganda and i will say one informational thing and in general in principled space, the scheme by which they explain again why they started this war, why they started a full-scale aggression against ukraine we would like the same military actions, but not the conditional territory of belgorod or there, i don’t know the krasnodar territory , that is, it is about the fact that they are asking to convince the russians , it turned out that they are judging everything because of the logical studies they did and in general the study of public opinions in the favorite possible ways that this is the only version that more or less fits the needs of a significant part of russians and is widely spread at the front

among mobilized russians who are there they did not understand why they are there at all, but they die easily, so people are not ready. instead of running from the front , unfortunately, many of them begin to come up with explanations that would be understandable to them . for the so-called ultra-patriotic well, that is, in fact, this is the kind of fascist , the fascist audience opens the door to which this war was driven, the initial message is holy war for everyone else, this is the story that if we had not come there, nato soldiers would have been there by now. roughly

speaking, yes, my love. february 24, full-scale aggression , full-scale offensive. he also speaks russian territories. well, nobody knows putin. i think that now i am even more of a human being. finally, during the time of the covid -19 isolation, he frowned. and even those who know him closely can hardly say now that they know him. years well, that’s what they say, even they couldn’t predict in any way now. as for his determination to do anything, he has always been known as a man. let’s say it’s possible

, that is, he has definitely insanely and completely plans to destroy ukraine, but he’s ready всегда остановится на том что сейчас можно выздать и производный он человек. these are the gradual steps of the gradual training of everyone, as in russia, it was done in politics in the internal training of causing waves, according to the principle of the idea, it will destroy ukraine as a state, absolutely not going anywhere he disappears from the territories that he has already occupied, he is clearly ready to stop for a while, this can be seen later in the message that the kremlin gives regarding potential negotiations in some i am in your fiance a-a cease-fire but it is the conditions of the kremlin here we are going to start an attack of thought i think it is very simple it will be relatively successful where it is we

will be happy after this well you will establish a-a here these here are our successes here is such a position the kremlin, respectively, and as for his ideas for the time being, but there are several options here, it is better to listen to military experts than to me, but judging by this political message, i am asking to judge precisely based on the politics of military planning, because i still not a military expert, to put it mildly, this is about the fact that they are trying to stop military supplies to ukraine in some way, weapons are to the allies, how are they going to do it, that they are trying to make a wedge from belarus, a massive missile attack on or in the western regions of ukraine i can't say it here, but the message is clear, i understand mr. preobrazhensky, you are not a military person, i was asking specifically about politics, about politics, eh

, interestingly, can putin have a thought in his head, in which no one can get an idea about the fact that it is necessary to return even western ukraine because western ukraine should rightfully belong to the russian federation as well as the entire second part of ukraine . the kremlin - it did not merge, but regardless of them , they were pushed through, including through foreign intelligence , that they were not going to fully capture, press and unite ukraine, this plan of the conditional ussr was like a backup. the moment he left for the first plan, then he left again, there is no option, if not this or d, but option a is to plant his people, he understands that they will occupy a huge country without a-a

pain, the number of laborers and local administrations is unrealistic, even in those territories that they they have already occupied what number of collaborators, uh, they attracted precisely in the power structure, they rely on local criminal mafia clans wherever they can, they try to come to an agreement because, in fact, there are no cities to hold resources for a million people there are not many millions of resources, they were able to erase mariupol from the face of the earth. in essence, but kharkiv could not, according to the military force. they took more than one large city . the russian army is not in a position to do so. which in case of any development of military events there, which will lead to the fact that it will be difficult for the city to resist

, the peaceful population will be ready to agree to the russian collaborators, they will sit down and start the condition agreed to manage, that is, here the schemes of the ego most likely remain , and the old one has not been pulled out of mothballs for a long time. in the near future or what does putin think? what prospects do people have in ukraine in order to return to power ?

in the next few years, will there be changes or if you paraphrase, well, they will literally add one word to a song known in the soviet union. it seems that putin's regime in russia itself is quite stable and we have a real military defeat. if this happens this year and if it is not so total that the army will simply run to russia and the army itself how was it a little more than 100 years ago, we will become one of the drivers of some kind of revolution or social riots. as far as i understand, it was agreed with the allies that this will not go to the territory of russia, and then it will be severe internal

repression during the period there, they are already tightening up here this year, even compared to what was most likely in the middle of the year will become even tougher, well, the restoration of the death of each, most likely, their retention of power by any force at any cost , approximately the way it looked in belarus, the difference is that in belarus there was putin who could help , and putin will have to cope with his own forces, how long will such a regime give rise to this question well, what how it sits is not very comfortable on the one hand on the other hand experience shows that it is essentially totalitarian , or as some colleagues say , authoritarian personal regimes with strict they can be held by a dictatorship for quite a long time, and society by itself is usually not able to tell them without any help , either from the part of the party, or you are trying and

the security forces who betray their leader, or without external help . military interventions in russia, and everyone directly talks about it, respectively, the only hope, that's why everyone likes this topic so much , they will discuss it. split up in russia, but the prerequisites for it, unfortunately, are not visible. well unfortunately, mr. about pervoobrazhensky, are russia afraid of supplies from the west of ukraine with long-range missiles that can reach crimea, and how do you actually perceive dmitry medvedev's statement that if ukraine tries to bomb crimea with these missiles, the territory of crimea and the crimean bridge, then the whole other part of ukraine even zapadnaya ignites this dreadlock, is

she an alcoholic, or still, i think that this is a rather clearly formulated message focused on some specialty of the healing of ukraine and on western ones, or you who are afraid of russia's use of nuclear weapons. russia traditionally constantly exploits this fear, especially among people of the older generation who remember the confrontation of the cold war, and the bear meter , respectively. nuclear weapons, and putin does not make senseless steps, he

is not a fanatic, after all. it was not used at the beginning of the war, when he had hope, now i doubt that he has hope for a quick victory, he himself openly says that he is going to fight for a long time, so the use of nuclear weapons is absolutely pointless, it will cause such a powerful response. or actions on the part of the western community that most likely nato will be forced to enter the war, this is what the kremlin does not want in any case. and therefore i believe that this is an empty horror story, everything they can do, they have already shown but they will launch, i don't know, a hundred rockets from the fact that they have 300 rockets left in their warehouses, and with other simpler soviet rockets, they can shoot very large quantities with low accuracy, and sooner at the civilian population than at military objects , because it is precisely difficult to it is enough to get there specifically, they are not for this, they

are for the purpose of carrying a nuclear charge. well , he still carries a nuclear charge, mr. preobrazhensky. well, you already said that putin does not make meaningless steps, but all the same, that is, he is always calculating ahead, he thinks how it will be, well, all the same, he is afraid of something, in your opinion, from what kind of dreams can putin wake up in the morning in a cold sweat, well, it is obvious that he is a person takoy psychopathicheskogo sejsaj parkovaya nemere what kind of a scholar was there before , i don't know the composition. he is clearly very strong emotionally, he goes from one state to another because of the way even the russian army behaved. the russian right -wing class is not difficult to model how he, for example, behaved after the loss of kharkiv

oblast, when he had a mistress at the beginning, then a wild fury, then an attack on ukraine, the same with kherson at the beginning, it is difficult for him to come to terms with it, then, ah, the spaniards, he goes into a state of aggression, aggression against his own, including then the place, namely , revenge. we saw that this is not a rational action. and this is exactly that. this is such a malicious revenge . the same was approximately the same for the birthday of vladimir zelensky, that is, there are many dates. it is clear from the persons that we are talking about personal or non-personal addresses, as it were, to the ukrainian people. together simply, and accordingly, any military defeat, any harsh activity of the western allies

, even the transfer of, for example, tanks days, putin would most likely fall into a state of panic, he was in a state of panic . of putin's behavior, scientists will be afraid, then warm up , then the lord will attack hard if he receives resistance, the basis will be afraid, then again , he will save himself. such moments are precisely physical , he behaves like a classic dictator paranoia .

сегодня tell me please for me it still remains a mystery m.m. the secret passivity of the russians who and the legs of which i even said so in the countryside can live in a terribly inhumane way, but at the same time continue to talk about the fact that putin is the best president putin has done so much for us and we will do everything for the fact that only putin remained the president of russia, why is it explained quite simply, literally the other day my colleagues also asked me about the polls that putin's trust is decreasing, but not significantly because of the russian polls it is clear that the next judge can simply be oriented, well, it doesn’t matter, here is a number, so that we can fix what is possible to talk about it, it is not difficult to talk about it, because any ratings trust the police state - this is a rating without an internship , how many people do not see any alternatives to vladimir putin, and accordingly, they will

support any the current government how only these people who, in principle, in the russian state do not trust him , are afraid that the majority will grow the alternative of their behavior will be changed immediately no, but for this, a very serious social change must occur, just so that the information somehow must be restored to the systems that were . much more confidence was instilled than any official propaganda . propaganda was perceived as a priori as a liar in russia in modern times .

they set up a system of prostitutes, they convinced everyone that this is a supposedly ukrainian desire in our country for 20-25 seconds. okay, in short, the situation is such that russians do not believe that putin can be replaced by someone, accordingly, they will declare that they support him, as they would they did not treat him for an outside observer to care unfortunately, this is equal to support , this is a pity. thank you , mr. preobrazhensky, for participating in my program. of central and eastern europe , they talked about russia and about putin, but it is necessary to talk about it sometimes. well, we need to sum up slowly.

about putin and russia and on youtube we asked you a question when ukraine becomes a member of the european union three answers soon it will take a little time your option is so soon 29% of people who watch us on youtube think it will take a little time 60% well, your option is 11%. well, i will remind you that you can watch your option only after the program ends and it will be published on youtube. and by the way , thousands of people have watched us, and now 1854 people are watching on youtube precisely on the channel created for our program . but at this point time is relentless and i have to finish the program. thank you all very much for watching. join us next week, because next week there will be new guests and there will be new topics. don't switch now